Corona Virus Updates Part 5

a reply to: rickymouse
Are you suggesting the actinidin (actinidain) enzyme in kiwi may inhibit Covid19?

a reply to: Byrd
a reply to: burdman30ott6

The problem is, you are both professionals, so you view the conundrum from a point of knowledge, and have a tool-set of methodologies at your disposals (different to each other based on your professions) to approach it.

The vast majority of the world (upwards of 99%?) doesn't have access to any such mental tool-sets. So, if our/your solution isn't inherently understandable by that vast majority... it will always be doomed to failure.

What's needed is a methodological approach that incorporates the singular as the basis for the importance of the collective.

In other words, or at one extreme of this methodological style of thinking, the collective cannot exist unless it incorporates conflicting views into a balanced model, tending towards consensus. As opposed to our current global approach that tends towards partisanship.

It is possible to ask questions in such a way that they don't generate 50/50 responses.

SOUTH AFRICA UPDATE (Day 13 of 21 Day Total Lockdown)

1. Total Deaths 18 (+5)
2. Total Infected 1845
3. Total Tested +- 63000

With the 2 week period of lockdown almost over, government will start taking a look at what to do beyond the 21 day period. Will schools and normal business resume?
Our currency has lost a lot of value and our country economy has been awarded junk status.

On the face of it, South Africa's quick measures have had the desired effect. I am often critical of the government, but I am feeling a glimmer of hope that we will escape the horrors that some countries are experiencing.

We may escape the effects of the Corona virus but we certainly will not escape the economic effects.

originally posted by: puzzlesphere
a reply to: Byrd
a reply to: burdman30ott6

The problem is, you are both professionals, so you view the conundrum from a point of knowledge, and have a tool-set of methodologies at your disposals (different to each other based on your professions) to approach it.

The vast majority of the world (upwards of 99%?) doesn't have access to any such mental tool-sets. So, if our/your solution isn't inherently understandable by that vast majority... it will always be doomed to failure.

What's needed is a methodological approach that incorporates the singular as the basis for the importance of the collective.

Which frankly won't work. For social problems, yes. For complex biochemical problems, no. All the bright ideas offered by the public for chemical based problems (or physics based problems) are "noise."

That's not to say there's no good ideas. But you don't solve a problem (either as scientist or engineer) by making wild guesses and seeing what comes up. That's like throwing a thousand darts at a dart board while being blindfolded. If you want to score in darts, you're better off having your professional players making the toss - while not being blindfolded.

ATS and the public, for instance, simply don't have enough deep information. This group wouldn't come up with using viral pieces delivered via a sugar-based patch to develop immunity because the bits of information needed to do this (function of segments of virus RNA, difference between table sugar/corn syrup and what biochemists call a sugar, SARS-COVID spike proteins and so forth (I imagine most don't know about the smallpox patch and microneedles) -- and they don't know about scalability and vaccines

That's not to say that they can't learn. They can. But there's a vast gap of information that they haven't bridged and often don't have access to. And that makes a huge difference in solving problems.

The data for New York City - a visual picture of the past few days


Wikipedia's been doing graphs like this which help see trends over time. Here's the one for NYC: en.wikipedia.org...

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: rickymouse
Does this include covid19? www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

Steer the immune system to fight the flu and it takes away the immune system's ability to fight the coronavirus and Rhinovirus infections?

I scanned some of the papers citing that one since the study was in 2012 and a small number of participants. It was not a robust finding and other papers (www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...) indicate that vaccines seem to improve the resistance to other types of respiratory illnesses.

See also www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

...and other papers that cite the one you linked to: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

The conclusion on the first link says it seems to inhibit influenza like illnesses. ILI. The Coronavirus is not at all like an influenza like illness, the treatment tends to be completely different.

If I read correctly, coronavirus is classified as an ILI. Now... I might have misread, so am open to correction here.

As an example, a chemical that actually steers the immune system to fight viruses by inhibiting an enzyme which is found in blackberries and strawberries has an opposite effect with this SARSCOVID19 virus. It inhibits the bodies ability to break down the papain class enzyme of this virus. The Japanese medicine they created actually targets that enzyme that the covid virus makes.

Viruses don't make enzymes

But it would have the opposite effect on influenza. The vaccines steer our bodies to make enzymes in chemistries to fight a particular virus to protect us.

Enzymes and antibodies are not the same thing

(I know... quoting Quora there. I chose the simple Quora answer over a lot of scientific papers with long words and that are tiresome to read, but if you need those I can point you to those.)

To get the conversation back on track, there is a new and promising treatment being investigated now: www.sciencedaily.com...

And the University of Pittsburgh has a new candidate for a vaccine that could be rolled out fairly quickly.

edit on 8-4-2020 by RP2SticksOfDynamite because: (no reason given)

This line is from another thread. Does it make any sense?

Virus like particle that has an engineered coronavirus membrane modeled after the SARS coronavirus that is packed with RNA genetic fragments of more than one virus.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

I have used a serious number crunching algorithm in a spreadsheet on today's data copied from World o meter and the minimum number of global deaths I have come up with as at 14 Dec 2020 is 22m which only includes China's BS numbers.

Make of that what you will. Lets hope I am that number over!

Here are the details of my projections for 30 Apr 2020 and Dec Total Deaths from "The Chrojan Virus". Our real life movie!


World as at 7 Apr 2020
Total Cases 1,411,099
New Cases 65,095
Total Deaths 81,044
New Deaths 6,390
Total Recovered 300,759
Active Cases 1,029,296
Serious, Critical 47,836
Total by 30/04/2020 Cases 1,666,764
New by 30/04/2020 Cases 255,665
Total by 30/04/2020 Deaths 267,308
Total by 14/12/2020 Deaths 20,666,220 min (could be 2 to 10 times this number depending on Africa and Non Health Service States)

If it turns out to be correct that this virus is a cocktail and I truly believe so, and it either can lay dormant or re-infect and also be of a viron trojanic (new word) and random mutanic (new word) nature with a complete tool-set (take a look at the symptoms/effects list supplied previously) then we are living in a movie where the worlds population will reduce over the next 1-2 years and will continue to do so gradually as the virus becomes seasonal like the flu. The attack on the testes will also reduce reproduction levels as the male sperm count will continue to decline.

I bet 90% of people on the planet thought that this could never happen and believed it would never get beyond a movie.

But we all know that our planet cannot continue to sustain a continually growing population and ultimately the result of that would be a uninhabitable planet in the end. And the only solution to this problem is depopulation and its not going to happen voluntarily (although there are many ways that this could be managed and achieved if it was a truly global effort)!

And this is why we are now experiencing the surreal be it by accident (earlier than planned) or deliberate as numerous veiled indicators have possibly suggested over the last 20 years! And then there are the GGS.

Can you imagine if the G20 came out and made a joint statement that the planet would end in 2030 if we did not depopulate now and change our ways on the environment/climate etc etc. What would happen? Do you think that people would volunteer in their billions to make a sacrifice for the sake of the planet and humanity? or would we end up with global anarchy and all that would entail including the end of the planet anyway. This is indicative of why depopulation is inevitable, now by accident or sometime in the future when the population hits a not so magic number and my guess is or was 10bn, but we are almost 8bn now so?

Keep safe because everybody is going know people and family members who will succumb to this virus over the next few years.

My numbers are conservative but the eventual reality might well scare the sh.t out of you!

Hope the hell I am wrong about "The Chrojan Virus", but the 3rd eye instinct is often not far from reality!!

As a result of yesterdays and today's numbers and an updating of assumptions my prediction has now shifted significantly. They will remain this way now until 30 Apr 2020. And I hope the hell they are wrong.


World as at 7 Apr 2020
Total Cases 1,411,099
New Cases 65,095
Total Deaths 81,044
New Deaths 6,390
Total Recovered 300,759
Active Cases 1,029,296
Serious, Critical 47,836
Total by 30/04/2020 Cases 2,908,284
New by 30/04/2020 Cases 1,497,185
Total by 30/04/2020 Deaths 228,014
Total by 14/12/2020 Deaths 20,666,220 min (could be 2 to 20 times this number depending on Africa and Non Health Service States)

Note there is a small reduction total deaths predicted based on numbers recorded. This takes no account of deaths not recorded or not declared.

CFR: 22%



www.worldometers.info...

a reply to: MedicalMarvel

According to putting together multiple scientific articles I have read...yes it should. The enzyme this virus uses is 3CL pro www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

Bromelain does destroy this viral enzyme that it uses for replication too, but from what I have read actinidin should be a little better. Also, there is quite a bit of actinidin in kiwi, whereas the core and stem of pineapple are not eaten usually. But you can get bromelain supplements. I have not been able to identify this property in grapefruit, but grapefruit does have a lot of other protective chemicals against this virus, including quercetin and narangeenan which work differently to inhibit the spread of this virus. and read this article. journals.sagepub.com...

A chemical in birch tree bark, concentrated and converted by the mushrooms that grow on the dying tree, chaga and shelf, is a RNA polymerase inhibitor. The chemical is also found in birch tree sap. The sap, bark, and I think leaves chemistry gets converted to the active chemistry by estrification by alcohol. So take some birch tree sap that has been touted as healthy by some people...and is bitter as hell...I tasted it. and mix it with some sweet tasting alcohol to convert the chemicals and maybe top off with a little umbrella and olives on a stick. You do not have to kill the tree to get this chemical to form the mushrooms, never ring off the bark off the trunk of a birch tree, it kills the tree. I do not want people killing birch trees, a dead tree has a lot of bark on it and you can do some pruning or tap the tree for the syrup. The english people will figure out what alcohol mixes best with it, after all they made the gin and tonic.

Enzymes are actually protein structures, you can use one type of proteinase to break down another type.

Here is another article, researching this article brought me to the kiwi and bromelaine enzymes. jvi.asm.org...

a reply to: ByrdI would rather spend my time trying to find a way to fight the virus than spend time making graphs. I do look at the figures to identify how fast it is spreading but I am not sure that the basis they are using is adequate, lots more people in America take meds that inhibit the bodies ability to fight off this disease, not just the old, young people have been prescribed these types of meds as prevention and to treat depression. That needs to be considered in identifying risk groups.

a reply to: Byrd

Well, maybe I'm coming at it from a third or fourth angle... designer or philosopher... the professions that both scientists and engineers dismiss (though I am also both a scientist and an engineer by profession/s in different lives).

You have somewhat missed my point, as is wont of silo'd thinking, which funnily enough is almost necessary for many professions to achieve their focused outcomes... ie. engineers think like engineers.

You have fallen into the exact trap I am trying to highlight.

My point is not to quash a particular methodological approach, but to contextualise conflicting approaches (example: engineer/scientist), in a model (or many models, based on context), so as to generate value from the discovered contradictions.

I know this sounds like I am being very abstract, but on the contrary, this, I believe, is a simple mind model that applies to how we negotiate as people, and has practical examples at every level from the individual up to collectives of collectives.

It fundamentally does not alter or interfere with the individual approach that you defined in your post, rather it embraces the contradictions that arise when contextualised within other models.

Facetiously, what I am suggesting, is it is as simple as "flexible thinking" (two sides of that particular coin; positive or negative thinking)... though I believe there is a way (or a mind methodology that can be defined, that when learnt or understood inherently (grok'd if you like)), allows for the integration of conflicting opinions.

This is something that can be learnt at any age, though easier when young. It is similar to learning a language.

This is a social and operational mechanism as simple as the concept of "cooperation" (cooperation was a "learned" phenomenon), that as of yet has not been cognitively defined across interacting societies... we have not socially evolved to that point yet... though global pressures are signalling the need for it.

Just like we teach math; 1+1=2
... we can teach interaction (i); i+i=change

originally posted by: tgidkp
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

for the love of god almighty PLEASE STOP repeating the word "chrojan".

it is awesome that you openly admit to not being qualified in any manner whatsoever to make your claims.... in particular, that it is a "cocktail", and those unforgivably ridiculous number counts.

gee guys, remember about a month ago when these update threads were full of real, knowledgeable information?


you are hereby requested to cease and desist this total nonsense.


danny.

Your new thread www.abovetopsecret.com...
appears to support my theory that this virus was designed in a lab which is what I have been saying since thread 1. Nice work.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
Anyone else find this conflicting and confusing??

WHO is right??

I will be wearing a mask and gloves when I go out shopping. I think i'll be wearing them for months to come, just like the chinese.

I'm not confused at all.

I think that most masks, even makeshift masks, can stop or at least slow down people who have Covid-19 from spreading it to others. The reason is because even makeshift masks can stop droplets of saliva containing the virus which frequently are expelled when we talk, etc.

However, once the moisture evaporates and the virus can float in the air, it can do so for a long time, and a makeshift mask is not going to stop that. Even an N95 mask may find it challenging to stop it and other hazmat gear is needed for full protection, maybe including goggles. So I wouldn't be a bit surprised if even healthcare workers wearing N95 masks and goggles might still contract the virus in some cases, since even that relatively good protection is less than perfect.

But the healthcare workers need the N95's more than the general population and there's a shortage of N95 masks, so there's probably still a push to make as many N95s as possible available to healthcare workers who need them the most, which I think is really behind this message to the public to not hog the limited number of N95 masks available. The message I'm getting is that the healthcare workers need the N95 masks more than I do, and I believe they do.

If you're still confused, I suggest listening to this expert from South Korea who I think understands the transmission probably as well as anybody and has a lot to say about masks; he's in favor of them, though I didn't really hear him advocating to hog the N95 masks making them unavailable to healthcare workers, and he goes into a lot of detail so you have to pay attention carefully to understand the implications of what he says.

You Need To Listen To This Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea

Thanks for the reply but i'm not really confused!

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
Thanks for the reply but i'm not really confused!

That's good.

I guess I misunderstood your post which said this:

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
Another report that states wearing masks doesn't prevent people from contracting the virus:

Face masks DO NOT stop healthy people from catching coronavirus and should only be worn by healthcare workers and patients, says WHO

www.dailymail.co.uk...

Anyone else find this conflicting and confusing??

But I suppose it's possible to read a source which you find confusing, and not be confused, perhaps if you choose to disregard the source you find confusing, or something like that. The source you cited is a bit conflicting.

Here's another source that might help resolve some of the conflicts. The advice is still divergent, but it might help sort out why. I think the bottom line is most masks are going to do more to protect other people from you, than they are to protect you, but it may still be a good idea to wear them even in that case since so many people are asymptomatic for so long.

COVID-19 Face Mask Advice, Explained

“A cloth face covering is not intended to protect the wearer, but may prevent the spread of virus from the wearer to others,” the updated CDC website now reads. “This would be especially important in the event that someone is infected but does not have symptoms.”

I think that's likely true. If there's a downside to wearing masks, it's that people might get the idea that the masks help protect them from others. That would be bad if they relaxed their social distancing as a result since that protection may not be very good at all; the rest of that article explains why.

originally posted by: puzzlesphere
a reply to: Byrd

Well, maybe I'm coming at it from a third or fourth angle... designer or philosopher... the professions that both scientists and engineers dismiss (though I am also both a scientist and an engineer by profession/s in different lives).

You have somewhat missed my point, as is wont of silo'd thinking, which funnily enough is almost necessary for many professions to achieve their focused outcomes... ie. engineers think like engineers.

You have fallen into the exact trap I am trying to highlight.

My point is not to quash a particular methodological approach, but to contextualise conflicting approaches (example: engineer/scientist), in a model (or many models, based on context), so as to generate value from the discovered contradictions.

I know this sounds like I am being very abstract, but on the contrary, this, I believe, is a simple mind model that applies to how we negotiate as people, and has practical examples at every level from the individual up to collectives of collectives.

Nope. I actually got that, being a multidisciplinary girl, myself. I've also seen it fail spectacularly.

Facetiously, what I am suggesting, is it is as simple as "flexible thinking" (two sides of that particular coin; positive or negative thinking)... though I believe there is a way (or a mind methodology that can be defined, that when learnt or understood inherently (grok'd if you like)), allows for the integration of conflicting opinions.

Actually, that's built into science (when you study methodologies and schools of thought. When I am looking at data as an anthropologist, I can look at it through the lens of several approaches and schools of thought which give different views of the data and different ways of asking questions.) In working with other researchers we get a broad range of approaches - the advice I got from an anthropologist (linguist) was very different than the approach suggested by another anthropologist (semioticist.)

There's a lot of public misconceptions about how we work and who we work with and how we do science. Lots of complaints about "scientists don't think outside the box" -- and it's just not true.

However... this is getting off-topic and I do have something more useful to offer... you'll forgive me, I hope, if I cut this shourt?

a reply to: puzzlesphere

the lyrics to one of my favorite radiohead tunes says:

I'm a reasonable man,
get off my case.
get off my case.
get off my case.


REASONABILITY is everything.

An interesting set of statistics, suggested by Rachael Maddow's show -- look at the data from the Veterans' Administration. These facilities are in all the states plus the territories and they take care of patients who range from the very young to the very old.

Most importantly, they have a consistent way of defining illness and recovery (and of recording deaths.) This has been a problem with the data from around the world.

In any case, here's the link: www.publichealth.va.gov...

As of today, there's 3,265 Positive Veteran Cases. Deaths: 167 (up 23 from yesterday) And they list who died... not by name but facility

Today's hotspots:
Bronx, NY: 46 inpatient, 163 outpatient
New Jersey HCS (East Orange): 59 inpatient, 114 outpatient
New Orleans, LA: 37 inpatient, 376 outpatient
New York HHS (Brooklyn): 82 inpatient, 163 outpatient

There's a lot of data there, and I think I'll pick just a few to track... so if anyone wants to track others on this data list, step up and do it!

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

i made that thread just for you.

no, really.

i am glad you took a look at it.

Last Coronavirus Updates for the night ( I think this is the right thread...) :




www.worldometers.info...
bnonews.com...