Corona Virus Updates Part 6

Abbott Virus Test Used at White House Faces Accuracy Concern

The coronavirus test from Abbott Laboratories used at the White House to get rapid answers to whether someone is infected may miss as many as half of positive cases, according to a report from New York University that the company immediately disputed.

The analysis, which has yet to be confirmed, found that Abbott’s ID NOW missed at least one-third of positive cases detected with a rival test and as much as 48% when using the currently recommended dry nasal swabs, according to the report on BioRxiv, a server where researchers post early work before it has been reviewed by other scientists.

Abbott said the researchers didn’t use the test as intended and that the false-negative rate, as reported to the company, is 0.02%.

Is our vaunted --supposed greatest country in the world--technology failing us?

They're doing this test in the White House and according to this peer-reviewed study its a lousy and inaccurate test.

WOW!
Abbot Labs says it's reevaluating the test.

Numbers update for Europe, and Elsewhere (No BNO) :







www.worldometers.info...

a reply to: McGinty

It could be, but I doubt it as the longest living people are actually smokers. Nicotine has certain protective properties with human cells. On the surface it looks like a stupid habit, which begs the question on why did people start doing it in the first place. I think it cured some conditions back in the day, American Indians used it as a healing plant,Then got overhyped as a Panacea, People enjoyed the narco effect, then it got commercialized lots of chemicals get added for shelf life, the nicotine content dropped as the plant was industrialized, to the point where the original plant Nicotin Rustica , was nothing like the commercial plant, Rustica is grown to add Nicotine to the commercial grades. Then you have the normal human stupidity of adding rice and paper and many chemicals to cigarettes' which is questionable but actually approved by the FDA.

originally posted by: anonentity
a reply to: McGinty

It could be, but I doubt it as the longest living people are actually smokers. Nicotine has certain protective properties with human cells. On the surface it looks like a stupid habit, which begs the question on why did people start doing it in the first place. I think it cured some conditions back in the day, American Indians used it as a healing plant,Then got overhyped as a Panacea, People enjoyed the narco effect, then it got commercialized lots of chemicals get added for shelf life, the nicotine content dropped as the plant was industrialized, to the point where the original plant Nicotin Rustica , was nothing like the commercial plant, Rustica is grown to add Nicotine to the commercial grades. Then you have the normal human stupidity of adding rice and paper and many chemicals to cigarettes' which is questionable but actually approved by the FDA.

I can tell you way way back certain villages in Wales (where I am from) when the 'flu' season came around, the kids were encouraged to have a 'rollie' or hand rolled cigarette, to prevent them from catching a respiratory illness. ......it worked. Like you said this would have been more the Nicotin Rustica.....which is the species they make Essential Oil from. I have sometimes added dry sage to my tobacco when I have had bad sinus or upper respiratory infection and it clears it almost immediately after just one 'rollie' as we call hand rolled cigarettes here in the UK.
Native Americans would pipe smoke specific herbs with tobacco to clear head and respiratory congestion/illnesses. They would also 'smudge' herbs not so much for any spiritual reason but for medicinal ones.
There is a time anda place for everything or as you said "everything in moderation"
Rainbows
Jane

a reply to: anonentity
a reply to: angelchemuel

Fascinating stuff! So I suppose just buying a box of fags isn’t going to do the trick... I’ve never smoked, but for the first time I’m almost tempted to learn how to do a rollie!

a reply to: angelchemuel

Forty years ago if you were an asthmatic , the docs would say start smoking if an episode was coming and it stopped it straight away, same with Alzheimer's . My mate was asthmatic he always said a smoke stopped it, then he got married and the Wife nagged him to stop, then he had an attack and dropped down dead .

The Guardian (UK): Italian doctors find link between Covid-19 and inflammatory disorder

Doctors in Italy have reported the first clear evidence of a link between Covid-19 and a rare but serious inflammatory disorder that has required some children to undergo life-saving treatment in intensive care units.

The mysterious condition emerged last month when NHS bosses issued an alert to doctors after hospitals admitted a number of children with a mix of toxic shock and symptoms seen in an inflammatory disorder known as Kawasaki disease.

Looks like the fear is real. Fortunately, for want of a better word, it affects a small percentage of children.

I'm worried that if schools are re-opened too soon (looking at you, UK), children will become the next superspreaders and spawn the notorious second wave everyone contemplates. Praying I'm wrong!

🙏

A Wild Theory - something is nagging me and it ain't the wife this time!!

What if there is another explanation or reason as to why the Chrojan Virus (Covid-19) affects so many people so differently, from no symptoms to death and the damage to the body and its organs also so differently. Also, the reason why re-infections have occurred (e.g. South of South Korea) after a patient has recovered, tested clear and then tested when being released from hospital and found to be infected again.

What if this virus has a random dormancy characteristic whereby it falls asleep /goes dormant at random once entering the human body be that on day 1, 3, 6, 13, 20, etc. And if it does not go to sleep/dormant within a specific time-frame it kills you for sure. And could there be something relating to the infected body, DNA, genome variation type (identifiable or not?), low testosterone, blood group, chemistry etc. or exposure to some natural trigger (this could be absolutely anything but something simple like a particular fruit, food, drink, plant, scent, soap, cream, the list of possibilities is endless ).

If the above was the case then would it not explain the range and strength of symptoms and affects on the body, whether someone dies or gets re-infected regardless of age (we have just heard of a 113 and 100 year old recovering which is amazing, but why?) Maybe someone will discover a particular factor by accident that makes the difference, who knows?

Don't you think that there could be something simple or are we basically fecked and a vaccine is highly unlikely thus this virus is here to stay with outbreaks popping up somewhere every year (like Ebola) and just a new way of life.

One thing I am convinced about is that this virus is not 100% natural, it came from a lab, was either added to/tweaked be it with good intent or future malicious intent. Whether it got out by accident or not we will never know already I do believe that where it came from just before its escape and whether it was the result of enhancement or not will be confirmed/proven.

I also believe that there will be further waves and sporadic outbreaks. And how the situations will develop with Africa, India, Pakistan, Brazil etc who knows and what the implications will be for those nations that have mainly dealt with the virus, again who knows (do we end up with no go in or out countries, how do we avoid re-infection from those countries where the outbreaks have totally overwhelmed them).

Something is ODD!

PS; My calculated predicts on the numbers made on 7 April 2020 are still on track and I will provide another update on predicted vs actual numbers on eve of 31 May as planned.

a reply to: Encia22

If you assume that the U.K. governments true aim remains Herd Immunity (despite them claiming otherwise - Boris never lies, right?), then every single apparent mistake the government has made (they are many) are no longer mistakes, but instead make absolute sense in achieving this goal:


Opting out of buying PPE

Locking down way too late

Discontinuing testing

Allowing international flights, even from Wuhan

Sending Covid positive elderly hospital patients back to their care homes, where it ran rampant

Easing lockdown without any track and trace in place

Telling the public to go back to work without giving employers proper warning to instal proper safety measures

Forcing commuters back onto crowded public transport with the hollow advice they don’t use it, despite there being little alternative in major cities.

Re-opening schools in 2 weeks time, despite this new novel threat to children, which the government have chosen to ignore, just as they ignored the virus throughout January, February and March; Boris was absent from all of those COBRA meetings.


Surely it must be incredibly difficult to get so many things wrong. Particularly in light that we had China, Italy and Spain to show us what was at stake and S Korea, Germany, NZ and Australia to show us how to deal with it correctly. This isn’t hindsight talking - I was screaming from February for a lockdown, for int. Flights to be stopped or quarantined properly and let me tell you I am most definitely no genius. If I could see this coming, then so could the ‘oxbridge’ lot advising Boris.

When you look at the facts of the government’s responses to the virus, the blatantly obvious inference is that they want as many infected as possible, as quickly as possible. Then the premature re-opening of schools makes absolute sense.

Why would the government take such a ruthless course of action?

Well, equate Chief Advisor (Mr Cambridge Analytica) Dominic Cumming’s leaked comments “Who cares if some old people die”

...with Boris’ Chief Science Officer Sir Patrick Vallance’s press conference slip up, revealing an ambition for herd immunity (quickly denied by the government)

...with Boris receiving a letter from his donors - Tory Grandees - telling him to ease lockdown now
www.dailymail.co.uk...

...and again, as the great Roger Waters once said, it all makes perfect sense...

💰 > 😷

nm

originally posted by: drussell41
nm

Hmm, mysterious! Any code breakers here?

Numbers from around the world are taken from Worldometers for May 14th.
*** Note – France decreased their positive test cases, per worldometers(5/13): EHPAD and EMS data***

Spain - Pop: 44.6 M
272,646 Positive tests…….. or 1 out of 171 Spaniards
10.02% Deaths of positive tested
National Deaths (27,321) 1 per 1,708

Italy - Pop: 60.4 M
223,096 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 271 Italians
14.06 % Deaths of positive tested
National Deaths (31,368) 1 per 1,928

UK – Pop: 66.6 M
233,151 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 286 UKers
14.41 % Deaths of positive tested
National Deaths (33,614) 1 per 1,983

France – Pop: 67.0 M
178,060 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 376 French
15.24 % Deaths of positive tested
National Deaths (27,074) 1 per 2,474

Sweden – Pop: 10.2 M
28,582 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 358 Swedes
12.34 % Deaths of positive tested
National Deaths (3,529) 1 per 2,899

Denmark – Pop: 5.8 M
10,713 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 541 Danes
5.01 % Deaths of positive tested
National Deaths (537) 1 per 10,801

US - Pop: 330 M
1,436,085 Positive tests.... or 1 out of 230 Americans
5.95 % Deaths of positive tested
National Deaths 1 per 3,862

US death rates (2017):
1. Heart Disease …………….…………647,457 annual or 1,773 daily average
2. Cancer ……………………..……….….599,108 annual or 1,641 daily average
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 annual or 465 daily average
6. Alzheimer’s disease:…….……….121,404 annual or 332 daily average

COVID-19 ………………………………………. 85,448 (75 Day) or 1138 daily average

*** SURPASSED *****

7. Diabetes:………………………………….83,564 annual or 228 daily average
8. Influenza and Pneumonia …………55,562 annual or 152 daily average
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis:..50,633 annual or 138 daily average
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide):..47,173 annual or 129 daily average
X. Auto accidents ………………….………37,461 annual or 102 daily average
X. H1N1 2009 ESTIMATED (8,868 – 18,638) for 1 year or 24 – 50 daily average

a reply to: McGinty

Yep, that about sums up a sad and sorry state of affairs. So many blunders, u-turns in policy (always guided by "The Science"), nefarious decisions and bloody-minded stubbornness to fail the public, etc. Can it all be attributed to bad judgment and management? Your emojis are most probably the tip of the iceberg.

Not just limited to the UK, copy and paste covers the so called strategies of most countries.

this is very frustrating because on top of the lies of various governments who just pursue the interest of millionnaires, i find that scientists are also a big disappointment

Let alone the bad advice, bad procedures, carelessness , bad models that caused the current disaster ....
why , even now , do we not have a worldwide public database showing some insightful data on ALL worldwide covid hospital patients


no need for common interfaces and to develop anything, surely some non-emergency department in each hospital around the world /would have been able to spare an admin full time to upload daily information about covid patients
basic stuff like..


-age
-medications there were on prior to covid
-vaccinations they had gotten
-blood types
-medication they were put on
-symptoms
-glycated emoglobin ,whatever could be faintly useful to know

I am talking about data on full worldwide population of covid hospital patients
Am i missing the reason why thsi would not be useful?

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
A Wild Theory - something is nagging me and it ain't the wife this time!!

What if there is another explanation or reason as to why the Chrojan Virus (Covid-19) affects so many people so differently, from no symptoms to death and the damage to the body and its organs also so differently.

Humans aren't automobiles from a factory. Although we're all very genetically similar, YOU are very very very different than me. For instance, you might be able to take penicillin.... but a dose of it will kill me (I'm allergic.) I can probably tolerate higher levels of some types of pain than you can. One of us can run farther and faster than the other one. One of us takes more medications than the other one. We each have different diets. My normal temperature is most likely lower than yours (97.6 degrees. If I have a temperature of 103 (had one before), I am very ill and hallucinating.)

Every single one of those things (and ten thousand other little things) makes a difference in how our bodies react to anything.

So, yes. Variations in human physiology is what explains it.

originally posted by: marshaxt
this is very frustrating because on top of the lies of various governments who just pursue the interest of millionnaires, i find that scientists are also a big disappointment

Let alone the bad advice, bad procedures, carelessness , bad models that caused the current disaster ....
why , even now , do we not have a worldwide public database showing some insightful data on ALL worldwide covid hospital patients


no need for common interfaces and to develop anything, surely some non-emergency department in each hospital around the world /would have been able to spare an admin full time to upload daily information about covid patients
basic stuff like..


-age
-medications there were on prior to covid
-vaccinations they had gotten
-blood types
-medication they were put on
-symptoms
-glycated emoglobin ,whatever could be faintly useful to know

I am talking about data on full worldwide population of covid hospital patients
Am i missing the reason why thsi would not be useful?

What you are missing is time spent reading the research I've been posting.

It's clear (if you read the scientific papers) that the physicians and PhDs working on the data have access to all that and more (full hospital records in many cases.) The data is NOT, however, made public because of privacy laws in each country (here in the US, it's HIPAA)

Click on this link for a recent paper on causes of death among Covid patients in Italy and you will clearly see from the tables that they researchers had full access to data on all the details of every patient.

You can't get it, but I (as a scientist) can get it if I team with the right people and have the right type of research and go through the right kinds of forms, etc (it's kind of a long 'jump through all kinds of hoops' process so it's not something that (say) I could have a bright idea about and pick up a phone and get full electronic data from all the hospitals in Texas in a week or so.)

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
A Wild Theory - something is nagging me and it ain't the wife this time!!

What if there is another explanation or reason as to why the Chrojan Virus (Covid-19) affects so many people so differently, from no symptoms to death and the damage to the body and its organs also so differently.

Humans aren't automobiles from a factory. Although we're all very genetically similar, YOU are very very very different than me. For instance, you might be able to take penicillin.... but a dose of it will kill me (I'm allergic.) I can probably tolerate higher levels of some types of pain than you can. One of us can run farther and faster than the other one. One of us takes more medications than the other one. We each have different diets. My normal temperature is most likely lower than yours (97.6 degrees. If I have a temperature of 103 (had one before), I am very ill and hallucinating.)

Every single one of those things (and ten thousand other little things) makes a difference in how our bodies react to anything.

So, yes. Variations in human physiology is what explains it.

I too allergic to P also. So unlikely there could be a sole or a pair of common denominators which could be the reason? Or this cannot be discounted?

Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 patients dying in Italy
Report based on available data on May 7th , 2020

This one's easy enough to read, with tables and charts. A few interesting takeaways:

* men die more frequently than women in all age categories after age 40 except in the age 90+ bracket.
* the conditions most commonly seen in those who died are kind of the "usual suspects" --high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, and "Hardening of the arteries" (also known as ischemic heart disease).
* liver problems are low on the list. HIV is the lowest on the list.

Your chance of dying if you have three or more of these is over 50% if you were in Italy and caught the disease recently. At a guess, I expect the pattern is similar for other areas of the world.

a reply to: Byrd

Privacy laws?

This is where i have a problem.
If there was a public database of useful medical data on covid patients we might not even need tracing apps
This is a terrible invasion of privacy and liberty and nobody has a problem with it

but then, tracing apps can bypass all privacy laws for all the wrong reasons other than covid

Hospitals could get the patients to sign a waiver to uplaod information on a public medical database and only report the region where the data was uploaded
They haven't even tried it



yes I saw some of those papers and i find them frustrating
Time is of the essence
They were only looking at only subset of data . it was analysed by a bunch of people who could come up with zero new information. some other team might have done better
At this pace, we are going to be in this situation in 5 years.
The information needs to be shared more efficiently and faster in a worldwide database...

Numbers Update for Europe, and Elsewhere (No BNO) :







www.worldometers.info...