YU55 Closer Than JPL Indicates?

I am an engineer and my job involves various approaches to manipulating and analyzing data. I have this macro tool i use to interpolate and extrapolate data. So I took the distances of YU55 between Nov 4 - 11 (according to JPL, the close approach data is Nov 9 at 0.0022AU). Therefore, i get the following dataset:

Date Ref App Dist.
4 -5 0.0391
5 -4 0.0312
6 -3 0.0234
7 -2 0.0156
8 -1 0.0079
9 0 0.0022
10 1 0.0085
11 2 0.0162

Then I interpolate a per hour basis. So it looks something like:

Date Ref App Dist.
4 -5 -0.0391
-4.958333333 -0.038770833
-4.916666667 -0.038441667
-4.875 -0.0381125
... ... ...

Now think about this for a second... First of all, over a 7 day period, the trajectories of these two bodies are going to be relatively linear (straight). Therefore, the relative distance between the two will be linear as well (no corealis or angular acceleration or anything like that). Therefore, I should not see any significant disturbances in the data.
Secondly, the day to day distance given by jpl is taken at a 24 hr interval. Everything in between, they interpolate (supposedly just like I did). I compared their hour by hour distance to my interpolated data. All was spot on Until I got to the 8th (day before/of close approach). I observed that their distance decayed much more slowly than mine. So I created the following data. Notice, i applied the use of negative and positive distance to account for distance before and after close approach:

4 -5 -0.0391
5 -4 -0.0312
6 -3 -0.0234
7 -2 -0.0156
8 -1 -0.0079
9 0 0.0022
10 1 0.0085
11 2 0.0162

And came up with this during the course of Nov 8th:

8 -1 -0.0079
-0.958333333 -0.007479167
-0.916666667 -0.007058333
-0.875 -0.0066375
-0.833333333 -0.006216667
-0.791666667 -0.005795833
-0.75 -0.005375
-0.708333333 -0.004954167
-0.666666667 -0.004533333
-0.625 -0.0041125
-0.583333333 -0.003691667
-0.541666667 -0.003270833
-0.5 -0.00285
-0.458333333 -0.002429167
-0.416666667 -0.002008333
-0.375 -0.0015875
-0.333333333 -0.001166667
-0.291666667 -0.000745833
-0.25 -0.000325
-0.208333333 9.58333E-05
-0.166666667 0.000516667
-0.125 0.0009375
-0.083333333 0.001358333
-0.041666667 0.001779167
9 0 0.0022

Which indicates that the close approach distance is actually 0.0000958333 AU at about 7pm.

When I plotted this across the close approach date (9th, or day 0), I saw an odd jink (referenced above by differing distance decay), indicating that the supposed close approach distance (.0022) was further than the distance that the data would indicate IF (0, .0022) was not a 'known' point in the data.
So, I took the same approach, except using this data as reference:

Date Ref App Dist.
4 -5 -0.0391
5 -4 -0.0312
6 -3 -0.0234
7 -2 -0.0156
8 -1 -0.0079
10 1 0.0085
11 2 0.0162

Now things get interesting. According to this data, removing the supposed close approach distance which made me suspicious, the following is what the 8th looks like:

8 -1 -0.0079
-0.958333333 -0.007558333
-0.916666667 -0.007216667
-0.875 -0.006875
-0.833333333 -0.006533333
-0.791666667 -0.006191667
-0.75 -0.00585
-0.708333333 -0.005508333
-0.666666667 -0.005166667
-0.625 -0.004825
-0.583333333 -0.004483333
-0.541666667 -0.004141667
-0.5 -0.0038
-0.458333333 -0.003458333
-0.416666667 -0.003116667
-0.375 -0.002775
-0.333333333 -0.002433333
-0.291666667 -0.002091667
-0.25 -0.00175
-0.208333333 -0.001408333
-0.166666667 -0.001066667
-0.125 -0.000725
-0.083333333 -0.000383333
-0.041666667 -4.16667E-05
9 0 0.0003
0.041666667 0.000641667
0.083333333 0.000983333

Which indicates that the close approach distance is 0.0000416667AU = 3904 miles at about 11pm on the 8th, which is quite about closer than 200,000 miles.

This might not make sense to some. All I am trying to say here is that it appears the JPL data is inconsistent.

Some have asked for some sort of data representation. Here is a basic plot of the two datasets described above. One 'With' (blue) the 0.0022 point included, and the other 'Without' (red) the 0.0022 point included, substituting interpolation. I have done nothing to exaggerate how this data appears. It is what it is. In response to Phage, you can see when looking at such a narrow scope of 1 week, the data should be relatively linear. You can admit that this visual representation of the data indicates adverse manipulations. I apologize for any confusion. The point of this post is indicated in this image. It has little to do with accurate/inaccurate interpolations, but rather the accuracy and integrity of the supposed 0.0022 close approach distance.

x = Days (-6 to 2)
y = Distance (negative prior to close approach, positive after close approach)

EDIT: Okay, I reread it and now I get what you are saying. That is VERY interesting.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if you are correct, because I have a bad feeling about YU55 for some reason. My feeling isn't logical, but your numbers certainly seem to be.

First of all, thanks for that body of work you've posted, but ignorant people like me can't make head nor tails of all those numbers. Is there something visual we could look at? What contintent will it be closest to?

Secondly, who's 11pm? EST, PST, MST GMT?

reply to post by TomServo

I sincerely hope you're completely off base and wrong in your calculations. The reason I say that is the standard settings for the JPL simulators and data blocks isn't from the Earth's surface, but the Earth's center. The Earth is 7,900 miles in diameter, give or take. That means you're 3,950 miles to the surface before even starting into the way we're thinking about distance for a close pass.

Of course, that difference is academic and meaningless at over 200,000km distance. However. when a solid impact is well within the calculated distance, as your figuring would indicate...it doesn't feel very academic at all.

At least this is a question we have very little time left to wonder and worry about. Within a bit over a day, we'll know and the whole topic will be critical or moot.

reply to post by TomServo


Good job math guy!! Now you have me scratching my head and worrying at the same time! haha

Orbital calculations are not linear.

Use the HORIZONS interface to generate the geocentric coordinates (in AU) for the asteroid in whatever time increments you wish (down to one minute).

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

I do actually understand what you are saying OP, well about 95% of it.

What we would all like to know is, if this is going to get so close to the Earth, will it get "sucked" into us from gravity etc.?

Also, where abouts will it hit the Earth, roughly?

Get this right and you will be as famous as Einstein.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
reply to post by TomServo

 

I sincerely hope you're completely off base and wrong in your calculations. The reason I say that is the standard settings for the JPL simulators and data blocks isn't from the Earth's surface, but the Earth's center. The Earth is 7,900 miles in diameter, give or take. That means you're 3,950 miles to the surface before even starting into the way we're thinking about distance for a close pass.

Of course, that difference is academic and meaningless at over 200,000km distance. However. when a solid impact is well within the calculated distance, as your figuring would indicate...it doesn't feel very academic at all.

At least this is a question we have very little time left to wonder and worry about. Within a bit over a day, we'll know and the whole topic will be critical or moot.

Well, that's not good:

Which indicates that the close approach distance is 0.0000416667AU = 3904 miles at about 11pm on the 8th, which is quite about closer than 200,000 miles.

3904 is definitely less than 3950.

That's really interesting and lot of thinking put into it, I am also an engineer . All I can say is well lets hope your not right or were all doomed. What bugs me is how can astronomers figure out the orbit of a comet or a asteroid so many light years away, like how??? I know they have instrumentation to do so, but still when I think about, this things are so many millions of miles away, how can they figure out the orbit and make a chart based on it, I mean where do they get this much accurate info, I believe, they are hiding a source from the human population, only some know, and some will never know.

reply to post by windword


I think everything on JPL is UTC. Therefore 11pm UTC would be 5pm Central for me. I'll try to give the plot I created in excel which made me suspicious.

reply to post by Phage


They can be assumed as relatively linear when you are referencing such a small window. Why else would the day to day distances for all other days be relatively linear? When looking at a week long scope, the orbital deviations are negligible. I'm addressing a greater than negligible deviation here.

Hi.
Too many numbers for my poor brain to keep up with, but I get the gist of what you are saying.

A touch of the "lies and damned lies" with the figures.

I expect that the parallel tracks may in fact be more divergent than figures say, least ways thats what I hope.

Strangely, YU55 was the subject of comment on a Radio4 programme here in the UK on Sunday morning. I will take a look and see if I can find a link.

Things like this tend to get little notice taken of on Radio4 and the idea that it might hit the Earth, well I suppose early Sunday morning and there are not so many listeners.

Anyway, maybe I will just pop into Tesco and get a few extra tins of beans, just in case.

If anything happens, which I rather doubt, good luck everyone.

reply to post by TomServo

As I said, you can obtain the minute by minute coordinates and geocentric distances with the more accurate HORIZONS interface. There is no need for your inaccurate interpolation.

Well [SNIP]...I guess I don't get to go elk hunting this coming weekend.

Seriously, though...I was curious on the data, as well, not that I can understand everything in the OP, but I do understand that lower numbers are worse than larger ones when referencing distance. If the OP is accurate, and the distances are measured from Earth's center, like previously posted...then...we're funked.

Seems like we didn't hear about YU-55 until after all the Elenin broohaha...and YU-55 is a LOT closer.

Does anyone remember the thread posted on here a couple years ago that linked a presentation by a gentleman named Lucas, at "Brave New Books" in TX? If I find it, I'll link it here. He goes into much detail on some "endtimes prophecies", but one of the points that he makes has stuck with me. I'm paraphrasing: "As we get closer to the instance that something extraterrestrial will cause harm to us (alien or otherwise), TPTB will "discover" things (objects, craft, etc.) in trying to make this instance easier to accept."

The reason I bring this up, is I've noticed lately that we are being told about all these satellites falling to earth (several in a very short time). I don't, honestly, remember EVER being informed about satellites falling prior to this recent trend. Something I'm sure I would remember from any point in my youth, as I've always been fascinated with the sky/stars. Of course, with all of the NEOs that we're being shown recently (Elenin, YU-55, etc.), one tends to think that TPTB have knowledge of many more, but no need to concern us commonfolk with those just yet.

Lucas at Brave New Books

Mod Edit: Profanity/Circumvention Of Censors – Please Review This Link.

reply to post by TomServo


Exciting, Scary and Baffling all in one? S+F for you sir

The big question of the matter is... going by your new data, will it get close enough to the Earth to get caught by our gravity and make an impact?

Thanks for the research OP. I also would like to know where it's most likely to hit if it indeed gets pulled by Earth's gravity !

I'd just throw in as a reminder that Yu-55 is only a 400 meter diameter rock, at the high side of the estimates. It wouldn't hit the surface anywhere near that size, either. If it came in at the near impossible angle of 90 degrees and at the maximum range of speed for such things, it still wouldn't rise to the level of a global event, No where even close. I wouldn't want to be within a couple hundred miles of a land impact or in a beach house for an ocean hit, but it's no E.L.E. to worry about. The size and mass just isn't there.

However, after tomorrow evening if folks really feel the need to find things to be concerned about in space, there is always this to consider:





JPL Images of Inner Solar System / Asteroids and Comets

There are plenty more where that came from. It isn't if we'll get hit...just when will it happen again.

reply to post by TolanIsMaximus


Incremental conditioning and desensitization. I agree.

It's interesting how many people will star a post when it's obvious that many of us don't truly understand the math behind it.

I think some of you really enjoy your doomporn. Sad, really.


Another thread about YU55 is speculating that it would impact the North Atlantic. Based on this I used the impact calculator at impact.ese.ic.ac.uk... and am being told that even if YU55 were to impact the Earth it wouldn't kill us all.

Here are my inputs for review, please let me know if you see a mistake.

Distance from Impact: 16.10 km ( = 10.00 miles )
Projectile diameter: 400.00 meters ( = 1310.00 feet )
Projectile Density: 800 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 17.00 km per second ( = 10.60 miles per second )
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 1000 kg/m3
Target Type: Liquid water of depth 2.0 km ( = 1.2 miles ), over crystalline rock.

According to this information, outside of local damage to shorelines from the resulting tsunami, we wouldn't see a lot of negative effects on Earth.

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 3.87 x 1018 Joules = 9.25 x 102 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 6.5 x 104years

Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 84500 meters = 277000 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 13.1 km/s = 8.12 miles/s
The impact energy is 2.29 x 1018 Joules = 5.48 x 102MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 1.69 km by 1.19 km

Crater Dimensions:
What does this mean?


The crater opened in the water has a diameter of 4.74 km ( = 2.94 miles ).

For the crater formed in the seafloor:
The result of the impact is a crater field, not a single crater. The following dimensions are for the crater produced by the largest fragment.

Transient Crater Diameter: 8.68 meters ( = 28.5 feet )
Transient Crater Depth: 3.07 meters ( = 10.1 feet )

Final Crater Diameter: 10.9 meters ( = 35.6 feet )
Final Crater Depth: 2.31 meters ( = 7.58 feet )
The crater formed is a simple crater

The floor of the crater is underlain by a lens of broken rock debris (breccia) with a maximum thickness of 1.07 meters ( = 3.51 feet ).
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.00115 m3 = 0.0405 feet3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater

Thermal Radiation:
What does this mean?


At this impact velocity ( < 15 km/s), little vaporization occurs; no fireball is created, therefore, there is no thermal radiation damage.

Seismic Effects:
What does this mean?


The Richter Scale Magnitude for this impact is less than zero; no seismic shaking will be felt.

Ejecta:
What does this mean?


Almost no solid ejecta reaches this site.


Air Blast:
What does this mean?


The air blast will arrive approximately 48.8 seconds after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 165000 Pa = 1.65 bars = 23.4 psi
Max wind velocity: 250 m/s = 560 mph
Sound Intensity: 104 dB (May cause ear pain)
Damage Description:


Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse.

Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.

Highway truss bridges will collapse.

Glass windows will shatter.

Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.

Tsunami Wave:
What does this mean?

The impact-generated tsunami wave arrives approximately 2.4 minutes after impact.

Tsunami wave amplitude is between: 45.8 meters ( = 150.0 feet) and 97.5 meters ( = 320.0 feet).

Please clear up for me any mistakes I've made. Data regarding YU55 was gathered from JPL.




Keep in mind the damaged listed are for a distance of 10 miles from impact. If this thing truly did touch down in the North Atlantic there would be no trees/houses/etc for it to damage.