YU55 Closer Than JPL Indicates?

Originally posted by Gazrok

Someone needs to come up with some forum rules for all these people who keep extracting orbits into the future and past about random planet X's and other things using the basic simulator. Nasa state specifically that to get accurate information use the Horizons interface! Therefore we need a mandate to ensure people backup their 'prelim' data with data from Horizons.
Without doing that it basically trashes most of the work posters do on here regarding orbits crossing x y z at x months/years in the future.

It's a conspiracy site, and you're expecting all posters to simply accept "the man's" tools as gospel? Of course people are going to calculate on their own, that's part of the fun. Besides, if one can make a strong case for their calculations, more power to them...

No one need take "the man's" tools as gospel in order to properly calculate the orbit of this asteroid. You don't even have to take professional astronomers' astrometric readings as gospel, you can ignore all the government numbers completely and if you do it right you'll still come up with an answer that is in close agreement with the government's numbers. How do I know? I know because I did it myself. There are free, open source tools for doing it right, which the OP didn't seem to be aware of.
www.projectpluto.com...
orsa.sourceforge.net...

Originally posted by AnonymousCitizen

Originally posted by TomServo
reply to post by AnonymousCitizen

 

Attention Phage and AnonymousCitizen.
It appears I may have made a fundamental mistake in my analysis. [snip] I hope I am correct in agreeing with your analysis!!!

Even with the data "anomaly" solved, there are still a LOT of things that seem weird. The tsunami simulation, the EAS drill, all the North America leaders together OFF the continent, the arrest of the soldier in Alaska...and on and on.

I am far away from a tsunami threat, but am preparing as if for a hurricane/earthquake/disaster/riot/martial law. Filling up the gas tank, carrying my bug out bag, and watching the various news sources. No harm in that, right?

What more can you do?

If I had a giant kevlar trampoline in orbit then I'd be more than happy to bounce the thing away.

I'm sure the NASA data will become exponentially more accurate, the closer the thing comes towards us.

A brilliant streak across the sky is what I want to film tonight.

Originally posted by lostjohnny
A brilliant streak across the sky is what I want to film tonight.

Well, I'm afraid Yu55 will be anything but brilliant. At its brightest it will be about magnitude 11. That's many times dimmer than what the human eye can see.

reply to post by ngchunter


Useful tools but unless we have a second or third opinion on top of JPL's data, then we will always worry about the ambiguity of the results.

reply to post by jeichelberg



The link to youtube works for me not sure what happened the website link???

try this...www.youtube.com...

Originally posted by ngchunter

Originally posted by lostjohnny
A brilliant streak across the sky is what I want to film tonight.

Well, I'm afraid Yu55 will be anything but brilliant. At its brightest it will be about magnitude 11. That's many times dimmer than what the human eye can see.

Clouds are overcast too - feels like the end of the world!

If I had a giant kevlar trampoline in orbit then I'd be more than happy to bounce the thing away.
________________________

What?...Thats suppose to stop or deflect a rock or a chunk of iron that is thousands of feet across and travelling 25x faster than a bullet...35,000mph...No way...

Vandenburg Airbase planning to launch against YU55 tonight???

Originally posted by lostjohnny
reply to post by ngchunter

 

Useful tools but unless we have a second or third opinion on top of JPL's data, then we will always worry about the ambiguity of the results.

Uhh, that was the point, I didn't use JPL's data, I generated my own using nothing but amateur observations of the asteroid.

Originally posted by ngchunter

Originally posted by lostjohnny
reply to post by ngchunter

 

Useful tools but unless we have a second or third opinion on top of JPL's data, then we will always worry about the ambiguity of the results.

Uhh, that was the point, I didn't use JPL's data, I generated my own using nothing but amateur observations of the asteroid.

That's great, but we still have to rely on yours and JPLs.

We just need a few dozen more folks like you who can produce data from observation and there will be less panic on the forums tonight!

Keep up the good work! I'm not expecting NASA to get it right!

Originally posted by lostjohnny

Originally posted by ngchunter

Originally posted by lostjohnny
reply to post by ngchunter

 

Useful tools but unless we have a second or third opinion on top of JPL's data, then we will always worry about the ambiguity of the results.

Uhh, that was the point, I didn't use JPL's data, I generated my own using nothing but amateur observations of the asteroid.

That's great, but we still have to rely on yours and JPLs.

Well if you won't trust data from an amateur astronomer, and if you won't even check my calculations for yourself with the tools I gave you... You can lead a horse to water.

Convenient... the jpl orbital diagram for yu55 is either down or very busy. Nonetheless, I cannot bring it up.
Here is the link that i frequented yesterday.
ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...
Anyone else have any luck bring this up?

Nevermind... got it
Nevermind... Dont got it

I am not very good at this, however wish to choose this info I found at the Jet Propulsion Lab of other asteroid's with higher probabilities to impact earth in the next week or two that they are watching. They look to be smaller if I am looking at this data correctly. Perhaps about 1/4 or 1/3rd the size of YU55. They are listed under IMPACT RISKS. Mind you 2005 YU55 is not on that list that I could find. I apologize but the spreadsheet factor/formatting did not tranfer/paste over.

DOES ANYONE KNOW IF THE AIR TRAFFIC HAS SLOWED DOWN ANYWHERE DUE TO INCOMING ASTEROID(S)? You would think that would be a wise decision somewhere.

Here is a link to Nasa's JPL, however to only one of the asteroids listed below. For some odd reason it kept kicking me out this time.
ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

2005 TM173
Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum) 0
Palermo Scale (maximum) -5.80
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -5.30
Impact Probability (cumulative) 8.3e-07
Number of Potential Impacts 134
Vimpact 14.15 km/s
Vinfinity 8.69 km/s
H 24.1
Diameter 0.051 km
Mass 1.8e+08 kg
Energy 4.4e+00 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability


These results were computed on Sep 15, 2011
2005 TM173
Earth Impact Table
Date Distance Width Sigma
Impact Sigma
LOV Stretch
LOV Impact
Probability Impact
Energy Palermo
Scale Torino
Scale
YYYY-MM-DD.DD (rEarth) (rEarth) (rEarth) (MT)
2011-12-15.81 127.77 5.31e+01 2.386 -0.70879 1.72e+05 2.4e-09 7.53e+00 -5.80 0



2009 VZ39
Date Distance Width Sigma
Impact Sigma
LOV Stretch
LOV Impact
Probability Impact
Energy Palermo
Scale Torino
Scale

2011-11-12.93 25.66 3.27e+01 0.754 -0.14406 1.12e+05 9.9e-08 2.07e-02 -6.03 0
2011-11-12.88 143.06 4.25e+02 0.334 1.17630 1.10e+05 5.1e-09 1.90e-01 -6.56 0

Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum) 0
Palermo Scale (maximum) -6.03
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -5.67
Impact Probability (cumulative) 7.1e-06
Number of Potential Impacts 796
Vimpact 12.87 km/s
Vinfinity 6.25 km/s
H 27.9
Diameter 0.009 km
Mass 1.3e+06 kg
Energy 2.5e-02 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability

Analysis based on
8 observations spanning .04342 days
(2009-Nov-10.27204 to 2009-Nov-10.31546)

Orbit diagram and elements available here.

2008 VS4
Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum) 0
Palermo Scale (maximum) -4.97
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -4.83
Impact Probability (cumulative) 7.1e-07
Number of Potential Impacts 264
Vimpact 13.44 km/s
Vinfinity 7.01 km/s
H 24.2
Diameter 0.050 km
Mass 1.7e+08 kg
Energy


Date Distance Width Sigma
Impact Sigma
LOV Stretch
LOV Impact
Probability Impact
Energy Palermo
Scale Torino
Scale

2011-11-18.50 79.26 3.07e+01 2.550 1.81032 2.05e+05 5.5e-10 1.80e+01 -5.98 0
2011-12-03.07 66.72 4.21e+01 1.560 0.85293 8.78e+04 2.7e-08 3.29e+00 -4.97 0

2007 YM
Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum) 0
Palermo Scale (maximum) -4.05
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -4.04
Impact Probability (cumulative) 5.4e-06
Number of Potential Impacts 114
Vimpact 13.79 km/s
Vinfinity 8.10 km/s
H 26.1
Diameter 0.020 km
Mass 1.1e+07 kg
Energy 2.5e-01 MT


Date Distance Width Sigma
Impact Sigma
LOV Stretch
LOV Impact
Probability Impact
Energy Palermo
Scale Torino
Scale

2011-11-29.24 32.48 2.64e+01 1.193 -0.28075 5.15e+03 1.7e-06 2.54e-01 -4.05 0

Originally posted by TomServo
Convenient... the jpl orbital diagram for yu55 is either down or very busy. Nonetheless, I cannot bring it up.
Here is the link that i frequented yesterday.
ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...
Anyone else have any luck bring this up?

Nevermind... got it
Nevermind... Dont got it

edit on 8-11-2011 by TomServo because: (no reason given)

edit on 8-11-2011 by TomServo because: (no reason given)

I Can't load it either.

reply to post by TomServo


nope me neither seems someone don't want us to see the data guess trying to hide it so mass panic wont start.

Sit out tonight roll a joint drink some beer and cheer.

reply to post by Nicolas Flamel


Actually are other ways of diverting an incoming asteroid. The thrusters of a ship have been shown in THEORY to change the projected path of an asteroid. Don't need to just blow it up. That also depends on the size. The one coming somewhat towards us not is the size of an aircraft carrier. That would be far easier to deal with than say one the size of Texas. I'm surprised no one has mentioned FX having an all day impending earth doom fest the other day.

I'm hearing/reading so many mixed reports on this, what are the odds of it hitting Earth? 1 in 100? 1 in 1,000,000? If Earth's gravity pulls it in will it break up once it enters our atmosphere? Should we be worried at all about this? Will you be able to see if pass by the planet tonight (around 11pm) if we dont have an impact?

reply to post by TomServo

Anyone else have any luck bring this up?

Loads just fine for me....@ 10:30 PST (That's AM).

The distance of closest approach to Earth is still 0.0022 AU. The observations are more refined all the time, as it nears.

No, it cannot hit the Earth.

No, the Earth's gravity cannot cause it to swing suddenly off-course and hit us (it is moving too fast, and the Sun has more influence than Earth, over-all).

And, Yes.....I'd expect every Original Poster of these asteroid 2005 YU55 threads fear mongering "It's Gonna Hit Us!!!" threads to either man up and admit they were over-reacting....or, be slapped in irons, and thrown in the dungeon.....

So this thing will whiz pass the Earth in a few hours? What part of the sky? What hemisphere/s will be able to observe it? In any nighttime hemisphere? Can it be seen during the day? With what needed telescope?