a reply to:
McGinty
The biggie I get from what I've read last night (still got 4 tabs of more stuff to read, thankfully I have beer), is that you can see BA.4 as maybe
having picked some parts from both BA.1 and BA.3, but we don't know if there is any rationality in the choosing, or if it's completely random.
It could get some good bits and some bad bits (for us), or mostly good bits, or mostly bad bits, or all bad bits (for us).
Seeing the numbers of 'mutations' it has to choose from, there are quite a lot of permutations, and just one could be the key to become a 'killer'
virus, or a really crap one.
BA.4 isn't looking like being able to beat BA.2, which is in full stride wherever it is.
It's all down to probabilities in the end though, I think.
As I've said before, the sheer number of cases will mean that the probability of a 'Bad One' (for us) coming, is almost 1, or 100% chance.
I was only counting on the Human infections though. 58 Million worldwide right now, but lets x10 just for the cases that aren't being picked up or
asymptomatic. Thats potentially 580 million human hosts, and possibilities for a different 'mutation' outcome.
Not all infected hosts will mutate the virus though, in any meaningful way. Many won't.
But Rats, White-tailed deer, hamsters, cats, gorillas, other monkeys, and many more species are also infected hosts.
Rats alone come into close proximity with a large part of certain populations around the world.
The animals would have to mutate something to us that they could pass to us, and infect us.
Normally, that would be very low, for swine flu, and bird flu, for example.
But if we gave the animals this, then it's already got the codes for infecting us, and would probably be much easier to pass back to us.
Guessing how many rats, mink, deer, etc there are in the world who could potentially, or are already known to have, the virus, is orders of magnitude
greater than Humans alone.
The probability, in my eyes, now is almost certainly 100% of a 'bad one' happening, it's just when, or how often it happens, and can we do
preventative measures to reduce the impact to humanity.
Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best
Have i mentioned i'm a bit of a huge pessimist ?
The BA.1 and BA.2 differences at entering the body pic was one I liked a lot.
As far as I understood, just about every one of the Covid variants has entered the body like BA.1, and they don't know how or whatever about why BA.2
is so different from the others before.
The scientists were also perplexed at how BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3 appeared almost all three at the same time, but are as different as Alpha, Delta and
Gamma were to each other (very different).
Its like having triplets who are each completely different, in their own way, so as to think they were not siblings.
I'm not sure where BA.4 has been found yet, I'll have to have a look at the GISAID data on nextstrain.org.
edit : South Africa (4) and Colorado USA (1), and Puerto Rico (1). 6 samples is a very small batch
.
From the BA.4 article a few posts above.
edit on 31-3-2022 by MonkeyBalls2 because: added edit