Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

From ISW Today:

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat. Several Russian milbloggers and prominent military correspondents claimed that Ukrainian troops advanced west, north, and northeast of Lyman and are working to complete the envelopment of Russian troops in Lyman and along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in this area. Russian mibloggers stated that Ukrainian troops are threatening Russian positions and lines of communication that support the Lyman grouping. The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk and western Luhansk oblasts and may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk Oblast border and in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area

Those russian milbloggers seem to have 'settled' on an opinion that Ukraine gained somewhere in the neighborhood of 1000 sq km today.

1000 sq km.

Today.




I have no idea if true or not, but that's what the tgram russians currently believe.

28 September Update

Key Takeaways

* Russian military leadership has likely failed to set information conditions for the potential defeat of the Russian grouping in Lyman, despite increasingly concerned discourse among Russian milbloggers regarding the potential for a Ukrainian envelopment of Lyman.

* The Kremlin could temporarily postpone announcing the annexation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to better prepare the Russian information space and administrative organization, although September 30 remains the most likely date for some kind of annexation announcement.

* Russian authorities continue to send newly-mobilized and undertrained recruits to directly reinforce severely degraded remnants of various units, including units that were previously considered to be Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.

* Ukrainian forces likely continued to make significant gains around Lyman on September 28, advancing from the north along the Zelena Dolyna-Kolodiazi arc and from the southeast around Yampil.

* Ukrainian military officials largely maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian actions in Kherson Oblast on September 28 but stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing positional battles in unspecified locations to consolidate and improve their positions along the Southern Axis.

* Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.

* Russian military recruitment officials are openly contradicting the Kremlin’s publicly-stated guidelines for mobilization to meet quota requirements even as Kremlin propaganda is attempting to change the public perception of partial mobilization.

* Russian authorities are beginning to restrict movement of Russian citizens into Russian border regions to cope with HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS (caps mine) of Russian men attempting to flee the country.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Sevastopol harbor seems to get anti-sabotage stuff . The Ukrainian sea drone is what they are afraid probably


We have some news to break in this installment of The Downlink. Russia has closed off Sevastopol harbor,

One ex CIA says contacts in Russia are convinced Putin will use nukes.


CNN intelligence and security analyst: The Russians I keep in touch with in Russia are convinced that Putin will go nuclear

originally posted by: Kenzo

One ex CIA says contacts in Russia are convinced Putin will use nukes.


CNN intelligence and security analyst: The Russians I keep in touch with in Russia are convinced that Putin will go nuclear

Coming from him, that's a little disturbing.

He's been wrong before though, so hopefully wrong this time.

originally posted by: Scrable
a reply to: Soloprotocol

www.businessinsider.com...#:~:text=Putin%20decreed%20that%20soldiers%20w ho%20surrender%2C%20desert%2C%20or,connection%20to%20Saturday%27s%20protests%2C%20a%20rights%20group%20said.

If they surrender they face 10 years in prison when they are returned to Russia.

Its the same penalty if the surrender, Desert, or refuse to fight.

It's looking like those 10 years is the better deal.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher


Hopefully wrong . Putin is cornered rat,desperate and not so clever IMO ,so who knows .

From Ukrainian souces..


russian Black Sea Fleet and Aviation are Relocated from Crimea – Ukrainian Intelligence


That new place is just 43 kilometers from Putins " secret" palace

Putins Sochi palace

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: MidnightWatcher


Hopefully wrong . Putin is cornered rat,desperate and not so clever IMO ,so who knows .

Unfortunately, he's been right much more often than wrong, but he's been wrong on a few big ones too, so there's hope.

a reply to: WeDemBoyz

I wonder if the 1 or 2-year time for equipment arriving in Ukraine is intended to decisive Russian intelligence analysts? IMO considering Ukraine's post-war security and rebuilding in advance is required to tackle the scope of the challenges. But it is too soon to determine the shape of the peacetime Ukrainian military.

The Ukrainians fielding an array of international military equipment is a fantastic display of wartime adaptability. Yet the Ukrainians will make private assessments of that military hardware's battlefield performances. But their requirement to replace battlefield losses and reconstitute existing units means just good enough from what is available is the order of the day.

Meanwhile, I await the Russians emptying their museums and dispatching T-34 and Sherman tanks to Ukraine.

Another victim of purge . Pavel Pchelnikov , Director of Communications for Russian Railway branch "Digital Logistics"


Russian Railway Executive Found Shot to Death on His Balcony

Pavel Pchelnikov

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
You know this peace plan idea Donald Trump has said he wants to head between Russia/Ukraine?
ussanews.com...

Putin might take advantage of this as a face-saving resolution to this debacle.

I really wish he would stop this real soon. waste of good young men's lives.

a reply to: Kenzo

If I was an enemy of Putin I'd stay well away from balconies.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2


Yep , and stay away from tea also

a reply to: Kenzo

And door knobs.

Meanwhile in Russia , Tucker Carlsson in in every tv channel . Maybe Putin should give him medal, or even citizenship like Steven Seagal had.


Julia Davis does a great service translating and showing what is standard fare on Russian TV. It is certainly amazing to see how @TuckerCarlson does a better job at Russian propaganda than the Russians. Is he registered as a foreign agent?

It pretty obvious that Tucker is helping Russia/Putin .

a reply to: Oldcarpy2


Most likely only thing that can save it to leave the country asap , and even that is not allways enough .

originally posted by: Kenzo


Meanwhile in Russia , Tucker Carlsson in in every tv channel . Maybe Putin should give him medal, or even citizenship like Steven Seagal had.


Julia Davis does a great service translating and showing what is standard fare on Russian TV. It is certainly amazing to see how @TuckerCarlson does a better job at Russian propaganda than the Russians. Is he registered as a foreign agent?

It pretty obvious that Tucker is helping Russia/Putin .

According to the russian tv show I watch every day, tucker is 'the most popular American journalist'.

Direct quote.

Russian tv was all tucker yesterday.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: WeDemBoyz

I wonder if the 1 or 2-year time for equipment arriving in Ukraine is intended to decisive Russian intelligence analysts?

I'm not sure how to read that. Decisive is an adjective, but the sentence might make more sense with a verb there instead of an adjective, like deceive or something, though I'm not sure if that makes any sense either. Is that some kind of typo? Or can you re-phrase it? I can't understand it as written.

Looks like Ukraine is about to overtake Lyman. Ukrainian Forces broke through Russian lines at Stavky, thus effectively cutting off Russian Forces in Lyman from forces in Torske.

I said 4 months ago, war is a battle of battles as Grimpachi was predicting Russia would steam roll Ukraine. I guess he found a better basement to hide.

On a separate note, I wonder if Russian Troll was mobalized? I would enjoy seeing his posts from the front.