Corona Virus Updates Part 5

a reply to: Phage

Yea “pandemic” hence that word pandemic, I dont like to blame but I am focusing on the first thing that came to mind with the current administration the flu bullcrap. Also the rumor of a network talking head had to convince the potus, to focus on a pandemic. 🤦‍♂️ This is what happens when unqualified idiots lead the country just because they are rich or have nepotistic positions,

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Nyiah

So what?

Does it change the fact that our health system will be stretched to its limits, and probably beyond, in short order?

Ultimately, I doubt we will hit those limits. But if it does, it does. Right now, it's just a potential outcome, even you know that.
At this point in time, we need to start thinking about getting back to business soon in a very literal sense, and isolating the vulnerable like they need to be. Otherwise, the potential fallout from that is an uprising, and those are generally violent and deadly, too.

a reply to: Nyiah

Ultimately, I doubt we will hit those limits.

Depends on where you are, I guess. But we won't have to wait much longer to find out.

Otherwise, the potential fallout from that is an uprising

How very ATSey, and I have no doubt there are some who are waiting with 'bated breath.

We've heard that before. In general, people are better than you hope. Except the TP hoarders. They're dicks.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

originally posted by: musicismagic

Won't say which way

Of course you won't...



Look, it's this aggravating BS... again

I said this: Won't say which way because I don't live there and haven't seen in person.
I've tried to stay with fairly accurate updates. Other then Hokkaido (which I don't have current update on a possible shutdown) I go based upon what is usually posted here on the forum. In my mind its not totally BS at all. And I try my best to stay away from doom and gloom. Don't want to get a headache .

a reply to: musicismagic

Meh doom and gloom is our reality right now.

The truth has revealed itself.

originally posted by: liejunkie01
a reply to: Bicent

Being naive to think the populace of nyc will stay orderly when the shtf.

I think SHTF already.

I think people are in shock,. I think people like my wife think it will be ok and have their head in the sand.

I watched a small documentary on hurricane Katrina earlier. There was a point where people realized the government wasnt going to help immediately. They felt abandoned. This is when society was in survival mode.

All it will take is a few more weeks of ignorance for a couple up populace to feel abandoned.

But that is my opinion. That is what some call "doom porn".

Every single day we are getting more and more radical news that is stripping away at people's sanity. When will the breaking point happen? Who has their head in the sand?

You know, we had Japanese reporters reporting on the Katrina disaster. They showed us videos of homes where it said "Don't Entry". And their drawings on the signs meant it. I really agree with you.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Nyiah

Ultimately, I doubt we will hit those limits.

Depends on where you are, I guess. But we won't have to wait much longer.

I'll concede there's probably going to be some high number pockets around the country, but scattered, not widespread. Edit: I'm referring here to directly related deaths and severe cases, not merely diagnosed mild/asymptomatic ones added on top of them.

We can meet in the middle here at least for the topic's sake.

Otherwise, the potential fallout from that is an uprising

How very ATSey, and I have no doubt there are some who are waiting with 'bated breath.

We've heard that before. In general, people are better than you hope.

Generally. But we also know that as lazy and apathetic as Americans are, they still don't like being forced into doing things, or putting up with circumstances they genuinely loathe. Joblessness and stability uncertainty tend to be major motivators/catalysts to taking stands. Push enough buttons, one will activate something eventually.

a reply to: Phage

. Except the TP hoarders. They're dicks. 

You mean assholes don't you...

a reply to: Nyiah

I think, in general, Americans are pretty good at dealing with bad situations.

My father was born in 1919 and things were just great in 1930.
My parents watched the bombing of Pearl Harbor from Roundtop (Neo knows). Hawaii was under actual, really, for real, martial law.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Nyiah

I think in general, Americans are pretty good at dealing with bad situations.

My parents watched the bombing of Pearl Harbor from Roundtop (Neo knows). Hawaii was under actual, really, for real, martial law.

Come on, Phage, foreign enemy bombs dropped at one location are quite a bit different from mass drastic changes country-wide for an illness most will deal with swimmingly without medical aid beyond OTCs.

My wife’s friends, a family of 4 in NorCal all have symptoms of the virus, high fevers, etc, we’re told by hospital to stay home and quarantine, did not get tested.

a reply to: Nyiah

You missed the "In general" part. I guess.
Ok.
Americans suck. You win.

a reply to: Phage

If so,there would have been flags and forks raised in 2008

a reply to: Nyiah

I disagree but I respect your opinion. Very much. This reply won’t age well maybe we will come back to it in a month. It does not matter who is right. I was told a time like this may come, but did not believe now I do. The people phage remembers are dead.,

a reply to: all2human

Yeah. Americans suck.
I get it.

I'm in the high risk group. Maybe I'll die before the real carnage begins.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: all2human

Yeah. Americans suck.
I get it.

I'm in the high risk group. Maybe I'll die before the real carnage begins.

~ To be honest this is what I expect to happen to me since Im in the high risk group as well. Id just like to stick it out through the Spring so I can see my garden blossom and finish my stock of apocalypse Crown Royal

Update related news: Tennessee Hills Distillery to donate sanitizer, proceeds go to food banks. News Channel 11 spoke to Callahan, who said he and a group of volunteers have mixed over 500 gallons of the vodka-based hand sanitizer since Monday. According to Callahan, Tennessee Hills Distillery staff and volunteers began distributing the high-proof vodka, glycerin, and Aloe vera blend Friday by the gallon to police and sheriff departments, health facilities, and fire departments — workers who don’t have a work-from-home option amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.wjhl.com...

a reply to: SeektoUnderstand

Actually it's quite necessary. People are following advice and Instructions from the government in an attempt to control the virus.

Italy is at breaking point, their hospitals are full. This will happen the world over. It's happening it the UK now, were just 2 weeks behind.

originally posted by: saladfingers123456
FORE-NOTE: So I've plucked up the courage to post this... I CANT STRESS ENOUGH THAT THIS MAY NOT BE ACCURATE, but no one else is doing it, so I took a shot.

Projections... Not totally accurate (how could they be!?), but probably only out by 1-4 weeks??!.
Don't take any of this as fact... obviously! But it is an interpretation of the data so far. If the numbers continue to match up every day... then you get the idea and how this will scale. It should make you piss your pants. And you really don't want to see the death projections I've done on the current death rate curve(!!)...

So... take this for what it is... estimates and guess work based upon the current daily data. Hope it isn't too frightening.
:/ Just don't look if you don't think you can handle it. These are figures for worldwide growth...

Feb 29th 86,012
Mar 1st 87,508 %Gain 1.739%
(%Gain 87,508 - 86,012 = 1,496 / 86,012 = 0.0173929219178719 x 100 = 1.739%)

Mar 2nd 90,306 %Gain 3.197%
Mar 3rd 92,828 %Gain 2.792%
Mar 4th 95,120 %Gain 2.469%
Mar 5th 95,748 %Gain .660%
Mar 6th 101,598 %Gain 6.109%
Mar 7th 105,820 %Gain 4.155%
Mar 8th 109,835 %Gain 3.794%
Mar 9th 113,584 %Gain 3.413%
Mar 10th 118,550 %Gain 4.372%
Mar 11th 125,865 %Gain 6.170%
Mar 12th 126,135 %Gain 0.214%
Mar 13th 144,514 %Gain 14.570$
Mar 14th 149,943 %Gain 3.756%
Mar 15th 162,687 %Gain 8.499%
Mar 16th 174,786 %Gain 7.436%
Mar 17th 195,892 %Gain 12.075%
Mar 18th 214,894 %Gain 9.700%

PROJECTIONS FROM THIS POINT WITH CONTINUED CURVE>>> Might be too aggressive... I will update this projection as time goes on. TAKE NOTE OF THE SPEED GAIN BEYOND WEEK 3...

Mar 19th 245,745 (ACTUAL STATED 242,092)
Mar 20th 286,057 (ACTUAL STATED 275,132)
Mar 21st 337,305
Mar 22nd 401,857
Mar 23rd 480,184
Mar 24th 579,459
Mar 25th 705,337
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>1 week
Mar 26th 862,853
Mar 27th 1,058,200
Mar 28th 1,293,600
Mar 29th 1,566,900
Mar 30th 1,897,600
Mar 31st 2,299,700
Apr 1st 2,786,800
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>2 weeks
Apr 2nd 3,363,700
Apr 3rd 4,071,000
Apr 4th 4,937,500
Apr 5th 6,003,600
Apr 6th 7,306,000
Apr 7th 8,884,000
Apr 8th 10,729,200
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>3 weeks
Apr 9th 13,021,200
Apr 10th 15,882,000
Apr 11th 19,475,600
Apr 12th 23,912,300
Apr 13th 29,474,400
Apr 14th 36,469,000
Apr 15th 44,931,400
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>4 weeks
Apr 16th 54,527,900
Apr 17th 66,672,600
Apr 18th 82,989,700
Apr 19th 102,516,200
Apr 20th 123,543,800
Apr 21st 149,933,800
Apr 22nd 184,511,700
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>5 weeks
Apr 23rd 228,675,900
Apr 24th 283,525,200
Apr 25th 352,783,200
Apr 26th 438,838,300
Apr 27th 546,794,300
Apr 28th 681,631,500
Apr 29th 846,108,300
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>6 weeks
Apr 30th 1,039,300,000
May 1st 1,277,200,000
May 2nd 1,577,900,000
May 3rd 1,934,700,000
May 4th 2,341,200,000
May 5th 2,815,200,000
May 6th 3,364,900,000
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>7 weeks
May 7th 4,013,700,000
May 8th 4,779,900,000
May 9th 5,687,100,000
May 10th 6,772,300,000
May 11th 8,013,600,000 EVERYONE.

Final note, this is PURELY based upon released figures and doesn't take into account what might be the real level of infection, instead of confirmed cases. Remember people saying "add a zero", well, if you do that, those numbers are brought further forward.

The above is why I think our leaders are talking total BS. Make a copy of this and do your own comparisons as data comes in. It should give you a good idea of how it will scale. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. If I don't share this now, then it might be too late to actually help people understand the time scales we're dealing with...
Sorry

My projection for the final death toll was between 4-8m and 0.5-1.5bn based on a multitude of dependencies and unknowns. I think we are on target for that if this episode/outbreak is to run for a year!

So makes you wonder, is this the real number dead, brings the lockdowns/concerns into perspective and brings the "actions" into perspective.

Does it not.

originally posted by: CthruU

So makes you wonder, is this the real number dead, brings the lockdowns/concerns into perspective and brings the "actions" into perspective.

Does it not.

Maybe based on the earlier numbers I did for China which came out at 32m after 90 days for the whole of China and we still have till end of April to go!