Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

Russia loves using conspiracy theories in its propaganda. Tucker of course wants to play up the possibility that the Biden administration would have destroyed the pipeline. Reality is its highly unlikely they had killed the Nordstrom 2 pipeline already using sanctions. The Nordstrom one pipeline was nonoperational because Putin has been blocking gas and most European countries refused to buy more gas and create new contracts and instead were forcing Russia to just give them what they paid for under the old contract. But here the problem failure of Gasprom to complete these contracts set them up for hundreds of millions in fines. Now do to the pipeline damage instead of paying fines etc all they have to do is say we are no longer capable of delivery do to the damage.

For a country to attack the pipeline would be a major effort especially undetected. couldn't use ships would have to be subs with underwater diving operations. Worse you have to Chanel the explosives to take out the pipe, which would involve a serious amount of explosives these pipes aren't weak and even a magnetic mine or hundreds of pounds of c 4 wouldn't blow it up without welding and channeling the explosives. To be honest i doubt the US navy could do it much less twice.

The likely cause is Russia they knew the pipelines have lost their monetary value as they couldn't get new contracts. Russia I believe just did a James bond. Put explosives on a pig and send it down the pipeline Instead of cleaning the pipe it blows it up.

a reply to: dragonridr


I agree with all of that, but we still can't determine whodunnit without evidence that isn't available to us yet.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: WeDemBoyz

I wonder if the 1 or 2-year time for equipment arriving in Ukraine is intended to decisive Russian intelligence analysts?

I'm not sure how to read that. Decisive is an adjective, but the sentence might make more sense with a verb there instead of an adjective, like deceive or something, though I'm not sure if that makes any sense either. Is that some kind of typo? Or can you re-phrase it? I can't understand it as written.

I think he's referring to the '1-2 year time frame' for delivery of certain types of promised weapons to Ukraine being intentionally deceptive (the timeframe) in order to make it more difficult for russian analysts to plan accordingly.

a reply to: Sthrndream

That person is probably in Armenia with all the other brave heros of mother russia....

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
I think he's referring to the '1-2 year time frame' for delivery of certain types of promised weapons to Ukraine being intentionally deceptive (the timeframe) in order to make it more difficult for russian analysts to plan accordingly.

Spot on and nicely stated. I suspect Australia is delaying the public announcement concerning additional support to Ukraine to keep the Russians in the Dark. But I don't wish to overlook the issues concerning transporting military equipment to Ukraine.

On another note, I previously noted my comparison between Ukraine's recent counter-offensive and Slim's 14 Army crushing the Japanese in Burma. The reader might notice matters relating to how troops move around the battlefield. Also, one might add Russian forces in Ukraine to the last sentence concerning the scale of the defeat.

Tweet from Robert Lyman historian

I apologise for my wording/tone. Unfortunately, I don't know how to develop a better description in the time available.

originally posted by: xpert11
Spot on and nicely stated. I suspect Australia is delaying the public announcement concerning additional support to Ukraine to keep the Russians in the Dark. But I don't wish to overlook the issues concerning transporting military equipment to Ukraine.

So where you said "decisive" you meant to say "deceive" instead?

I don't know all the details for all the weapons systems, but I do recall hearing that some vehicles, specifically the Abrams tanks, have sensitive communications systems and other sensitive systems that would have to be stripped out before sending them to Ukraine. So in that example, it sounded like it was taking some time to figure out exactly what systems needed to be removed, and it would take some time to do it, from the units in inventory (if the Abrams get sent at all). After hearing that, it made a little more sense to me why they were talking about such long time frames for delivery. So I wondered if there are other issues with other communications systems etc that have to be removed before sending to Ukraine.

In any case, they certainly want to keep the Russians in the dark regarding precise delivery dates/schedules of equipment to Ukraine, so as not to give them a target like they would be searching for if they knew exactly when and where the systems were entering Ukraine.

a reply to: Arbitrageur


It doesn't take long to prepare M1s for export, but that isn't the reason we haven't sent any.

Or even promised any.

They are a radically different type of machine that only look similar to other tanks on the outside.

Inside it's more similar to a Jet Bomber.

It isn't wise to hand a jet engine to a diesel mechanic.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Correct, I experienced a proof reading error. Concerning communication and other IT systems that is something for me to consider in the future.

29 September Update

Key Takeaways

* The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization” procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization.

* Belarus may be preparing to accommodate newly-mobilized Russian servicemen but remains unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine on Russia’s behalf.

* Ukrainian troops have likely nearly completed the encirclement of the Russian grouping in Lyman and cut critical ground lines of communication (GLOCS) that support Russian troops in the Drobysheve-Lyman area.

* Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Russian forces are deploying newly-mobilized troops to reinforce the Kherson Oblast frontline.

* Ukrainian troops continued to target Russian logistics, transportation, and military assets in Kherson Oblast.

* Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.

* Russian forces have likely increased the use of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in southern Ukraine.

* An independent Russian polling organization, the Levada Center, found that almost half of polled Russians are anxious about mobilization, but that support for Russian military actions declined only slightly to 44%.

* Ukrainian officials reiterated their concerns that the Kremlin will mobilize Ukrainian citizens in occupied oblasts following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation announcement.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Russians trading sheep for sheep...

In Tuva (Russia) since yesterday each family of mobilized can receive one sheep According to unconfirmed reports from Russian officials, the families were also given potatoes

Pics and an article at the link: mobile.twitter.com...

No doubt, the four legged sheep were stolen from Ukraine.

a reply to: WeDemBoyz

What a mess when this war is over. There will be DA (Displaced Animals) all over eastern Europe!



Cheers

Russia walking backwards ..


for the first time in about 70 years russia is going to have to field large light infantry units. in the 1950s for the most part all of the russian army, marines, and airborne were all given armored vehicles.


Physical exercise is good for body . But war is different thing ..

This russian conscript thinks that russia is surrounded and that 50 to 70% of the world has taken up arms against them.

Russian mobik attempts to explain what he's doing at the training grounds, and why. Guy's brain is a mess.

mobile.twitter.com...

originally posted by: WeDemBoyz
This russian conscript thinks that russia is surrounded and that 50 to 70% of the world has taken up arms against them.

Russian mobik attempts to explain what he's doing at the training grounds, and why. Guy's brain is a mess.

mobile.twitter.com...

You should see russian teevee, ☝️ this is 100% normal over there right now.

It's a pretty serious crime to say anything different.

Seriously.

a reply to: WeDemBoyz



What are they smoking LOL

a reply to: WeDemBoyz

Thing is, he and Russia could have all those things he says the West/NATO, whomever is trying to take from them if their country had just stayed inside its own borders. Whatever "freedom" looks like in Russia, they could have had it. Now, the only freedom they are facing is from this mortal coil.

Footage of russians fleeing Lyman on foot.

twitter.com...

originally posted by: WeDemBoyz
Footage of russians fleeing Lyman on foot.

twitter.com...

Lyman day!

I was only 12 hours off!

Those Ukrainians sure are learning fast!

originally posted by: WeDemBoyz
Footage of russians fleeing Lyman on foot.

twitter.com...

hyper macho not woke russian army in action.....

So Putin has signed over the 4 regions of Ukraine-even as fighing rages in Donetsk region..

In a major speech on Friday, Mr Putin declared Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would be folded into Russia.
"This is the will of millions of people," he said in front of hundreds of dignitaries at the Kremlin.
"People have made their choice at referendums in Ukraine's territories," he said.
"There are four new regions of Russia."

www.msn.com... Zt

I watched it,and saw zero happy faces in the room full of his kremlin people.
They clapped after the speech,but were far from jubilant if their facial expressions were a true reflection of how they felt.

Now we are in a situation,where under Russian law-Ukraine are attacking and killing Russians IN Russia.
I am guessing Putin could if he wishes,use that to escalate things even more as that seems to be the path he has decided to walk.