Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: primalfractal
a reply to: drussell41

Thanks

Yea fires, coronaplague, and now it's actually flooding here, I'm waiting for the locusts next

There is actually currently a Locust situation unfolding in Africa:
www.thenational.ae...

originally posted by: BowBells
I have a question about the R-0 Number. Apologies if it's a dumb one, but if this has, for example an R0 of 2.2, I get that means the patient can effectively infect 2.2 more people.. now does that mean 2.2 people at any one time, or everytime the patient comes in to contact with new people? The British guy who has now infected 11 people.. these have all been at different points (well aside from the 5 staying in the same chalet as him in france) does this mean they can say it has an R-0 of 11 currently, or a 5 as he infected 5 people at once in the chalet.. its confusing me, and I'm not even sure my question makes any sense?!

They are calling him a super spreader, i.e. his individual Ro is much higher than nnormal.

Since we don't know what normal is, and he's only the 3rd confirmed UK case, and he's infected 11 people (at least) I don't buy it that he's a super spreader, rather he's a normal spreader.

Hence the chaotic panic in China, and I think the rapid rise we're going to see in the rest of the world over then enxt month.

If it has an Ro of even 6 compared to 1.3 for flu and 2 for sars, then it's a disaster that will be the most catastrophic event in the entirity of human history.

I wonder if the super spreader smokes?

I've wondered if some people with weaker immune systems,including children, might get infected and the virus just goes nuts. They carry a heavy viral load but the immune system is none the wiser and so neither is the carrier.

originally posted by: DAZ21
I think this thing mutates so fast that the strain is different enough to be caught again and so on so forth.

This resource shows the various genetic makeups of the virus and you can see where each case was identified:
Next Strain Genetic Makeup - nCov-2019

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
a reply to: Power_Semi

85% of cases are non-smokers!

Either that's just coin-cidence or there is something to it and also could be the reason why Governments wanted 'smoking' banned and people to give up... it's possible.

I'm off to buy some cigars.

I'll have one in between each cigarette.

Good thinking. I was about to give up, but now is not the time. Bust out the Reds.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: celltypespecific


1.8 v 2.2

Those are not very far apart. Po-tay-toe ... po-tah-toe ...

So since no one says po-tah-toe, does that mean R0 is 1.8? Aristotle might argue the logic but I'll take it!

originally posted by: EnhancedInterrogator
UPDATE: as it turns out, this website may be connected to Steve bannon. So take this with a grain of salt...

Rotflmao!

I trust Steve far more than most any of the other sources being used here to drive the fear...

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: tanstaafl
Just because I can’t prove something doesn’t make it right untrue or vis versa,

I agree - and the same is true for pretty much any and every baseless claim under the sun.

Evidence. Substance. Severely lacking in this thread.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

I think it means those two are so close as to be no real meaningful difference.

Really, I don't think they know for sure and likely won't until the dust settles on this thing.

before everyone goes off and takes up a habit that may be more likely to kill them than the virus; I should point out that this is based on data from just over 1k people and just one study. Oh and ex-smokers were also less likely infected so no need to take it back up. Who knows though, even if that data is correct, it may just delay your body's response to the virus. And you might need good lung function to run away from the hoards of infected on one side and the hoards of smokers on the other!

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

It’s both, 1 can fall into 2 in China because of terrible air quality and a much poorer public health network.

Group 1 may move around more, more active and exposure due to lifestyle. If they have underlying undiagnosed issues or a chronic disease, higher chance of severe infection. So they could have a higher morbidity rate. This is the group where those 2% mortality rates are coming from.

Group 2 should have a higher mortality rate and an increased rate of hospital acquired infections, lower rate of noticeable infection or morbidity than group one from natural exposure. This is the group where those 25-40% mortality rates are coming from.

Any virus can kill anyone, just like any of these respiratory viruses, including seasonal can potentially send a strong healthy type into an inflammatory or respiratory syndrome. We will see different rates with different populations. Including between ours and those in China.

a reply to: FamCore

There is a slideshow that goes with that sight that explains what you're seeing, and they mention there I believe that it takes around 3 weeks for any real meaningful mutation to show up in any single strain. In this case, meaningful means having a chance to impact how the virus behaves.

What they are tracking are tiny differences rather than big ones for the most part. Every virus picks these up and they aren't going to affect how it behaves. They do allow them to track an outbreak based on samples and viral genetics.

If we count back from today to November 4th as a starting point, that's 14 weeks. That gives us about 3 chances for major mutations to occur. There is another potential window coming up next week for a 15th week.

And that's all approximate. Just because this could have occurred (major mutation) doesn't mean it has. And just because it can happen every three weeks, doesn't mean it keeps that schedule either. This is just an at most sort of supposition.

And for the idea of reinfection, yes, it could happen, but you need a strain far enough from the original to cause major illness. The tiny changes won't do it. Major changes might, but even then, the virus will be close enough to its parent strain that the previous antibodies should still work to some degree, and the system will tend to carry them for a while depending on the individual.

originally posted by: Ophiuchus 13
What frequency eradicates this type of virus level

🤔

"Scientists may one day be able to destroy viruses in the same way that opera singers presumably shatter wine glasses. New research mathematically determined the frequencies at which simple viruses could be shaken to death.

This is precisely what RRR (Royal Raymond Rife) did back in the 1930s I believe. He cured cancer, and his life was destroyed because of it.

Read the book 'The Cancer Cure that Worked' for the whole story.

He also invented a microscope that worked at the level of an Electron Microscope, but allowed you to view live microbes, instead of having to kill them like you do with an electron microscope.

So I was dumb to quit smoking a couple of years ago.
WTF?

Anyone who runs out and decides to start smoking cigarettes because of something they read on the internet with no proof is a complete moron.

a reply to: butcherguy

Smoke 'em if you got 'em! (sang the sergeants decades ago)

Cheers

Closing places down in the U.K. now, tbh I think that super spreader has done it, personally I’d say depending on how long he’s been spreading it , where he’s been and how contagious he was that potentially a lot of people that are walking around that don’t know they have it!
news.sky.com...

originally posted by: ItsOkToBeHappy
Anyone who runs out and decides to start smoking cigarettes because of something they read on the internet with no proof is a complete moron.

I haven't done it yet.
I worked too hard to stay off of them.
It would just figure to be true though.

My colleague just told me that she's excited about her upcoming cruise 30 days from now. Granted, it's to the Bahamas, but it just seems like a REALLY bad time to get on any cruise ship. I've mentioned the Coronavirus information before to her and she just rolls her eyes, so nothing I say will make any difference.

After writing this, it just occurred to me that spring break is about to take place in the U.S. where thousands and thousands of college and high school students will be traveling all over. I know according to the CDC we only have 12 cases, but after reading about that super spreader in the U.K. it really only takes coming into contact with one person like that during spring break season to kick start this in the U.S.

Well, I guess the masses need to drop what they're doing and run out and get their Seppuku knife!

Remember this...

Society today, regardless of where you are, is akin to a bullseye target. People outside the "5" ring are 3rd world countries already in chaos. People in the "5" ring are the fringes of modern society. People inside the "6" ring are productive, law abiding, citizens. This is where most of all of us exist. They are considered the 'expendibles'; a durable and resilient insulator, critical to the survival of the inner rings, but expendible none the less. People inside the "7" ring are the upper class of society, wealthy, have immediate access to advanced health care. The only difference between the "6" ring is money. People inside the "8" ring are the super-wealthy. These are the Bill Gates, the Bezos' of society. The elites also exist here, Clintons, Rockefellers, etc. Each successive ring representing a much smaller subset of society.

Interestingly, the people who exist in the "9" ring do nothing for society, or you and me. They exist solely to insulate the people inside the "X" (or "10") ring from all the other rings. The "X" ring contains the self-anointed 'chosen ones'.

Once the boundary between the 6th and 7th rings has crumbled via disease or chaos, the 8th ring will be left behind to defend themselves; their sway only carries so much. They've always known this, which is why they try at every turn to eliminate the middle classes. It's to create a bigger buffer zone between them and the people 'beneath' them. The 9th ring will be in full lock-down mode. A quarantine of pure force and might. No law, no constitution or charter will breach this boundary. All bets are off...whatever it takes. Nothing goes in, nothing comes out (except their garbage), no exceptions. They have long since forgotten about any of the other rings; they no longer matter.

If the doom predictions are true, then the boundary between the 6th and 7th ring has already been broken.

Some people call it "continuity of Government", and some replace "Government" with "Society", or "humanity". But no matter what, NONE of us have to worry about what they call it, because it doesn't matter. It is irrelevant. Some may debate who is in which ring, but does it really matter? The common person is nowhere to be found in any of those inner rings.

How's that for some good 'Doom-porn'???

You can run scared, but you'll just die scared and tired.