Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: paraphi

Going to be a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians as well.

Ever see the map of one of their plans for an invasion of western Europe? Covered with little mushroom clouds that indicated planned targets of nuclear weapons attacks.

I used to think, "nah, that wasn't a serious plan". I have now revised my thinking on that. Lord of the Ruins, indeed.

Cheers

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Al Russia has been doing in the East is using artillery to destroy cities so they can enter them when Ukraine pulls (because there is nothing left to defend).

The new artillery that Ukraine got is putting pressure on the Russians. Secured supply lines for Russia are no longer secure as they fall within ranger of the Howitzers.

However if Russia cant get a hold of their manpower issues its only a matter of time before Russia is pushed out of Ukraine.

russia and it's propagandists also absurdly claim that russia isn't intentionally and indiscriminately destroying entire Ukrainian cities, when that is the actual tactic being used by russian troops on a very large scale.

russia doesn't appear to have the ability to use any other tactics (they did try in a few areas and were easily defeated), so that isn't likely to change until russia is removed from Ukraine.

Donbas is payback for Kosovo. Russia vowed If Americans recognize Kosovo as independent, then Russia recognize Donbas as independent.

a reply to: fuzz4262

Not the Kosovo bs again.

a reply to: fuzz4262


Forgetting about Crimea?

Forgetting the the whole world recognized Kosovo, not the U.S.?

Forgetting that the whole world refuses to recognize any such russian attempt to annex or 'make independent' either dombas or Crimea?




russia will certainly continue trying though, because you correctly stated russia's absurd opinion on the matter.

russia's absurd opinion will have little to no significance on the outcome though.

russia has already established a 'russian government' in Kherson, so it's more likely that russia attempts to annex dombas as part of russia, though that could be another russian bluff as a result of how upset they are that Ukraine won't accept russia's surrender (with terms that include russia keeping Ukrainian land)

24 May update

Key Takeaways

* Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to encircle large Ukrainian formations in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements and focus on Severodonetsk.

* This change in the Russian approach is enabling gradual advances—but at the cost of abandoning several intended lines of advance and abandoning the Kremlin’s intended deep encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.

* Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a controlled withdrawal southwest of Popasna near Bakhmut to protect Ukrainian supply lines against Russian offensives in the southeast of Bakhmut.

* Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol announced that they will hold war crimes trials against Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol in a likely effort to strengthen judicial control of the city and support false Kremlin narratives of Ukrainian crimes.

* Russian forces are attempting to retake Ternova in northern Kharkiv Oblast and seek to stabilize defensive positions near the Russian border against the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

* Russian forces are forming reserves and deploying S-400 missile systems in northwest Crimea to reinforce the southern axis.

* Several DNR servicemen openly released a video appeal to DNR leader Denis Pushilin stating they have been forced into combat operations without proper support, indicating increasing demoralization among Russian and proxy forces.

More at URL above.

Map showing location of Ternova. Large city at the lower left is Kharkiv. (Source: OpenTopoMap)



Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Thanks for your post 👍.
* Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol announced that they will hold war crimes trials against Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol in a likely effort to strengthen judicial control of the city and support false Kremlin narratives of Ukrainian crimes.

I knew that part was coming, they probably should have fought to the death. They certainly will not be around long.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

"Russian forces are forming reserves and deploying S-400 missile systems in northwest Crimea to reinforce the southern axis."


Further evidence that the standard S300 (Ukraine's were secretly upgraded by a pretty unexpected non NATO country before the current invasion) has been of little use to russia. The U.S. has known how to easily defeat S300 for a VERY long time, but Ukraine's performance against them has surprised me.

I wonder if the ground based S400s have the same fatal flaws (multiple) that doomed the moskva?

I guess we'll find out soon.

a reply to: vance

That war crimes trial bit is certainly related to having their soldiers being tried by the Ukrainians.

Such odd mirroring. Even though the Russian state knows they're convincing very few people with their propaganda, they feel obliged to keep cranking it out.

Cheers

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I wonder if the ground based S400s have the same fatal flaws (multiple) that doomed the moskva?

LOOK -- drones!



Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Overwhelming russian artillery fire for the past 6-8 weeks caused Ukrainians to evacuate much of dombas, but that was before receiving M777s with much better range and precision, though they still only have a tiny fraction of the quantity that russia is using.

The recent pullback from Popasna is a perfect example of this. Even though it sits on high ground, russians shelled the entire city to rubble over several weeks (rarely killing a Ukrainian soldier) so Ukraine pulled out.

M777s put a perimeter around the russian advance near Popasna for now, but russia has started using (and losing) fighter planes in their effort to hit M777s, which are well out of russian artillery range and far too mobile to strike with missiles. They lost an su27 to a Stinger while doing this today that was piloted by a retired russian general currently employed by wagner group.

Ukraine needs more M777s, more light drones (they seem to be having the best luck with UK models), and more Bushmasters (or similar, there aren't many Bushmasters available yet) to get the guns into position and direct their fire.

When Ukraine has enough of the above and the troops trained to use them, russia will likely lose all the dombass territory and possibly part of Crimea fairly quickly.

Pretty easy to win an artillery war when you're significantly better at recon, mobility, range and precision than your opponent, even when vastly outnumbered, and russia turned this into an artillery war after being defeated in the north.

Ukraine appears to have plenty of troops, what they lack is the equipment and supplies, along with folks trained on M777. No shortage of willing soldiers though.

Ukraine still needs more tools to take back Crimea, though there are some hints in the media that we may soon be supplying Ukraine with exactly the tools required for this. Not sure if it's true or not yet though, and I really don't see any msm that isn't first posted on ATS right now, so not even sure if they are still discussing it.







ETA: If I sense that these Crimea tools may actually be sent (one in particular) I'll have to retract a previous post about my employer so I've been trying to find as much accurate info as I can on this for the past week or so.

Haven't found way to confirm or debunk the msm speculation on this yet.

Either opsec is way better than I've ever seen before or msm just made it up, no idea which way to lean.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I found interesting the timing of the sudden upwelling of sentiment from Kissinger and EU officials that Ukraine should just give up territory to gain a cease-fire.

Somebody's money flows are being interfered with because of those naughty Ukrainians, methinks. That crew certainly isn't pushing for a ceasefire out of humanitarian concerns.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Interesting...

I saw the same thing and my first guess was something other than money, unless that money was coming directly from russia.

Definitely worth watching, especially when they're nearly parroting russia's latest 'surrender' offer.

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(10:41). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kramatorsk(10:34). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Russian aviation conducted airstrike against residential area in Kramatorsk

* - 25 Russian strikes in last 24 hours, 18 settlements were shelled, including Avdiivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Mykolaivka, Lyman, Toretsk, Bakhmut, Soledar, Zalizne, Nelipivka, New York, Raigorodok, Berdychi, Shcherbynivka, Lastochkine, Kalynove, Orlivka. There are dead and wounded, 45 civilian objects destroyed, including residential houses, hospital, railway station, critical infrastructure and industrial enterprises

* - 1 killed as result of Russian artillery shelling of Udy village in Kharkiv region

* - wounded as result of Russian shelling in Pokrovsk town in Donetsk region

* - Russian aviation conducted missile strike against Krasnopillia in Sumy region

* - Heavy shelling in Novoluhanske

* - 1 killed, 3 wounded as result of Russian missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia. At least 62 buildings damaged

* - 6 killed, 8 wounded as result of Russian shelling in Sieverodonetsk

* - Russian troops shelled Avdiyivka, Pisky, Maryinka, Orikhiv and Novosilka. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kamianka, Avdiyivka and Novomykhailivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - Russian troops continue offensive towards Sieverodonetsk, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - Hostilities increased at Lyman town, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report Telegram

* - Russian troops have attempted to seize Pasika village, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - Russia conducted 3 missile strikes at industrial enterprise in Kryvyi Rih, significant destruction reported

* - Russia launched 4 cruise missiles against Zaporizhzhia this morning, 1 was shot down by Ukrainian air defense

* - Video reportedly of Russian Su-25 aircraft firing rockets in the vicinity of Toshkivka

* - Video of Russian Mi-28N and Ka-52 helicopters firing rockets near Toshkivka

* - At Sieverodonetsk direction Russian troops are on offensive at Sieverodonetsk, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - At Bakhmut direction Russian troops are on offensive near Lypove and Bilohorivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - Russian army conducted airstrikes with assault and army aviation at Avdiyivka, Kurakhove, Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia directions, shelled areas of Avdiyivka, Pisky and Maryinka with mortars and artillery - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - At Pivdenny Buh direction Russian troops shelled Ukrainian positions with mortars, MLRS, howitzers. Conducted airstrikes near Mykolaivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Kramatorsk, Lyman and Sloviansk, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - Russian army shelled Tsyrkuny with artillery, conducted combat reconnaissance mission near Pasika, but suffered loses and withdraw, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine
* - MilitaryLand - Maps

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I think Kissinger got wheeled out to make a statement by whoever had interest in having him do so.

Some in W Europe are definitely stung by the sanctions. Lucrative deals seem to have been disturbed. Those parties do not find Ukrainian determination to recover lost territory in their interest.

I am assuming it is about money that was coming out of Russia. I know the German elites have been squirming and trying to avoid having Germany taking a firmer stance against the Russian invasion.

Money talks and treason comes at a run, it seems. Oops, there I go again

Cheers

Anyone have any ideas what Hungary is up to? Orban called new elections and declared a wartime state of emergency.

a reply to: Xcathdra


I was hoping someone here did.

My only guess (complete guess) is that orban is doing exactly what putin wants him to, or at least as much as he thinks he can get away with.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I disagree i think its likely they will secure that area. Russia has taken the high ground and i noticed they keep using the same tactic. Attack from 3 sides while leaving an escape route to defenders hoping they take it instead of fight. Here is where the numbers advantage comes in for Russia. more troops means more area they can cover.