Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

1 October Update

Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defense against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The situation south of Robotyne is fluid as some tactically significant field fortifications have changed hands several times.

The status of the Wagner Group remains unclear amid reported negotiations about the Wagner Group’s future cooperation with the Russian government. The Wagner Group’s main combat elements are split across several countries, including Belarus, the Central African Republic, Libya, and Mali, and there is no clear unified leader for the Wagner Group.

Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 30 to October 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 1 that Ukrainian air defenses downed 16 of 30 Shahed 131/136 drones that Russian forces launched.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
Makes sense really as Russia have seeded the south and east of Ukraine with these mines-so they are free,just waiting to be collected as Ukraine moves forward.

It must be a bitter pill for Russia to swallow, when they are simultaneously complaining about Western nations donating military matériel, AND donating kit and munitions themselves.

War is a great driver of innovation, and doubtless drone "science" is being propelled by this wretched war, not just for military, but also for civil application.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

You make interesting points Arbi, yet from an Armenian perspective the people don't want to live in their historic homeland and be ruled over and policed by Turks. Looking at it logically and back a few hundred years one totally gets why this is the case. Turks already committed a holocaust against the Armenian people. Now we see renewed violence against the Armenian's yet nobody is cranking up the pressure for western intervention in the region. One rule for one another rule for the other.

2 October Update

Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on October 2. Geolocated footage published on October 2 indicates that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced northwest of Novomayorske (18km southeast of Veylka Novosilka).

Russian forces conducted a small-scale Shahed-131/136 drone strike on Ukraine on the night of October 1-2 after Russian forces conducted a record number of drone strikes targeting Ukrainian grain and port infrastructure in September 2023. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched seven drones from the Krasnodar Krai direction and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down four drones.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kreminna, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on October 2.

More at URL above.

Cheers

3 October Update

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction and offensive actions in the Bakhmut direction.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 2 to 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 3 that Ukrainian air defenses downed 29 of 31 Shahed drones and one Iskander-M cruise missile targeting Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Putin Ally Suggests Nuclear Explosion Over Russia

She cited the call by the late Russian right-wing populist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who died in April 2022, "that we strike Washington."

But she suggested that hitting one of Ukraine's allies with a missile— a common refrain on the Russian state TV programs she appears on, would not be necessary.

She said that Russia could "conduct a thermonuclear explosion hundreds of kilometers above our own territory somewhere in Siberia," and that would not impact those on the ground.

Rather than describing the intention of such a move as one to scare the West, she said its main effect would be to "destroy all radio electronics" and affect satellites, cameras and phones. Simonyan then talked about how life could revert to the time of 1993 and how "glad" she would be to live in a gadget-free world.

"The option is out there and it is the most humane one," she concluded, leading Davis to post how Simonyan had "predicted a grim future" because she thinks "the war against Ukraine might go on for ages and suggested blowing up a nuke over Siberia to scare the West."

So, what do you think would be the West's response to such an act?

Would Biden's handlers finally do something decisive about Ukraine?

a reply to: Bishop2199

Hmm. Would be more complicated than just Washington's response. Can't believe Beijing would be amused.

Cheers

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Now we see renewed violence against the Armenian's yet nobody is cranking up the pressure for western intervention in the region. One rule for one another rule for the other.

Apparently almost all the Armenians just left, after they were disappointed that the Russian peacekeepers that were there to protect the Armenians did nothing to stand in the way of the invasion by Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan said the few Armenians left wouldn't be harmed, but you're probably right, they don't want to live there under the rule of their enemy.

Again the territory Azerbaijan invaded wasn't recognized by any country as Armenian, a totally different situation than Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a country which was universally recognized as a sovereign nation, so it's more like apple things for apples, and orange things for oranges, is this not what you do yourself? It's not the same situation at all.

originally posted by: Bishop2199
So, what do you think would be the West's response to such an act?

Would Biden's handlers finally do something decisive about Ukraine?

I wouldn't take the threat too seriously, though it's not impossible, and the US did exactly that over the heads of 5 soldiers in 1957, before the atmospheric test ban went into effect. I think the answer is, "it depends..." on things like the yield and altitude of the detonation and how much damage it caused to satellites of other countries. The response could be billing Russia for the damaged satellites, not that Russia would ever pay the bills.

Speaking of Russia's unpaid bills, did anybody mention yet in these threads what may be the largest theft in modern history committed by the Russians? They were leasing a lot of airplanes before the invasion of Ukraine, and after the invasion they stopped making payments on the leases and didn't return the leased aircraft. So essentially they stole $10 billion worth of planes, which is why I doubt they would pay the bills for the damaged satellites which would be millions or maybe even billions more.

How Ireland landed in the center of Russia's $10 billion plane heist

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
3 October Update
More at URL above.

The "Reporting from Ukraine" youtube channel said the ISW was reporting wrong information about who controlled the trenches south of Robotyne, and on the map it looks like they admitted they were wrong to say they were controlled by Russia on Oct 1; the map says Russia was likely repelled from those two trenches on or after Sept 17.



Apparently the Russians have put a lot of effort into trying to take those trenches back, and have had a lot of losses in the attempts. Since they have been unsuccessful, apparently now they are reporting that they don't need those trenches that badly anyway, but that's probably just propaganda to mask their failure to re-capture them, they seem like important trenches for either side to hold. This 5 minute video talks about the battles in that area and how much equipment Russia is losing. They are trying to hide their armored vehicles in the small forests, but Ukraine's drones are finding them anyway and then they get destroyed. I don't know how you are supposed to hide armored vehicles from drones these days, especially if they have thermal cameras...putting some branches on top doesn't hide the heat signature very well if the vehicle runs at all.

03 Oct: Ukrainians DESTROY 14 TANKS AND ARMORED FIGHTING VEHICLES around Novoprokopivka

NATO official: Ukraine's allies running out of ammunition, production must increase.

kyivindependent.com...

While Zelensky’s wife is reportedly seen again splurge shopping at Cartier in NYC for jewelry. And it’s not the first time either..

In December 2022, for example, she has reportedly spent 40,000 euros during her trip to Paris coinciding with her husband asking for more financial support from the United States and the European Union.

4 October Update

Satellite imagery published on October 1 and 3 shows that Russian forces transferred at least 10 vessels from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. The satellite imagery reportedly shows that Russian forces recently moved the Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen frigates, three diesel submarines, five landing ships, and several small missile ships. Satellite imagery taken on October 2 shows four Russian landing ships and one Kilo-class submarine remaining in Sevastopol.

(Me: getting too hot in Crimea for the Black Sea Fleet)

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced on October 4. Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks towards the rail line between Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut), and the Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success near these settlements.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made limited gains near Kreminna.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Imhere
NATO official: Ukraine's allies running out of ammunition, production must increase.

This situation has been reported for months. Yet, the West continues to supply. The advanced West has significant production capability for munitions.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: Imhere
NATO official: Ukraine's allies running out of ammunition, production must increase.

This situation has been reported for months. Yet, the West continues to supply. The advanced West has significant production capability for munitions.

The US production capacity when Russia invaded Ukraine was 14,000 artillery shells a month. Russia was firing more shells than that every day!

Russia and Ukraine are firing 24,000 or more artillery rounds a day

Russia is firing a staggering 20,000 artillery rounds per day, a senior U.S. defense official estimated, while Ukraine is firing from 4,000 to 7,000 rounds daily.

The Ukrainians are quickly burning through their stockpiles of artillery rounds and other ammunition, including for their air defense systems, officials said.

“Ukraine still needs a significant amount of artillery going forward,” the official said. “Consumption rates in this war are very high.”

As of August 21, 2023 the US has increased production from 14,000 a month to 24,000 a month and think they might be able to get it to 28,000 a month but still that's not a lot more than the 20,000 shells a day Russia was firing. All of Europe's capacity is also inadequate for what Ukraine would like to have.

So those shell use rates sound devastatingly lopsided if you just look at those numbers of shells, but, there are two factors which make the situation less lopsided than those numbers alone suggest:

1. Accuracy: western artillery systems are more accurate, so Ukraine doesn't need to fire as many shells to hit the target with the higher accuracy.
2. The US had millions of cluster munitions in stock that were already made, so providing those has helped Ukraine have a lot more to fire from inventory compared to the relatively low production rates of standard new shells. Even making 24,000 shells a month, it would take 42 months to produce a million shells!

By 2025 the US and Europe should have ramped up artillery shell production significantly, but that apparently involves building more factories which takes time and doesn't help Ukraine right now. The US production with new factories should be 100,000 shells a month, but if Russia is really firing 20,000 shells a day that's still only 5 days worth of shells fired, produced in an entire month.

On the Russian side, I have more questions than answers. What was their initial inventory of artillery shells and even if we knew that number, how many of those shells were actually usable? How many has Ukraine destroyed by blowing up ammo dumps, and how many shells can Russia make a month? This article discusses such questions but I'm not sure it really answers tham:

When Will Ammunition Shortage Silence Russia’s Artillery?

At the start of the war, Ukrainian analysts estimated that the Russians has some 525,000 rounds stockpiled in the country. Mark Urban of the BBC says the total stockpile may be as many as 16 million rounds — but most likely the Russians themselves do not know the exact number, nor how many of their 40+ year old rounds can still be fired.

There's a big difference between half a million and 16 million and who knows the real number? Maybe not even Putin, but we have seen Russia trying to get shells from N Korea so that tells us something, they want more than they have.

Russia has added another war crime to the already long list with a missile strike on a grocery store in the village of Hroza in Ukraine's Kharkiv region today , rescue operations are still ongoing but the death toll currently stands at 51 including a 6 year old boy.

At least 49 people are thought to have died in the attack on Hroza, a village in the Kupyan district, which took place just after 1pm.

Volodymyr Zelensky, attending a summit with European leaders in Granada, condemned the “brutal attack” and renewed his calls for allies to provide air defences.

Kharkiv governor Oleh Synyehubov said: “Rescuers continue to work on the spot. As of now, the bodies of 48 dead people, including a six-year-old boy, have been recovered from the rubble.

It's "hard to believe" that the strike on Hroza is anything except a targeted attack, a military analyst has said.

Professor Michael Clarke, defence and security analyst and former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, told Sky News the scale of the damage also suggests it wasn't carried out with an average battlefield missile.

Three days of mourning for the victims of the attack will take place across Ukraine's southern Kharkiv region starting tomorrow.

The region's military administration head Oleg Sinegubov sent his "sincere condolences" to the family and friends of the dead as he announced the news on Telegram.

As we've been reporting, at least 51 people died when a missile hit a shop and cafe in the small village of Hroza, which is home to just a few hundred residents.

Ukrainian prosecutors released photos of the immediate aftermath of the attack, showing bloodied bodies and destroyed buildings.
news.sky.com...

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
The US production capacity when Russia invaded Ukraine was 14,000 artillery shells a month. Russia was firing more shells than that every day!

Doctrinal differences in how artillery is used. Russia has not moved on from the massed artillery of the past. NATO have taken a different path. Why expend 100 artillery shells, when one will do the job?

5 October Update

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on October 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in the Melitopol direction (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and offensive actions in the Bakhmut direction.

Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Hroza, Kharkiv Oblast that killed 51 people on October 5 following another series of drone strikes across Ukraine overnight. . . . The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 29 Shahed-131/136 drones on the night of October 4 to 5, and that Ukrainian forces shot down 24 of the drones.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not advance on October 5.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Bishop2199

Our response should be glass their butts. I imagine CHina might decide to kill putin and take over russia if that happens.

6 October Update

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 6. Ukrainian military sources noted that Ukrainian forces continued successful offensive actions south of Bakhmut near Andriivka (8km southeast of Bakhmut).

Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated on October 6 that Russian forces resumed combat operations in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction.

Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike targeting port, grain, and border infrastructure in southern Ukraine on the night of October 5-6. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 33 Shahed drones from Cape Chauda, Crimea and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 25 of the drones.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2
Thanks for the update.
Apparently Putin's dialog about Prigozhin getting drunk in his plane and playing with hand grenades possibly being the cause of his plane crashing is so proposterous that it's backfiring and generating some public support in Russia for Prigozhin's memory. Putin's long been adept at propaganda but he doesn't seem to know how to handle the propaganda for his betrayal of his deal with Prigozhin.
www.understandingwar.org...

The Kremlin’s continued attempts to deflect blame for the crash of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane and disgrace Prigozhin are generating continued praise for Prigozhin and efforts to defend his legacy among select information space communities. Pro-Wagner and Wagner-affiliated channels largely lampooned Putin’s suggestion on October 5 Prigozhin’s plane crashed due to grenades detonating onboard, possibly due to the passengers using alcohol or drugs onboard.

ISW says it doesn't report on Russian war crimes, but lately the Russians are attacking civilians daily.

ISW mentions the missiles Russia fired at Ukraine's ports. Ukraine shot most of them down, but the rest caused damage.
Apparently despite all the damage from Russian missiles, Ukraine has three ports open now and they are no longer blockaded by the Russian fleet, most of which left Sevastopol for safer locations, further from the ability of Ukraine to attack. If Ukraine can resume shipments of exports, this would help them a lot financially despite Russia pulling out of the grain deal, and it might keep Poland on their good side if they can ship grain to places that don't affect Poland. That's discussed in this update for today from Denys Davydov:

Update from Ukraine | Ruzzian Tank Convoy Ambushed | Ukraine gained the Ground on the South

I've seen Ukraine use decoys for things like tanks and himars to get Russia to waste their expensive missiles on those decoys, but this is the first I've seen of decoy soldiers being used by Russia. This is a decoy artillery soldier on Russia's front line. I wonder if it helps or if they are just really short-handed in Russia; they are apparently trying to recruit soldiers from Syria now!

That video also mentions that Germany might provide another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, which could really help if Russia again tries to shut down Ukraine's electric infrastructure this winter.

The "Reporting from Ukraine" youtube channel noted Russians downed another of their airplanes with friendly fire, which comes to 5 now that they admit publicly and probably more than that! Here is a list of the Russian planes, and dates they were downed by friendly fire:

from:

a reply to: Arbitrageur

There is a lot of ground in terms of topics that this thread can cover. For the updates, I try to limit them to clear statements (vice speculation) about military operations. ISW's speculation about the capabilities of Russian forces to relieve units on the front is interesting reading, but in the end, it is speculation. Thus, I leave it those interested to visit the URL if they want to read the 'extras'.

That was cheesy of Putin to say that about Prigo; mocking the dead is rarely a rewarding exercise.

Are we at a point to assess the 'progress' of the war to date ? I think occasional summaries, supplemented by thoughtful speculation, are useful.

Be funny if Ukrainian drones got the decoy soldier to surrender

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Are we at a point to assess the 'progress' of the war to date ? I think occasional summaries, supplemented by thoughtful speculation, are useful.

Maybe the beginning of the muddy season is a good time for an assessment because lots of sources are wondering how much progress Ukraine can make before then. That's pretty soon. Both sides will continue fighting over the winter, but the mud does put limitations on where the armored vehicles can travel.