Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

19 August Update

Key Takeaways

* Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transport infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas.

* The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remained relatively unchanged on August 19 despite Russian claims that Ukrainian forces would stage a provocation at the plant.

* Russian authorities are likely preparing show trials of Ukrainian defenders of Azovstal on Ukraine’s Independence Day in order to further consolidate occupational control of occupied areas of Ukraine and set conditions to demoralize Ukrainian troops.

* Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, southwest and southeast of Izyum, east of Siversk, and south and east of Bakhmut.

* Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults on settlements on the Southern Axis.

* Russia continues to generate regional volunteer units and will likely deploy many of them to Kherson and Ukraine’s south as part of the 3rd Army Corps.

* Russian occupation authorities are strengthening their control of educational infrastructure in occupied areas in preparation for the approaching school year and may be sending Ukrainian children to Russia as part of a broader repopulation campaign.

More at URL above.

My comment. While the economy and society may appear to have changed, employment of measures like show trials and badly over-the-top propaganda indicates the Russian state is still strongly Soviet communist in its political essence. Considering Russia's current leadership and their fixation on a lost past, this is unsurprising.

Cheers

What do these 3 cities have in common?

Grozny - Chechnya 1995.

Aleppo - Syria 2012.

Mariupol - Ukraine 2022.

Answer: Russia destroyed them all.



Glasnost Gone


Russia is like habitual offender, repeat offender, or career criminal . It does the same crime again and again ---

***BREAKING***

Developing situation, pending updates and clarity

Attack on #Russian Navy headquarters as in Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol


H I Sutton twitter


They are allready targeting Sevastopol , not wasting time eh


Thought i doubt there was much damage for the kamikaze UAV with small payload, it`s a symbolic hit still

a reply to: Kenzo

That is something like harassment and interdiction fire.

Psychological, like the U.S. raid on Tokyo in 1942, but not as dramatic. The navy staff there may have to deploy to the field to get away from the attacks, and that will reduce their operational effectiveness.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yes harassment


There was video, they tryed to shoot the drone with AK-47 or similar.....the noise from those will bring the "war atmosphere" right in to their idyllic city .

The Germans were bad asses Years in WW2 , then bit by bit something started to go wrong , and finally allied forces arrived Berlin...

Russian army failed badly compared to Germans , even thought they have bragged having modern military tech , with cruise missile etc...

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
19 August Update

Key Takeaways

* Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transport infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas.

Do we know how those strikes are taking place yet? Apparently Russia's earliest implausible explanations were "fire safety violations" as if they couldn't stop soldiers from smoking nearing the plane re-fueling areas or something, but they finally realized nobody was buying it and changed the explanation to "sabotage".

Two possible explanations I've heard mentioned are long range drones, or else special forces acting in Crimea (like "Shaman Battalion").

With all the explosions in Crimea lately, I recall Russia saying that Crimea is now considered Russian teritory so attacks on Crimea are attacks on Russia. I'm sure Ukraine doesn't see it that way, but that's Russian propaganda for you. The inference was things would escalate if Crimea was attacked, so let's see what happens. One of the threats was a retaliation by Russia to send missiles raining down on decision-making centers in Kyiv, but I'll bet Russia is running low on those and can't make more due to lack of chips, so we'll see.

Ukrainian Denys was apparently born and raised in Crimea and he seems to be hopeful that Ukraine will take it back:

* Russian occupation authorities are strengthening their control of educational infrastructure in occupied areas in preparation for the approaching school year and may be sending Ukrainian children to Russia as part of a broader repopulation campaign.

Does that mean they would forcibly separate children from their parents to send them "to Russia as part of a broader repopulation campaign"? Or would they only send the orphans in cases where their attacks have killed both parents?

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Those are good questions. My guess is that the Ukrainians have some people in Crimea and are striking with drones as well.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

Those are good questions. My guess is that the Ukrainians have some people in Crimea and are striking with drones as well.

Cheers

Remember that 40% of the population in Crimea are not Russian by choice, so about a million people there are against the Russians. I wonder if we are seeing their chance to help as saboteurs as we saw when the Nazis took Paris and that created gangs of saboteurs.

a reply to: Xtrozero

Hi X, I was referring to their special forces.

Ordinary sabotage can be performed by motivated people with little training.

The hit on Saki Airfield, though, seemed beyond that.

Also possible they've had special ops personnel in Crimea since before the war who had organized and trained irregulars.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

Hi X, I was referring to their special forces.

Ordinary sabotage can be performed by motivated people with little training.

The hit on Saki Airfield, though, seemed beyond that.

Also possible they've had special ops personnel in Crimea since before the war who had organized and trained irregulars.

Cheers

If it is the same thing I'm thinking about I really think it was HIMARS as 100s maybe 1000s of pounds of C4 etc would seem a little out of what they would/could do.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

Hi X, I was referring to their special forces.

Ordinary sabotage can be performed by motivated people with little training.

The hit on Saki Airfield, though, seemed beyond that.

Also possible they've had special ops personnel in Crimea since before the war who had organized and trained irregulars.

Cheers

If it is the same thing I'm thinking about I really think it was HIMARS as 100s maybe 1000s of pounds of C4 etc would seem a little out of what they would/could do.

Saki airfield is about 200km from the closest frontline. The HIMARS in Ukraine has some 80km range I think?

So that ought to be a little hard unless the HIMARS vehicles are *inside* Crimea...

a reply to: merka

The ATACMS rounds from these has about 200 miles range:


www.grid.news...# :~:text=The%20HIMARS%20is%20a%20particularly,range%20of%20almost%20200%20miles.

originally posted by: merka

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

Hi X, I was referring to their special forces.

Ordinary sabotage can be performed by motivated people with little training.

The hit on Saki Airfield, though, seemed beyond that.

Also possible they've had special ops personnel in Crimea since before the war who had organized and trained irregulars.

Cheers

If it is the same thing I'm thinking about I really think it was HIMARS as 100s maybe 1000s of pounds of C4 etc would seem a little out of what they would/could do.

Saki airfield is about 200km from the closest frontline. The HIMARS in Ukraine has some 80km range I think?

So that ought to be a little hard unless the HIMARS vehicles are *inside* Crimea...

The UK has sent The AS90 to Ukraine, which has a range over 200 km.

www.tanks-encyclopedia.com...

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: merka

The ATACMS rounds from these has about 200 miles range:


www.grid.news...# :~:text=The%20HIMARS%20is%20a%20particularly,range%20of%20almost%20200%20miles.

I thought the US didnt send the really long range missiles to Ukraine?

And for the above, google says AS90 has a 25-30km range???

DP

DP

a reply to: merka

The AS90 is an artillery fired shell?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: merka

The AS90 is an artillery fired shell?

The vehicle isnt a shell, but when I refer to range of course I refer to the *range of the weapon on it*. Especially since the argument was that Ukraine had weapons that could reach 200km into Crimea.

It's not like Ukraine is cruising around with AS90 howitzers in Crimea just to show how far they can travel before needing to refuel.

TL;DR an artillery shell hitting that base is impossible. HIMARS (except in the single long range missile config) hitting that base is impossible. Could have been something else. But not that.

a reply to: merka

Wut? ATACMS? Not howitzers?