Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Can Russian forces keep up with artillery ? the barrels are not going to last forever....do they have new one to change them ?


Russian soldiers burn out their guns

That, and losses of artillery pieces, is why I wrote "open question". Russia can probably field a bunch of World War II-era artillery pieces, but they are towed and of shorter range than modern guns. Like the conscripts, they'll take heavy losses. I wonder if it will get like World War II in which the Soviets had too few forward observer personnel, which is why divisional guns often fired over open sights.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Could be quite rough Christmass coming for RF .

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Well written!

I would personally add a bit about 'Ghost' & Cherynobol trenches in phase 1, but that's just me.

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Well written!

I would personally add a bit about 'Ghost' & Cherynobol trenches in phase 1, but that's just me.

Check. For a summary, I wonder how much of the side actions to mention. Snake Island, for all the press coverage, was peripheral once the Russians decided they couldn't force a coastal landing near Odesa.

The Chernobyl trenches bit was either stupidity or criminal on the part of the Russian command. What advantage did they obtain by doing that? Poor slobs in those trenches will die early of weird cancers.

Cheers

Kherson here i come...

Mobilized russian: "There will be no preparation before being sent to the combat zone. On September 29, we are sent to Kherson"


It is reported that the first convoys of buses with Russian newly mobilized have arrived in Sevastopol Crimea

a reply to: Kenzo

Nice! I hear Crimea is quite the vacation spot.

Cheers

In a post war Ukraine, the government will need to cater to its ethnic Russian citizens, roll back dehumanisation that might have occurred during the war, while also transparently dealing with ethnic Russians and Ukrainians who might have collaborated with Russian occupiers. It will be a difficult task.

Story

In a joint assessment released today, the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission, and the World Bank, in cooperation with partners, estimate that the current cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine amounts to $349 billion (€349 Billion). This figure is expected to grow in the coming months as the war continues.

World Bank


Undoubtedly, winning the peace will prove the most challenging task for Ukraine:

More accurate and increased estimates for the economic costs of reconstruction will arrive after the fighting ends in Ukraine. Nor are there any signs western countries can replicate the Marshall Program in Ukraine. For the trillion-dollar price tag attached to the war in Afghanistan, comparatively little infrastructure development occurred. Thanks to a lack of congressional oversight, $2 out of $10 reached the allotted projects (my estimate).

I have grave fears for ethnic Russians in Ukraine, and they risk facing future reprisals. What remains unknown is if these reprisals will consist of localised incidents or the expulsion of that population from Ukraine. Zelenskyy or his successor will have to demonstrate national unity under the umbrella of democracy.

Moreover, private sector investment will occur in specific Ukrainian industries. For instance, I expect Andrew Twiggy Forest will probably lead Australian mining interests in expanding their presence in Ukraine. But those measures potentially present equal opportunities for employment and rebuilding related infrastructure.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

How did the Moskva's sinking impact Russian naval operations in the Black Sea? Did neglecting maintenance and logistics ensure Russia's Black Sea fleet remained? Did the Russian naval command decide it wasn't worth risking additional naval vessels in the current war? During the Falklands War, Argentine naval commanders were unnerved by the loss of General Belgrano to HMS Conqueror.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Well written!

I would personally add a bit about 'Ghost' & Cherynobol trenches in phase 1, but that's just me.

Check. For a summary, I wonder how much of the side actions to mention. Snake Island, for all the press coverage, was peripheral once the Russians decided they couldn't force a coastal landing near Odesa.

The Chernobyl trenches bit was either stupidity or criminal on the part of the Russian command. What advantage did they obtain by doing that? Poor slobs in those trenches will die early of weird cancers.

Cheers

It was Ukraine that benefited, by magically neutralizing 20k russian soldiers.

I agree that Snake Island didn't matter much after the Northern retreat, though they were still using the island for harrassment attacks on Odessa, the Cherynobol foot shooting however, took out a large quantity of russian troops that could have an impact on the rest of the war.

Just my 2 cents.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

How did the Moskva's sinking impact Russian naval operations in the Black Sea? Did neglecting maintenance and logistics ensure Russia's Black Sea fleet remained? Did the Russian naval command decide it wasn't worth risking additional naval vessels in the current war? During the Falklands War, Argentine naval commanders were unnerved by the loss of General Belgrano to HMS Conqueror.

russia stopped using it's surface fleet to provide air defense in Southern Ukraine as a result of the moskva sinking, and the problems this caused for russia continue to this day.

The ships also moved out of cruise missile range, but the on board S400s were the real threat.

a reply to: xpert11

As midnightwatcher mentioned, the sinking of the Moskva (besides being a propaganda victory for Ukraine) altered the anti-aircraft threat in the Black Sea.

The rapid decline of Russian air power is tied into the first and second phases is my guess.

Cheers

a reply to: xpert11

The thing about the Marshall Plan was that it was not so much the amount of money, it was the display of confidence that Europe could get back on its feet economically. In a sense, it was seed money. And once the seed was sown, Europeans felt confident enough to invest themselves in their economies.

Not sure Ukraine is in the same situation. They have a lot of destroyed infrastructure as well as lagging national wealth.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

The Russians employing a capital ship on air defence/picket duties might be one of naval history's oddities. But IMO, too little attention is paid to the potential impacts of Moskva's sinking. The same applies to logistical and maintenance issues affecting the Russian Navy and Air Force.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Nicely stated. Also, Japan's economic rise from the ashes supports that point.

Same video with subs


Mobiks of the "elite" 1st Tank Regiment saying there will be absolutely no training for them ahead of them being sent to Kherson on the 29th.

Nice! I hear Crimea is quite the vacation spot.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Just have to dodge the incoming artillery, drone strikes and occasional air strike .........

Russia detained a Japanese diplomat in Russia because he obtained a confidential document discussing Russia’s relationship with an Asian country. I have been wondering if China and Russia signed some kind of treaty when they met last week. Here is the link discussing the Japanese diplomat. www.cnn.com...

There are three leaks in Nord Stream 1 and 2 in the Baltic Sea. They don’t know the cause yet but haven’t ruled out sabotage. www.cnn.com...

Just saw the Putin is going to address the Russian Parliament on Friday and that the vote results will also be announced that day.

I’m wondering if Putin will announce the results and also try to declare victory of the special operation then when the Ukraine doesn’t pull out of those territories, or if they continue the counter attack, he declares war gets to fully mobilize and he gets to be the “good guy”. Also opens up him using wmds.

Lukashenko: Belarus, Russia were predicted to fall, but we keep going fearlessly

"What is happening is a certain watershed (we had it in Belarus in 2020 and Russia is having it now). It shows who is who. There's nothing wrong with that,” Aleksandr Lukashenko said.

“We have changed significantly over these three months. We have realized that we can live normally. You have formulated these points of our agreements very correctly. We are doing well with import substitution. We will fly on our own aircraft, both military and civil aircraft (actually, we are already using our military aircraft). And we will drive our cars. There is no fear,” the Belarusian leader noted.

“They will buy foodstuffs, fertilizers. They are buying them now. It is more difficult, of course. They are not blocking us, but people who want to buy, who want to pay. They are blocking them, not us. But we find ways to sell. Prices have skyrocketed. We have not inflated them, you are right. Who needs it? I have just watched morning news - all of Europe is boiling. The richest Germany - everyone is on the street, everyone is protesting. But someday they will hear it. I think they will. Therefore, our course is right, our cause is just. We will win. We have no other choice,” the Belarusian leader added." eng.belta.by...