Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

I posted previously about the huge losses Russia has experienced over the last week.

Does anybody know how many tanks Russia and Ukraine have now?

In mid-2023 there were numerous articles like this one saying that for the first time since the Ukraine war began in Feb 2022, Ukraine had more tanks than Russia:

Ukraine could have more battle tanks than Russia for the first time ever, new data suggests

A compilation of data from various sources suggests Ukraine currently has roughly 1,500 active tanks compared with around 1,400 for Russia, Bloomberg reported.

Russia began the war with 3,417 tanks available. At the same time, Ukraine had 987, according to The Military Balance for 2023, an annual report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank which looks at military equipment inventories.

While Ukraine's tank fleet has continued to grow, Russia's has been severely depleted.

That was in July 2023. The numbers have changed since then. The Oryx confirmed losses over the last week show that Russia lost many more vehicles (173, including 43 tanks) than Ukraine (37, including 4 tanks):


That's a screenshot from time 10:11 in this video:

Update from Ukraine | Crazy Record Ruzzian losses on the East | The Disaster of the Ruzzian Army

I know Russia has said they ramped up production of tanks, but it's still limited, and Ukraine is still receiving tanks from the West, including M1 Abrams Tanks from the US.

If the tank count in July was 1500 Ukraine, 1400 Russia, I wonder what it is now? I suspect it's probably even more to Ukraine's advantage now.

Anyway, since the tanks count started at about 3417 Russia to 987 Ukraine, it seems like Russia's campaign to demilitarize Ukraine has not only failed, but it's had the opposite effect of boosting the militarization of Ukraine, while doing a lot more to demilitarize Russia (in tank count and other measures), than Ukraine.

15 October Update

Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on October 15 but have yet to make further gains ... Both Ukrainian military observers and Russian sources stated that Russian forces did not achieve their desired immediate breakthrough, and Russian forces faced initial high losses and a likely slower than anticipated rate of advance.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 15 and slightly advanced south of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on October 15 shows that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced towards the railway line north of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and Russian sources reported continued Ukrainian ground attacks south of Bakhmut on the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka-Andriivka line (7-13km southwest of Bakhmut).

More at URL above.

Cheers

16 October Update

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction on October 16 and recently made some gains, albeit at a relatively slower pace than in the initial attacks. Geolocated footage posted on October 16 shows that Russian forces have marginally advanced past the E50 road about 3km south of Avdiivka.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Bakhmut directions.

Russian forces conducted a drone and missile strike against Ukrainian rear areas on the night of October 15-16. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched five Kh-59 cruise missiles, one Iskander ballistic missile in eastern and southern Ukraine, and 12 Shahed-131/136 drones in western Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense reportedly destroyed two of the Kh-59s and 11 Shahed drones.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Are we at a point to assess the 'progress' of the war to date ? I think occasional summaries, supplemented by thoughtful speculation, are useful.

My previous reply: "Maybe the beginning of the muddy season is a good time for an assessment because lots of sources are wondering how much progress Ukraine can make before then. That's pretty soon. Both sides will continue fighting over the winter, but the mud does put limitations on where the armored vehicles can travel."

This "Reporting From Ukraine" video is interesting and relevant to that question. It posits the goal for Ukraine should be to take the high ground around Novoprokopivka, before the muddy season arrives in Ukraine in several weeks. In this topographic map, the high ground is shown in red and you can see the arrows showing where Ukraine would need to advance from its current position to take the ridge just north of the blue line. I think this would only be an advance of 1-2km from Ukraine's current position so it seems like a realistic possibility. Whether they pull this off or not, they probably can't take Tokmak until next year which is about 12km from their current front line.


That's from time 3:24 in this video:

16 Oct: Ukrainians SET THE STAGE FOR THE FINAL PUSH | War in Ukraine Explained


He also does a good job of explaining the details of the Ukrainian attack on Verbova, which failed at first due to a Russian flank attack. But Ukraine quickly responded to that and counter-attacked the Russians in that direction in bad weather when the Russians couldn't use their drones. It sounds like Ukraine successfully repelled the Russian flank attack, and then some, and are now better positioned to attack Verbove again.

Another interesting development: The sanctions are apparently taking their toll on the Russian economy, and thus, the Russian currency, and Putin will apparently not allow the value of the Ruble to fall below one US cent. ($.01) if he can help it, which it was trying to do before Putin announced a decree yesterday to prevent the Ruble from going that low. This video explains the capital rules Putin decreed to try to salvage the value of the Ruble, but like the interest rate increase some weeks ago which was only temporarily delaying the inevitable, this measure too is only temporarily delaying the inevitable decline of the Ruble, and analysts are saying to plan on the value of the Ruble falling below one US cent by 2025 anyway (and Putin apparently really does not want to see the value of the Ruble get that low, but he will likely run out of tricks to prevent that from happening at some point).

RUSSIAN Ruble Collapse Causes Panic as President Putin Introduces New Foreign Currency Controls

Russia's Invasion of UKRAINE has caused Major Problems for the Russian Economy as Trade with Europe & the West has collapsed and Changes to the Global Supply Chain caused by the SANCTIONS have caused further problems. The value of the Russian Ruble has COLLAPSED over the past 12 months and the value has been drifting again after trading at MORE THAN 100 against the US Dollar recently. The initial response to this was for the Russian Central Bank to Hike Interest rates 3 times over the past 2 months however these increases have not worked and President Putin has now issued a DECREE introducing new FOREIGN CURRENCY CONTROLS. In this video I provide full details and discuss the implications for Russia.

Ukraine war latest: Russia begins 'most significant offensive in 10 months' - as Putin arrives in China...................

"Vladimir Putin has arrived in Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on a visit aimed at showing the "no-limits" partnership between the two countries. Meanwhile, Russia has "highly likely" begun a "coordinated offensive" across the east of Ukraine" news.sky.com...

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Ukraine war latest: Russia begins 'most significant offensive in 10 months' - as Putin arrives in China...................

"Vladimir Putin has arrived in Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on a visit aimed at showing the "no-limits" partnership between the two countries. Meanwhile, Russia has "highly likely" begun a "coordinated offensive" across the east of Ukraine" news.sky.com...

One of the most interesting things I've heard this month is Denys Davydov reading progress reports from a Russian commander's telegram channel on how the Russian attack in the east of Ukraine is going. Starting around 5 minutes in this video, Denys gives a bit of an update on that attack, then at 5:35 starts reading the Russian commander's posts. The Russian commander says they fired huge amounts of all kinds of artillery and bombs at Avdiivka ("I haven't seen such an artillery fire in my life") and Denys seems to agree Russia did that, and there's probably not a single house left in Avdiivka that hasn't been destroyed.

Update from Ukraine | Ruzzian Commander said that it was a Big mistake to Attack, They are Doomed


But after they spent their allocation of munitions destroying Avdiivka, the Russians apparently didn't have enough to keep it going, then Ukraine fired back with their huge supply of cluster munitions and other munitions (The US had about 9 million cluster shells in inventory...I don't know how many they gave Ukraine, but they could give them millions and still have millions left). Here are some excerpts from the Russian commander's posts as translated by Denys:

After the 7th day of the assault:
Russian commander: "Guys, that's it, we are at the dead end. We can not move forward. If we move, they start the artillery fire from everything they have. The positions we were able to take are constantly under the cluster munitions fire. Thank god we have the rain now and Ukrainians are unable to use their drones for surveillance, but our side is blind as well.

But they still use the cluster munitions very effectively even during the rain, and we are out of the cluster shells. We have a huge problem with the counter-artillery operation"

Denys comments here, that is because Russia lacks sufficient counter-artillery radars.

Continuing the Russian commander's comments: "Our guys on the front line are unable to move and even raise their heads from the ground...help us, because it's impossible to hold the taken positions. If there's not the same artillery fire as the first day, it means we are doomed. Without the heavy artillery, we are not able to win"

So yes Russia took some ground, but they are finding it difficult to hold it, and in some cases have already had to give up the taken ground. That commander's plea reminds me of Prigozhin always begging "we need more ammo...artillery shells, etc".

Ukraine has been building up defenses around Adviivka since before Russia's invasion began Feb 24 2022, back when they were dealing with the breakaway republic there in neighboring Donetsk, supported by Russia more clandestinely before the blatant invasion. So Avdiivka was not an easy target for Putin to select, and while Russia has made some small advances there and other parts of the eastern front, as the Russian commander says, they are finding those positions difficult if not impossible to hold.

Ukraine finally got some ATACMS and put them to use, apparently firing about three of them at the Berdyansk airfield in southern occupied Ukraine, and two of them to Luhansk in eastern occupied Ukraine. The images are pretty convincing that the remnants of the missiles show ATACMS, but the images of the damage to aircraft are unclear and I only saw fires at night. The video posted below says it shows helicopters on fire, but you can watch and judge for yourself, it's not that clear to me exactly what is burning. Hopefully we will see some daytime satellite images that will show the extent of the damage to the aircraft.

ATACMS Hits Battlefield Ukraine In Spectacular Fashion (Updated)
The article first said ATACMS weren't yet confirmed, but the update was to confirm that yes, they do appear to be the least capable ATACMS in the US inventory, not those with the 300km range, but the cluster munitions variants with a range about half that.

Ukraine has used U.S. supplied ATACMS ballistic missiles for the first time against Russian interests in occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk.

Apparent attacks on two airbases in Russian-occupied Ukraine provide the first major signs of the use of the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), a short-range ballistic missile that Ukraine has been promised, but which it is not previously known to have received. In the past, The War Zone has pointed out that airfields packed with aircraft are exactly the kind of target that would be ideal for the cluster-warhead versions of these missiles.

A single ATACMS is fired by the M142 HIMARS truck, usually seen with the more familiar 6-cell 227 mm rocket launcher.

So far I think Ukraine is only getting the cluster munitions variants. They would probably need the unitary warhead variant with longer range to attack the Kerch bridge, and I doubt they have those yet and don't know if Ukraine will get them anytime soon. There's a limited inventory of those and I don't think any have been produced since 2007, since there's a replacement munition for ATACMS.

The U.S. Army has announced that it plans to replace all ATACMS missiles with their Long Range Precision Fires (LRPF) missiles beginning in 2018

Edit to add, this video claims to show footage of some Russian helicopters on fire at the Berdyansk airfield, but it's hard for me to confirm what is burning, hopefully it is burning helicopters:

17 Oct: SURPRISE. Ukrainians UNLEASH ATACMS MISSILES ON RUSSIAN BASES | War in Ukraine Explained

a video filmed by a Russian soldier leaked into the Ukrainian media space. Even though the video was filmed from afar, we can clearly see silhouettes of burning helicopters in the distance. According to the comments of the soldiers that were filming the video, there were at least 5 aircraft on fire: Mi-8 and Mi-24 in front of them, and Ka-52 to the left. Moreover, the camera also caught a glimpse of the facilities to the right that were brightly burning. The soldiers also said that the air defense did not manage to intercept any rockets. Soon, the helicopter’s ammunition started to detonate, and the soldiers ran away. Given that some helicopters were staying too close to each other, the detonation of ammunition caused more aircraft losses.

It sounds like another bad day for Russia. They've had a lot of those lately. As UFOorbhunter posted, Putin launched a massive attack in advance of his visit to China hoping to negotiate from a position of strength showing his victory, but unfortunately for Putin, he's instead had defeat after defeat and experienced huge losses in the attacks. This has probably had the opposite effect from what he intended regarding his meeting with China.

17 October Update

Ukraine used US-provided ATACMS long-range missiles to strike Russian targets in occupied Ukraine for the first time on October 17. The Wall Street Journal and other Western media outlets confirmed on October 17 that the US “secretly” provided Ukraine with ATACMS with a range of 165km in recent days and reported that Ukrainian forces already used ATACMS to strike Russian-controlled airfields in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast and Luhansk City, Luhansk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions south of Bakhmut and had partial success west of Verbove (10km east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast).

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and advanced in certain areas of the front.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Pretty amazing write up Arbi I'm never too sure about Mr Davydov yet he does come across as fairly convincing in this fog of war.

"A unique Ukrainian weapon": Ukrainian engineers combined 6 Kalashnikov rifles together on a tripod and made a single trigger for them.

originally posted by: Erno86
"A unique Ukrainian weapon": Ukrainian engineers combined 6 Kalashnikov rifles together on a tripod and made a single trigger for them.

That video would be a lot more interesting if it showed some tests. Like for example, firing at a target to show the grouping. How would you calibrate each rifle if the rounds are not hitting the target together? With 6 rounds you can't tell for sure which rifle(s) to adjust, unless you mark the rounds somehow and capture them. You could fire them one at a time and try to calibrate that way, but that's not using the modified trigger system, so you really need to fire all 6 at once with the modified trigger system, to check the calibration in the intended use mode.

Personally I'd rather use proven technology like this larger caliber machine gun mounted on a pickup truck. With larger caliber, it takes less rounds to bring down a drone, and probably has better range and accuracy, and is easier to calibrate. The video says these have a range of 2.5 km. I'm not sure what the range of the 6-gun contraption is, but I suppose it's less than that. But maybe if they can't get enough of these larger caliber truck-mounted systems, they will try to use whatever they can.


Shahed hunters: how Ukrainian air defense shoots down Iranian Kamikadze drones launched by Russia

18 October Update

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions south of Bakhmut and had partial success south of Robotyne.

Several open-source intelligence analysts amplified satellite imagery of the Berdyansk airfield and suggested that it shows at least seven burned-out areas where satellite imagery previously showed various Russian helicopters, and additionally noted that many helicopters have since moved.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka direction, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced south of Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
18 October Update

More at URL above.

Cheers

I wonder what's going on at the east bank of the Dnipro river.

ISW will not speculate on the scope and prospects of ongoing Ukrainian activity on the east bank of Kherson Oblast but does not assess that Ukrainian forces have created a bridgehead on the east bank of Kherson Oblast suitable for the further maneuver of sizeable mechanized forces at this time. However, it is noteworthy that prominent and generally reliable Russian sources are discussing Ukrainian activities on the east bank as occurring at a larger scale than previously documented tactical cross-river raids by Ukrainian forces. ISW will continue to monitor the area closely and assess control of terrain changes and Russian responses, in line with its standing policy of not forecasting Ukrainian actions.

It doesn't sound like Ukraine has mechanized forces there yet, but they do seem to have a much larger bridgehead than they did a week ago and apparently took two villages under their control. According to "Reporting from Ukraine", Ukrainians have targeted Russian observation posts and communication towers, so that Russians can no longer keep an eye on what Ukrainians are up to from their observation posts, and they have limited ability to communicate with the communication towers destroyed. So they are up to something.

The video talks about setting up pontoon bridges and if Ukraine does that, maybe they can get some mechanized forces into their enlarged bridgeheads.

18 Oct: RUSSIANS PANIC. Ukrainians Establish a BRIDGEHEAD ON THE EASTERN BANK of the Dnipro River

Once Ukrainian forces detected that the Russian control over the region was weak, they launched the second phase of the operation – concentrated artillery and drone strikes. Ukrainian fighters have released dozens of geolocated videos of the strikes over the past week, and based on the available information, one of the primary targets of Ukrainian forces became observation posts. Ukrainian drones hit multiple cameras along the contact line to complicate surveillance and increase the reaction time to Ukrainian attacks. Moreover, Ukrainians found Russian antennas for radio communication and destroyed them as well, making communication on large distances impossible and fragmenting Russian forces due to the impossibility of cooperation.

Next, Ukrainians targeted the biggest enemy of infantry – enemy artillery. Combat footage from the region revealed that Russians had plenty of short-range howitzers in the region, as well as more powerful multiple-launch rocket systems deeper in the region. Medium- and long-range artillery was destroyed in coordination with HIMARS crews.

The last stage of the preparation for the attack became the destruction of enemy forces concentrations. The videos show that Ukrainians hunted down not only big trucks but also any small vehicles driving along the contact line. A fighter from the 24 Assault Brigade reported that one of the targets became a truck with infantry, and as a result, 24 Russian troops were killed on the spot.

Finally, Ukrainians conducted an amphibious operation, landed on the island, and completely cleared it from Russian troops. It seems like due to the issues with communication, Russian commanders did not realize it on time and failed to take any measures to protect the eastern bank. Ukrainians crossed the small river between the island and the eastern bank and assaulted 2 villages at the same time: Pishchanivka and Poima. And while Poima is a very small settlement near a train station, Pishchanivka is 1 km by 1.5 km. Later, Russian sources reported that Ukrainians attacked the eastern bank, took 2 villages, and are holding the foothold.

Russian analysts reported that the destruction of Russian helicopters yesterday in Berdyansk serves as a deterrent to moving aviation closer to the contact line, and with few helicopters nearby, Russians are unable to use aviation amply and aggressively to push Ukrainians out. For now, Russians admit that Ukrainians are holding an all-round defense while Russian forces are in complete disarray.

Meanwhile, Russian analysts also started raising the alarm that Ukrainians are preparing an additional attack from the north.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Could be the river and the ground that was flooded is not so much of an obstacle now. The destroyed dams and extensive earthworks allowed the Russians to concentrate on defending in areas where they held the advantage. If a real bridgehead develops, it could give Ukraine the opportunity for maneuver warfare ... and that possibility may be what is unnerving the Russians. As always, time will tell.

Cheers

19 October Update

Satellite imagery published on October 18 suggests that the Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the Luhansk City airfield likely damaged several helicopters on October 17.

Ukrainian officials reported on October 19 that Ukrainian forces have downed five Russian fixed wing aircraft within the past 10 days in Donetsk Oblast amid high Russian ground vehicle losses near Avdiivka.

Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued counteroffensive operations on October 19. A Ukrainian soldier stated that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified success near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut), and Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut) and advanced into the Russian defensive line towards Opytne (3km south of Bakhmut).

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 18 to 19. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched five Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one S-300 missile, one Kh-59 cruise missile, another unidentified missile, and nine Shahed-131/136 drones at Ukraine.

More at URL above.

Cheers

wasnt far wrong was i

www.abovetopsecret.com...

20 October Update

Russian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on October 20 and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian military command remains committed to offensive operations in the area despite heavy materiel and personnel losses. Geolocated footage published on October 20 shows that Russian forces secured minor advances west of Krasnohorivka (5km north of Avdiivka).

Ukrainian forces continued larger-than-usual ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 20 and established a confirmed presence in a settlement on the east bank. Geolocated footage published on October 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced into northeastern Krynky (27km east from Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River).

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make confirmed advances.

More at URL above.

Cheers

21 October Update

BBC Russia Service reported on October 21 that Ukrainian personnel involved in ground operations on the east bank stated that they are fighting to take full control of Krynky (30km northeast of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River).

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction and Bakhmut direction.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in various sectors of the front.

Kremlin newswire TASS reported on October 20 that Russian authorities confirmed Colonel General Viktor Afzalov in his previous acting role as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace (VKS) Forces.

More at URL above.

Cheers

No one cares about this #e any more, boomy.

22 October Update

Russian forces are funneling additional forces to the Avdiivka front despite ongoing challenges with frontal mechanized assaults and the failure of a renewed push on October 19-20.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops continue offensive actions south of Bakhmut and in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on October 22. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched eight S-300 missiles, a Kh-59 missile, three Shahed-131/136 drones, and two drones of an unspecified type at targets in Ukraine and that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed the three Shahed drones and the Kh-59 missile.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on October 22.

More at URL above.

The Russian push at Avdiivka is reminiscent of U.S. operations in the Huertgen Forest in 1944; the mentality of "once we have committed to something, we can't be seen as having quit"

Cheers