Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

The following info is provided by the Ukrainian Intelligence Bureau

Russia-Ukraine War: Russian officers inflating number of troops - GUR

Russian military officers are reportedly inflating the number of troops they have amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed on Saturday.

The claim specifically cited an incident in three motorized infantry brigades experiencing shortages.

According to the GUR, the units were reported by the commanders as being fully staffed before the invasion had begun. But once the invasion started, it soon became apparent that the units were actually just around 55% staffed.

Two battalion commanders were arrested by individuals, believed by the GUR to be operatives of Russia's Federal Security Services (FSB), shortly after this inconsistency was established.

The idea that officers would inflate the number of troops under their command isn't unprecedented.

A recent example is what happened in Afghanistan. At one point, following the nearly two-decade-long US military presence in the country, the Afghan army was believed to have been built up considerably to the point of being an effective military force – at the very least, it was widely assumed that it would be effective enough to stop a Taliban takeover following the US withdrawal.

However, not only did the Taliban take over Afghanistan once the US left, they did so incredibly quickly. seizing the country in a matter of days.

A number of reasons were thought to be behind this, such as widespread corruption which meant that the reality on the ground was vastly different from the numbers on paper.

click link for article

This is not new. Especially when your funding is dependent on the number of troops present (The UK has done this waaay back in the day). However doing it before going into a war is plain suicidal. The fact the FSB has arrested senior commanders also says a lot. The mindset that Putin was lied to by his people cant be used as a defense any longer and the fact Putin is still going forward with his war, imo, is what causes his military to fight back (and refuse orders as we have been seeing).

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: Xcathdra

IMO, it is more of a question of keeping the defenders resupplied and reinforced with replacements for battlefield causalities. Also, the Russians levelling city blocks provide rubble that acts as concealment for the defenders, or holes in buildings act as access points for lightly equipped forces.

Nor do the Russians have the number of troops or NCOs for urban warfare. So the Russians might face guerilla networks operating in the ground conditions they created.

A few days ago Ukrainian forces were able to breakthrough Russian lines north of Mariupol and get supplies / replacements in but Russia closed the breakthrough. Ukraine also was able to retake some land in Mariupol near the port. This was used for Ukrainians to consolidate their forces into one area (Russia has since retaken). As for Russia leveling the city apparently they dont remember WW2 and Leningrad. That siege lasted 850+ days and given 20/20 hindsight from today's scholars it is listed as genocide because of the targeting of civilians by the Nazis.

The Russian military hates urban fighting and do everything they can to avoid it - like leveling cities (see Chechnya and the USSR during ww2). It is easier for Ukraine to get supplies and replacements than it is for Russia and with the reports of Russians refusing to fight and commanders lying about their troops levels only helps Ukraine.

The Russian military does not seem to like Noncoms (I think the leadership takes it as a threat to have rank and file members of the military exercise independent thought). There was an ambush a couple of weeks ago of a russian units attempting to move into a city. The ambush killed the unit commander as well as several other officers. The unit retreated and instead of regrouping they stopped several miles outside the city, on the road, and stayed on the road - exposed - for 2 days. That almost finished the unit off. The new commander took control and issues the obvious (to the West anyways) orders for moving into cover, consolidating and setting up defensive lines.

Ukraine has began to shift forces away from Kiev and are sending them to the East and South. About a month+ ago it was stated that if Russian continues to not advance that Ukraine would be able to go on the offensive by April/May. Turns out that seems to be occurring.

The US had CIA/special forces deployed to Ukraine, training them not only in combat tactics but also guerilla tactics. The Ukrainians, imo, paid attention to their training. There was talk when Russia first invaded Ukraine that the war would take years because even if Ukraine's army was defeated the Guerilla tactics would be employed. This would be a pyrrhic victor for Putin.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
ISW reports that Mariupol has been occupied by the Russians with the exceptions of some areas of resistance such as the steel works.

Cheers

Mariupol is under Crimea now.

Not negotiable.

dp

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: xpert11

Zelenskyy has stated numerous times that trading land for peace is a non option and that includes land in the east as well as Crimea. I understand such bravado is needed when you are leading an Army in a war but I get the impression his soldiers share that thought process and Mariupol is a prime example.

Zelensky just lost Mariupol now forever at least under his lifetime.

Zelensky is a stooge, an actor, that’s prancing on Stage that saw this happening years ago. And gambled.

Half of Ukraine is about to be chipped off in a few days/weeks

a reply to: Imhere

Mariupol and Crimea are Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by Russia. Call them what you will but Russia is going to be defeated and Putin will lose power. No country (important ones anyways) will recognize Russia's territorial grabs, including Ukraine.

Before you put up bunting for Russia you may want to get caught up on the state of Russian forces.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: Imhere

Mariupol and Crimea are Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by Russia. Call them what you will but Russia is going to be defeated and Putin will lose power. No country (important ones anyways) will recognize Russia's territorial grabs, including Ukraine.

Before you put up bunting for Russia you may want to get caught up on the state of Russian forces.

You can sway all you want.

You know what’s happening.

We saw this years ago

a reply to: Imhere

Are you suggesting that Russia will employ weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine? Russian military forces don't have the leadership, logistical capabilities and training, among other issues, to conquer Ukraine.

a reply to: Imhere

and the Ukrainian army and people have since made changes. Relying on what / how Ukraine did 8 years ago and assuming it will occur again is a recipe for defeat for Russia... as we witnessed in their failed attempt to take Kiev. Russia does not have the manpower to occupy Ukraine but you keep thinking that sparky.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: Imhere

Are you suggesting that Russia will employ weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine? Russian military forces don't have the leadership, logistical capabilities and training, among other issues, to conquer Ukraine.

I’m suggesting you open your eyes and see the map.

What do you see? It’s eastern Ukraine getting crunched off.

Much to “Russian main stream media failure” point outs.

Let’s for a moment look at reality, Russia had many victories. So did Ukraine.

But how’s the east looking? And in the future?

All this pro Ukraine push news on the rest of us means ZERO.

We can see ourselves what’s truly going on

originally posted by: Imhere
But how’s the east looking? And in the future?

The Soviet conquest in Afghanistan killed 10% of the population and took 1/3 of the country and they weren't using the junk equipment that Russia is now since most of the junk being used now was brand new then. And then what happened? Oh, right, hasta la pasta Soviets.

Russia cannot win a guerilla war or sustain an occupation when the West is feeding the Ukrainians force-leveling equipment designed to destroy modern equipment and they're using it against 1980's tech.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: Imhere
But how’s the east looking? And in the future?

The Soviet conquest in Afghanistan killed 10% of the population and took 1/3 of the country and they weren't using the junk equipment that Russia is now since most of the junk being used now was brand new then. And then what happened? Oh, right, hasta la pasta Soviets.

Russia cannot win a guerilla war or sustain an occupation when the West is feeding the Ukrainians force-leveling equipment designed to destroy modern equipment and they're using it against 1980's tech.

Lol

Didn’t we hear this in 2014, etc? when Crimea happened or whatever.

Anyway,

Keep watching the East

a reply to: Imhere

originally posted by: Imhere
Didn’t we hear this in 2014, etc? when Crimea happened or whatever.

We started giving them equipment after Crimea, they have been training for 8 years and it is now revealing itself in the wreckage of Russian armor littering the areas they pulled out from. This is also now a full scale military invasion and nearly every able bodied person is a potential guerilla. The Soviets couldn't sustain the Afghan invasion and they were a much superior military to what Russia now is in relation.

Both countries, Ukraine and Afghanistan, are roughly the same size in regards population and landmass, the exception being the Ukrainians are getting even better equipment and more funding my a large margin.

a reply to: Imhere

Russia is entrenched in Ukraine, but that isn't the same as having the capabilities to conduct and sustain manoeuvre warfare. Beyond limited counterattacks, the Ukrainians aren't in a position to destroy the invading forces. Moreover, the chances of Putin employing weapons of mass destruction increase in the event of a Western Front style deadlock.

On another note, Ukraine won't request additional military, economic and humanitarian aid from Australia until after that country's federal election.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: Imhere
Didn’t we hear this in 2014, etc? when Crimea happened or whatever.

We started giving them equipment after Crimea, they have been training for 8 years and it is now revealing itself in the wreckage of Russian armor littering the areas they pulled out from. This is also now a full scale military invasion and nearly every able bodied person is a potential guerilla. The Soviets couldn't sustain the Afghan invasion and they were a much superior military to what Russia now is in relation.

Both countries, Ukraine and Afghanistan, are roughly the same size in regards population and landmass, the exception being the Ukrainians are getting even better equipment and more funding my a large margin.

WE juSt sTArTed giving them what?

Now we’re comparing campaigns with Afghanistan.

Like it even matters right now. Get a grip. Hillary

Your next days/weeks are going to be nothing but Eastern side of Ukraine getting completely chomped off.

Under Biden too. And Zelensky.

* - Kyiv(16:33). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Explosions in Odesa as result of air defense engaging aerial targets

* - MLRS shelling in Avdiyivka

* - Head of Kyiv regional administration reports missile strike in Vasylkiv this morning

* - Russian Air Force Tupolev Tu-154M RA-85041 en route to Crimea

* - Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast(14:31). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Russian troops shelled and damaged a church at Saltovka district in Kharkiv last night

* - Civil Defense in Kharkiv region asking citizens to stay in shelters today due to constant shelling

* - Ukrainian air defense shot down a missile over Vasylkiv

* - Russian TV broadcasts video of captured 'Britons' demanding UK PM negotiate their release

* - According to Serbia's President, since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, more than a dozen Air Serbia flights were forced to return to Belgrade or Moscow due to bomb threats, while Belgrade's airport was evacuated at least three times

* - Explosions were heard in Dnipro city, reportedly hit somewhere at outskirts

* - At least 8 residential buildings, educational and infrastructural objects were destroyed in Kramatorsk as result of Russian missiles strikes

* - Humanitarian aid distribution point was shelled at Novi Budynky district in Kharkiv. 1 person killed, 6 wounded

* - 4 killed, 1 wounded when Russian troops attacked civilian car in Kreminna

* - Russian troops captured Kreminna, clashes ongoing - head of Luhansk regional administration Haidai

* - Yesterday Russian troops shelled Kryvyi Rih district with MLRS GRAD. 5 houses, 3 vehicles, other buildings damaged

* - Mayor of L'viv: about 40 cars damaged or destroyed, hotel damaged as result of missile strike. 6 killed, 11 wounded

* - Shelling and clashes with small arms reported near Staroverivka, Kharkiv region

* - 6 killed, 8 wounded, including a child as result of missile strikes in Lviv, - head of regional administration. Total 4 hits: 3 at military objects, one at tire service

* - There are dead and wounded as result of missile strike in L'viv, - MP Mykola Knyazhytsky

* - Explosions reported in Kharkiv

* - Head of Ukrainian railways Oleksander Kamyshin: missile strikes in L'viv at railway infrastructure, no casualties, there will be delays in schedule

* - 2 wounded as result of missile strike in Synelnykove district, railway infrastructure damaged in Pavlohrad district, no casualties

* - Russian troops assaulting Kreminna town, street battles rage, evacuation of civilians impossible now - head of Luhansk regional administration

* - Russian Aviation Agency: Extending the closure of 11 airports in southern and southwestern Russia until April 25

* - 5 missile launches this morning from area of Snizhne

* - Images of cruiser Moskva on fire - Twitter pics/videos - safe

* - Missile strikes in Pavlohrad and Synelnykove districts of Dnipropetrovsk region this morning

* - Head of Dnipropetrovsk regional administration confirmed missile strikes in region, says some of missile were shot down by air defense

* - Russia conducted 5 missile strikes in Lviv

* - Video of a Ukrainian ATGM strike on a Russian tank in Popasna by Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade

* - Lozova was shelled with missiles this afternoon, no casualties - city council head

* - Woman killed as result of shelling in Dovzhyk village of Zolochiv community

* - Heavy explosion reported in Kherson airport area

* - 1 killed as result of Russian army shelling in Zelenodolsk community in Dnipropetrovsk region

* - Explosions in Nemyshlansky and Slobidsky districts of Kharkiv

* - Ukrainian military in counter-offensive in Kharkiv region. Liberated Bazalievka, Lebyazhe, partially Kutuzivka

* - 2 killed, 4 wounded as result of Russian army shelling in Zolote town, Luhansk region

* - Shelling at Saltivka, reports of multiple fires

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: Imhere

Russia is entrenched in Ukraine, but that isn't the same as having the capabilities to conduct and sustain manoeuvre warfare. Beyond limited counterattacks, the Ukrainians aren't in a position to destroy the invading forces. Moreover, the chances of Putin employing weapons of mass destruction increase in the event of a Western Front style deadlock.

On another note, Ukraine won't request additional military, economic and humanitarian aid from Australia until after that country's federal election.

What glasses are you looking from?

Because I’m seeing nothing but Russian forward movement and control in the eastern side.

It’s becoming a chunk.

What’s Ukraine going to do later in years? Nuke Russia over it

originally posted by: Imhere
WE juSt sTArTed giving them what?

Force-leveling weapons.

Now we’re comparing campaigns with Afghanistan.

Yes, the similarities are striking and the result will most likely end up being the same since the Soviet military was more advanced vis a vis the Russians in relation to each of their respective opponents.

Flightradar24

* - REDEYE6 - Boeing E-8C / USAF - Circles over east Poland
* - NATO11 - Boeing E-3A Sentry / NATO (Luxembourg) - Patrolling Romania
* - HOMER11 - Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint / USAF - Patrolling Romania - Moldova/Ukraine border
* - CFC4083 - Boeing C-17A Globemaster III / RCAF - Rzeszoow Poland
* - DUKE44 - Sikorsky UH-60M Blackhawk / US Army - Southeast Poland near Rzeszow
* - NO CALLSIGN - CASA C-295M / Spanish air force - over Poland
* - LAGR222 - Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker / USAF - Romania/Hungary
* - RRR9911 - Airbus KC2 Voyager (A330-243MRTT) / RAF - Circles over Poland
* - SPAR19 - Boeing C-40C / USAF - Rzeszow Poland