Quake Watch 2013

reply to post by Elliot


Usually our News services are on the ball, didn't see anything about that one on the 6pm News, you would think if a Tsunami Alert was in place it would be announced there. Daylight Saving on here now so that 2013-09-30 05:55:56 event time would be 2013-09-30 06:55:56NZDT, after the News finished.
False alarm anyway, Geofon have it at 6.4Mw, below the "Very Strong" threshold, even the Seddon July 6.5 didn't cause a Tsunami and that was only 10km from shore

reply to post by bkaust

Not on the public lists that I could see, its outside the coverage area for Geonet, which is approx.
Lat -32.16917 to -49.26129 and Long 164.26490 to -175.66887
but its in the downloadable data;

Ref: 2013p735802
When: 30/09/2013 05:55:54UTC
Lat, Long:-31.6258, -176.6043
Depth: 232.508km
Magnitude: 5.77 ML
Status: reviewed
Number of Phases: 26
Update Time: 30/09/2013 06:06:45UTC

wfs-beta.geonet.org.nz...:quake&outputFormat=csv&cql_filter=orig intime>='2013-09-29'

reply to post by muzzy


Comes up in the GeoNet lists in QVSData

5.76 now.

What that Kermadec quake does highlight, is that for the 2nd time this month a M5+ is preceded by the 24 hour energy count falling below 10TTNT the day or several days beforehand. So it may seem I need to include the Kermadec islands in that theory.
Its not much use though if its only 50% accurate (for Sept anyway) and there is no way of knowing where in the NZ regional area the M5+ it is going to be, and the data hasn't been loaded to the public forums before the M5+ happens
Keeps me interested enough to check and update events every few days anyway.



Summary of the muzzy theory of how low value 24 hour ttnt counts preceed M5+ events for New Zealand (incl Kermadecs) in 2013. To be read in conjunction with the NZ energy-graphs page

v's fit with the theory, x's didn't

x. Jan 8th M5+ nothing for late December 2012 prior graphed in detail so not sure what the ttnt counts were.
v. Jan 12th and 13th had 9 and 4 ttnt, then on Jan 20th a M5+ , (7days later)
x. Jan 24th, 25th, 26th and 31st had 3,7,2and 8 ttnt but no M5+, although there were 4 xM4's on the 28th (4-2 days later)
v. Feb 13th had 7 ttnt with a M6+ on the 16th (3 days later)
v. Feb 19th and 20th had a low count of 11 and 16 ttnt then a M5+ on the 23rd (3 days)
x. March 6th, 8th, 9th were 8, 8, 6 ttnt repectively, but no M5+ eventuated, and same with 13th (3 ttnt) and 15th (5 ttnt)
v. March 25th ttnt count was a low of 7 ttnt, on the 30th a M5+ occured (5 days later)
v. April 3rd, 4th had 6 and 4 ttnt, and a M5+ hit on the 5th
x. 9th ( 8 ttnt) and 11th (3 ttnt) did not produce a M5+
v. April 17th and 21st and 25th dropped to 9 ttnt, 8ttnt and 7 ttnt before the M5+ on the 26th
x. April 27th (7ttnt) and 28th (8ttnt) did not result in any M5+
x. nor the low of 6 ttnt on the 16th
v. the next M5+ was on the 27th May which was preceded by a low of 10 on the 25th (2 days prior)
v. June had a M5+ on the 15th preceded by a low of 9 ttnt on the 14th
x. but the low of 6 ttnt on the3rd June did not result in a M5+
v. July 30th dropped to 5 ttnt and a M5+ hit on the 1st July and again on the 3rd July and the 10th July (2, 5 and 11 days later)
v. The M6.5 and 3 x M5+'s of 21st July was preceded by a low of 7 ttnt on the 17th (4 days prior)
v. The M6.6 and 12 xM5+'s of 16th August was proceed by a low of 5 ttnt on the 13th Aug (3 days prior)
v. August 31st seen a drop to 9 ttnt followed by a 5+ on the 1st Sept ( 1 day later) and 2x 5+'s on the 4th.
v. Low of 8 ttnt on the 8th was followed by a 5+ on the 10th (2 days later)
x. the 5+ on the 21st was not preceeded by a low below 10, the lowest count being 12 ttnt on the 14th Sept in the 10 days prior.
v. Last one the 5+ on 30th Sept preceded by a low of 4 ttnt on the 29th.(1 day prior)

the score is 14 times the theory panned out, 8 times it didn't
so could one say that when the ttnt drops below 10ttnt there is a 63-64% chance a M5+ will occur within 1-7 days?
I think so.
This is not a prediction, this is FACT

reply to post by muzzy


Well done Muzzy. Try looking for further evidence and correlations. As an example, if the level falls below 10 AND the moon phase is this or the tides are this or some other factor. Western science is all about putting things in boxes rather than looking at continuums. Tall people in this box, short in this box rather than let's form a line.

Including more factors into your model may help a lot. Could I suggest a spreadsheet with all your current data and then start filling in possible related data in the empty columns and see if anything jumps out and bites you.

Moon phases, tides, storms, wind, solar activity etc. Look for negatives as well as positives.

That's all I've got.

P

www.ga.gov.au/earthquakes/getQuakeDetails.do?quakeId=3416368

www.iris.washington.edu/servlet/quackquery/plotcache/webicorder_fKMBL.AU..BHZ.2013.273.png

Near Norseman, WA.
Magnitude: 3.7 (Ms)
Depth: 12 km
Tsunamigenic: Not available

Date and Time
UTC: 30 September 2013 @ 21:14:03
Sydney Time: 01 October 2013 @ 07:14:03 (AEST)

Location
Coordinates: -31,898, 121,498

Solution status
Last updated: 01 October 2013 @ 10:34:58 (AEST)
Solution finalised: Yes
Source: AUST

reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo


hmm, it's under 100km from the Super Pit a gold mine that can apparently be seen from space - maybe they're searching a bit further out for some more mining opportunities? there is still lots to be found around Kalgoorlie, even regular aussies pack up to move there to go digging for it!

^take it with a bit of sarc. I know WA has fairly regular eq's

reply to post by pheonix358

Yes I will do that, often it can be what doesn't happen that stands out.
I did something similar a few years ago with Global mag 6+ quakes and nothing stood out as much as this does, although its too hard to get TTNT readings for the whole planet as no network comes even close to covering everything yet.

Geonet has done away with their interactive map with the bar along the top.
But have this one now where you can select the parameters.
Bit of a small swarm going on between White Island volcano and Opotiki in the Bay of Plenty.
also a lingering aftershock from 2011? 4.6 Pegusus Bay Christchurch

Hey guys ,
I don't want an EQ on the west coast , I don't know even a fraction of what some of you do about the subject but could someone explain to me just why there hasn't really been a bigger Mag. on the west coast ?
There have been larger mags all along the ring of fire except Cali......any theories or facts ?

Thanks in advance

ujustneverknow
Hey guys ,
I don't want an EQ on the west coast , I don't know even a fraction of what some of you do about the subject but could someone explain to me just why there hasn't really been a bigger Mag. on the west coast ?
There have been larger mags all along the ring of fire except Cali......any theories or facts ?

Thanks in advance

Theory, It is stuck, like a hanging from a ten story building by your finger nails. You know you will fall but not when. Now equate every second you hang there to geological time and every second may be several decades.

The problem is that the longer the fault is stuck, the more energy it will release when it does go.

The biggest problem is to honestly realize that we know diddly squat about earthquakes. Once you wrap your head around that undeniable fact you will understand that it could go now, tomorrow or next week, maybe Thursday!

P

Kill 2 birds with one stone here;
1. this is the same quake, just the various estimates

[font=Verdana]Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
jma,2013-10-01 03:40:00, 52.500, 155.100, 6.3, 570.0, Kamchatka Peninsula And Its Vicinity
gfzp,2013-10-01 03:38:22, 53.200, 152.840, 6.6, 573.0, Sea Of Okhotsk
usgs,2013-10-01 03:38:21, 53.166, 152.741, 6.4, 565.7, Sea Of Okhotsk [F]
emsc,2013-10-01 03:38:21, 53.209, 152.803, 6.4, 567.0, Sea Of Okhotsk [/font]

2. Let P'man know the new installation of Data Pro works fine

add

cenc, 2013-10-01 11:38:21.2, 53.1, 152.7, 560, Ms6.7, Okhotsk
gsras,2013-10-01 03:38:20.8, 53.05, 152.88, 580, 6.7mb, Sea of Okhotsk

Earthquakes at Tjörnes Fracture Zone, Iceland are getting stronger. The swarm has been going for week already, and now first quake over 3 mag was detected, and another one very close to that magnitude. There has been 146 quakes in 48 hours, 45 of them were stronger than 2.0. They all seem to be at Husavik-Flatley Fault between North American Plate and Eurasian Plate. The plates are grinding each other, NAP is moving towards NW while Eurasian plate is moving towards SE. There is no volcanoes there, if you don't count the submarine fissure vents. Also, there isn't much population in the area



Magnitude&Time graph


Bit shaky


Tjörnes Fracture Zone Earthquake Map

reply to post by muzzy

This was a test to see if some HTML would load on here, but alas it doesn't show the images. Posting it in plain form anyway.
I prefer this type of information rather than the silly Felt map Geonet are using now.
NZ Felt Reports Reader is another P'man development, to put things back to how they were before Geonet went silly in Sept 2012.

Public ID: 2013p737471
Universal Time: 2013/09/30 20:44:58
Local time (NZDT): 2013/10/01 09:44:58
Latitude, Longitude: 43.50°S, 172.78°E
Location: Peguusus Bay, Mid Canterbury - [GL16251]
Depth: 6 Km
Magnitude: 4.6
Reported Felt as
Strong [45]:New Brighton [26], Sumner [19]
Rather Strong [408]:Akaroa [4], Avondale [11], Avonside [2], Bromley [17], Burwood [21], Cashmere [8], Christchurch [165], Dallington [6], Edgeware [5], Ferrymead [8], Ilam [23], Linwood [21], North New Brighton [24], Parklands [43], Richmond [8], Saint Albans [24], Shirley [18]
Moderate [429]:Addington [26], Aranui [17], Avonhead [7], Beckenham [3], Belfast [3], Bishopdale [16], Brooklands [2], Bryndwr [5], Burnside [6], Casebrook [11], Clarkville [2], Diamond Harbour, Fendalton [5], Governors Bay [2], Greta Valley [2], Harewood [9], Heathcote Valley [3], Hillsborough [2], Hoon Hay [4], Hornby, Huntsbury [2], Kaiapoi [44], Kainga [5], Lincoln [2], Little River, Mairehau [18], Marshland [3], Merivale [13], Middleton [5], Mount Pleasant [8], Northwood [5], Ohoka [2], Omihi, Opawa [6], Papanui [12], Pegasus [2], Phillipstown [6], Prebbleton, Rangiora [4], Redcliffs [4], Redwood [13], Riccarton [24], Robinsons Bay, Russley [5], Saint Martins [8], Sockburn, Somerfield [3], South New Brighton [10], Southshore [3], Spencerville [2], Spreydon [3], Strowan [2], Sydenham [16], The Pines Beach [2], Tuahiwi, Upper Riccarton [7], Waikuku Beach, Waimairi Beach [7], Wainoni [7], Wainui [2], Waltham [9], Woodend [5], Woodend Beach, Woolston [23], Yaldhurst [2]
Slight [4]:Marchwiel, Oaklands, Wigram [2]
Total 886

Felt this one here 42 minutes ago (very slight, more a disturbance of the calmness of the early morning than a shake)

Public ID 2013p739681
Universal Time October 1 2013 at 16:22:32
NZ Daylight Time Wednesday, October 2 2013 at 5:22:32 am
Latitude, Longitude -41.54, 174.40
Intensity ? moderate
Focal Depth 22 km
Magnitude 4.7
Location 30 km east of Seddon
Agency WEL(GNS_Primary)
Status ? reviewed
Quality ? best
www.geonet.org.nz...

Reported Felt as;
Destructive [1]: Onerahi
Strong [3]: Spring Creek [3]
Rather Strong [76]: Karori [27], Marlborough, Mount Cook [12], Newtown [10], Seddon [2], Wellington [24]
Moderate [321]: Aro Valley [3], Avalon [3], Berhampore [3], Birchville [3], Blenheim [8], Boulcott [2], Broadmeadows, Brooklyn [10], Brown Owl, Carterton, Churton Park [2], Days Bay, Double Cove, Duncan Bay, Eastbourne [5], Elsdon, Epuni [2], Fairfield [3], Fairhall, Featherston, Glenside, Hataitai [4], Highbury, Homedale, Hurdon, Island Bay [17], Islington, Johnsonville [4], Kelburn [5], Kilbirnie [4], Levin, Lower Hutt [11], Lyall Bay [6], Makara, Maungaraki, Miramar [14], Mornington, Mount Victoria [7], Naenae [7], Nelson, Newlands [2], Ngaio [7], Normandale, Northland, Opawa, Owhiro Bay, Paparangi, Paraparaumu [4], Paraparaumu Beach, Paremata, Petone [4], Picton [13], Pinehaven, Pipitea [2], Porirua [2], Rarangi, Redwoodtown [6], Riverlands, Riversdale [2], Riverstone Terraces, Rona Bay, Roseneath [3], Seatoun [5], Silverstream [2], Southgate [2], Springlands [2], Stokes Valley [3], Strathmore Park [3], Taita [2], Tawa [10], Te Aro [23], Thorndon [7], Tirohanga, Upper Hutt [7], Wadestown [6], Waikawa [3], Wainuiomata [20], Wallaceville, Waterloo [2], Wellington Cbd [4], Whitby [5], Wilton [3], Witherlea [4], Woburn [6], Woodridge
Slight [8]: Greytown, Khandallah, Korokoro, Otaki, Raumati Beach [2], Waiwhetu, York Bay

Total 409

Onerahi is likely a mistake, thats way up in the top of the North Island
nice clean trace on IRIS SNZO

Just wanted to share this message with the few people who still utilize USGS websites.
This message is popping up at the top of their webpages:

Due to a lapse in Federal funding, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has suspended most of its operations. While the USGS will continue to monitor and report on earthquake activity, the accuracy or timeliness of some earthquake information products, as well as the availability or functionality of some web pages, could be affected by our reduced level of operation.

reply to post by Olivine


You can blame the Republicans for that

Share Market crashing too?

muzzy
reply to post by Olivine

 

You can blame the Republicans for that

Share Market crashing too?

Last I checked, you could blame Republicans for pretty much anything.

reply to post by Thebel

Husavik-Flatley

?? I guess that is the answer then - it is all the Riverdance folk doing their thing.

Maybe the promised 7+ will materialise, or maybe it will just fizzle out as usual.

reply to post by muzzy


I think it is a world wide theory. We have all commented on it before, and I have noticed the numbers falling on a annualised basis but the average energy per quake going up.

I started on an exercise to check it out and have all the data from 2002 but it is taking hours and hours of work assembling it. I have got to 2007 so far and it takes many hours to do a few months..........but I shall keep at it.