Corona Virus Updates Part 4

originally posted by: Chance321
a reply to: elitegamer23

Did it just now, and got a red banner at the top with a SOS.

I like the way you capitalise the 'C' even for a google search. Class.

Share prices in Japan dropped by 570 points. Not sure what that really means. Update coming later. Stay tune. Mostly about the downturn in the economy here.

originally posted by: generik
well this is troubling. 2 new cases in the Philippines today. which puts the number of known cases at 5. the first three of which one died feb1, one went back to China (after testing negative, then testing positive later), on Jan 31. and one that got better, discharged feb 8.

what is troubling is those three cases ended a whole month ago, back when the whole thing started. and other than those brought back from China, and off the cruise ship. and are quarantined at the SEA games facilities, in what was Clark base, there have been no other known cases until now. and now we have TWO cases popping up. one of which the person has not done any traveling outside of the country. and is thus considered a local transmission from somewhere.

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, March 6) — A Filipino who has not traveled out of the country recently has tested positive for the coronavirus, health officials said on Friday. There are two new cases of coronavirus disease or COVID-19 in the country.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the 62-year-old Filipino man who contracted the disease has no known travel to any country with confirmed coronavirus cases, but he regularly visited a Muslim prayer hall in Barangay Greenhills, San Juan City.

"It can be considered as a local case... The absence of travel is a clear indication that this is a local case," he said in a media briefing.

www.cnnphilippines.com...

with this case the person started coughing on feb 25, went in for treatment on Mar1. now here is the thing. i don't recall any of the three original cases being from Greenhills. and they haven't given a specific location for the other new patient, so it would seem he was not in that area. so just where did this person pick it up? are there other people running around with it? or since the mall there has a big flea market type market (lots of fake Chinese goods), did it by chance come in through products brought in from China?

also of concern to me personally, is Greenhills is one of the malls i sometimes go to, being quite close to where i live (also where the hostage taking was a couple days ago). this means it is a little close to home as it were.

the other new case is a person who returned from Tokyo on feb 25, (the same day the other patient started coughing, so that just makes it even more unlikely the two cases are connected). and started having chills and fever on Mar 3, and tested positive yesterday.

Meanwhile, the second new case of COVID-19 in the country is a 48-year-old Filipino man who visited Tokyo, Japan. Duque said he returned to the Philippines on February 25 and started having chills and fever on March 3. He was tested positive on March 5. Duque said he is in stable condition.

The two patients are residents of Metro Manila and are both confined at the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine (RITM).

The DOH is tracking down the people the two Filipinos came in contact with.

"Samples have already been collected from close contacts. DOH is also in close coordination with the concerned local government units for concerted action on identifying persons who had interaction with the confirmed cases," Duque said.

What happened to the Philippine crew on the Diamond Princess. I thought there were some infected and they were cooks also.

First introduced in 2017, Google's SOS alerts are meant for critical events which may involve public safety. These ad-free curated search result pages are designed to offer accurate and useful resources to people during the times of a public health emergency.

ndtv

Meh. Sounds like Google is trying to make itself seem important.

Cheers

Observation of new virus at home, etc. in Beijing to 820,000. Wow! and this is if we are to believe it. Beijing officials have revealed that 870,000 people, including those returning to Beijing from their homecoming, are currently being monitored at home and elsewhere.
It also calls on those arriving in Beijing from Japan and Korea, and from Iran and Italy, regardless of nationality, to be similarly quarantined at home and intensively monitored at designated hotels. I believe on March 9 here in Japan, the same is to happen. Should have an update on this later this evening.

Finally found what I believe is a good CFR tracker.

It's currently at 14.14% with this estimate.

They say they have a Kaplan-Meier estimate coming soon that should be even more accurate.

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

​NOTE - As the epidemic has spread, several countries with have reached the limits of their testing capabilities. In the US, the CDC shipped faulty test kits to the states; Italy will now only test "at-risk people showing symptoms of COVID-19"; And France has retained strict limits on who can be tested. Because of this restriction in testing, severe cases are more likely to be discovered, and recoveries missed skewing the CFR higher.
 
Therefore, I have briefly paused calculations while I consider how to further restrict the dataset.
​
There are several different methodologies for calculating the CFR of an emerging epidemic. However, all of the calculations I make here are based on cases from countries who scored at least 50 out of 100 on the 2019 Global Health Security Index's measure of their ability to detect and report emerging epidemics. This excludes data from mainland China and Iran along with many other countries. Although this excludes a significant amount of cases, it is arguably more accurate given that Chinese data is particularly unreliable  and the the Iranian healthcare system is almost certainly missing recovered cases. This exclusion also allows us to factor in a greater proportion of mild and asymptomatic cases that the nations with highly ranked health surveillance are best able to detect. This keeps the CFR from being skewed higher.

Methodologies

In Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease several methodologies are for calcualting the CFR of an emerging outbreak are we are currently experiencing.

​They found that two methods were the most reliable and accurate.

The resolved cases method (simple estimate 2 in the paper) with the formula e2(s)=D(s)/[D(s)+R(s)] where, D(s) and R(s) denote the cumulative number of deaths and recoveries.

And the Kaplan-Meier method

​I want to made a quick note about a flawed methodoly that should not be relied on  - particuarly for this novel coronavirus. The so-called Naïve CFR (simple estimate 1 from Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease). Not only does our original study show that it can grossly underestimates the CFR while an outbreak is ongoing - a recent study specifically on the current novel coronavirus warns:
​
The time from the illness onset to death is also comparable to SARS [15], and the 15–20-day mean delay indicates that a crude estimation of the ratio of the cumulative number of deaths to that of confirmed cases will tend to result in an underestimation of the case fatality risk, especially during the early stage of epidemic spread. [emphasis added]
​
Current Estimates

​Using the resolved cases methold:
​
14.14%(13.42%- 14.86% Confidence Interval: 95%) Current as of 2/29/20 6:00am EST
​
Using the Kaplan-Meier method:
​
*Estimate using this methodolgy coming soon.
​
​The R-nought (R0)

​The R0 esimtate is the weighted average from collected pre-print studies (studies with calculations based on newer data are weighted higher).More details is provided in the Sources and Calculations section further down on the page.
 
Current Estimate:
​
R0: 3.85(Lowest range from study R2, Highest Range R6.6)  Current as of 2/29/20 6:00am EST
​
​
www.cassandracapital.net...

edit on 6-3-2020 by primalfractal because: (no reason given)

edit on 6-3-2020 by primalfractal because: (no reason given)

strange events happening in North Italy (trying to find where)

apparently, wine was released into the water supply

www.9news.com.au...



northern italy is where the quarantined towns are

originally posted by: primalfractal
Finally found what I believe is a good CFR tracker.

It's currently at 14.4% with this estimate.

If this math holds up over time, I think I'm convinced what Tennisdawg was warning us about: 15% CFR & multiple waves of illness that progressively worsen each time.

Not so good. Hope we're wrong.

DOW Jones futures down 500pts after yesterdays 950 point trop

concerning if there isn't a rebound today, as is expected.

Oil is down 5% and Europe is getting smashed again..

News from DK
PM says:
No "get together" over 1000 people.
No handshakes.
No Kiss.
No hug.
If possible, do not use public transport during rush hour.
Use hand disinfection.
Sneeze and cough in paper.

But most importantly, she said:
It will get worse.

Nb:
We are approx. 5,000,000 in Denmark + 20 infected approx. 300 in quarantine.

Nbb:
No spectator for football matches, no concerts etc.

Nbbb:
Still no prepping here in the DK, face masks sold out, but still available in the form of half masks with interchangeable filters.

Source: www.dr.dk...

Just getting up for the morning. Can anyone give me a quick update? It looks like deaths in the US are up to 14, so that is 3 since yesterday, correct? Death rate in the US seems higher percentage wise. Something about an R0 of 14???? 840,000 in China and growing again?

What the fudge??? My brain is still foggy, I can't wrap my head around it this morning.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

I'm guessing that vid is faked

officially over 100k cases now worldwide


Coronavirus Cases:
100,242

Deaths:
3,408

Recovered:
55,812

-------------------------------------------------------

Iran's numbers are in for the day, up by 1,234. Spain have another 63, Belgium 59, Mayalsia 28

www.worldometers.com

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

First introduced in 2017, Google's SOS alerts are meant for critical events which may involve public safety. These ad-free curated search result pages are designed to offer accurate and useful resources to people during the times of a public health emergency.

ndtv

Meh. Sounds like Google is trying to make itself seem important.

Cheers

I’d wager google is an important tool for people like us trying to understand what’s happening across the world right now .

a reply to: elitegamer23

Umm. Off-topic, but other search engines exist, and they don't appear to be trying to self-promote re: coronavirus. So, yeah, "meh". Your opinion may be different.

Cheers

a reply to: burdman30ott6

British news and government keep spouting off about it being less than 1%.. not sure where or how they're working that out?!

I'm sure most of us Brits had this text text on their phones?

Please? Hopefully?

Dear Patient. You will be aware of the outbreak of Coronavirus. Please use the link www.nhs.uk... to read updated information on the UK situation. Please DO NOT visit the surgery. Use NHS 111 Online Service if you have any concerns.

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777


well, sorry to say this but you are a bit of a silly fool and only have yourself to blame. If you can't save any cash from your job weekly, then you are either in a very low paying job and need to get out or are just too stupid to think about the future... even if it's just a few years into the future!

NOTE to mods: I'm not name calling here, just being grown up and telling it how it is.

Thank god we have people like you here to put others straight and.... tell it how it is.
I'm sure he'll take the label of "too stupid" on board and make the necessary changes to achieve your expectations.

originally posted by: lostgirl
a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

Hi, Have they been talking about whether they will close Disneyland Paris?

Do you think they are being pressured 'not' to close?

Just getting back to the thread
Lots to read yet (on p197).

I don't think they are being pressured to stay open, no.
Technically, any gathering of more than 5000 people is no longer allowed, so it might get around it by them not all being in one place.
They might close themselves for a short while due to lack of customers.
Would give them time to work on the rides etc...

I don't see a huge amount of people going now though, looks like stuff is going very fast today, numbers may be doubled or more in France...

They are finding new hotspots/ clusters of outbreaks.

originally posted by: Agit8dChop

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777

Holy See

Ok, Holy See isn't a Country, it's situated within the Vatican City which is a separate state to the rest of Italy.

Any updates on the Pope? been in public lately? might do some searching..

The Vatican says the Pope tested negative for the virus. Yeah, well, let's see how many tests they do on him.

I'm not convinced yet...