Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: yuppa
a reply to: Bishop2199

Our response should be glass their butts. I imagine CHina might decide to kill putin and take over russia if that happens.

If the Russians want to set off nukes in Siberia the only ones it would effect is Russia and China. So this would be a really stupid move.
Be like shooting yourself in the foot because you broke your toe. Russian media can't be that dumb can they?

originally posted by: dragonridr

originally posted by: yuppa
a reply to: Bishop2199

Our response should be glass their butts. I imagine CHina might decide to kill putin and take over russia if that happens.

If the Russians want to set off nukes in Siberia the only ones it would effect is Russia and China. So this would be a really stupid move.
Be like shooting yourself in the foot because you broke your toe. Russian media can't be that dumb can they?

Either you didn't read the threat quoted here, or you think the US doesn't have any satellites that would be affected. I assume you didn't read it?

originally posted by: Bishop2199
Putin Ally Suggests Nuclear Explosion Over Russia
"She said that Russia could "conduct a thermonuclear explosion hundreds of kilometers above our own territory somewhere in Siberia," and that would not impact those on the ground.

Rather than describing the intention of such a move as one to scare the West, she said its main effect would be to "destroy all radio electronics" and affect satellites, cameras and phones."

The US made a detonation in 1962 at a similar altitude, about the same altitude as the ISS orbits today, called Starfish Prime, and it destroyed a couple of satellites apparently from the residual radiation rather than the initial blast.

Why the U.S. once set off a nuclear bomb in space

As Earth’s magnetic field caught ionized radiation from the Starfish Prime test, it created a new artificial radiation belt that was stronger and longer lasting than scientists had predicted. This unexpected “Starfish belt,” which lingered for at least 10 years, destroyed Telstar 1, the first satellite to broadcast a live television signal, and Ariel-1, Britain’s first satellite.

“It came as a surprise how bad it was, and how long it lasted, and how damaging it was to satellites that flew through that area and died,” Sibeck says.

If they detonate it at the ISS altitude, even Russia's own cosmonauts in the ISS could be affected by the radiation as the ISS flies through the artificial radiation belt, in addition to numerous satellites since a lot more satellites are in orbit now compared to 1962.

Anyway it's not going to happen, it's just another saber rattling threat. If Russia used tactical nukes, the response of NATO would be conventional, probably some kind of direct involvement, not to "glass them" or escalate with more nukes. Putin can barely hold his own against Ukraine and is even losing a little ground; he definitely doesn't want any battles directly with NATO. I don't know if NATO would go that far for a space detonation but I could see them sending Russia a bill for the damaged or destroyed satellites at least. The bill would have to be paid with seized assets, because Russia probably wouldn't pay it otherwise. They still have the $10 billion worth of leased planes they stole and didn't pay for, don't they?

7 October Update

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 7 and reportedly advanced in both directions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces were partially successful east of Andriivka (8km southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian rear areas and port infrastructure on the night of October 6-7. Ukrainian sources, including the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command, reported that Russian forces launched Onyx cruise missiles from occupied Crimea at Chernomorsk, Odesa Oblast; and Poltava Oblast Head Dmytro Lunin stated that Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Myrhorod, Poltava Oblast.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on October 7.

More at URL above.

Cheers

8 October Update

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 8. Geolocated footage published on October 8 shows that Ukrainian forces made limited gains north of Novoprokopivka (14km south of Orikhiv), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also advanced near Kopani (10km southwest of Orikhiv).

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, western Donetsk Oblast, and on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border on October 8 and reportedly advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

October 8th Oryx confirmed vehicle and equipment losses:

Russia: 53 (including 15 tanks and 10 artillery systems)
Ukraine: 9 (including 0 tanks and 1 artillery system)

Losses for both sides detailed lists shown at about 10 minutes in this video:
Ukraine gets more ground

If you want to see how some of the Russian losses occurred, this video shows how Russia made a flank attack on Ukraine near the southwest of Robotyne, and Ukraine was fully prepared for that attack, so the Russians had devastating losses.

08 Oct: UKRAINIANS DISMANTLE A RUSSIAN FLANK ATTACK IN MERE MINUTES

9 October Update

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and reportedly advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on October 9 amid reports of deteriorating weather conditions in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv), and near Klishchiivka (5km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).

A Russian milblogger and a Ukrainian military observer both independently reported that elements of the Russian 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) advanced several hundred meters in a contested ”gray zone” in the Marfopil-Chervone (6km southeast of Hulyaipole) direction on October 9.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on October 9.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Has someone just attacked a gas pipeline in Finland?

As we have been reporting this afternoon, Finland believes there may have been deliberate damage to its gas pipeline from Estonia.
An unusual drop in pressure was observed in the Balticconnector undersea pipeline shortly before 2am on Sunday, according to Finnish daily newspaper Iltalehti.
Finland's Prime Minister Petteri Orpo is holding a news conference on the apparent "attack" at the moment, and says it is "likely" the leak has been caused by "external action".

news.sky.com...

Could turn serious if Finland claim Russia did this.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Surely Russia wouldn't be that stupid?

That would just be deliberate provocation for little reward.

But then again.....?

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
Could turn serious if Finland claim Russia did this.

Even if it was proven, there is very little Finland could do. Best sit back and watch Russia fall apart.

a reply to: paraphi

Wonder if someone is going to come in and blame US, NATO, UK?

The nordstream pipeline attack seemed hard to prove with allegations and disinfo all over.
This one is a possible attack on a shiny new NATO members infrastructure which technicaly could be used to invoke article 5,although that will be unlikely as it will be difficult to prove.
I wonder if any ships were monitored in the area?

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
9 October Update
"Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on October 9."

That doesn't seem to mention the apparent Russian "suicide mission" about 20km southwest of Donetsk.

Ukraine has held the town of Novomohylevka SW of Donetsk since the beginning of the war. The fields surrounding Novomohylevka are very densely mined. About 2 weeks ago Russians attacked Novomohylevka from the north/northeast direction and had some de-mining equipment to deal with the mines, but the attack wasn't successful. After that, Ukraine found their de-mining equipment using drones, and destroyed both vehicles using HIMARS.

For some reason, on Oct 9, Russia decided to try attacking Novomohylevka again but this time from the south/southeast, and this time since their de-mining equipment had been destroyed, they attempted it apparently without the demining equipment. Can anybody guess what happened when Russians moved into the densely mined field without any de-mining equipment? They only made it 200 meters of the 3200 meters they needed to go to get to the Ukrainian positions in Novomohylevka. They had to have known about the mines, why did they go anyway without de-mining? Russians did set the fields on fire, apparently in an effort to make the (unburied) mines easier to see.

There's some drone screencaps of the damaged or destroyed vehicles in thie Russian offensive, and of the cluster munitions fired on the Russian soldiers fleeing their disabled vehicles:

09 Oct: INSTANT CHECKMATE. Russians Make a Move. GET DECIMATED IMMEDIATELY

10 October Update

Russian forces launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 9 ...

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on October 10.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
10 October Update

"Russian forces launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 9 ..."

This video talks about Avdiivka getting attacked from 7 different attack vectors, by thousands of Russian troops and numerous armored vehicles, a "blitzkrieg" type assault. It claims that Russians experienced their highest one-day losses so far. Ukraine had to pull back a bit in some areas under the assaults, but so far it didn't get encircled apparently, as the Russians had hoped. Avdiivka is in a fairly deep salient so encirclement is not out of the question if Russia throws enough troops into the meat grinder, but ISW says the quality and training of the troops used there is not very good, so it looks like Russia just going to lose a lot of soldiers to take little ground, which Ukraine will probably get back.

10 Oct: SUICIDE OPERATION. Russians SET RECORD LOSSES IN 1 DAY.


Here's another update from Denys on the Avdiivka attack by Russia in the early part of the video. He's comparing it to the Vuhledar disaster where Russia lost over 130 armored vehicles in their failed attack there last year. He said Russia already lost over 30 armored vehicles in the Avdiivka attack which is ongoing now.

Update from Ukraine | Ruzzia Goes all in to Encircle Avdiivka. Ukraine crashed them


ISW says the Russian strategy in attacking Avdiivka may be to draw some of Ukraine's troops away from the southern front, and it's entirely possible Ukraine might send reinforcements to Avdiivka. Whether the reinforcements will come from the southern front or somewhere else, I don't know.

11 October Update

Russian forces launched localized attacks towards Avdiivka after intensive artillery preparation of the battlefield in the early hours of October 10, and geolocated footage from October 10 and 11 confirms that Russian troops advanced southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne and northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Krasnohorivka.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in both sectors of the front on October 11. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces were successful east of Klishchiivka and Andriivka near Bakhmut.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yeah, if reports are accurate, it sounds like a tank battalion and motor rifle battalion got smoked in the attack.

Land mines have no friends.

Cheers

12 October Update

Russian forces likely launched a significant and ongoing offensive effort around Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast on October 10. . . . Ukrainian military observers framed Russian offensive operations against Avdiivka as a “major attack” and noted that Russian forces used an unusually high number of armored vehicles in combat.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in both sectors of the front on October 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved some unspecified successes east of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and east of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes across Ukraine, targeting port infrastructure in southern Ukraine and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast on the night of October 11 to 12. Ukrainian official military sources reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 28 of the 33 Shahed-131/136 drones.

More at URL above.

Cheers

13 October Update

Ongoing Russian offensive operations throughout the Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast area on October 13 reportedly faced setbacks around the city. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continued to attack areas north and south of Avdiivka, and geolocated footage published on October 12 and 13 indicates that Russian forces advanced south of Krasnohorivka (5km north of Avdiivka) and southeast of Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction and the Bakhmut direction.

More at URL above.

Cheers

A joint operation by Ukrainian intelligence and the country's navy has hit two Russian naval vessels, reports cite Kyiv as saying.

The attacks this week were said to have used experimental weaponry mounted on sea drones.

The extent of the damage to the two vessels, both missile carriers, was unclear.

from www.dw.com...

Cheers

14 October Update

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine on October 14 and advanced west of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage published on October 14 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Marinka (just west of Donetsk City).

Ukrainian Naval Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported on October 14 that Ukrainian forces struck the Russian Professor Nikolai Muru tugboat and the Pavel Derzhavin patrol ship on October 13 and stated that the BSF has redeployed vessels from Sevastopol to Kerch, Feodosia, and Novorossiysk (in mainland Russia).

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers