Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

In shades of Nazi Germany, the Russian bureaucratic and admin machine is behind the deportation of people from occupied territories. I always find a grim sinking feeling upon considering these matters. As the last of the WW2 generation die out, the ugly spectacle of dictators with a lust for conquest and bloodshed is reincarnated in Putin.

Didn't take long, did it?

Yeah, Putin's regime is copying Adolf's quite a bit, even to the point of kidnapping children to raise them as good Russians.

Initially set up in Germany in 1935, Lebensborn expanded into several occupied European countries with Germanic populations during the Second World War. It included the selection of "racially worthy" orphans for adoption and care for children born from Aryan women who had been in relationships with SS members. . . . . During the war, many children were kidnapped from their parents and judged by Aryan criteria for their suitability to be raised in Lebensborn homes, and fostering by German families.

Link



Cheers

The Ukranians may have finally broken the Russian soldiers will to fight...

BREAKING:Reports that #RussianArmy is surrendering in large numbers in #Kherson offensive. This is unconfirmed from official sources but comes from some locals over there.

twitter.com...

originally posted by: WeDemBoyz
The Ukranians may have finally broken the Russian soldiers will to fight...

BREAKING:Reports that #RussianArmy is surrendering in large numbers in #Kherson offensive. This is unconfirmed from official sources but comes from some locals over there.

twitter.com...

The " Big Push " is on in Kherson. Russian defences crumbling apparently.

originally posted by: alldaylong
The " Big Push " is on in Kherson. Russian defences crumbling apparently.

What that video says starting at 1:28 is:

"Lots of questions remain whether the Ukranians have the capacity to go ahead with a major counteroffensive, but it seems perhaps we are seeing the beginning of this major offensive."

So yes to the beginning, but I think the big push is not yet. Denys thinks they still need more weapons from the West which they don't have yet to make the "big push", so he thinks that is yet to come, and he outlines his best guess after reviewing lots of telegram channels what area he thinks Ukraine will try to capture first, and he also thinks they hope to encircle some Russian troops and get them to surrender.

Ukraine Starts the main Attack on the South - Ruzzians are trapped

a reply to: alldaylong

The Ukrainians won't recreate the outcome of General Haig's failed efforts at the Battle of the Somme. But like the Western Front and the Battle of El Alamein in the next war, set-piece battles are taking place in Ukraine. An emphasis on artillery and pre-planned movements of ground forces is the order of the day.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I'm not sure a lack of weapons is the deciding factor. The Israelis beat much larger Arab forces because the Israelis were more competent.

What will impact any Ukrainian offensive is a lack of logistical ability to sustain offensive operations. Until they are able to push tens of miles behind Russian lines and pocket large numbers of Russian troops, all the Russians have to do is sit on the territory they've occupied to remain in Ukraine.

Cheers

29 August Update

Key Takeaways

* Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces began a counteroffensive operation in Kherson Oblast on August 29.

* International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced that the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant left for the plant.

* Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, south of Bakhmut, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

* Russian forces continued efforts to advance around Donetsk City.

* Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

* Russian forces conducted a limited ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

* Russian federal subjects continued efforts to form new battalions, attract new recruits, and coerce conscripts into signing military contracts.

* Ukrainian partisan activity continues to threaten Russian occupation authorities’ control in occupied territories.

More at URL above.

Cheers

The reason why russia keeps claiming they have destroyed HIMARS...

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine may be outgunned but in the latest sign it is not yet outfoxed, a fleet of decoys resembling advanced U.S. rocket systems has tricked Russian forces into wasting expensive long-range cruise missiles on dummy targets, according to interviews with senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials and photographs of the replicas reviewed by The Washington Post.

Link

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
I'm not sure a lack of weapons is the deciding factor. The Israelis beat much larger Arab forces because the Israelis were more competent.

There are numerous examples of outnumbered (and outgunned) forces prevailing against stronger opponents. Better tactics and motivation, alongside adaptability and leadership, tend to go hand in hand with victory. I have no doubt that Russia have the capability to prevail, but been encouraged by their inability to do so!

As time goes by, Ukraine will become increasingly well-equipped and experienced, while Russia may actually start to run out of material and willing volunteers, and we have winter approaching. It's not going to be a happy time to be struck in a muddy trench in Ukraine, waiting while your enemy trains with Western kit that can do the work of a whole division of Soviet era artillery.

Ukrainian MiG-29s firing AGM-88 HARM.

Twitter Link - Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 firing AGM-88 HARM

Twitter MiG-29 AGM-88 HARM screenshots

Apply slow, steady pressure across a broad front to compel RU to expend ammo more quickly than usual, while simultaneously cutting off resupply. Rinse and repeat until the defender runs out, then make the big focused strike to break them. Not there yet, but closer..

originally posted by: tommyjo
Ukrainian MiG-29s firing AGM-88 HARM.

Twitter Link - Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 firing AGM-88 HARM

Twitter MiG-29 AGM-88 HARM screenshots

Weird how they can use them on the Mig.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Arbitrageur

I'm not sure a lack of weapons is the deciding factor. The Israelis beat much larger Arab forces because the Israelis were more competent.

What will impact any Ukrainian offensive is a lack of logistical ability to sustain offensive operations. Until they are able to push tens of miles behind Russian lines and pocket large numbers of Russian troops, all the Russians have to do is sit on the territory they've occupied to remain in Ukraine.

Cheers

The Israeli-Arab conflicts are not the same as the situation in Ukraine. While Ukraine's morale was higher than Russia's early in the war, and is probably still higher than Russia's but not as high as it was (see below), I don't think Ukrainian nor Russian forces have the training and organization the Israelis did, so with both sides having problems with training and leadership, don't weapons then become much more important as a deciding factor?

Here's an article talking about the counter-battery problems in Ukraine army's leadership and I suspect problems with Russia's leadership are even worse, so I'm not seeing either side being comparable to the Israeli superiority in competency you mention.

Why Ukraine struggles to combat Russia’s artillery superiority

Amid fierce hostilities, Serhiy Gnezdilov, a squad leader with Ukraine’s 21st Motorized Infantry Battalion Sarmat, published a headline-making post on his Facebook page.

The soldier’s message, full of desperation and anger, describes the horrific situation in Pisky, attacked by Russians.

Within less than 24 hours, according to Gnezdilov, Russian artillery fired nearly 6,500 rounds upon Ukrainian defenses in the town.

“It’s beyond one’s understanding how some of our infantry manages to survive under this burst of enemy fire,” he wrote.

Russian artillery methodically destroyed Ukrainian concrete defenses without facing any resistance from the Ukrainian side. Ukrainian counter-battery was not working at all, according to the message.

“It’s a f*cking slaughter in which the battalion personnel is just deterring the offensive with their bodies,” the soldier wrote.

The Facebook post triggered a stir in Ukrainian media. Shortly after, the Ukrainian command sent reinforcements that gradually stabilized the situation in Pisky. Russian forces currently have nearly a third of the town under their control, following over two weeks of brutal combat.

Despite all the damage done by HIMARSs, Russia, especially in the Donbas, is still capable of concentrating its massive artillery power in certain front-line sections.

Read also: Ukraine targets Russia’s ammunition depots, undermining its artillery advantage

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, serving Ukrainian artillery officers polled by the Kyiv Independent admitted that Ukrainian counter-battery activity remains largely problematic, mainly due to the lack of effective top-level organization.

The town of Pisky mentioned in that article was recently completely taken by Russia, according to this video at time 5:20:



I am not sure how the "lack of effective top-level organization" is interfering with effective counter-battery activity, or if there are other issues not highlighted in that article, but isn't superiority in quantity of artillery what allowed the Russians to take that town?

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I read something about Russia's artillery philosophy. They have a lot of artillery, which served them well in WW2 and was carried forwards as military doctrine through the Cold War. Basically, flatten an area with explosives and move on.

The problem is that nowadays, the objective is not about the amount of shells you can drop on a place - as in the massed ranks of Russian guns, but what's the minimum number of shells to achieve an objective, i.e. why flatten a town when you can target the specific house you want to flatten. Hence, why the artillery doctrine in the West (and NATO) has been precision artillery.

Anyway, my point is whether the Russian reliance on massed artillery will be war-winning. Being on the receiving end of a Russian barrage must be very frightening indeed, but given time with Ukraine being equipped with increasing amounts of sophisticated Western gear, one wonders whether it is sustainable.

30 August Update

Key Takeaways

* Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations with ground assaults and strikes against Russian GLOCs across the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces made gains on the ground and have begun striking pontoon ferries across the river.

* Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely setting legal and social conditions for the coerced cultural assimilation of displaced Ukrainians in Russia to erase their Ukrainian cultural identity.

* Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.

* Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest of Izyum, south of Bakhmut, and near the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

* Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in northern Kherson Oblast.

* An anonymous senior US military official stated that the US believes that Russia is firing artillery from positions around and in the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

* Russian occupation authorities are continuing efforts to forcibly-integrate schools in occupied Ukraine into the Russian educational system and extending methods of social control.

* Russian forces are continuing to move military equipment into Crimea.

* Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to recruit and deploy volunteer battalions.

* Russian occupation authorities are taking measures to forcibly-integrate Ukrainian schools into the Russian education space in preparation for the approaching school year.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: paraphi

Russian logistical handicaps, corruption, military incompetence, and over-reliance on artillery are worth noting. The Ukrainian armed forces targeting Russian supply lines also impacted the supply of shells to artillery. Also, the Ukrainians' use of decoys and camouflage on the battlefield draws Russian fire away or disguises front-line units.

Artillery is critical in bringing firepower and destructive power across military history. But that doesn't make Russian artillery a wonder war-winning weapon. Nor are there any shortcuts to victory in warfare.

Moreover, employing massive amounts of firepower doesn't guarantee a successful outcome. British artillery failed to destroy German defensive positions at the Battle of the Somme (WW1). The aerial bombing of the Abbey at Monte Cassino (WW2) accomplished nothing but providing the rubble and the German defenders with cover. So aside from slaughtering civilians, the Russians using firepower to level city blocks is an unproductive exercise.

Precision weapons are useful against modest stationary targets, though they lack the destructive power to destroy Russian forces.

31 August Update

Key Takeaways

* The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure almost as soon as it was launched. It is far too soon to assess the progress of the counteroffensive operation, however, which will likely be difficult to evaluate in the short term if it relies on feints and misdirection.

* Russian occupation authorities are imposing a curriculum on Ukrainian students aimed at eliminating the notion of Ukrainian national identity, explicitly in line with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speeches and writings falsely claiming that Ukraine is part of Russia, and that the Ukrainian identity was an invention of the Soviet period.

* The G7 Non-Proliferation Directors Group condemned Russian attempts to disconnect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant from the Ukrainian power grid as “unacceptable” ahead of the arrival of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) delegation to the plant.

* Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.

* Russian forces conducted ground attacks south of Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

* Russian-appointed officials in Crimea began “reconstructing” air defense systems to counter smaller targets in response to recurring drone attacks on the peninsula. Russian officials are likely strengthening Crimean air defenses at the expense of other theaters.

* Zabaykalsky Krai announced the formation of the “Daursky” volunteer engineer-sapper battalion.

* Ukrainian partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against the headquarters of the “Together with Russia” political organization in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, where occupation authorities were reportedly preparing for sham referenda.

More at URL above.

Cheers

What I will say is that we are aware of Ukrainian military operations that have made some forward movement and in some cases in the Kherson region … Russian units are falling back.

Linky

Cheers

Mighty Russian war machine is diving down, thanks to Putin .


A farewell to arms. By year end Russia will be left almost without shells, artillery and armored vehicles

a reply to: Kenzo

Fetchez la vache?


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