Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Seems like the Azovstal Plant is the new Stalingrad.

With Russia being the Nazis this time.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Seems like the Azovstal Plant is the new Stalingrad.

With Russia being the Nazis this time.

The "Tractor Works".

Yeah, something about that brutal experience of the USSR in the 2WW. While the war had profound effects on all of the societies of nations that were combatants, it seems it really warped the national psyche of Russia. That is sad to witness, but it is no excuse for them going medieval on Ukraine.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

My question was perfectly on topic. I asked if the members employer was gaining profit from the conflict
the member chose to answer, they previously provided info their employer was a defense contractor.
So its not like im digging for the information they so chose to openly share with us all.

what's off topic is you policing other members for no other reason than you disagree with their posts

do you consider yourself an authoritarian?

a reply to: sapien82

No but he is helping me to enforce the standard set by Majesticgent, the original OP, and it was carried over to this thread (as stated in the OP). So, respectfully, how bout we move back to being on topic for the update thread.


F2d5thCavv2 sent you a pm.

originally posted by: sapien82
a reply to: alphabetaone

lets be clear , I was speaking specifically about profit from conflict and war

everyone has something to lose in war , but there are those with things to gain from it also

that is what I was getting at.

Not to worry...i know what you were getting at, i was speaking in more broad terms.

Just curious if anyone knows any open source information about our capabilities against the Satan2 new ICBM the Russians have? I remember growing up in the 80s hearing about the STAR WARS program from President Reagan and I know now that program was a Ruse to bankrupt the USSR by making them think we had lasers and photon torpedoes on our satellites.

But my question is basically how effective is our deterrent from the (MDA) Missile Defense Agency. It was at least 15 years ago I was at the Pentagon for work but it seemed to me at the time not a very well funded Agency. I assume it was due to the Iraq/ Afghanistan war fighting Terrorism at the time and shooting down nukes wasn’t a big priority.

I bet things are changing now though! Anyone know what the MDA can do? I have read we can shoot like 1 or 2 down but we can’t shoot like a barrage of ICBMs down

a reply to: sapien82

I consider myself someone who enjoys a thread staying on topic.

And, no, the personal affairs of other ATS members are not on topic. What he opted to reveal about himself was not an invitation to question his motives.

I'm done with this discussion in this thread. PM me if you wish to continue.

Cheers

9 May update

Key Takeaways

* Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances to the southeast or southwest of Izyum on May 9 but are likely attempting to concentrate the forces necessary to resume offensive operations in the coming days.

* Russian forces made marginal gains around Severodonetsk in the past 24 hours.

* Russian forces are likely continuing to amass troops in Belgorod Oblast to stop Ukrainian counterattacks around Kharkiv City from reaching the Ukrainian-Russian border.

* Russian units in Zaporizhia Oblast are regrouping and will likely receive reinforcements from forces previously deployed in Mariupol.

* The Kremlin continues to face severe force mobilization challenges, and ongoing “covert mobilization” efforts are unlikely to generate substantial combat power.

* Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia, as opposed to creating proxy “People’s Republics.”

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Ukrainian forces are getting into position to attack Izyum from the North so that should be interesting.

Also it is being reported that Russian conscripts are finding out they signed a contract without their consent or knowledge.

Also in a possible sign Putin is getting ready to retire the Duma is getting ready to take up a bill that would protect Putin from any criminal / civil / administrative action once he leaves office. The part they are discussing now would make anything Putin did before he became President and after he leaves the post off limits.

originally posted by: Brassmonkey
Just curious if anyone knows any open source information about our capabilities against the Satan2 new ICBM the Russians have? I remember growing up in the 80s hearing about the STAR WARS program from President Reagan and I know now that program was a Ruse to bankrupt the USSR by making them think we had lasers and photon torpedoes on our satellites.

But my question is basically how effective is our deterrent from the (MDA) Missile Defense Agency. It was at least 15 years ago I was at the Pentagon for work but it seemed to me at the time not a very well funded Agency. I assume it was due to the Iraq/ Afghanistan war fighting Terrorism at the time and shooting down nukes wasn’t a big priority.

I bet things are changing now though! Anyone know what the MDA can do? I have read we can shoot like 1 or 2 down but we can’t shoot like a barrage of ICBMs down

That's a question best answered by Zaphod IMO.

originally posted by: Xcathdra

F2d5thCavv2 sent you a pm.

Replied.

Cheers

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Ukrainian forces are getting into position to attack Izyum from the North so that should be interesting.

Also it is being reported that Russian conscripts are finding out they signed a contract without their consent or knowledge.

Also in a possible sign Putin is getting ready to retire the Duma is getting ready to take up a bill that would protect Putin from any criminal / civil / administrative action once he leaves office. The part they are discussing now would make anything Putin did before he became President and after he leaves the post off limits.

Did you see today's Speak The Truth yet?

He claims that multiple russian BTGs have abandoned Izyum and are currently travelling north to meet the Ukrainian forces advancing from the Kharkiv front where roughly half the russian forces have already retreated back into russia under fire.

Something we predicted here a few days ago.

* - Lyman(08:51). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Donetsk Oblast(08:08). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast, Bakhmut, Kramatorsk(08:05). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - At least 6 wounded in Russian missile strike at mall in Odesa. Firefighters continue to extinguish the fire

* - More explosions reported in Odesa and region, no sirens sounded

* - Massive destruction in Odesa after missile strikes earlier today

* - At least 7 missile strikes in Odesa, reportedly one of city malls is on fire

* - Odesa in under heavy missile attack

* - Explosions reported in Odesa

* - Reports of explosions near Vilnohirsk

* - .@POTUS Biden, flanked by @VP Harris, @SenatorCardin (D-MD), @RepSlotkin (D-Mich) and @RepSpartz (R-Indiana) as he signs Ukraine Lend-Lease Act, which passed with broad bipartisan support. "It matters, it really matters," he said as he signed the legislation

* - 2 wounded as result of Russian missile strike in Odesa, 5 buildings destroyed. Preliminary 3 hypersonic air-launched cruise missiles used

* - Explosions reported in Mykolaiv

* - U.S. gave electronic warfare equipment to Ukraine for the first time on Friday since Russia's invasion on Feb. 24

* - U.S. has NOW trained 310 Ukrainian troops on M777 howitzers, up from about 200 a week ago: senior U.S. defense official Another 50 Ukrainian troops are in training, and U.S. also starting maintenance courses on the howitzers

* - Ukrainian army liberated Bairak, Zamuilivka, Verkhnii Saltiv and Rubizhne, east to Kharkiv

* - Ukrainian military reinforced positions at Voevodivka near Sieverodonetsk

* - Clearing operating ongoing in Bilohorivka village after Russian troops infiltration in the area

* - President of the European Council Charles Michel: In the port of Odesa with @Denys_Shmyhal, I saw silos full of grain, wheat and corn ready for export. This badly needed food is stranded because of the Russian war and blockade of Black sea ports. Causing dramatic consequences for vulnerable countries. We need a global response (Russia has already stole 400k tons of wheat / grain from Ukraine)

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Site dedicated to countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

The rail line coming south from Belgorod seems to be single tracked and goes to Kupyansk, where it is met from another line coming from Russia.

If Ukraine cuts that rail line (even inside Ukraine), it will force the Russian logistical effort to emerge from the Kupyansk area or areas further south. I suppose the Ukrainian General Staff has taken a hard look at the railway network.

Something interesting that emerges from commercial satellite sources is that on, for example, Bing maps, many marked railways in that area no longer have rails or sleepers. The bed is still present, but no railway. I am surprised that so many of the lines that do exist are single tracked. That complicates logistics for military operations.

ETA: Rail map of area. Thin lines indicate single tracked, but some of the double tracked lines shown on the map are no longer double tracked.



Cheers

* - The Russian Defense Ministry announces the deployment of battleships carrying Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea

* - Russian pontoon bridge was destroyed near Bilohorivka, Luhansk region

* - There are dead and wounded as result of night shelling in Mykolaiv region

* - Russian missile strike in central Sloviansk - Mayor

* - President of Ukraine Zelensky had a call via video link with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen

* - The Russian ambassador to Poland was painted red in protest against war in Ukraine

* - Russian army shelled Khotin community of Sumy region

* - Explosions audible in Kherson

* - 2 women killed in Tsyrkuny as result of landmine explosions

* - Russian army launched 4 P-800 Onyx missiles(NATO classification SS-N-26 Strobile) from occupied Crimea into Odesa with Bastion complexes

* - Russian army shelled Hannivka village in Shyroke community of Dnipropetrovsk region with MLRS GRAD, one house destroyed, more damaged

* - Russian army resumed assault on Azovstal in Mariupol just UN column left via evacuation bridge (Even though the russian mod has stated a few times now they took it)(Also @ PG4 - a week or so ago we discussed Russian losses trying to take the steel plant in Mariupol. The 2k casualty number was for the 2 days with another 5k wounded).

* - President Zelensky has confirmed that about sixty civilians were killed when a Russian bomb hit a school in eastern Ukraine on Saturday. He said people had been using the building to shelter from shelling in the village of Bilohorivka

* - Text headlines of Russian digital TV were changed to "The blood of thousands Ukrainians and hundreds of their killed children on your hands. Your authorities and TV lying to you" in apparent cyber attack

* - Missile launch over Khartsyzk

* - Air Defense working in Odesa

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Site dedicated to countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Russian forces just need to retreat back into Russia and stay there (assuming Ukraine doesnt decide to take the ground war into Russian).

a reply to: Xcathdra


Those Azovstal numbers are insane!

4k russian KIA?

That would normally mean another 8-12k WIA/MIA/POW, but not sure 'normal' applies to anything near Marioupol.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Something has the russian's really spooked about the Ukrainians advancing in their rear there, they appear to have sent even more forces north from Izyum than anyone had predicted (unconfirmed), perhaps you just found out why - there are fewer operable rail lines there than any of us had thought.