Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: tarifa37
I wonder does anyone else think it's slightly strange that the "super spreader "in the UK first went to Singapore and then on to France where he infected 4 people in a ski chalet but they are reporting that he contracted the virus in Singapore ? What are the odds of that? There are only 45 cases currently in Singapore and this guy just happens to contract the coronavirus from one of these 45.. keep in mind there are over 5 million people living in Singapore.. those are some very long odds indeed. My thoughts are if he contracted this in Singapore there must be many many more than 45 cases there.

could not agree more

Another gp surgery closed today because of coronavirus scare in brackley Northamptonshire

chochilino.com...

1st was in brighton due to a staff member testing positive for coronavirus

www.bbc.com...

Also a school in Southampton closed and evacuated today over coronavirus fears

www.dailyecho.co.uk...

a reply to: tarifa37

Ding Ding Ding ... think your assumption about Singapore is on target.

Cheers

2 More cases in Singapore including a Certis officer who served quarantine orders to Wuhan individuals. I'm assuming that doesn't involve much physical contact?? That's 45 cases. 7 discharged but 7 in ICU. Not a good batting average I don't think cos once those ICU beds are full.....
www.straitstimes.com...

BA cancelling flight to Beijing and Shanghai until 31st March!!
Think we are in for the long haul....pun intended....
Sorry if this has already been posted!
British Airways
Rainbows
Jane

I heard or read a theory that this thing will end up being proven more dangerous as its killing people slower than something than that

a reply to: toysforadults

I never know whether you're being serious!

Must say, id be concerned if I'd been treated at that surgery in the past week or 2 though

originally posted by: tarifa37
I wonder does anyone else think it's slightly strange that the "super spreader "in the UK first went to Singapore and then on to France where he infected 4 people in a ski chalet but they are reporting that he contracted the virus in Singapore ? What are the odds of that? There are only 45 cases currently in Singapore and this guy just happens to contract the coronavirus from one of these 45.. keep in mind there are over 5 million people living in Singapore.. those are some very long odds indeed. My thoughts are if he contracted this in Singapore there must be many many more than 45 cases there.

Also consider that when he visited Singapore (was it January 21-23?) there were probably even fewer confirmed cases there.
They have no idea how bad it might be, especially if the incubation period can be as long as 24 days.

originally posted by: tarifa37
I wonder does anyone else think it's slightly strange that the "super spreader "in the UK first went to Singapore and then on to France where he infected 4 people in a ski chalet but they are reporting that he contracted the virus in Singapore ? What are the odds of that? There are only 45 cases currently in Singapore and this guy just happens to contract the coronavirus from one of these 45.. keep in mind there are over 5 million people living in Singapore.. those are some very long odds indeed. My thoughts are if he contracted this in Singapore there must be many many more than 45 cases there.

Said exactly this earlier in the thread. The odds of catching it from one of the 45 known cases is infinitesimally small. Only conclusions you can really reach is he was either hyper unlucky or else the virus is far more widespread. I know what my thinking is.

Oh and then he travels on a number of planes from a number of airports. Marvellous. How is it that we can see this coming, but those in charge never do?

originally posted by: toysforadults
I heard or read a theory that this thing will end up being proven more dangerous as its killing people slower than something than that

I think the further along the pandemic goes, the high the death rate will go.
You can build new hospitals all over the place, but you can't build new doctors, nurses and other specialized support staff.

I want to bring everyone back to one thing that was reported a few days ago and posted in this thread. A South Korean woman who returned from Thailand was confirmed infected with the virus. Nowhere in her recent travel history did she enter any part of China. Here's the thing though, the date she returned from Thailand, was the 19th of January. She first reported symptoms on the 25th or 26th if I remember correctly. Now think about the time window here. This woman caught the virus in Thailand, BEFORE the 19th of January. On that date this thing was only getting properly started in China, and there were ZERO cases in Thailand. In fact, Thailand didn't even know about the virus at that time and not a single person showed up with such symptoms to be tested. How can it be then, this woman got infected in that time window?

The only logical conclusion that I can draw is the time window we have for this virus is just plain WRONG. I fully believe this thing is a much, much slower burn than anyone is aware of. I'm talking months, not weeks. And that is why we need to put our human tendency for recency bias down a bit and keep our eyes on the progression of things from a perspective of lag time. And as far as that lag is concerned there is ample evidence that it os definately there. To what degree we will not know. I am looking at about first week of March for things to become clearer. If this thing is as slow as I think it is, then it's the most perfect slayer of mankind that we've had in decades.

a reply to: Foxtree

Yea I think that’s why it was upgraded to imminent and serious “ threat this morning, think they know what’s about to happen

originally posted by: tarifa37
I wonder does anyone else think it's slightly strange that the "super spreader "in the UK first went to Singapore and then on to France where he infected 4 people in a ski chalet but they are reporting that he contracted the virus in Singapore ? What are the odds of that? There are only 45 cases currently in Singapore and this guy just happens to contract the coronavirus from one of these 45.. keep in mind there are over 5 million people living in Singapore.. those are some very long odds indeed. My thoughts are if he contracted this in Singapore there must be many many more than 45 cases there.

Didn't he also infect a family in Spain?

Yes very odd, especially when you consider there were only 3 confirmed cases in Singapore on the 24th when he left there.

I've been working (very roughly) on the basis that there are more than 5 times the amount of confirmed cases actually infected (because the others are so mild or asymptomatic they don't notice or get tested). Plus two weeks worth of exponential growth for those that are infected but won't show in the numbers yet (lag). Plus another day or two's worth growth from lag due to time to get test results.

But still, even with all that (which would be at least 90 cases at that time), astronomical odds of bumping into an infected.

a reply to: ARM1968

I agree but this whole case is very strange ,what also are the odds of the village in France where they caught the virus off him being called LES CONTAMINES the contaminated ? You literally couldn't make it up. If someone wrote this as a fiction novel people would say it was too unbelievable.

originally posted by: tarifa37
a reply to: ARM1968

I agree but this whole case is very strange ,what also are the odds of the village in France where they caught the virus off him being called LES CONTAMINES the contaminated ? You literally couldn't make it up. If someone wrote this as a fiction novel people would say it was too unbelievable.

LMAO that's an uncanny coincidence, they're gonna make a film about it in 5 years just like Contagion, but for real this time.
Les Contamines haha

The odds are pretty much the same as winning the lottery (jackpot)

a reply to: ARM1968

Remember. The 201 exercise's recommendations explicitly call for continued travel and trade after an outbreak occurs.

Zero common sense being exercised by those in charge.

Cheers

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: BowBells

is it just me or is this thing contagious as all hell

WHO or China won’t admit that. Someone else will have to do the work.

originally posted by: toysforadults
I heard or read a theory that this thing will end up being proven more dangerous as its killing people slower than something than that

Yes because it will clog beds. People will die from the inability to get simple treatments for anything, let alone for those infected with the virus.

a reply to: tarifa37

What are the odds, that in 1981, novelist Dean Koontz wrote a book about a bio-weapon released around the end of the year, and developed in a laboratory in WUHAN ? Title of the book is "The Eyes of Darkness".

Synchronicity, and how.

Cheers

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: tarifa37
I wonder does anyone else think it's slightly strange that the "super spreader "in the UK first went to Singapore and then on to France where he infected 4 people in a ski chalet but they are reporting that he contracted the virus in Singapore ? What are the odds of that? There are only 45 cases currently in Singapore and this guy just happens to contract the coronavirus from one of these 45.. keep in mind there are over 5 million people living in Singapore.. those are some very long odds indeed. My thoughts are if he contracted this in Singapore there must be many many more than 45 cases there.

Didn't he also infect a family in Spain?

Yes very odd, especially when you consider there were only 3 confirmed cases in Singapore on the 24th when he left there.

I've been working (very roughly) on the basis that there are more than 5 times the amount of confirmed cases actually infected (because the others are so mild or asymptomatic they don't notice or get tested). Plus two weeks worth of exponential growth for those that are infected but won't show in the numbers yet (lag). Plus another day or two's worth growth from lag due to time to get test results.

But still, even with all that (which would be about 90 cases at that time), astronomical odds of bumping into an infected.

So if that is the case we are talking odds of approximately 16 million to 1 that he would contract the virus, and in reality the odds would be much longer than that because he'd have to be in the right area and very near the infected person as well. So virtually impossible. I'm definitely not buying these infected figures that's for sure.