Corona Virus Updates Part 6

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Probably should have elaborated more, but it was in response to Byrds post.

Now, the profit comment was delivered with a bit of snark, but actually getting these trials going takes quite a few things coming together correctly. Im not sure its the absolute best and only method to "figure things out" in an ongoing pandemic, but Im not an epidemiologist or doctor either.

My own limitation there is that I work with system analysis (or did), so the "best" solution is derived substantially differently. The code figures it out in real time and implements it, and the why/how analyzed while that is already doing its work.

However, it does seem that anything that targets that mechanism (inhibits RNA dependent RNA polymerases) as shown a lot of promise. Seems like itd be a good avenue for exploration, and I hope it happens.

New cases are showing up in my rural area town now and no one is social distancing or wearing masks. However, 2-3 weeks ago just about everyone was wearing masks, even store clerks. Now that there is actual confirmed cases no one is wearing anything. People just don't care. I can see covid19 ravaging this place. Trump wants to open everything again at peak highs and it's clearly going around still.

originally posted by: sean
New cases are showing up in my rural area town now and no one is social distancing or wearing masks. However, 2-3 weeks ago just about everyone was wearing masks, even store clerks. Now that there is actual confirmed cases no one is wearing anything. People just don't care. I can see covid19 ravaging this place. Trump wants to open everything again at peak highs and it's clearly going around still.

Yes, he wants to open up, but that has limitations . Here's the point, people in the States are too fat and lazy to care about the nation as a whole. Chinese know that. What does that mean... it means opening up the nation for the 26 million or more that are not working is simply NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

You really have to study what is going on around the world. For example: pasta made in Italy, tomatoes canned in Spain, olive oil processed in Spain, Italy and Greece, them plants are not going to re-open for some time and in this country we get them supplies and now we are told "no more" for the time being.

The economy if and when it does open will mean this: GROWN IN AMERICA, MADE IN AMERICAN BY AMERICANS.

That is the bottom line. Try living on an Island and the cargo planes are only coming in from YOUR PART OF YOUR COUNTRY.

That is what is meant between the words of any countries leaders this day and age.

a reply to: Serdgiam
What I didn't understand is why they didn't have a control group.

originally posted by: Willtell
Report: Covid-19 patients recovering quickly after getting experimental drug remdesivir

www.cnn.com...
"However, the trial does not include what's known as a control group, so it will be difficult to say whether the drug is truly helping patients recover better. With a control arm, some patients do not receive the drug being tested so that doctors can determine whether it's the drug that is really affecting their condition."

Maybe they do preliminary trials without any controls to see if it's worth doing more extensive trials with controls later?
But if it's "difficult to say whether the drug is truly helping patients recover better." without the control, it seems of limited usefulness to do such uncontrolled trials.

This was just reported.

1. Aged people (over 60 ) that have "truly" recovered , well their anti-bodies are 3 X's that of younger people that have "truly " recovered.
2. That is good news, but may be some one here can stop by and explain why. Thanks.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Hmm.. I missed that.

Every trial Ive seen has something a bit off like that. Pragmatically, we do like to examine every little bit and piece in isolation, but that only explains some of the other trials.

A lack of a control is a bit different.

Maybe its ethics based? I would think that if I had something that showed promise, with efficacy shown on similar viruses (SARS-CoV vs SARS-CoV-2, among others) using a similar mechanism.. At least enough potential to try it.. I would have to think long and hard about withholding that from other patients. Or, at the very least, using different treatments which might negate the control.

I hadnt really thought about that, but doing proper controls seems like an ethical minefield.

Update Apr.16/20
Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by JHU CSSE)

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com...#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Canada *** Total= 30,683 ***
15,857-Quebec, 9,828-Ontario, 2,158-Alberta, 1,575-British Columbia,
579-Nova Scotia, 305-Saskatchewan, 250-Manitoba, 117-New Brunswick,
252-Newfoundland & Labrador, 26-Prince Edward Island,
5-Northwest Territories, 8-Yukon, 13-Grand Princess,

coronavirus.1point3acres.com... USA & Canada Updates

www.worldometers.info...

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
a reply to: Serdgiam
What I didn't understand is why they didn't have a control group.

originally posted by: Willtell
Report: Covid-19 patients recovering quickly after getting experimental drug remdesivir

www.cnn.com...
"However, the trial does not include what's known as a control group, so it will be difficult to say whether the drug is truly helping patients recover better. With a control arm, some patients do not receive the drug being tested so that doctors can determine whether it's the drug that is really affecting their condition."

Maybe they do preliminary trials without any controls to see if it's worth doing more extensive trials with controls later?
But if it's "difficult to say whether the drug is truly helping patients recover better." without the control, it seems of limited usefulness to do such uncontrolled trials.

As described in one of my longer "translation" posts, they will go back later, grab patient data and match those who got the treatment with those who didn't and compare outcomes. So, in (say) May they will grab Patient X from Hospital A who got the treatment and compare them with a patient from the same hospital who didn't get the treatment (maybe a month earlier or some other situation that prevented them getting the med.) They will match age, gender, health conditions and then look at the outcomes. This is how they did the big French hospital study.

They'll try to get a very large (over 200) group; as many as they can match.

Because this is an emergency, they don't really have time to do informed consent and recruiting and so forth.

originally posted by: Brick17
a reply to: Diamondgeezur

Thanks mate. You are doing an awesome job, remember that. It's because of people like you, who are willing to step up and do what's needed in such a time like this, that the situation is not as bad as it otherwise could be. Hats off to you and respect.

I have seen a thread where another poster has listed all of Tennisdawgs posts. I cat find it now as I can't be bothered to scroll through these pages without knowing where to start lol.

Hang on in there mate. You are doing a great thing for your family, community and people. You should be proud. Even on those days that are hard and dark, soldier on and fight through because it's you doing what needs to be done and not the ones critizing. Those type of people are too weak and selfish to matter, ignore them with the contempt they deserve.

Stay safe and soldier on. Courage in Adversity my friend.

I captured his post that made the biggest impression on me. Copied below:

Update 11 days after this post:

tennisdawg wrote on February 13:

"Every few years, an anonymous poster comes on ATS, and begins leaking very credible information. The beginning of this leak is designed for others to verify, and to build credibility. The information this person has is almost too hard to fathom, and instantly brings out emotion as people slander and criticize the posts. These criticisms are coming from a place of fear, and they are perfectly understandable. As the leaker begins to drip the information, each post continues to escalate the truth of what they know.

This exact situation happened on this website in 2014 with a member named Astr0. He did what he could to build credibility, then built the narrative, and finally spilled the beans. The enormity of his information was too hard to swallow for many.

What I have shared is the truth to the best of my knowledge, and I have shared it in the best way I know how. This entire event is a deep state initiated scenario. This virus was artificially created on purpose, and it is designed to cycle through every human 3 times (possibly more). This will lead to a wartime event for the 2 major players on the globe. Someone wanted this to happen. It was artificially created by the U.S.A. It was then stolen by China. Neither China nor the US released this bioweapon. A third party wanted the 2 countries to blame the other. This is why China refuses to let the CDC (USA) help.

There is no stopping what is coming. It is done. Please prepare as best you can. This is not a world-ending virus, but it is a world changing virus. Time will now be measured only as before and after this event. Thank you all for your dialogue and responses. Whether we argue or not, I do wish ALL of you the best, as we are ALL from the same source. Good luck everyone."

Feb. 24 Update: Everything I have stated is the truth, and continues to be the truth. Good luck out there.

a reply to: Byrd

Are you aware of any research into RdRP inhibitors with regards to SARS-CoV-2 specifically?

I know there are studies looking at different aspects like Hydroxy Chloroquine (Zinc ionophore) & Zinc, Remdesivir, Avigan/Favipiravir, etc. Alongside an ever growing list of case reports.

And research done with such inhibitors with regards to SARS-CoV and some other respiratory illnesses.

But trying to actually seek out "general" research into the overall mechanism's efficacy with SARS-CoV-2 seems tricky, if it exists. We tend to just hear of it drug by drug without much mention of their similarities.

originally posted by: cirrus12
I didn't see it but apparently Patrick Vallance said that he was sure the r0 was definitely below 1 today at the UK press conference. Seems strange he has that number when we do so little testing here.
Even the WHO say it is between 2 and 3. This paper proposes it's around 5.7
We haven't published any new data as far as I can see - the UK government are really dragging their heels in publishing anything detailed. Or what they base their models on. Frustrating.

I thought he meant that the r0 is below 1 as a result of the lock down when it is usually 2.6.

originally posted by: musicismagic
This was just reported.

1. Aged people (over 60 ) that have "truly" recovered , well their anti-bodies are 3 X's that of younger people that have "truly " recovered.
2. That is good news, but may be some one here can stop by and explain why. Thanks.

I have no idea why and it does appear strange, wouldn't it more logically be the other way around? I would be interested to hear an possible explanation, anyone?

Could it be possible that a truly recovered individual that has the anti-bodies could still be a carrier in terms of still being able to infect others?

a reply to: Rich Z

I didn't catch that when he post it. But what is really strange is that I live in Japan in one of the newest medical facilities in Japan and the wife's business allows her to hear some very good and important info.
With that info, I started calling it "MIM's Street Talk". As most have followed my post since Feb 4. Much of the Street Talk seems now to be relevant to my "street talk" about the 3 year cycle of the unknown. It now seem that dennisdawg and I have been on the same page for a long time. Amazing , yet we both were seem too thick because of our posting.

1. All must be careful about wanting and taking a govt. money handout. (as you notice, countries that are doing it is because of the 3 year of unknown certainty that lies a head). What does this mean. Simply it means "trap" , a spider web of a trap that one may never "have a chance to" leave and destination unknown. "dennisdawg is right about what all along he's been saying about that this is a "WORLD CHANGING VIRUS". You have to think of the American Welfare Program to get a grip on how it works. The different here in this country ( I'll speak with proof ) is the welfare system is a 2 type program. I'll only speak of one because its the most important one that has not and WILL NOT fall into the spider web.
The program provides you with a low income housing ( please note, no gang members are allowed to qualify and CAN NOT have a bank account, pretty cool system, right. Got to have a bank account to pay the low cost rent. These people these people that qualify all have jobs, nice cars and I think for the most part have full time employment.　THEY SAVE THEIR MONEY AND BUY A HOUSE AFTER ABOUT 3 TO 5 YEARS OF RENTING. Then they are part of the "I'm going to make something of myself and for my family". It's a very successful program. Yes, many strict restrictions apply, but that way they save to leave as fast as possible.
2. If we ( I say this because Japan is now considering giving all people 1 thousand dollars for one month only) It's not really a springboard to independence at all, its no more then a trap to keep you inline with the "World Changing Virus". Lucky is the people in a country that don't fall for the trap.
3. Expect wide world poverty to be the standard of life for many years to come.
4. People say we want a set income provided by the govt. Its a spider web trap.
5. There is no free lunch unless you are in a cage. Don't allow yourself to be in an economic govt. assisted cage.

Meanwhile in South Africa, the Corona Virus Business Relief funds will be distributed based on race.

To assist, the government launched a R200 million Tourism Relief Fund. The aim is to provide assistance to small, micro and medium-sized enterprises (SMMEs) by way of a once-off capped grant of R50 000 per entity that qualifies.

Last week, Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane, the minister of Tourism, said race would be a factor in deciding who to assist, sparking outrage in some quarters.

“Preference will be given to enterprises with the highest score in terms of the criteria, which serve as a pre- qualification. A panel of experts will conduct the final evaluation in terms of functionality.”

Source

The ANC asks us all to sacrifice equally during this crisis, but will only assist business based on race. Nice.

Thoko Didiza, the minister of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, also announced that B-BBEE would be a factor in allocating R1.2 billion worth of aid to emerging and small-scale farmers.

B-BBEE

originally posted by: 666yrasrevdA
Just lost my uncle to covid 19. Yes he had underlying health issue and was in a care home but I know a number of people whose relatives have died from this. Before this virus I have never known anyone die from flu, now I know about 5 who died from this virus in the past 2 months. I can't believe there are many out there that think this is overblown, I don't understand how they can say that when it's as clear as day that this virus is the real deal.

So sorry for your loss. I too do not understand how anyone could still deny the existence of this and its impact. If anything it is being underplayed.
China added extra deaths for Wuhan overnight.
Ecuador had officially 187 deaths for covid but thousands more additional deaths than normal.

NEW: Ecuador's Guayas province, where 187 people are confirmed to have died of coronavirus, recorded 6,700 deaths from all causes during the first half of April, significantly higher than the 1,000 average - BBC

Source BNO news.

Also the Daily Mail UK is reporting that drs are being encouraged to write pneumonia as a cause of death rather than covid. They haven't counted nursing homes deaths yet. This is all to reduce the flak the govt is getting I think. Our policy failed monumentally and not only that we are continuing to fail.
I watched a vid of staff in a nursing home where several elderly are affected and the staff are wearing those flimsy plastic aprons. Heck even chefs wear better protection. I saw a clip of staff at a 'testing station' who are also wearing plastic aprons. But cos it was outside it had blown up in the wind. That's a win for the virus.

My town has between 10 and 13 new diagnosed cases a day. I can't wrap my head around that. Surely the figures would vary? Grow exponentially or something. I reckon we have max 13 tests down here or something.
www.dailymail.co.uk...[edit by]edit on 4/17/2020 by checkmeout because: (no reason given)