Corona Virus Updates Part 5

From the French Live Feed :

- 9h22am : Financial Times Graph of the Outbreak across the World on Friday 27th March :

Sources : twitter.com... and www.ft.com... (More graphs on the FT link)

- 9h40 : Seven Regional Health Agencies in France are calling for volunteers, because their workforce is overworked and needs as much extra help as possible.

- 11h10 : People with 3D Printers in UK grouping together to print Masks for Medical Staff, more at the link : www.3dcrowd.uk...

- 11h40 : 23,000 Medical masks found in back of Van in Paris, Man who was selling them arrested, and placed in detention awaiting trial, facing serious charges.

- 12h40 : 3 Pharmacy owners in the Alpes-Maritimes region, are being charged with selling Medical Masks. It is currently illegal to sell Medical Masks in France, since all of the Masks have been requisitioned for the Medical Staff.

- 13h40 : Seven Patients transferred by Medicalised Bus from Reims Hospital to Orléans Hospital. France is currently ferrying Patients across the country in Military Airplanes, Military Helicopters, High Speed Trains, and now Buses.

Folks understand this about face masks. But I'd say some protection is better then none. Just be careful and try to stay away from people.

Face masks can foster a false sense of security.
Commercial face masks, medical authorities say, can block particles measuring 3 to 5 micrometers. Wear it against pollen, by all means. The coronavirus currently , however, measures 0.1 micrometer.

“The most dangerous place is not the concert venue or the packed commuter train,” Shukan Gendai says. “It’s the hospital waiting room.”

Beginning as a defense against colds, flu and pollen, the mask gradually became habitual. We felt naked without it.

Correct me on the micrometers. Might have translated it wrong.

This is why it is not safe to fly. Just got this now.

www.japantimes.co.jp...

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Mark98SS

It doesn't say anything about physical distancing.
The signing today, I guess this is fine, as long as it's not more than 10 people.

Well here in the UK ZBorus and his advisors have been tested positive for it and they were acting like this do as I say not as I do.

Maybe that's why there were no Democrats there.

UK confirmed now at 17,089

Deaths now at 1,019

Link

This is getting really scary

originally posted by: Tracele
UK confirmed now at 17,089

Deaths now at 1,019

Link

This is getting really scary

260 new deaths. I read an article yesterday which stated this :
“The total death toll from the coronavirus in the UK may be only 5,700, new research suggests.

Earlier estimates had suggested the toll could be as high as 250,000, and even lower ones placed it at around 20,000.

But the new analysis suggests it may reach no higher than 250 per day.”
And yet we’re at 260 today, some “2-3 weeks from the peak” according to the deputy health minister. 😢

a reply to: Tracele

That's quite a lot of deaths out of amount of cases actually. or is it: 5.96%

Some observations from a longtime lurker and occasional poster.

We’re in a suburban to rural area, flyover country US. State is in shelter at home, no going anywhere unless it’s for food meds or critical work. Employers are giving necessary employees paperwork in event they’re stopped. Confirmed cases in area but not yet an epidemic.

So is there panic, concern? Hardly. Yesterday groups of motorcycles were out on rides, nice spring day. People lined up outside bars to get their beer and food, zero distancing. Groups of people on walks, again no distancing. Just another day.

Couldn’t help thinking “if this keeps up there WILL be martial law”.

Still isn’t real for parts of the country.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

SARS-Cov-2 linked to cardiac damage even in people without underlying cardiac problems.

www.sciencedaily.com... ine%2Fdiseases_and_conditions+%28Diseases+and+Conditions+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

originally posted by: ComebackLogic

originally posted by: Tracele
UK confirmed now at 17,089

Deaths now at 1,019

Link

This is getting really scary

260 new deaths. I read an article yesterday which stated this :
“The total death toll from the coronavirus in the UK may be only 5,700, new research suggests.

Earlier estimates had suggested the toll could be as high as 250,000, and even lower ones placed it at around 20,000.

But the new analysis suggests it may reach no higher than 250 per day.”
And yet we’re at 260 today, some “2-3 weeks from the peak” according to the deputy health minister. 😢

I heard they based the reduced prediction on Chinese statistical trends. Which we all know is about as scientific as sticking your finger on a random number

I Michigan if you out of state plates expect to hand over $500. Not the governor or AG just the locals told to do what they think is best.
0 State leadership

According to the JHU map Australia suddenly jumped from 13 to 460 deaths!? That can't be correct..

originally posted by: ComebackLogic

originally posted by: Tracele
UK confirmed now at 17,089

Deaths now at 1,019

Link

This is getting really scary

260 new deaths. I read an article yesterday which stated this :
“The total death toll from the coronavirus in the UK may be only 5,700, new research suggests.

Earlier estimates had suggested the toll could be as high as 250,000, and even lower ones placed it at around 20,000.

But the new analysis suggests it may reach no higher than 250 per day.”
And yet we’re at 260 today, some “2-3 weeks from the peak” according to the deputy health minister. 😢

I dread to think how this is going to go, and yet still people are out meeting up! I suspect we’ll be forced into a more controlled lockdown 😕

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
a reply to: Tracele

That's quite a lot of deaths out of amount of cases actually. or is it: 5.96%

Let’s hope that number comes down.

From the Guardian Live Feed :

- 9.04am : World infected goes above 600,000
(Can anyone do the the time its taken for each 100K ? Seems like its going really fast now)

- 10.28am : Police in South Africa fire Rubber Bullets at queue outside supermarket in Yeoville, where people were apparently not respecting the self-distancing limit.

- 10.44am : Saudi Arabian Airlines has agreed to operate exceptional flights to repatriate British Nationals, flights from Riyad, Jeddah, and Dammam starting 29th March. Additional flights as required.

- 10.59am : People are (rightly) Giving Richard Branson a hard time online, after news broke that Virgin Atlantic is asking for Hundreds of Millions of Pounds in state aid.
twitter.com...
twitter.com...
twitter.com...

- 11.13am : Spain has record Death toll for second day in a row. 832 People died between Friday and Saturday.

- 12.26pm : Doctor dies in Uzbekistan, after trying to treat a coronavirus infection that the patient had kept secret.

The 39-year-old man had been in contact with Uzbekistan’s “patient zero”.

The doctor was admitted to hospital in a critical condition on 26 March and died two days later. He is the second person known to have died of the coronavirus in the country, according to Reuters.

- 12.38pm : Group of Teenagers in North of England who claimed to have Coronavirus and coughed at NHS staff, will be prosecuted, Police have said :

We have attended reports of a group of youths coughing at NHS staff stating they have coronavirus. The youths will be prosecuted as will their parental guardians.

This is an absolutely abhorrent incident involving abuse of our NHS heroes. I will once again urge all parents and persons with parental responsibility to make sure that their children stay inside. You too can and will be prosecuted if you fail to keep your children inside.

- 1.03pm : "Greece residents should prepare for the long haul " the country’s development and investment minister Adonis Georgiadis warned today. The restrictions will be in place "until scientists tell us we have beaten the virus."
"The measures prohibiting circulation in our country will last much longer than April 6th"

- 1.13pm : Switzerland has had another 38 people die from COVID-19 in the last 24hrs, bringing the total to 235, and the number of cases has also increased to 13,213 from 12,161.

- 1.24pm : Plans in India to turn Railway Coaches into Isolation Wards.
One train coach has been turned into a prototype Quarantine facility. The plan is for each of India's 16 railway Zones, to convert 10 Coaches each.
Pics on twitter here : twitter.com...

- 1.52pm : Outrage in Kenya, as Police tear gas Ferry commuters, causing them to vomit, spit, and wipe tears away from their faces, potentially increasing the chances of the spread of the Disease.

- 2.21pm : Singapore reports 70 news cases, 41 imported, and 29 local cases who had not recently travelled abroad. More than half of SIngapores cases have been from overseas.

- 2.48pm : French Supermarkets agree to supply fruit and vegetables from local, French Farmers.

To support French production, we have decided to stop the sale of fruit and vegetables from abroad where there is a French alternative available.

Carrefour, Leclerc and Intermarché have agreed, among others.

- 2.58pm : UK Death toll passes 1,000.

- 3.03pm : All Migrants in Portugal to be treated as Permanent Residents until 1st July, to ensure they have access to Public Services during the Outbreak.

Updating from Finland.

-By 9.30 on the 27 March, a total of 1,025 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) have been diagnosed in Finland.

-There have been seven deaths in Finland that have been determined to have resulted from the coronavirus. Six of these deaths have happened in the Helsinki University Hospital catchment area and one in the Tampere University Hospital catchment area.

-Starting 27 March, the Government will also restrict traffic and movement between the Uusimaa region and Finland’s other regions. The Government Decree on the use of powers laid down in the Emergency Powers Act was submitted to the Parliament for discussion on 25 March. The Decree is currently being discussed by Parliament. The restrictions will be in force until 19 April 2020.

Source: Finnish institute for health and welfare

I am not in the Uusimaa region but our capital city, Helsinki, is. People can go to work and come back to the region, but if, let's say i want to take a bus and see my friends in Helsinki, well that is a no. There is police and the army blocking the roads and checking everyone. Morning news broadcast looked like a b-class dystopian sci-fi movie.

originally posted by: Tracele

originally posted by: ComebackLogic

originally posted by: Tracele
UK confirmed now at 17,089

Deaths now at 1,019

Link

This is getting really scary

260 new deaths. I read an article yesterday which stated this :
“The total death toll from the coronavirus in the UK may be only 5,700, new research suggests.

Earlier estimates had suggested the toll could be as high as 250,000, and even lower ones placed it at around 20,000.

But the new analysis suggests it may reach no higher than 250 per day.”
And yet we’re at 260 today, some “2-3 weeks from the peak” according to the deputy health minister. 😢

I dread to think how this is going to go, and yet still people are out meeting up! I suspect we’ll be forced into a more controlled lockdown 😕

Someone pointed this out earlier, it's something I'v been saying for weeks but it doesn't seem to be sinking in (A1 below).

It's like when I said at the beginning it's NOT the flu - but people wouldn't have it a try to throw numbers around to try and compare.

This is exponential. Your life and understanding of the world is linear - you cannot comprehend what this means or is doing uness you learn how to understand the maths.

The maths is simple - and it will open your eyes.

A1: The deaths today have no bearing whatsoever of the number of confirmed infections numbers today.

It takes between 5 days and a month to start to show symptoms.

After symptoms it takes between 2 to 3 weeks to kill you.

THEREFORE: The people dying today started showing symptoms AT BEST 2 weeks ago, AT WORST 3 weeks ago.

(why at best / at worst?) - because 2 weeks ago there were MORE confirmed cases than 3 weeks ago - the percentage who die is better if it's compared to 2 weeks ago than to 3 weeks ago.

The people dying today were infected at best 3 weeks ago, at worst 7 weeks ago.

That means this will go on for AT LEAST another 2 months.

The CFR: Is impossible to calculate.

With such a wide divergence of the emergence of symptoms and the time to death (or even longer in some cases time to recovery), then it's going to be different for every single person, and unless you can precisely pin-point the time of infection and the time of outcome for every person then you can't even calculate an average.

Some people try to work it out as deaths now / infections now - this is highly inaccurate.

Some people tru to work it out as deaths now / (deaths now + recovered now) - this is more accurate but is still way out.

A better way is to calculate deaths now / confirmed cases 2 to 3 weeks ago - this is still inaccurate because of variations in time to symptoms and death.

Some people say this isn't valid because it doesn't account for the 10x or 50x or however many infected people there are who aren't officially confirmed.

However, politics is rearing it's ugly head into this in every country - and the numbers of dead and the numbers of confirmed are only as accurate as the testing.

In Germany for example the suggestion is that the way that deaths are attributed are lowering the numbers of dead to this disease to a much lower CFR.

So, for most countries the numbers of confrmed dead are a percentage of the confrmed cases, and so it is probably a reasonably accurate estimate (by comparing dead today vs confirmed cases 2 to 3 weeks ago).

Even in the UK there are rumours, probably based in reality, that if you were not previously confirmed as having covid-19 and you die, your death will not be attributed to covid-19.

On top of all of this - once that the medical system is overwhelmed then there will be no medical intervention for even people who would otherwise survive - meaning the deaths WILL increase even farther.

The government don't shut down the country, shut down the economy, and start building hospitals for fun.

In the UK we are going to have 4 massive and I mean MASSIVE temporary hospitals within a weeks or 2 - that TELLS you how bad this really is.

And finally - what are the chances that the PM, Health Chief and top Medical bod ALL get the virus on the same day?

They can hardly say - "hey folks, the # is about to hit the fan, so we're off to an underground base until it's all over" - so they say "we're self isolating, so you're not going to see us around for a bit".

I don't believe those 3 have it all on the same day for 1 second.

originally posted by: DankyDSmythe

originally posted by: Tracele

originally posted by: ComebackLogic

originally posted by: Tracele
UK confirmed now at 17,089

Deaths now at 1,019

Link

This is getting really scary

260 new deaths. I read an article yesterday which stated this :
“The total death toll from the coronavirus in the UK may be only 5,700, new research suggests.

Earlier estimates had suggested the toll could be as high as 250,000, and even lower ones placed it at around 20,000.

But the new analysis suggests it may reach no higher than 250 per day.”
And yet we’re at 260 today, some “2-3 weeks from the peak” according to the deputy health minister. 😢

I dread to think how this is going to go, and yet still people are out meeting up! I suspect we’ll be forced into a more controlled lockdown 😕

Someone pointed this out earlier, it's something I'v been saying for weeks but it doesn't seem to be sinking in (A1 below).

It's like when I said at the beginning it's NOT the flu - but people wouldn't have it a try to throw numbers around to try and compare.

This is exponential. Your life and understanding of the world is linear - you cannot comprehend what this means or is doing uness you learn how to understand the maths.

The maths is simple - and it will open your eyes.

A1: The deaths today have no bearing whatsoever of the number of confirmed infections numbers today.

It takes between 5 days and a month to start to show symptoms.

After symptoms it takes between 2 to 3 weeks to kill you.

THEREFORE: The people dying today started showing symptoms AT BEST 2 weeks ago, AT WORST 3 weeks ago.

(why at best / at worst?) - because 2 weeks ago there were MORE confirmed cases than 3 weeks ago - the percentage who die is better if it's compared to 2 weeks ago than to 3 weeks ago.

The people dying today were infected at best 3 weeks ago, at worst 7 weeks ago.

That means this will go on for AT LEAST another 2 months.

The CFR: Is impossible to calculate.

With such a wide divergence of the emergence of symptoms and the time to death (or even longer in some cases time to recovery), then it's going to be different for every single person, and unless you can precisely pin-point the time of infection and the time of outcome for every person then you can't even calculate an average.

Some people try to work it out as deaths now / infections now - this is highly inaccurate.

Some people tru to work it out as deaths now / (deaths now + recovered now) - this is more accurate but is still way out.

A better way is to calculate deaths now / confirmed cases 2 to 3 weeks ago - this is still inaccurate because of variations in time to symptoms and death.

Some people say this isn't valid because it doesn't account for the 10x or 50x or however many infected people there are who aren't officially confirmed.

However, politics is rearing it's ugly head into this in every country - and the numbers of dead and the numbers of confirmed are only as accurate as the testing.

In Germany for example the suggestion is that the way that deaths are attributed are lowering the numbers of dead to this disease to a much lower CFR.

So, for most countries the numbers of confrmed dead are a percentage of the confrmed cases, and so it is probably a reasonably accurate estimate (by comparing dead today vs confirmed cases 2 to 3 weeks ago).

Even in the UK there are rumours, probably based in reality, that if you were not previously confirmed as having covid-19 and you die, your death will not be attributed to covid-19.

On top of all of this - once that the medical system is overwhelmed then there will be no medical intervention for even people who would otherwise survive - meaning the deaths WILL increase even farther.

The government don't shut down the country, shut down the economy, and start building hospitals for fun.

In the UK we are going to have 4 massive and I mean MASSIVE temporary hospitals within a weeks or 2 - that TELLS you how bad this really is.

And finally - what are the chances that the PM, Health Chief and top Medical bod ALL get the virus on the same day?

They can hardly say - "hey folks, the # is about to hit the fan, so we're off to an underground base until it's all over" - so they say "we're self isolating, so you're not going to see us around for a bit".

I don't believe those 3 have it all on the same day for 1 second.

I thought the same thing to be honest. I said a couple of weeks ago before this lockdown that it will explode in the next month with so many people still going out and mixing with lots of people... I see though the ‘it’s just the flu’ brigade have decreased in numbers though so hopefully they’re realising but that won’t help now as they’ll have helped spread this around even more...

I have two questions for the group; with so many knowledgeable people and diverse occupations I'd love to hear your thoughts:

1) The # of police quarantined or infected in both the Detroit and NYPD police force is getting pretty high. I don't know how many police are on each force, but what happens when they don't have enough police for cities that size? I thought I had read that the National Guard lends support at that point, but I thought someone here would know. I'm 20 minutes outside of Detroit.

2) Many reports say to avoid avoid Advil/Ibuprofen because it exacerbates lung problems with COVID-19; then other reports say that is not true. I am allergic to Tylenol which is why I'm asking.

Thanks!

a reply to: Tukota

yes avoid ibruprofen is the advice given in UK - we use paracetamol instead.

as for national guard be them or the army or both.