Corona Virus Updates Part 6

Here in Indiana looks like it's speeding up we just jumped from 8955 cases to 10,154 overnight . If this is a man made virus it's not going to be a seasonal bug This is crazy .

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

They're saying that to spin the narrative away from the death that could've been prevented if they'd locked down sooner, when scientists at home and abroad were begging them to.

Phase 1 of mitigating that blame to Boris and the Tories: Boris pulls a pretend sicky in ICU, then hides out in Chequers a few weeks.

Phase 2: lots of headlines about how high it might've been to make everyone feel relieved.

Phase 3: Will be the emergence of Boris to applause from his lackeys at having beaten the virus and saved 800,000 lives.

Anyone mentions the tens of thousands dead because he delayed lockdown without producing the scientific evidence as to why: Repeat phase 3 again and again until anyone questioning authority can be labelled a traitor against the NHS.


*EDIT: Had accidentally inserted a 'not' into the first paragraph which very much altered its intent. Apols!

Numbers from around the world are now starting to come in for April 17th.

Spain - Pop: 44.6 M
188,068 Positive tests…….. or 1 out of 248 Spaniards
10.40% Deaths

Italy - Pop: 60.4 M
172,434 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 351 Italians
13.19 % Deaths

US - Pop: 330 M
684,780 Positive tests.... or 1 out of 482 Americans
5.16% Deaths

US death rates (2017):
1. Heart Disease …………….…………647,457 annual or 1,773 daily average
2. Cancer ……………………..……….….599,108 annual or 1,641 daily average
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 annual or 465 daily average
8. Influenza and Pneumonia …………55,562 annual or 152 daily average
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide):..47,173 annual or 129 daily average
X. Auto accidents ………………….………37,461 annual or 102 daily average

COVID-19 ………………………………………. 35,374 (48 Day) or 736 daily average


*** SURPASSED *****

X. H1N1 2009 ESTIMATED (8,868 – 18,638) for 1 year or 24 – 50 daily average

originally posted by: Encia22

originally posted by: pasiphae
Here is a link to all of TennisDawg's posts

www.abovetopsecret.com...&list=posts

The link is good but is not resolving to the list... &list=posts needs to added manually by anyone who clicks your link.

For the less technically inclined here's the same link reformatted - - > tennisdawg's posts CV update threads

Thank you for this. It's so interesting to read some of this now we have it all over the world. I remember in January February thinking it may happen but may not. Now we are all here living in lockdown.

a reply to: McGinty

Quercetin absolutely works as a Zinc ionophore, alongside things like EGCg and Hydroxy Chloroquine. Quercetin and EGCg, however, are things that can be pretty darn good for other things too.

After a bit of interwebs noodling, I found that it all works by inhibiting RdRPs (RNA dependent RNA polymerases).

Which is the same mechanism that many other promising treatments target. We just need to figure out the level of inhibition needed for "most" cases, but case reports and a couple decades of existing research should provide a solid guide.

Hope someone looks into it.. Aint nobody gonna listen to me

Personally, I feel its substantially "better" to use case reports in a pandemic, rather than the approach of trials & vaccine development. For a lot of reasons, but the main ones being saving lives is more important than the why/how in the moment, and rushed development of anything could be.. Bad.

Inhibition of the RNA dependent RNA polymerases seems promising beyond just SARS-CoV-2 as well, but we can figure that out later.

originally posted by: McGinty
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

They're saying that to spin the narrative away from the death that could've been prevented if they'd locked down sooner, when scientists at home and abroad were begging them not to.

Phase 1 of mitigating that blame to Boris and the Tories: Boris pulls a pretend sicky in ICU, then hides out in Chequers a few weeks.

Phase 2: lots of headlines about how high it might've been to make everyone feel relieved.

Phase 3: Will be the emergence of Boris to applause from his lackeys at having beaten the virus and saved 800,000 lives.

Anyone mentions the tens of thousands dead because he delayed lockdown without producing the scientific evidence as to why: Repeat phase 3 again and again until anyone questioning authority can be labelled a traitor against the NHS.

It is a conspiracy website I guess! But.....

Numbers Update for Europe, and Elsewhere :












www.worldometers.info...
bnonews.com...

A very interesting paper on estimating actual cases of Covid-19

Preprint article, so not peer reviewed. What I particularly like about this model is that it breaks the states out individually and estimates their infection rate. Texas has a fairly low percentage, but given our general carelessness it's set to go up.

This model predicts that roughly half the population of New York has been infected and suggests that the peak is being reached (with over 12,000 deaths.)

If you're following the news about Florida opening some of its beaches, this model indicates that only 1.8% of the state's population has been infected (so... we've got a disaster waiting to happen.)

From BBC Live Feed :

- 20h15 : US Government hiring 'Contact tracers' :

The US government is hiring tens of thousands of people to become contact tracers, workers who track the movements of patients infected with the virus.

The contact-tracing programme of today is designed to slow the spread of the virus. “We call it shoe-leather epidemiology,” says Daniel Daltry, a progamme chief with the health department for the US state of Vermont.

More than 20 contact tracers have been speaking to Vermont patients to find out whom they recently spent time with. Individuals who have been exposed to the virus are warned about a possible infection so they self-isolate.

- 21h18 : W.H.O. Casts doubt on Antibody tests :

The World Health Organization has cast doubt on the usefulness of antibody tests for Covid-19.

Many countries have indicated an intention to purchase millions of antibody tests, suggesting that people who are proven to have had the virus could be given "immunity passports" and would be able to return to work.

But the WHO cautioned against investing too much in these tests.

Speaking in Geneva, the WHO's Dr Maria van Kerkhove said there was "no evidence" that having had the virus would guarantee immunity.

She said initial evidence did not suggest large numbers of people were developing antibodies after having the virus, meaning the chances of creating "herd immunity" were not high.

a reply to: Byrd

As a fellow Texan, I have to admit I am a little stumped at the numbers here. We have 4 large cities, and I know we are more spread out due to the size of the state, but there are some urban areas that are pretty crowded in the big cities. I feel like we should have more deaths based on the models, as well as some overwhelmed hospitals in at least a few areas, but we don't. Since we have been less restrictive, surely we would have many more infected at a serious level? I keep saying "let's see what next week brings," but here we still are.

I traveled from the Dallas area to Houston last weekend and started getting cold symptoms on Tuesday evening. Sore throat with a little chest pain. A cough here and there, but no fever that I could tell. I can't get tested until I have a fever, so hopefully, this is in fact, just a plain old cold. I am sure there is plenty of that going around still.

a reply to: Byrd

A disaster waiting to happen, OR a growing herd immunity after 3 or 4 months of the infection running rampant.

a reply to: Salander

Game changer? twitter.com...

Hope so!

originally posted by: klimitzgus
a reply to: Byrd

As a fellow Texan, I have to admit I am a little stumped at the numbers here. We have 4 large cities, and I know we are more spread out due to the size of the state, but there are some urban areas that are pretty crowded in the big cities. I feel like we should have more deaths based on the models, as well as some overwhelmed hospitals in at least a few areas, but we don't.

The state has been... all over the map with deciding what counts and what doesn't count. After first counting suspected hospitalizations, they suddenly went to "confirmed by test" -- only the number of tests they can run per day was quite small (around 200-500) and it took 4-8 days to get a result (so the numbers lag greatly). Now we're using the Health Department's numbers, which seem to be based on confirmed lab tests only ... and now we can process a few thousand each day with a 4 day lag.

Don't look at them as an absolute. Look at them as a trend (are the numbers still rising? Double digits or single digits? etc)

Since we have been less restrictive, surely we would have many more infected at a serious level? I keep saying "let's see what next week brings," but here we still are.

Part of this is lack of testing and part is a lower population density. I've watched the map go from showing cases only in the major cities to showing clusters in every single county. Covid deaths and illness in places like Van Zandt are likely to be undercounted, given the poor access to hospitals.

I traveled from the Dallas area to Houston last weekend and started getting cold symptoms on Tuesday evening. Sore throat with a little chest pain. A cough here and there, but no fever that I could tell. I can't get tested until I have a fever, so hopefully, this is in fact, just a plain old cold. I am sure there is plenty of that going around still.

Yep - colds and our lovely allergy season. I've been hit with runny nose and itchy eyes for the first time ever. Bleah!

I hope you're taking the usual precautions, particularly if you're around people in a higher risk category and that you stay safe and healthy.

originally posted by: Salander
a reply to: Byrd

A disaster waiting to happen, OR a growing herd immunity after 3 or 4 months of the infection running rampant.

Disaster.

Open beaches will attract people from other states, which means more opportunity to spread it around. Many areas of Florida are very poor (so you will get more deaths there among people who can't afford a doctor) and it'll hit the fruit pickers and farm workers hard (not good for that industry.) Nursing homes... dear ghods... that's a disaster that's getting worse and the population of Florida is generally older than the rest of the nation. Many folks in Florida live in apartments rather than single family dwellings (like we do here in Texas) and one case in an apartment can spread to a lot of other people.

The out of staters are going to bring the infection back to their states (as they did after Spring Break)

So, given the parameters, I don't see a real positive outcome, there.

An Article (in French) with some more info on the 'Antibodies' and 'Herd Immunity' :

(My translations).

" Collective Immunity improbable at the moment "

Once thought to be possible, the 'Immunity Passport' - a method to de-confine people who have already had the virus, and thus developed antibodies - seems to have been put aside.
Pr Jean-François Delfraissy, immunologist, and President of the Scientific Counsel, has emitted reserves on the capacity for the human organism of infected people to develop antibodies, protecting them effectively and for a long duration.
" This Virus is very particular. We have noticed that the lifespan of the antibodies against COVID-19 are very short. We are also noticing more and more cases of relapse, from peope who have already been infected before. " he said, to La Repubblica. " The fact that you have antibodies, does not mean that you are protected. "
" That's why our Counsel does not recommend 'Immunity Passports', a sort of 'Medical Waiver' for those who have already been infected before ".
" We do not see this as a valable criteria for lifting confinement "


On The subjet of a " Second Wave " , the Professor points to Singapore, which he says is currently battling a second wave.
" We might have to do this over a long period, lift the restrictions a bit, then bring them back, then lift again, until we have enough medication at our disposal ".


On the Subject of a Vaccine :

Researchers the whole world over are trying to find a vaccine, and effective treatments, as fast as they can.
Among others, the Pasteur Institute.
" We are trying to understand why some people are able to produce lots of antibodies, capable of neutralizing Sars-CoV-2, and others not.
What do the Antibodies target in the Virus ?
How do the Antibodies block the Viral Cycle ?
Are the Antibodies able to destroy infected cells ?
To answer these questions, we study molecular interactions between the Antibodies and the virus, but also their antiviral properties " Explains Hugo Mouquet, Head of the Laboratory (Pasteur Institute).

" There are probably Protecting and neutralizing antibodies, and others that facilitate the Virus" adds Pr Delfraissy.

The objective for the Pasteur Institute, is to discover and define the most-neutralizing Antibodies, to be able to reproduce them, and eventually use them as a Vaccine, or as medication.

But, faced with a New virus, these tasks are not easy, and cannot be done in a snap of the fingers.
If scientists beleive they will be able to deliver, none of them know when.

Over 500 reasearch projects are currently in progress around the world.
" making a Vaccine, is going to be a long process " Philippe Gabriel Steg, head of Cardiology at Bichat Hospital in Paris, said to RTL radio.
" Research has begun at a pace never seen before Covid-19" he added.
" If we get a Vaccine in 2021, it will be a Speed Record, of Historical proportions".

(Bolding mine)

originally posted by: Byrd
As described in one of my longer "translation" posts, they will go back later, grab patient data and match those who got the treatment with those who didn't and compare outcomes. So, in (say) May they will grab Patient X from Hospital A who got the treatment and compare them with a patient from the same hospital who didn't get the treatment (maybe a month earlier or some other situation that prevented them getting the med.) They will match age, gender, health conditions and then look at the outcomes. This is how they did the big French hospital study.

They'll try to get a very large (over 200) group; as many as they can match.

Because this is an emergency, they don't really have time to do informed consent and recruiting and so forth.

OK thanks. So, maybe it's a bit premature to conclude how successful the trial is until these control comparisons are made, but hopefully we'll hear about the total results with control comparisons soon.

originally posted by: tanstaafl
So, maybe there is a way to prove that the so called 'mitigation efforts' of destroying our economy really isn't doing anything other than ... destroying our economy and causing so much stress in people that suicides are up, people are dying from procedures they cannot get done, etc etc...

Thanks!

originally posted by: Karyotype
I've not kept up with what has been happening the last few ways, I did not see this browsing back thru the pages but it is interesting I thought

"Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week."

Source

That article about Professor Yitzhak Ben Israelis plots talks about timing being similar for various countries but he admits the death rates are not all the same and this article about social distancing during the 1918 pandemic mentions that differences in death rates were seen based on how the social distancing was implemented. So we should look at this too and try to learn something from history, that some cities fared much better than others and their social distancing policies seemed to play a role.

How some cities ‘flattened the curve’ during the 1918 flu pandemic

Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked...

The 1918 flu, also known as the Spanish Flu, lasted until 1920 and is considered the deadliest pandemic in modern history. Today, as the world grinds to a halt in response to the coronavirus, scientists and historians are studying the 1918 outbreak for clues to the most effective way to stop a global pandemic. The efforts implemented then to stem the flu’s spread in cities across America—and the outcomes—may offer lessons for battling today’s crisis...

Cities that ordered social distancing measures later and for shorter periods tended to have spikes in deaths and higher overall death rates.

Cities that ordered social distancing measures sooner and for longer periods usually slowed infections and lowered overall death rates.

Now that this thread isn't getting as much attention I may not get an answer but does ANYONE have the link to a Lancet study that had a chart in it showing that the first couple of cases didn't go to the wet market? Or any other legit info on the first couple of patients not going to the wet market. I'm kicking myself for not saving that link and the chart.

a reply to: pasiphae

Here you go it was this Lancet paper that stated 14 out the first 45 infected patients had no contact with the Wuhan market

Lancet Article

I have asked everyone from Prof Peter Doherty, to the research team who released the first genome on Jan 11th if they know if any genomes were sequenced from this initial cohort and nobody, and i mean nobody knows. The genome they sequenced came from a patient at Wuhan Central Hospital and the fluid was taken on Dec 24th, He had direct contact with the market, in fact he worked there.

originally posted by: pavil
Has anyone mentioned this: What happens when it warms up and is Mosquito Season? Can the Wuhan be transmitted via blood and Mosquitos? Things could get really scary then.

Not sure about mosquitos but Locusts are on the rise in Africa.... big time.

originally posted by: hardenuupete
a reply to: pasiphae

Here you go it was this Lancet paper that stated 14 out the first 45 infected patients had no contact with the Wuhan market

Lancet Article

I have asked everyone from Prof Peter Doherty, to the research team who released the first genome on Jan 11th if they know if any genomes were sequenced from this initial cohort and nobody, and i mean nobody knows. The genome they sequenced came from a patient at Wuhan Central Hospital and the fluid was taken on Dec 24th, He had direct contact with the market, in fact he worked there.

Thanks! And thanks for that extra info. I don't remember reading about Prof Doherty