New ATS Member Claiming To Have Important Warning/Information. You Be The Judge...

Originally posted by jadedANDcynical

More to follow (I HATE the new post limits!!!!!)

yeah, me too.

found this concerning ETS in the CSZ. Its about the northern end. I think there is a correlation between them and EQs around the world, but need to research more. The average power of these events is thought to be in the range of a 6.7 EQ that is spread out over time and not felt.

Near southern Vancouver Island, the episodic slips are characterized by a recurrence interval of about 13 to 16 months, with a typical duration of about 10 days and displacement of 5 mm at the surface.

But it doesdnt appear at this time to affect that actual fault that is slipping

Second, more than 10 cycles of slip events have occurred at regular time intervals along various locations along the entire Cascadia subduction zone (Figure 3), but not even once has significant inter-plate earthquakes followed the slip events, suggesting that perturbations due to episodic slips have little cumulative effect on the mega-thrust.

ON EDIT some more;
This is an excellent summation of ETS events in the CSZ.

netfiles.uiuc.edu...

They happen every 11 months in the southern end, Gorda Plate, every 18 months in the main center section of the CSZ, the Juan de Fuca Plate, and every 14 months in the northern end.

The pdf says something very interesting. The ETS events that occur in Japan do seem to correlate with events in that area. But so far I havent found anything that addresses whether these ETS events correlate to other EQs around the world.

A similar, but not identical case has been reported in southern Japan where the northern edge of the Philippine Sea plate subducts under Japan. In this case, episodic slips typically last for a few days with a short recurrence interval of about 6 months [26, 30, 31]. The slip events correlate with strong tremor activities but intervening tremor activities are higher than those seen at Cascadia. The tremors in southern Japan contain frequencies up to 10 Hz and have durations that vary from hours to even weeks. Also the overall source area of tremors seems to be very large, over 600 km in length

Regarding the posts about resonance -

Could it potentially reach a point where it continues perpetually at an ever increasing rate once a certain threshold is reached?

Meaning, enough energy gets circling around the globe setting off more & bigger events which in turn set off even more & bigger events until everything is just completely spent?

Replying to myself as a method of continuing my prior post.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

I believe that this damping is what leads to the various types of pre-seismic phenomena we (the scientists who study this) are attempting to catalog and measure. The thermal image I posted from the Cornell study is a perfect example of this. It shows thermal imagery along with an anomaly very close to the epicenter of the 9.1 appeared on March 8, 3 days prior to the earthquake.

Now since we're freely throwing out troll bait, in any substantial study of resonance one will notice that Nikola Tesla is inextricably linked to resonance.

It was an innocent experiment. Tesla had attached a small vibrator to an iron column in his New York City laboratory and started it vibrating. At certain frequencies specific pieces of equipment in the room would jiggle. Change the frequency and the jiggle would move to another part of the room. Unfortunately, he hadn't accounted for the fact that the column ran downward into the foundation beneath the building. His vibrations were being transmitted all over Manhattan.

For Tesla, the first hint of trouble came when the walls and floor began to heave (ref 1). He stopped the experiment just as the police crashed through the door. It seems he'd started a small earthquake in his neighborhood smashing windows, swayed buildings, and sending panicked neighbors rushing into the streets. The police had frequently responded to complaints about Tesla's unusual activities.

Hopping down this rabbit hole (which is always interesting as I learn something new every time I look deeper into Tesla and his work) last night I came across a few interesting items beyond what is linked above.

For example, UC Berkley has this at their site. It's a presentation in which Tesla's Wardenclyffe Tower is linked to the Tunguska event.

I don't think I ever knew that any correlation was ever suggested between these two events (or if I did, I had forgotten about it) nor was I aware that:

An English engineer, J.H. Hamil, offered the American army plans for producing " an invisible ray
capable of stopping airplanes and automobiles in midflight," invented by a German scientist. The ray
device was said to have been used the previous summer to bring down French planes over Bavaria.
Hamil noted, however, that "the fundamental work was done by Nikola Tesla in Colorado Springs
about 30 years ago. He built a powerful electrical coil. It was found that the dynamos and other
electrical apparatus of a Colorado fuel company within a 100 yards or so were all put out of business.
1

source

Thirty years after Tesla's Colorado Springs experiments would have been the late 30s to early 40s. Which was the same time in which he was experiencing the most difficult times of his life and eventual death.

(screws on his lead-lined tinfoil hat a bit tighter)

Further:

Dr. John G. Trump was the main government official who went over Tesla's secret papers after his death in 1943. At the time, Trump was a well-known electrical engineer serving as a technical aide to the National Defense Research Committee of the Office of Scientific Research & Development, Technical Aids, Div. 14, NTRC (predecessor agency to the CIA's Office of Scientific Intelligence). Trump was also a professor at M.I.T., and had his feelings hurt by Tesla's 1938 review and critique of M.I.T.'s huge Van de Graaff generator with its two thirty-foot towers and two 15-foot-diameter (4.6 m) balls, mounted on railroad tracks—which Tesla showed could be out-performed in both voltage and current by one of his tiny coils about two feet tall.[112] Trump was asked to participate in the examination of Tesla's papers at the Manhattan Warehouse & Storage Co. Trump reported afterwards that no examination had been made of the vast amount of Tesla's property, that had been in the basement of the New Yorker Hotel, ten years prior to Tesla's death, or of any of his papers, except those in his immediate possession at the time of his death. Trump concluded in his report, that there was nothing that would constitute a hazard in unfriendly hands.

emphasis mine

Any relation to “The Donald?”

Anyway, I don't know if this derailment (I'm still unsure if a hoax thread can have an official topic) has any bearing on our current discussion, but I thought I would present it for consideration.

reply to post by onthelookout

Hi, onthelookout.

Good question. My feeling is that if the resonance gets strong enough then something will break and that will disturb or dampen/scatter the existing resonance energy, which cannot build up again until a new resonance equilibrium point (my term) is established. Something like making a crystal wine glass ring too much. Of course, unlike said wine glass, the earth is not a simple and rather static system. It's a multi-layered, intertwined system of levels of energy and matter, with its own internal heat and magnetic sources thrown in as well.

So, I could be totally wrong in what I said. Just my thoughts on it, nothing more.

People, so many good thoughts and ideas in this thread. I also appreciate the responses and/or conjecture on what I wrote yesterday about the Afghani region and the US region we're concerned about. I have prepared a detailed explanatory response but it's quite long, so I'll only post it if people actually want to read it. Let me know.

Best regards,

Mike

Originally posted by zworld

snip

The pdf says something very interesting. The ETS events that occur in Japan do seem to correlate with events in that area. But so far I havent found anything that addresses whether these ETS events correlate to other EQs around the world.
snip

emphasis mine

We find that the triggered tremor and fault creep can be initiated by distant earthquakes as small as magnitude 5.4 and can persist for several days after the seismic waves have passed. Our observations of prolonged tremor activity provide a clear example of the delayed dynamic triggering of seismic events. Fault creep has been shown to trigger earthquakes10, 11, 12, and we therefore suggest that the dynamic triggering of prolonged fault creep could provide a mechanism for the delayed triggering of earthquakes.

edited to add emphasis

Nature Geoscience

This is referring to ETS being triggered by quakes, I have to wonder if there is a reciprocal relationship back to EQs from ETS. (EDIT: duh, there is is underlined now)

reply to post by Glinda

I think that this is entirely likely and something that should possibly looked at much more closely.

reply to post by onthelookout

Yes, I think that this is a distinct possibility. We do have to take damping into account here though as can be seen from my two part post.

Are there enough damping mechanisms to overcome any amount of possible potential release from the "free floating" energy released by many consecutive earthquakes?

Free Oscillations of the Earth are known to be triggered by megaquakes. I don't know if any research has been done to determine if numerous moderately sized quakes happening in a narrow temporal band can produce the same effect but it is certainly something to consider.

When describing these events to my wife (a non-technically minded person) I used the analogy of a dam to represent a locked fault and water to represent seismic energy released during an earthquake (or ETS for that matter).

Now a dam holding back water is under stress as a result of the weight of the water. A locked fault is in a similar situation in that the potential energy stored in the fault is held back by the friction of the fault. When friction is overcome, a rupture happens and we get an earthquake.

Now imagine a large amount of water suddenly released upstream of the dam and as it rushes to the dam the strain is precipitously increased on the dam. If there are already points weakened by the weight of the water, this sudden increase could cause the dam to burst (friction being overcome). Oddly enough the sudden relaxation of stress could have the same result.

Satellite imagery can be used to pinpoint these weak points thus giving a good idea of the location of potential epicenters. Concurrently with the advances in measuring techniques, so too have computational abilities experienced massive leaps in advancement. Feeding all of this data into advanced simulation software can result is some startlingly accurate models in turn leading to a correspondingly increased chance at accurate forecasting.

Which is what (presumably) lead to this thread in the first place.

I'm watching a 2 hour show called Megaquake 10 on the history channel discussing the possibilities and what would happen during a 10. They're currently talking about the Cascadia Subduction Zone which is the most likely area to produce a 10 in the US.

All I can say is, "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!"

Ahem. Anyhoo. They were saying that when it goes that all you can do is hope nothing comes down on top of you because you won't even be able to walk or move. I felt pretty helpless during the Nisqually quake in Feb 2001 and that was only a 6.8.

So, if there is anyone out there reading this who wonders why people freak when quakes happen and try to further speculate whether a bigger one is coming, etc.(leading to rampant researching on the boards)...it's because it's scary. And if you've ever been in a decent size quake, you have no illusions about how frightening an even bigger one could be.

And...well in the end...we're human. We have loved ones who look up to us for safety & security, and others who love us and don't want us hurt or even worse...gone. It's something that will change you forever, something that you may never recover from psychologically (if devastating enough). Some things you don't walk away from normal.

Sometimes we can get so wrapped up in the research & numbers that we forget the human part of the equation. Being a data analyst, I myself have to be mindful to keep perspective that beyond the numbers and my computer monitor - there is us...the people.

Btw, this isn't a rant or anything. Watching the part about the CSZ & seeing simulations of buildings that I see everyday get crushed...argh...reminded me again about what's REALLY important when SHTF. Everything else pales in comparison. Very sobering for me.

reply to post by onthelookout

You have put that perfectly.

Yes, at the end of the day, it's all about the people. That's been my motivation in studying this topic all along, as doubtless it has been yours and the many others who contribute here. And while I don't live in a quake-prone area, I know enough people who do and some of them weren't even aware of what was possible in their own literal back yards until I let them know.

As Westcoast said a way back, if even one person learns something that will help them take notice and take action that might ultimately save their lives, then it's all worth it.

Mike

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

I just want to express my thanks for this series of posts you've put together. There is so much detail and data available in them, so many concepts that are pushing my own boundaries forward, that my head is spinning. Brilliant work and deeply appreciated. Thank you.

Mike

I absolutely second that Mike... Amazing work everyone... I especially have learnt so much from you all in such a short space of time. Explanations clear, concise and easy to picture with some excellent analogies.

I dont know if this has been posted, but it looks like JPL and the LA EQ watch group arent the only ones freaking out these days. This is from the Canadian gov. and for the first time Im beggining to think in terms of 'any second now'. Its about the latest ETS in the locked portion of the CSZ.

from www.pnsn.org...

This blog is quickly being thrown together now that this next ETS seems to be starting early....

The 2011 ETS was expected to start in late October or early Novemeber based on the normal inter-ETS of 14-15 months. The arrays were to be restarted in early to mid Octorber.... BUT ------ On July 23 a tremor burst near Olympia (which we all thought was a typical short-lived inter-ETS tremor burst) just kept going. We waited for the tremor to die out, but it didn't. First it moved a bit south and then east and then hovered near Olympia until early August. We kept thinking it couldn't be a real ETS. It was too soon and seemed to start way too slowly. Besides much of the tremor was not as strong as we were used to seeing during previous ETS. But, after more than a week of significant tremor we started to panic and contacted the PASSCAL instrument center to see about getting some dataloggers back in the field sooner than originally requested. ....

On Aug 5, when the tremor started clearly moving slowly north we double paniced and made preparations to head to the field ASAP.

OK now me worry.

ON EDIT: ("Its just a hoax, its just a hoax, its just a hoax", he keeps repeating softly as he throws more stuff into his EQ bag by the door).

reply to post by zworld


Oh it gets even better....

That's exactly what went dead quiet yesterday. For the first time since it started back in July...it showed zero yesterday.

reply to post by zworld


Good find zworld....

This bit leaps out

On Aug 5, when the tremor started clearly moving slowly north we double paniced and made preparations to head to the field ASAP

I will forgive them for their spelling of 'panicked'!

Anyhoo, didn't TM point out "we are moving in the wrong direction" in one of the cryptic posts? Seems a bit odd, especially now you found that.

Are the SoCal residents still in TM's alleged window to watch out for?

Hey tmiddlebrook. How abouts an update on what the US gov is seeing in the SoCal area. And are youze guys communicating with the Canadian gov. Talk to us.

ON EDIT: Ive got some really good charts and maps concerning all this stuff but the media center is still suffering a whiteout. Any news on whats happening there.

reply to post by zworld


Hi again zworld... Just looked through that blog you kindly linked and as of Sept 6, they stated

Sep 6, 2011 - This ETS is over. The last burst of tremor seen at the north end of this ETS in BC occurred on Sep 3. It was followed on Sep 4 by a burst back in the south end of Puget Sound but nothing has been seen since then. Thus we declare the ETS over. It lasted from Jul. 23 until Sep. 4, longer than any previous ETS well recorded and processed by us. Besides starting much earlier than expected it started farther south than most previous ones and didn't proceed quite as far north. - A team of 8 are currently in the field recovering all of the AofA instruments and the remaining CAFE ones. Between Sep 6 and 8 over 90 seismic stations will be recovered from the field and preparations made to ship them back to the PASSCAL instrument pool. The data collected for this ETS will not be available for analysis for a week or two but should be an interesting set.

But odd that Onthelookout points out lack of activity. So we have no ETS and nothing popping up on the seismos (unless they are really, really, REALLY small ones)...

Agreed... wish ol' middlebrooke would pop back in... In dire need of an update or two here, if they are legit.

reply to post by zworld


Well just looked at TM's profile and it says they have not logged on since the 14th. Hope they are able to pop their head in here and give some update.

reply to post by Bugglesby


I freaked myself and forgot to read that far. So it was the longest ever, and more south than usual. Im going to try and find data on the southern part of the CSZ and see whats happening there. It could be nothing. Or it could be a precursor that isn't yet decipherable. But whatever it is, it doesnt bode well if the US gov is worried about the southern San Andreas and the Canadian gov is worried about the northern section of the CSZ, because right in the middle of those two is the triple junction which many believe is overdue, unlike the SAF and the Explorer Plate/northern CSZ. And if I can ever get these charts and maps posted i could show people what I mean. This is the most intricate and complex EQ prone area in the world, with plates going this way and that way and pressure at extremes and no EQs for a long time. Its the only subduction zone in the world that hasnt experienced a major EQ in the last 100 years. And all the pressure from other EQs along the ring of fire are squeezing the CSZ like a ripe orange ready to explode.

reply to post by Bugglesby


On page 30 there are a couple of mentions about it from westcoast & berkeleygal about the ETS stopping. Westcoast has been all over these ETS here in the PNW (she even has a thread on it...I'll go find it) -

So Westcoast your a person I'm super-duper interested in hearing your latest thoughts on the sudden quiet. If you have a moment...cuz I'm not really sure how you find time for everything you do.

ETA: Here's her thread on ETS www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by JustMike

Wow! This means so much to me to receive that I cannot properly express myself (and considering how verbose I, is a bit surprising) and I feel quite humbled.

reply to post by onthelookout
This is disturbing when taken into account with the concentrated (seemingly) activity in the 5+ range of magnitudes which were haplenig at the same time.

In widely variously spaced places.

Now that th ETS has stopped, will we see another uptick in a few days as that particular harmonic of seismic activity plays it's way through the lithosphere?

Personal disclaimer:

I have very little formal education. I am (and always have been) largely self-taught. I don't even have a high school diploma but rather only G.E.D. So on paper I'm below average. I don't know if this will color the way in which my posts are though of, but I do want everyone to know this.

What I do have is an insatiable curiosity, an ability to read and quickly assimilate new information and ideas, the capacity for outside the box thinking(probably the norm here at ATS), an intuitive ability of pattern recognition, an almost unconscious ability to see relationships, causes/effects (even very tenuously connected ones), and a pretty good ability to recall things.

If I don't remember something specific I can figure it of by asking good questions (probably the most important trait of a researcher).

I'm not afraid to make mistakes, as those often tmes will allow one to learn more than a success, or to entertain completely absurd ideas.

Right, so, again I want to say thanks to everyone who has found any worth in my work here and am glad to know that my contributing helps, amateur though it is.

6.6 In Japan

USGS

Magnitude 6.6
Date-Time Friday, September 16, 2011 at 19:26:42 UTC
Saturday, September 17, 2011 at 04:26:42 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 40.288°N, 142.727°E
Depth 36.3 km (22.6 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 108 km (67 miles) ESE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
149 km (92 miles) ENE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
177 km (109 miles) ESE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
574 km (356 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.3 km (9.5 miles); depth +/- 4.2 km (2.6 miles)
Parameters NST=447, Nph=447, Dmin=195.9 km, Rmss=0.82 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc0005vv7

Originally posted by jadedANDcynical
reply to post by JustMike


Personal disclaimer:

I have very little formal education. I am (and always have been) largely self-taught. I don't even have a high school diploma but rather only G.E.D. So on paper I'm below average. I don't know if this will color the way in which my posts are though of, but I do want everyone to know this.

Dude. Our broken-down, outdated school systems don't tell me what kind of person you are. Or how brilliant you are. I would even argue that it hinders it. Seeing how you've contributed on this thread? How you respectfully treat other members? You're a star. And don't ever let anyone make you feel otherwise.