Corona Virus Updates Part 3

a reply to: GlobalGold

/facepalm

I think you're right. The second was the original, older designation before they split it into virus and disease.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Adphil28
Oh, on the flu testing, I meant that if someone presents to the doctor with flu-like symptoms such that they test them for the flu and that test comes back negative (and it's a very fast test; they did one on my kiddo last year when he had flu A), they will automatically test for corona virus to screen for it.

So, makes me also wonder, what happens if someone contracts both the flu and this thing? Maybe that accounts for at least some of the serious cases?

Just posting this which is a weekly tracker of UK flu like illnesses. Interestingly it is a weekly tracker but I can't see that it's been updated since end of Jan. Up to that point GP consultations were falling for such illnesses. For non UK readers, a GP would generally not test for flu. Just give you general advice. It is only those with more severe illness who would go to hospital and then be tested (my experience anyway). I was interested to know if there had been a spike of flu (which might not have been actual flu) but there are no figures for last 2 weeks. Unless I'm being dim

www.gov.uk...

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: liejunkie01
I'm going to guess the massive damage to the lungs was seen in patients who had died.

And/or the damage was already there (from the terrible air pollution the chinese have to try to survive in on a daily basis).

originally posted by: TheIrvy2
a reply to: tanstaafl
Except that those figures you're basing everything on are widely considered to be propaganda

Ummm... no, that would be the numbers coming from the CCP.

... covering up the true extent of a disease that may have an undetectable first stage and may have been brewing in the population for much longer than we're being told.

You are free to believe that. It seems apparent to me that here, in the rest of the world that is not controlled by the iron fist of the CCP, it would be much, much more difficult to completely cover huge numbers of infected and dead/dying than it is in China.

But of course, you are free to believe what you want.

a reply to: checkmeout

Not sure about spikes in specify countries but this year influenza type A strain ( usually the worse of the primary strains) seems to have been predominant

Flu types :
www.medicalnewstoday.com...

originally posted by: confiden
a reply to: tanstaafl

Those are only the cases we have found. Surely you understand that we cannot test everyone in the world every day to know the exact numbers. You have to use your judgement if that many were found in the population of X million, how many were asymptomatic never tested, had a false-positive result and not retested or misdiagnosed as flu.

I honestly don't care if there are people who have it but never know it.

What I care about is how many people who get it develop serious conditions, and how many die.

And the fact that we do not have a large jump in serious complications from flu/pneumonia, means that we don't currently have a massive outbreak of a deadly (to many people) virus occurring.

SARS-CoV-2 *NOT* genetically engineered. This paper was popped up about three hours ago, and argues through genetic analysis that wherever this thing came from, it was not created intentionally, but occurred naturally.

They conclude that the binder specific to ACE2 may be efficient to human and human-like ACE2, but it would also target several other species like cats and pigs among others.

They say that the virus does not show the hallmarks of what a predicted engineered virus of that type would have. The processes available to reverse engineer it have not been used. It doesn't have the viral backbone of an engineered virus of that type.

One of the possible theories they explore is that this thing did jump out of animals but did so over time and no one noticed. Basically, it jumped out an animal to person here or there, possibly that person passed it on to another one or two people, and over time it acquired mutations through all those previous short chains.

Estimates of the timing of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of SARS-CoV-2 using currently available genome sequence data point to virus emergence in late November to early December 201920,21, compatible with the earliest retrospectively confirmed cases22. Hence, this scenario presumes a period of unrecognised transmission in humans between the initial zoonotic transfer event and the acquisition of the polybasic cleavage site. Sufficient opportunity could occur if there had been many prior zoonotic events producing short chains of human-to-human transmission (so-called ‘stuttering chains’) over an extended period. This is essentially the situation for MERS-CoV in the Arabian Peninsula where all the human cases are the result of repeated jumps of the virus from dromedary camels, producing single infections or short chains of transmission that eventually resolve. To date, after 2,499 cases over 8 years, no human adaptation has emerged that has allowed MERS-CoV to take hold in the human population.

Apparently, this is something we may need to watch for with MERS.

In other words, it's possible this thing had been there for some time at very low levels but only recently finally got its missing genetic ducks in a row so to speak. They call that cryptic spread.

They also do not rule out selection during passage which does bring the laboratory back into focus, but not as an engineered virus, merely as a studied strain of disease. However, they say that one of the features of the disease argues against this scenario because that feature has only arisen in a passage event once in an avian virus, and in order to see this in this virus, it would have had to have been an intensive, long-term program of passage through animal culture with the right kind of ACE2 (like cats or ferrets, not bats). Not to mention, they say the receptor in question has to involve a living immune system, not just cell culture.

So there we are ... this paper argues against genetic engineering although not conclusively against a lab escape.

originally posted by: RamsesOzymandias
"originally posted by: tanstaafl
Are there any indications that this thing can/will kill those that are otherwise healthy with reasonably strong immune systems?"

HIVCOVID-20 sounds good.

Reply to the wrong post?

a reply to: tanstaafl

game over!

And another study leaning towards natural origin of the virus

virological.org...

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl
"If only those who have compromised immune systems and/or are otherwise at risk (elderly, infants, etc) - which appears to be the case -"

Can you cite your source for this?

The total lack of any evidence to the contrary?

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
"originally posted by: tanstaafl
... if your argument is that there are lots of cases not yet confirmed - where are the huge spikes in numbers of reported serious illnesses from 'flu' or pneumonia or anything related?"

For that you will want to watch data for Flu-Like Illnesses.

Here's data for Illinois.

That's IF they were to go down as flu-like rather than something else.

source:
dph.illinois.gov...

Ok, good, thanks, thats what I was looking for, but...

Is there a CDC page that contains this info, up to date and/or updated regularly, with nationwide numbers?

That is what we need to even have a clue what is happening (assuming you trust those numbers too)...

originally posted by: TheIrvy2
a reply to: tanstaafl

Add nebulizing magnesium sulphate to your Google list

Interesting, thanks, wasn't aware of it... looks like it would be an effective adjunctive therapy.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: St Udio

nCoV19 = the virus
Covid19 = the disease caused by the virus

It's like HIV and AIDS. HIV is the virus, and AIDS is the disease.

so, if I follow your line of explanation:



coronavirus = the Strain (which includes the Flu)

nCoV19 = the virus

Covid19 = the disease caused by the virus


tell me/us just what 'test kits' are being used for these 3 different levels of sickness...

or are Flu symptoms only observed in the milder attacks----But the Acute Pneumonia Symptoms appear only in the more robust COVID19 attacks...
and specific 'test kits' are used only when symptoms are apparent

thus a 'coronavirus test' exists for an open ended population
but a WuFlu 'test kit' is for those who appear to be headed towards the Fatal COVID19 Pneumonia-Respiratory-disease

and the 2 or 3 different 'test-kits' are interchangeable and accurate or are we getting garbage-data from 'test-kits' that are not designed well enough to identify the exact illness invading the victim ?

excuse my spelling liberties

originally posted by: checkmeout
Just posting this which is a weekly tracker of UK flu like illnesses. Interestingly it is a weekly tracker but I can't see that it's been updated since end of Jan. Up to that point GP consultations were falling for such illnesses. For non UK readers, a GP would generally not test for flu. Just give you general advice. It is only those with more severe illness who would go to hospital and then be tested (my experience anyway). I was interested to know if there had been a spike of flu (which might not have been actual flu) but there are no figures for last 2 weeks. Unless I'm being dim

www.gov.uk...

Here ya go

https
://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/865622/
Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_7_2020.pdf

Ok something is wrong with this forum handling URLs
Even tried it with /URL commands... nada not functioning


Not even working inserting a space inbetween

originally posted by: ketsuko
SARS-CoV-2 *NOT* genetically engineered. This paper was popped up about three hours ago, and argues through genetic analysis that wherever this thing came from, it was not created intentionally, but occurred naturally.

They conclude that the binder specific to ACE2 may be efficient to human and human-like ACE2, but it would also target several other species like cats and pigs among others.

They say that the virus does not show the hallmarks of what a predicted engineered virus of that type would have. The processes available to reverse engineer it have not been used. It doesn't have the viral backbone of an engineered virus of that type.

One of the possible theories they explore is that this thing did jump out of animals but did so over time and no one noticed. Basically, it jumped out an animal to person here or there, possibly that person passed it on to another one or two people, and over time it acquired mutations through all those previous short chains.

Estimates of the timing of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of SARS-CoV-2 using currently available genome sequence data point to virus emergence in late November to early December 201920,21, compatible with the earliest retrospectively confirmed cases22. Hence, this scenario presumes a period of unrecognised transmission in humans between the initial zoonotic transfer event and the acquisition of the polybasic cleavage site. Sufficient opportunity could occur if there had been many prior zoonotic events producing short chains of human-to-human transmission (so-called ‘stuttering chains’) over an extended period. This is essentially the situation for MERS-CoV in the Arabian Peninsula where all the human cases are the result of repeated jumps of the virus from dromedary camels, producing single infections or short chains of transmission that eventually resolve. To date, after 2,499 cases over 8 years, no human adaptation has emerged that has allowed MERS-CoV to take hold in the human population.

Apparently, this is something we may need to watch for with MERS.

In other words, it's possible this thing had been there for some time at very low levels but only recently finally got its missing genetic ducks in a row so to speak. They call that cryptic spread.

They also do not rule out selection during passage which does bring the laboratory back into focus, but not as an engineered virus, merely as a studied strain of disease. However, they say that one of the features of the disease argues against this scenario because that feature has only arisen in a passage event once in an avian virus, and in order to see this in this virus, it would have had to have been an intensive, long-term program of passage through animal culture with the right kind of ACE2 (like cats or ferrets, not bats). Not to mention, they say the receptor in question has to involve a living immune system, not just cell culture.

So there we are ... this paper argues against genetic engineering although not conclusively against a lab escape.

was it peer-reviewed?

if not, it is all bat guano.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Its Time for the federal government and states along with congress to tell the truth about the cases in the US. The truth is going to come out. Come on government and President Trump keep us informed on the situation. I don't want USA to look like China lying to the people. If you want our support tell us the truth and we will get behind our country.

a reply to: St Udio

pretty sure you only look for 1

a reply to: St Udio

Influenza is its own thing, a separate set of viral diseases altogether. That flu shot they want us to get every year is based on two or three strains they think will be circulating. All of them are influenza viruses though.

The three most common seasonal viruses are influenze, rhinovirus, and certain strains of corona virus (just not ever this one). Most produce the usual, relatively mild coughs and sniffles.

Every so often, one of them has a distant relative that mutates to infect humans where it normally only infects animals of one kind or another. When that happens, it is labeled a novel strain. Novel strains can cause everything from very mild illness to deadly illness.

What makes them dangerous is that our immune systems have never encountered them before and react accordingly. Between getting hit with a bad illness and getting our immune system freaked out, very, very bad things happen to our bodies. Everyone one is at risk, even otherwise young and healthy people because your own immune system can kill you trying to save you.

The other problem is that because no one has had any prior exposure to the strain in question to confer even partial immunity to it, everyone who is going to sick will get sick all at once. They produce large outbreaks that can disrupt society while everyone is flat on their butts sick. Medical infrastructure can get easily overwhelmed making it harder to provide the necessary care to those who get critically ill, so more end up dying than needed to, and everyone who will die will do so all at once, again overwhelming the morgues and funeral homes.

Society can be seriously strained and there will be disruption of function during the height of such an outbreak, even though most people will likely end up surviving in the end.