Corona Virus Updates Part 4

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease doctor at Toronto General Hospital says the virus can’t be contained and that we must shift to mitigation measures.

"This will not be contained, this has not been contained," said Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician at Toronto General Hospital.

Massive public health efforts have been helpful in slowing down the spread of the infection and reducing the pace and frequency of exported cases from China to the rest of the world, but containment has not worked, Bogoch said.

"This is spreading throughout the world and it will continue to spread throughout the world," he said.

The difference between containment and mitigation is explained:

Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, explained public health authorities speak of containment and of mitigation strategies when dealing with disease. Containment, he said, includes the measures taken to break the chain of transmission of the coronavirus.

Mitigation is accepting that the virus cannot be prevented from spreading and from causing COVID-19, but health officials do what they can to mitigate its impact through treatment.

"What we've been saying clearly is that containing the virus and interrupting transmission gives us an opportunity to stop the virus," Ryan said.

"To accept that mitigation is the only option is to accept that the virus cannot be stopped."

Bogoch goes on to say that it’s not realistic to think this virus can be contained:

"We're seeing global transmission of this infection."

www.cbc.ca...

originally posted by: Bicent
a reply to: pasiphae

I am not taking quarantine Off of the table. Quarantine in a sense of closing schools public facilities churches etc. it’s draconian, but there is history that shows we have done it before. This virus is starting similar to a common, cold but we have to be vigilant, it can mutate to become more lethal, let me be clear, that Is not fear mongering it is the science of a virus.

Yes, and that science also says that it can mutate to become much less lethal too. Also, from what I've read, it is more likely to become less lethal, because it is in the nature of viruses to allow the hosts to keep living, as a matter of self-preservation.

Balance, friend.

originally posted by: celltypespecific
Confirmed Cases In the US

www.nytimes.com...

Is anyone else surprised that there haven't been any cases in Las Vegas? The city has so many visitors from other countries.

originally posted by: Hecate666

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Hecate666
I just like to say that I am fed up with the prepper advice on here.

We [in our home] can't prep for long, we can't buy stuff for months on end. We are dependent on civilised people tp only buy what they need, so that everyone has food/important other stuff for as long as possible.
If you want to prep do it. I considered it but can't. So all the bloody amounts of what to buy in a self righteous panic means less food for others and their animals.

I am not even worried about this virus, not at all. Que sera sera.

What I am worried about are the people that will empty the shops because they have the money, the storage, the ability etc and then when others come and want to just buy what they can actually use, there is nothing left.

If you are so keen on prepping, do it. Why do you have to shout it out to the world?
I know why. It shows how much better you are, and how you knew all along how bad it would get whilst others just didn't believe you. But even if the others are sheeple or cynics or stupid or whatever, some people would like to go shopping and actually find some food, yes even those who were optimistic at first.

There should really be a separate thread for prepping advice so that it doesn't clog up actual updates.

I have not read much more on this thread lately, because of all the 'you must do this and get that if you want to live BS'. If you were really clever you'd keep this to yourself, so you can buy even more and live even longer than others.

You ever seen what it looks like on black friday when people are fighting to buy crap they don't even need?

Well that's how civilised it's going to be when people need food.

I'm sorry you aren't in a position to prepare, but throwing a hissy fit at everyone who can isn't changing your position, nor does it serve any purpose.

You didn't read what I wrote. Just skimmed it picking out words you like. As to the black friday behaviour of people, I am aware of it. Hence my worry. Because thanks to preppers and panic buyers this will happen much earlier than needed. Cheers.

I think 'panic buying' has been made to be a dirty word, to be shunned or laughed at. I think this is a mistake.

As you said, prepping earlier than needed. Actually this is the best thing that can happen. People buy a bit extra early on, over a longer period of time when risk of infection is minimal. The supply chain barely notices.

By delaying prep, this is what causes real panic buying later on, empty shelves etc and even violence. This is bringing people together en-masse at a time when you should be avoiding just that, with a much bigger, more sudden impact on supply chains, and now at a time when supply chains may struggle to recover. Hugely irresponsible strategy for governments to promote, just so that they can give the impression that there is no nCoV or disruption in their country, protecting the markets, not the people.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Another well said post. I have child and as if I am going to let the general public prevent me from taking care of her. My baby girl is all that I have. Quote for those with kids:

“She is all that I have, she is all that I am, she is all that I ever will be. “

originally posted by: Tracele
Up to 40 in the UK now.

Link

No mention of locations yet, up from 36 yesterday.

Devon, Herts and Kent.

I'm in Devon. Tho I think this may be Brixham which is quite a bit north. There was a suspected case there of a teacher returning from Italy.

originally posted by: Tukota

originally posted by: celltypespecific
Confirmed Cases In the US

www.nytimes.com...

Is anyone else surprised that there haven't been any cases in Las Vegas? The city has so many visitors from other countries.

Give it a couple of weeks and Las Vegas will have their share of cases.

originally posted by: fleabit
Strict quarantine can work - although probably more challenging in this day and age:

Gunnison Colorado: the town that dodged the 1918 Spanish flu virus

Sure it can - and it would devastate our economy for years, maybe longer.

The Spanish Ful was very different - much higher death rate, those at highest risk were children under 5 and healthy adults 20-40 - very, very different from this thing.

I sure an glad saner heads are prevailing, at least for now.

originally posted by: tanstaafl
So, I'm stocking up on food due to simple uncertainty. First and foremost, the main thing I'm concerned about is interruptions in supply chains. If lots of people get sick, that includes truck drivers. How do you think grocery stores get stocked?

If entire cities go on lockdown, food will be even harder to come by.

In the event that truck drivers are unable to deliver supplies and a national emergency is declared, at least in the USA, the Army National Guard will be handling deliveries, among other things.

a reply to: checkmeout

I saw a little bit of info in the fb group, it’s quite handy for more ears on the ground. Thank you

a reply to: NxNWest

They stopped small pox and that was world wide and uncontained.

originally posted by: Bishop2199
In the event that truck drivers are unable to deliver supplies and a national emergency is declared, at least in the USA, the Army National Guard will be handling deliveries, among other things.

Hopefully you're right, but... again, it is the uncertainty of the situation.

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
a reply to: ManBehindTheMask
Quarantining communities is on the table and Im willing to bet they’ve talked with CDC and VP about it. They will have set a threshold already and execute if that is hit.

Very likely, but...

Quarantining entire cities should only be considered if it turns out the death rate is much higher than it is currently - meaning, if it turns out the theories about multiple stages, with subsequent ones (to the first) being much more deadly.

It simply doesn't make sense to devastate the economy for what is essentially looking to be 'a really bad/ugly flu season'.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: NxNWest

They stopped small pox and that was world wide and uncontained.

Yes, but it took 181 years.
Edward Jenner performed the first inoculation against small pox on May 14, 1796.
The last known case of naturally occurring smallpox was in 1977.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Bought my final load of tinned goods today on my lunch break. Reckon I have a months worth of supplies plus around 1-2 weeks stuff in fridge and freezer at any given time.

People in the shop were looking at me like I was insane... its that attitude of bury your head up your a*se and it will go away in The UK, which will allow it to rapidly spread I think.

Stay safe all

The Spanish Ful was very different - much higher death rate

Actually death rate of Spanish Flu was 2.5%. And R0 was 1.4 to 2.8. The death rates are actually higher for Covid in some areas, and lower in others. The biggest difference is age group affected. There are other similarities as well. Due to the war, in an effort to keep morale high, true #s of the Spanish Flu were not provided. Sound similar to what some countries are doing now?

Also while this may not be contained, the rate of spread should be controlled if at all possible, so alleviate pressure on hospitals. The government and CDC don't seem to really be doing much at all, at this point. There are posts today of people flying in from Italy on full flights, and literally nothing is checked OR said. No checks at the airport, no warnings - just.. hope you enjoyed flying, seeya!

That is terrible lack of planning. Our government is bungling this crisis bigly.

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask
So we know there, that most likely , if they went to the hospital to get tested, the symptoms got bad enough they had to go in.......

Not necessarily. She recently returned from Iran. She probably can read, and watches the news, so maybe she just thought 'maybe I should go get tested'...

Again, this lack of details with regard to these reported cases, not knowing if they are symptomatic or not, and if so, how bad - it is infuriating, and only feeding the panic.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Fowlerstoad
a reply to: tanstaafl
If the CDC was run by true scientists and not partisan political Bureaucrats we might have stood a chance at the beginning of this.

Agreed. They maybe could have contained it like they did SARS or MERS, but it is too late for that.

Now, we hunker down, and ride it out. Hopefully I'm right and it won't be too bad for the vast majority.

And again - this doesn't mean it isn't going to be bad for some people. My Mom is in the highest risk category - she's over 80, and has had 2 heart attacks. But, she is smart, and and is listening to me, so hopefully she will be ok, and my best wishes go out to anyone in similar circumstances.

Am I wrong or were you the one making light of the situation in part one?

If I am wrong about that, I am sorry for the mistake. If not, I am happy to see you have come around and now taking things seriously. Be prepared and be safe. My mother is 85, and I worry about her too.

originally posted by: celltypespecific
OMG another DEATH in the UNITED STATES.....

Yeah....its just the flu....

THE OTHER 3 are in CRITICAL CONDITION!!!!

Link?

I had something unfortunate yet funny happen this past weekend, but kinda got me thinking.

So I go in for yet another meeting. Protocols changed. More talk of different quarantine issues with IEMA and etc. I have a notorious horrible allergy to a certain type of mold that Ive only encountered in this area ( metro East/st louis area) and nowhere else. Im from New Orleans originally and HERE is where I had my first experience with horrible allergies. I get shots and take pills and I forget them a lot. Not a pill taker, so Im bad. It was really warm and I guess it got the mold going.. or spores flying.. and I as usual forgot my pill. Right mid meeting with a room full of people who are getting pretty jumpy.. I start sneezing and coughing and draining. EYes watering, nose running everywhere, and finally after about 20 sneezes I got a nose bleed. ( I had an angioma with a bulge that ruptured about 2 yrs ago.. it was lazered but it still bleeds once in a while) I swear, you could hear the chairs scooting away from me. LOL! Ive already had the chest xray.. not the CT though.. and all. I just have my usual allergic reaction to this nefarious red hating mold. The reaction was startling ( but funny to me as I sometimes I claim its just ebola when I have a nosebleed). These are also people who are well aware of my allergy and most have known me several years... and heard me bitch and moan about it every year. Theyre also people who are getting information that isnt out there for everyone and our focus is centered on this now. It was just a reaction I havent seen.. just immediate fear I guess.

I wonder how this will evolve in the general population... seasonal colds spring colds notorious spring allergies... how will people in general react out of fear to things that arent covid but theyre so focused on it they simply assume. We already see people attacking others due to believing its a racial disease.. since they are just plainly ignorant in the most strict use of the term.