Corona Virus Updates Part 4

I keep hearing people spout this .7% CFR out of South Korea as evidence that the death rate is below 1% and this is really similar to the flu in severity. This is just so inaccurate. The Math is all wrong. People are calculating the number of resolved fatal cases "50" against the CURRENT number of confirmed cases "7313". If you calculate using these numbers. Then only .68% of Confirmed cases have died. Problem is this is a meaningless calculation.

To illustrate. If I lived in South Korea and was exposed 2 days ago by someone who then became a KNOWN positive case and because South Korea is aggressively contact tracing and testing, I get tested yesterday and test positive. I would get added to the number of CONFIRMED cases and further drop the above percentage despite having just recently contracted the virus. The issue is my illness has not resolved yet. I may Die, I may not.

Despite the uncertain incubation period (I've heard 3-5 days, up to 14 days or even 27 days) and the question of how quickly you can test positive or become contagious (I've heard possible to infect others as quickly as 5 hours after being infected yourself, but who knows.)
The bottom line is that for a case to eventually resolve to DEATH and be added to the fatality column takes some time. How long?

ourworldindata.org...

On average the disease lasts two weeks. The WHO reports that “the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks.”17

Again this is based on the 55,924 confirmed cases in China

For severe and critical cases it is 3 to 6 weeks according to the same study.

And for those who eventually died, the time from symptom onset to death ranged from 2 to 8 weeks. This is important when interpreting the case fatality rate (see below). Measures of the CFR of an ongoing outbreak do (obviously) not include deaths of patients who will eventually die, but have not died yet at the time of measurement. This means that the current CFR would be lower than the eventual CFR.

So based on this data it can 2-8 weeks for a case to resolve and be added to the fatality column and be used to calculate a CFR. So all 50 of the deaths in South Korea where actually infected 2-8 weeks ago.

Therefore to calculate the CFR in reality. You have to look at the number of Confirmed cases from 2 weeks ago at a minimum. What was that number in South Korea 2 weeks ago.

If you look at the worldometers covid-19 tally in the wayback machine from 2 weeks ago.

It was 461 confirmed cases. CFR Calculated using this number against the 50 resolved deaths is 10.8%.

Now this is not accurate because there are too many unknowns. A factor that would lower this percentage is cases that existed 2 weeks ago but were not tested and confirmed. Of which I'm sure there are many. However there are also factors that would increase this percentage. This includes
- If it can take up to 8 weeks for a case to resolve to death, there may be people who were infected 2 weeks ago who will die in the next 6 weeks. Both from the confirmed cases and the unknown infections at that time.
- There may be many people who have already died in the last 2 months from complications of Covid-19 who were never tested or confirmed to be fatalities of this virus. In fact many of these deaths may have been added to the Flu death statistics instead. To many unknowns to be dogmatic about these numbers, in fact we may never know the real numbers for certain. (especially with China destroying all their data, And why do that if in fact you have defeated the virus with your draconian measures? What are they trying to hide?)

What is certain, is that the CFR in South Korea is NOT .7%

Soul

originally posted by: SoulReaper
I keep hearing people spout this .7% CFR out of South Korea as evidence that the death rate is below 1% and this is really similar to the flu in severity. This is just so inaccurate. The Math is all wrong. People are calculating the number of resolved fatal cases "50" against the CURRENT number of confirmed cases "7313". If you calculate using these numbers. Then only .68% of Confirmed cases have died. Problem is this is a meaningless calculation.

To illustrate. If I lived in South Korea and was exposed 2 days ago by someone who then became a KNOWN positive case and because South Korea is aggressively contact tracing and testing, I get tested yesterday and test positive. I would get added to the number of CONFIRMED cases and further drop the above percentage despite having just recently contracted the virus. The issue is my illness has not resolved yet. I may Die, I may not.

Despite the uncertain incubation period (I've heard 3-5 days, up to 14 days or even 27 days) and the question of how quickly you can test positive or become contagious (I've heard possible to infect others as quickly as 5 hours after being infected yourself, but who knows.)
The bottom line is that for a case to eventually resolve to DEATH and be added to the fatality column takes some time. How long?

ourworldindata.org...

On average the disease lasts two weeks. The WHO reports that “the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks.”17

Again this is based on the 55,924 confirmed cases in China

For severe and critical cases it is 3 to 6 weeks according to the same study.

And for those who eventually died, the time from symptom onset to death ranged from 2 to 8 weeks. This is important when interpreting the case fatality rate (see below). Measures of the CFR of an ongoing outbreak do (obviously) not include deaths of patients who will eventually die, but have not died yet at the time of measurement. This means that the current CFR would be lower than the eventual CFR.

So based on this data it can 2-8 weeks for a case to resolve and be added to the fatality column and be used to calculate a CFR. So all 50 of the deaths in South Korea where actually infected 2-8 weeks ago.

Therefore to calculate the CFR in reality. You have to look at the number of Confirmed cases from 2 weeks ago at a minimum. What was that number in South Korea 2 weeks ago.

If you look at the worldometers covid-19 tally in the wayback machine from 2 weeks ago.

It was 461 confirmed cases. CFR Calculated using this number against the 50 resolved deaths is 10.8%.

Now this is not accurate because there are too many unknowns. A factor that would lower this percentage is cases that existed 2 weeks ago but were not tested and confirmed. Of which I'm sure there are many. However there are also factors that would increase this percentage. This includes
- If it can take up to 8 weeks for a case to resolve to death, there may be people who were infected 2 weeks ago who will die in the next 6 weeks. Both from the confirmed cases and the unknown infections at that time.
- There may be many people who have already died in the last 2 months from complications of Covid-19 who were never tested or confirmed to be fatalities of this virus. In fact many of these deaths may have been added to the Flu death statistics instead. To many unknowns to be dogmatic about these numbers, in fact we may never know the real numbers for certain. (especially with China destroying all their data, And why do that if in fact you have defeated the virus with your draconian measures? What are they trying to hide?)

What is certain, is that the CFR in South Korea is NOT .7%

Soul

Very important statement. Something I mentioned earlier too... you have to go back in time with deaths. You always look into the past for dead people. 👍🏻 And compare with old cases back then. Suddenly things look much worse...

This is no flu.

On a sidenote... younger people might take 6-8 weeks to really die.. old people 2-3 weeks depending on underlying health conditions.

In Italy a doctor said first they had many cases of old people in hospital... now after some weeks there is a surge of young peoples cases in his hospital.

Other factors might be stuff being depleted in hospitals after a month or two without good supply lines. In Denmark Hospitals are already complaining not getting enough masks...

originally posted by: MrRCflyingJust a quick math figure. Confirmed cases in the US have doubled every 3 days since the first of march. We stand at 400+ right now.

If it continues at that same doubling rate, we are looking at 51,000+ confirmed cases by the end of the month.

Will it continue at that rate? Don't know. It is concerning though.

JMHO: The ridiculous rate we have suddenly seen in the last few days in USA is probably just the rate of testing coming online. I expect that starting tomorrow, USA will see a huge surge in "confirmed case." And, I expect that seeing these rapidly increasing numbers, a lot of people are going to FREAK OUT. Will we be at over 5000 before Friday?

Personally, I plan on making a milk, eggs, fruit and veggies run early Monday, then lock down until the panic subsides.

Recieved a call from my daughter's school earlier. A student was interning in the hospital when a case was brought in, along with another student from another high school in our county. They're under Self quarantine and didn't have direct contact with the patient. This case was announced Friday evening, but the lady went into the hospital March 5th (was sick on Feb 28th) so risk may be low. Fun stuff.

a reply to: Anynamedangit

Mother-in-law stopped by our house today to pick up some kitchen items she let us borrow - she only has 40% lung activity from primary pulmonary Hodgkin lymphoma and already has to go to the hospital once a year or so when she gets sick with a typical cold type of bug.

There is a confirmed case in my state as of early this morning and there are over 400 people being monitored.

My own mother is also very fragile and since she got the flu 2 months ago lost a lot of weight, it's really starting to invade my regular thoughts as to what I can really do.

I've advised my family to keep extra provisions on hand and to follow strict sanitation protocol and avoid social contact and it seems like those who thought I was crazy 6-7 weeks ago realize what's at stake now.

At work my boss is asking me to "figure out how" to run our training operations remotely (hint: we can't) and the CV scare is in ever facet of my life at this point.

I'm just keeping my whits about me, hoping to mitigate the risk of contracting it as much as possible but likely will end up catching it myself, it's simple logic at this point. I also feel like my mother-in-law, own mother and most of my family and friends will likely contract it at this point. Not trying to be pessimistic but emotionally trying my best to prepare for the worst...

stay safe out there everyone

a reply to: SoulReaper

Thanks for this post, it's the first time I've really understood how the CFR rate works. I've worked it out every which way and none of them make pretty numbers.

Italy has shocked me today.. scary numbers. And then fact theyve said theyve seen a surge of younger infected patients too.

We called our parents today and asked them to be more vigilant, avoid church and shopping as much as possible (I'm in UK) I reckon 2 weeks and we will know how bad it is here

Can any one point me in the direction of a site where you can look back at historical date on cases or country. For example, how many cases did Italy have 2 weeks ago?

a reply to: SoulReaper

"What is certain, is that the CFR in South Korea is NOT .7%"

Yes, I was thinking about this the other day while drawing confidence from South Korea's figures.

One paper I was reading a while back was using a more accurate method for predicting CFR, much like you describe. You can use deaths from a given day, then use the confirmed cases from some days before. I think they settled on 10 days in the paper. How you arrive at this number of days requires research with many variables.

South Korea, picking up cases very early might mean you need to use confirmed cases from longer ago than 10 days for example. But using deaths from the 6th, and confirmed cases from 10 days prior, the CFR for South Korea is 4.3%

I only did this very roughly, but it is food for thought.

originally posted by: FamCore
a reply to: Anynamedangit

Mother-in-law stopped by our house today to pick up some kitchen items she let us borrow - she only has 40% lung activity from primary pulmonary Hodgkin lymphoma and already has to go to the hospital once a year or so when she gets sick with a typical cold type of bug.

There is a confirmed case in my state as of early this morning and there are over 400 people being monitored.

My own mother is also very fragile and since she got the flu 2 months ago lost a lot of weight, it's really starting to invade my regular thoughts as to what I can really do.

I've advised my family to keep extra provisions on hand and to follow strict sanitation protocol and avoid social contact and it seems like those who thought I was crazy 6-7 weeks ago realize what's at stake now.

At work my boss is asking me to "figure out how" to run our training operations remotely (hint: we can't) and the CV scare is in ever facet of my life at this point.

I'm just keeping my whits about me, hoping to mitigate the risk of contracting it as much as possible but likely will end up catching it myself, it's simple logic at this point. I also feel like my mother-in-law, own mother and most of my family and friends will likely contract it at this point. Not trying to be pessimistic but emotionally trying my best to prepare for the worst...

stay safe out there everyone

This is exactly why people are ignorant when they say stay calm or act like it’s no big deal.

Most people have someone older who they care about a lot who will have a very serious chance of dying or they get the Coronavirus .

originally posted by: BowBells
a reply to: SoulReaper

Can any one point me in the direction of a site where you can look back at historical date on cases or country. For example, how many cases did Italy have 2 weeks ago?

Here are 3 spreadsheets, confirmed, deaths and recovered. Click to see tabulated data used on the Johns Hopkins charts. Copy and paste into a spreadsheet for easier viewing.

Spreadsheets:
github.com...

originally posted by: BowBells
Can any one point me in the direction of a site where you can look back at historical date on cases or country. For example, how many cases did Italy have 2 weeks ago?

I use BNO, just scroll to the bottom and you can see all the previous timelines - fyi Italy reported it's first case January 30th I believe..

BNO

a reply to: AgentAnderson

Pretty sure the banks won't be able to do anything about it if everyone were unable to pay back this magical money that appeared from nowhere.... in fact, we can all say 'it came from nowhere in th e first place, all you did was tap some digits on your keypads and shazzam, the cash was in my bank account'

If these banks don't put out a statement saying that we don't need to pay back mortgages until this thing is over, I can see riots ensuing and banks being burned TBH.

Anyway, the banking system will collapse, just like other businesses... isnt that a good thing?

We can find some other way to live

a reply to: FamCore

Oh dear!!! I hope your ladies stay well! I have the same fears about my 88yr old mother and 85yr old father in law. She's pretty scared of everything, thankfully, and has been staying home for a month now. Even a normal flu really puts her down.

My father in law on the other hand, is on dialysis and has diabetes and heart problems, he's out running around town visiting and shopping. As cruel as it sounds he's on his last leg so the only way I'll give him a hard time is if things shut down and we worry about food supply. I'd be more scared about someone breaking in on him as he lives alone, so i will bring him here, kicking and screaming.

It's here, in my small town.... the patient hasn't traveled, so it's obviously loose!

You stay safe too!!!!

Personally I think COVID was spread by a third party, as TD claimed. The bioweapon blame game seems to be escalating.

China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US?

Japan, China and Taiwan Reports on the Origin of the Virus

Then, Taiwan ran a TV news program on February,27,(click here to access video (Chinese), that presented diagrams and flow charts suggesting the coronavirus originated in the US.

The basic logic is that the geographical location with the greatest diversity of virus strains must be the original source because a single strain cannot emerge from nothing. He demonstrated that only the US has all the five known strains of the virus (while Wuhan and most of China have only one, as do Taiwan and South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam, Singapore, and England, Belgium and Germany), constituting a thesis that the haplotypes in other nations may have originated in the US.

www.globalresearch.ca...

a reply to: primalfractal
Possibly. I could imagine a third party or whom ever sinister putting out two or three similar strands but one being the real bioweapon. The other one or two flu viruses would be a cover and hide the actual source and of the real one making it almost impossible physically and financially to track and trace to contain it. Maybe why we are seeing certain areas with more fatalities than other places, and why we are seeing huge quarantined areas. China, Italy, Iran mainly.

a reply to: Tukota

Oh that isn't great. Back when Miami Oxford had Ohio's first suspected cases multiple local outlets were reporting that there were a dozen students at Oxford from Wuhan as well as another dozen at each of the satellite cases in Hamilton and Middletown. I also read around that time that most universities in Ohio has several thousand students from the affected countries totalling over 200,000 in Ohio alone. I've heard a lot of rumors about schools like MUO and OU that are out in the sticks but still really sick but nothing verifiable.

The Worldometers site says the U.S. has increased by 65 cases today and two more deaths, but I haven't heard or seen any updates about any of this. We're over 500 cases now in the U.S.

www.worldometers.info...

I also use this map to try to see which state had the increases.

www.nytimes.com...

Updates from Canada - 64 cases

Things became very real and personal for me.

My best friend (whom I have essentially known since birth - 48 years) was visiting this weekend. She was called back to her base and this morning left for CFB Trenton to take in the Canadians aboard the Grand Princess cruise ship (Canada is repatriating them as was just announced). She and I were in the military together, she is still in. My son and daughter-in-law are also military. My friend was apprehensive but obviously understands her duty.

My fiancé’s brother is in hospital and we visited him today, very aware of the environment and cleaning our hands like crazy. Worried about his exposure there.

We have employees in self-isolation and a college who booked a cruise in the midst of all of this. It makes me crazy that people are still getting on cruise ships and then people like my friend have to expose themselves to help them (my complaint, not hers).

We have a care home in B.C. with infected and the provincial health officer emotional talking about it, because she knows the potential impact to those residents.

People sick getting on public transit with symptoms, with no regard for others and they later test positive.

We live in such an incredibly selfish time.

I am thankful for folks like you sharing information, insight and theories. I went back and read some of the earliest posts on the first part of this thread. Amazing how we have all been calling this.

Stay safe all.

www.cbc.ca...

globalnews.ca...

a reply to: SoulReaper

Thanks for posting that. I think even a CFR of .7% is more than the US can handle... still 10x higher than the flu. I've been thinking more about it and the fast paced testing has likely skewed the numbers... for now. In another 2/3 weeks their deaths are going to drastically climb. If EVERYONE is tested it paints a totally different picture compared to the rest of the countries only testing people who are showing some symptoms. Every day that goes by... it just keeps getting more grim.

3rd death just reported, UK

Link

originally posted by: NxNWest

.....

We live in such an incredibly selfish time.

I am thankful for folks like you sharing information, insight and theories. I went back and read some of the earliest posts on the first part of this thread. Amazing how we have all been calling this.

Stay safe all.

www.cbc.ca...

globalnews.ca...

You got that right. INCREDIBLY selfish times. The majority of humans are very selfish and I'm not sure it's a new thing... there's just a lot more humans now.