Corona Virus Updates Part 5

EIDD-2801 shows efficacy against COVID-19 in human cells and mice

Both in vitro and in vivo.

Researchers have demonstrated that EIDD-2801, an oral antiviral drug, can be used as either a prophylactic or a therapeutic for SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic. The drug also showed efficacy against related coronaviruses SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

Collaborators from the University of North Carolina at (UNC-) Chapel Hill Gillings School of Global Public Health, Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) and the Emory Institute for Drug Development (EIDD), all US, tested EIDD-2801 in both mice and cultured human lung cells infected with the various coronaviruses. Their findings were published in Science Translational Medicine.

Article:

Science Translational Medicine: An orally bioavailable broad-spectrum antiviral inhibits SARS-CoV-2 in human airway epithelial cell cultures and multiple coronaviruses in mice

Abstract

Coronaviruses (CoVs) traffic frequently between species resulting in novel disease outbreaks, most recently exemplified by the newly emerged SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Herein, we show that the ribonucleoside analog β-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC, EIDD-1931) has broad spectrum antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and related zoonotic group 2b or 2c Bat-CoVs, as well as increased potency against a coronavirus bearing resistance mutations to the nucleoside analog inhibitor remdesivir. In mice infected with SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV, both prophylactic and therapeutic administration of EIDD-2801, an orally bioavailable NHC-prodrug (β-D-N4-hydroxycytidine-5′-isopropyl ester), improved pulmonary function, and reduced virus titer and body weight loss. Decreased MERS-CoV yields in vitro and in vivo were associated with increased transition mutation frequency in viral but not host cell RNA, supporting a mechanism of lethal mutagenesis in CoV. The potency of NHC/EIDD-2801 against multiple coronaviruses and oral bioavailability highlight its potential utility as an effective antiviral against SARS-CoV-2 and other future zoonotic coronaviruses.

a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

I thought about getting my chainsaw out at the weekend.

Whilst I consider myself competent, having been trained and also having relevant safety gear (wouldn’t use mine without it) I decided best place for the chainsaw to stay at present was in the shed.

They are dangerous bits of kit and too many people don’t give them the respect they deserve.

Keep that locked in your trunk and don’t let your dad near the keys

MR

originally posted by: Brit-Tex
a reply to: Arbitrageur

And I fully understand that as well but if the number of recovered or cases closed outside are not being reported then the stats are going to be out of wack are they not.

There will be a lag, maybe even significant, as they will wind up just throwing all of them that don't die into the recovered side once a certain amount of time passes or this gets over with. That is a known aspect of this kind of data.

originally posted by: Brit-Tex
a reply to: Arbitrageur

And I fully understand that as well but if the number of recovered or cases closed outside are not being reported then the stats are going to be out of wack are they not.

I have no doubt the stats are out of whack for many reasons, and not just for failure to follow up on unresolved cases to see if they are resolved. There are reports of people dying at home who aren't even being tested, or counted in the stats for coronavirus deaths, which is a different problem than the one you mention, not to mention many who have it who are not tested at all due to the lack of availability of tests.

This study says to expect the statistics to be out of whack during a pandemic, so why should we not expect that to be the case?
academic.oup.com...

During an outbreak of a novel or emerging infectious agent such as SARS, one of the most important epidemiologic quantities to be determined is the case fatality ratio—the proportion of cases who eventually die from the disease. This ratio is often estimated by using aggregate numbers of cases and deaths at a single time point, such as those compiled daily by the World Health Organization during the course of the SARS epidemic (5). However, simple estimates of the case fatality ratio obtained from these reports can be misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients. The estimates obtained during the SARS epidemic by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of reported cases were much lower (3–5 percent during the first few weeks of the global outbreak) than those obtained when appropriate statistical techniques were used and varied significantly between countries (6–8). Furthermore, as the epidemic progressed, these statistically naïve estimates falsely suggested a rise in the case fatality ratio (9), fueling the already high levels of public alarm in the affected populations.

There are even more issues, like lack of consistency in reporting methods between various countries and between various states in the USA. Another factor is an intelligence report suggesting that China fudged their numbers intentionally.

The naive calculation using only closed cases will likely be wrong, giving too high a CFR, and a naive calculation using open cases will also likely be wrong, giving a CFR that might be too low. That paper suggests more advanced methods of making CFR estimates, though given all the issues mentioned above, the more advanced calculation methods are probably going to be less wrong than the naive estimates, but still wrong and probably not right until the number of unresolved cases becomes negligible.

Here's the article about the number of deaths being undercounted in New York in case you missed it, from some pages back:
a reply to: game over man
Link

April 6 (GMT)

30331 new cases and 1255 new deaths in the United States

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

So it's not intentional fudging the numbers like China, but still undercounting due to lack of testing capability.

Here's another update for NY. Oneida county. We went from 105 up to 121 today:
www.wktv.com...

UTICA, N.Y. – The number of coronavirus cases in Oneida County jumped 16 on Tuesday to 121 in total.

Numbers update for the night (Worldometers first) :







www.worldometers.info...

(Thank Phage for the completeness, and the extra Numbers , sorry for the extra long posts it brings with it.))

BNO Updates :






bnonews.com...

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
modelling from Alessandro Vespignani

Modeling covid in the continental US
Project is work in progress, features such as data download, interactive explorations and state projections will be added in the next days.

@alexvespi on twitter

A grim model. The US is on the "unmitigated" section of that model at this point. I'm not surprised, given the lack of support for social distancing and mitigation and the numbers who ignore the rules.

I disagree with you. The numbers the model predicted for April 5th were 19,130 deaths for unmitigated compared to 10, 510 for mitigated. End of yesterday the US had 10,871 deaths, so we are actually tracking slightly below the "stay at home" deaths the model predicted.

Worldometer USA States :





www.worldometers.info...

BNO USA states :





On the second screencap, I see "U.S. Military", which I hadn't seen before.

bnonews.com...

Tomorrow, I'm going to hug my dad, and tell him what I went through tonight.
I have never hugged my dad in my life. It's not what we do.
But, in this one case, he deserves it. He has to know what it almost cost, and that I love him, and my mother.

See you all tomorrow.

Thanks Marlborough Red for the kind words, Strangely enough, that is my poison of choice

So I just read a story about the lockdown in Wuhan being lifted finally. Good news for the people of Wuhan!!! They deserve the most sunshine possible imo.

The picture that was with the story showed a crowd of residents and all were wearing mask. It’s possible it was just a stock photo added to The story, but it led me to one question I’ve had in the back of my mind since this started .

Is it going to just simply be the new human norm, that we all wear mask? Like you put on your undies and shirt and mask on every morning?

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
modelling from Alessandro Vespignani

Modeling covid in the continental US
Project is work in progress, features such as data download, interactive explorations and state projections will be added in the next days.

@alexvespi on twitter

A grim model. The US is on the "unmitigated" section of that model at this point. I'm not surprised, given the lack of support for social distancing and mitigation and the numbers who ignore the rules.

I disagree with you. The numbers the model predicted for April 5th were 19,130 deaths for unmitigated compared to 10, 510 for mitigated. End of yesterday the US had 10,871 deaths, so we are actually tracking slightly below the "stay at home" deaths the model predicted.

Doublechecked. You are correct. I misread the chart (was looking at April 3 and not April 7.)

Update from the border between Chile and Bolivia:

Around 200 Bolivians are trying to get back to Bolivia. Bolivia closed the border even for their citizens that were abroad. The tension is growing. A person tried to take away a weapon from one of the military and was beaten down (the note doesn't state if he tried to take away the weapon from a Chilean military or from a Bolivian military person), some have fainted. They are receiving medical treatment in Chile.

Video in the note (only viewable in spanish): spanish for video
Source in english: link

a reply to: elitegamer23

I keep thinking of the billions spent on facial recognition and everyone screwing it up with a one dollar mask.

originally posted by: elitegamer23
So I just read a story about the lockdown in Wuhan being lifted finally. Good news for the people of Wuhan!!! They deserve the most sunshine possible imo.

The picture that was with the story showed a crowd of residents and all were wearing mask. It’s possible it was just a stock photo added to The story, but it led me to one question I’ve had in the back of my mind since this started .

CNN indicated it was taken April 8. Don't know the terms of the lockdown but there still may be a strong suggestion to wear masks

Is it going to just simply be the new human norm, that we all wear mask? Like you put on your undies and shirt and mask on every morning?

I think that people will feel more free to wear them if they have sensitivities or other problems. I think you're right that it's normalizing the use but I don't see it (at this point) becoming standard wear.

a reply to: Byrd

Let's hope the hospitals do take it as a wake up call that keeping a LOT more masks in stock when this is over is the new standard.

originally posted by: elitegamer23
So I just read a story about the lockdown in Wuhan being lifted finally. Good news for the people of Wuhan!!! They deserve the most sunshine possible imo.

The picture that was with the story showed a crowd of residents and all were wearing mask. It’s possible it was just a stock photo added to The story, but it led me to one question I’ve had in the back of my mind since this started .

Is it going to just simply be the new human norm, that we all wear mask? Like you put on your undies and shirt and mask on every morning?

There are videos on Twitter. Lots of people leaving the city. The bullet trains are supposed to start running again too. The virus isn't gone so I assume everyone will continue to wear a mask.

Finally on a good note here
Production is ramping-up fast here Ont. Canada



Since we can't depend on US anymore
Trump can go jump off a bridge now
Now just need to redirect all that BC fiber for our own production