NOAA Warns of a Solar Storm Region Facing Earth for Next Two Weeks, Carrington-like Event!

Originally posted by proob4
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Nov 08 2355 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2011
* * * * * * * * * * Corrected Copy * * * * * * * * * *

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N19W08) produced a
few low-level C-class events during the period. The region continued
to exhibit slow decay, both in area and spot count, as well as
magnetic complexity losing its Delta configuration. The other large
region on the disk, Region 1338 (S14W25) also is in slow decay, both
in area and magnetic complexity, and is now classified as a Beta
group. New region 1344 (S22W07) emerged on the disk early in the
period as a simple uni-polar spot group. Early in the period, a
filament eruption along a 25 degree channel was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery beginning at about 07/2232Z. LASCO C2 imagery first observed
a CME lifting off the NW limb at 07/2348Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or greater) from Region 1339. There is also a
slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude minor storm periods. Solar wind speeds generally were
below 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +/- 7 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day one and two of the period
(09 - 10 November). By day three (11 November), the field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated high
latitude active periods, as glancing blow effects from the 07
November CME are felt.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 181
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 180/180/175
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 004/005-004/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/13
Minor storm 02/02/03
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/16
Minor storm 13/13/20
Major-severe storm 08/08/14

Yeah,.
Sure seems like those that are actually scientists are not seeing a concern here.
But if you ask the at home keyboard scientist on ATS,. it is doooooommm all the time.

reply to post by camaro68ss


This is inevitable at some point or another. If The United States Department of Homeland Security
is worth their weight in Salt, they would have purchased say 250 transformers ,(that take a minimum
of one year to build at $1 Mil Minimum a Pop.) and would have them stored underground in Faraday Cages.
So, no worries. Janet has all ready thought of that. Everything is under control.

By the way, those Types of Transformers are "Demand Only." In other words, Suppliers Do Not
have those in stock. These units have to be Specified,Designed,and Paid in Full before they are
"Site Ready." Lag time is approx. 1 year.

Just think about those rotten unchargable Apples for a moment.

Best Regards to your Great post. S&F

I tried to trace this article back to the source, which is apparently the NOAA, but I was not successful. The site linked in the OP, shtfplan, goes to a place called the intelhub, and they cite the Washington Post, the only one of the three I have ever heard of.

The WP article just links to the general site of NOAA, and not this particular article that we are discussing. Anyway, my point is this: Their article was doomy and gloomy at all, and they actually downplayed it and said it is just a possibility that we will even get hit, and not an inevitability. First a flare has to shoot off from the sun, and then it has to actually hit the Earth. There is a lot of room for error given something traveling at an angle over the course of 93 million miles has a good chance of missing us.

Anyway, their article doesn't mention anything about a Carrington-like event, and this seems to have been added by some overzealous writer at the site linked in the thread post. I suppose it is possible, but not really all that probable.

Maybe tomorrow some solar radiation will hit Earth and cause a blackout during the EBS. So I say you are correct that it is possible, although I personally don't see it as being very likely. On the 3rd of this month they said we would be facing that area of the sun in 5 days, so did it start today or will it start tomorrow? Anyone know? I suppose it doesn't make much difference though.

I swear to gosh, if that effsup my MW3 multiplayer experience....

reply to post by storm2012


People like diabetics won't be able to survive without refrigeration or people to manufacture their medicine. What about other people who need refrigerated health supplements or necessities to stay alive?

Those people will surely not live.

reply to post by JiggyPotamus


Hi, maybe i can help. I love getting my solar updates on spaceweather.com.I think what your looking for may be on there?I would call myself 'n (very) amature Helioseismologist...very amature.I've been monitoring the sun since early this year so i think its true what you were saying, most of the m-class flares released go waaay past us if you factor in the rotation and other planets blocking the flare path. If you look at the general output from the sun, the flares would look more like the leaves of a rose than a strait linear path.

I hope that makes sense?

Hrm. I would say from watching the monster spot the past days since it rounded the corner of the sun a few days ago..its gotten rather quiet. It was rather active with M and X flares and now its been spouting B and C class mostly. It is quite possible it will stay simmered down as it transits the earth facing portion of the solar disk. At this point I am only occasionally peeking at the Solar X Ray plot from GOES which is in my opinion one of the most important space weather data charts out there. I suggest to anyone wanting to monitor flare activity in near real time, keep this bookmarked or in an open tab as it refreshes every few minutes on its own. The red line is the line that determines what class on the scale a particular event falls into, so pay attention to that one. There are more details on the page linked for the other graphs and further info but I really think the Xray plot is a good start for anyone new to monitoring this stuff.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

I have had no trouble accessing anything from the SWPC today so the link should work. Some of you had me a little worried though

reply to post by camaro68ss


well, we just got power back after about 10 days...(connecticut) so i'd prefer to keep it for a while

I'm not sure if this is related to solar activity or not, or if it even happens all the time, but I noticed something tonight i've never seen before. I'm an amateur astronomer, and tonight I was checking out Jupiter and 4 of its moons. When I was done checking it out I figured i'd look at our moon for a bit. What I saw was a little odd to me because i'd never seen it before.

Around the moon's edges, there was some type of radiation coming off of it. The best way I could describe it would be like seeing heat radiating off of asphalt on a hot summer's day. Our moon might be like that all the time, i'm not sure, but this was the first i'd ever noticed it.

Feel free to call me a "noob" if you want, but i'd never seen it before and I thought i'd share

reply to post by camaro68ss

the risk over the next two weeks of a Carrington-like event are higher now than at anytime in the last decade.

Well thats not very considering the sun has been in a very quiet state for a good chunk of the last decade..

Awesome! Something to look forward to now along with 11-11-11!

Originally posted by goldcoin

This is fun. This whole month has been warning of asteroids, tsunamis, national emergency drills and now a higher then likely Carrington event could manifest

it's like its the end of the world or something!

edit on 8-11-2011 by goldcoin because: (no reason given)

Don't think u'll be playing smartass if a CME of this magnitude DOES hit earth, especially not online, through the phone, or against your relative that happens to be hooked up to a life support system.

It happened before, it will happen again. Though this time the actual impact will be MUCH greater and might destroy life as we know it.

This it doesn't look to good to me,www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by PerceptionReality
Awesome! Something to look forward to now along with 11-11-11!

This is all setting up to be the perfect 11/11/11 Iran with solar flares, even the Vatican is worried.

Contreversy Erupts in Vatican over 11/11/11

the electro mechanical corp.in bristol va.builds transformers pretty fast.they built the one on airforce one.still plates ,fiber glass and copper wire.now them ge power plant generators would take at least a couple weeks.

Originally posted by diamondsmith
This it doesn't look to good to me,www.swpc.noaa.gov...

There is nothing wrong with that photo.
If you monitor the sun a bit more you won't have to say such things.
There are several active regions at the moment but none of them are a threat to earth.
They are all very stable and activity is gone down in the last 3 days.
Only 2 regions have the potential to cause an M-flare. Nothing to worry about.
The one they are monitoring closely right now is AR11339

Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with two C-class flares, the largest being a C2 from region 1339 (N19W06) which is gradually declining. Further C-class events are likely over the next 3 days, with the chance of an M-class flare. The solar wind speed increased gradually from ~350km/s to ~400km/s. Until ~16UT, IMF Bz varied from -8nT to +7nT, with some sustained southward excursions. Since then it has fluctuated between +/-5nT. A CME first observed at 07/2348 in LASCO imagery is not expected to be geoeffective.

www.ips.gov.au...
Solar activity last 1 month plot


Flare predictions

Movie of the last 2 weeks from the GOES-15 satellite
satdat.ngdc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by intergalactic fire
Ya thanks!!But they already start hiding data and I know what I'm talking about!www.lmsal.com...

reply to post by diamondsmith


I can't get on the solarsoft server.
But what data are you referring to?

edit: Or do mean hiding because it says forbidden?

reply to post by InFriNiTee


The corporations surely have them convinced they will not live, but it will be interesting to see what happens when we don't have all of their "necessities" While surely many will suffer and die, many others will all of a sudden find they didn't need the medicines and treatments etc.. It will be the great test of what is real and what is simply brainwashing and marketing.

reply to post by intergalactic fire
No, because 2 to 3 days before the event they close the server,and after they open the data is missing especially the X class flares goes......gap!!