New ATS Member Claiming To Have Important Warning/Information. You Be The Judge...

... last time on this post (vignette of previous post containing highlights runs)

and now...

reply to post by crazydaisy

Some acoustic research for you:

Identification of earthquake precursors in the hydrogeochemical and geoacoustic data for the Kamchatka peninsula by flicker-noise spectroscopy

A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a system reconfiguration (preparation) at different time and space scales. A nonstationarity factor introduced within the framework of flicker-noise spectroscopy, a statistical physics approach to the analysis of time series, is used as the dimensionless criterion for detecting qualitative (precursory) changes within relatively short time intervals in arbitrary signals.

The report covers a wide variety of techniques and possible target areas of study, including animal behavior.

We assume that a large earthquake may be preceded by a system reconfiguration (preparation) at different time and space scales, which manifests itself in qualitative changes of various signals within relatively short time intervals. For example, such anomalous hydrogeochemical signals may be observed months to weeks before the impending earthquake, anomalous geoacoustic emissions - only days prior to the event, and anomalous behavior of animals - only hours before the catastrophe.

That's it for me for now folks, my kids are clamoring to watch a movie so I have to give up my main computer for a while. Will be ale to read and post from my iPhone, but some capabilities are limited.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


Thanks for the information,
have to read it several times
to wrap my head around it.
Very interesting! Taking the
day off so I have lots of time
for reading today.

Hope the kids enjoy the
movie - might watch one
myself tonight.

Originally posted by jadedANDcynical

Are there any reports of other fissures opening up in unexpected places?

I don't know about unexpected, and you probably know this already, but there are fissures wherever the plates are moving in opposite directions. And thats where volcanoes and lava flows occur most often. The fissure between the Juan de Fuca (and Gorda Plates) and the Pacific plate is a good example. Its also why there could be a new volcano forming in the Fiji region (thats just a hunch though)

However, when I said the plates were heating up, I was referring to the boundaries that are locked, and the pressure being exerted. I dont know if this would affect sea temps, but it would affect the brittleness of the rock in these locked areas, allowing for more movement and EQs. It would also allow for more slow slip EQs, where the downdip section heats up and melts.

Whether the actual plates themselves are heating up would be a whole other science that I havent researched, but I suspect they are. I wonder if there's a way to measure this.

westcoast, I think the SoCal swarm has started up again, especially south of Barstow. More small EQs in the last 24 hours than all of last week. I think Im reading the maps right anyway.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


Thank you for taking a moment to respond to me and for your wise counsel. I admit to being way out of depth here - understanding on a broad scale but sometimes lacking the foundations!

Even if nothing further comes of this, I too am extremely proud to have played some very small part. I am astounded by the ability and knowledge of the contributors to this thread. And how relevant information has been placed on the table, without the scaremongering that is so apparent in most other things I have read.

To ALL participants, you guys are fab!

Originally posted by jadedANDcynical
Identification of earthquake precursors in the hydrogeochemical and geoacoustic data for the Kamchatka peninsula by flicker-noise spectroscopy

Right on J&C. Too bad you're not a part of the USGS or JPL, cause that's the direction they need to take. The Russians are way ahead of the curve on EQ predicting. But this kind of research takes alot of field work and alot of people, which is why the US lags behind. We want to use expensive computers and expensive satelites and expensive equipment and very few people. Unfortunately, alot of the stuff that the Russians are finding promising cant be done from space.

From the report my favorite parts;

The localized changes in electric and magnetic fields that reportedly accompany some seismic events span a wide range of frequencies, including ULF, VLF, ELF and RF fields, and were observed in the time frame from 2-3 years to dozens of minutes prior to an earthquake.

Seismic precursory signals encompass foreshocks that typically take place less than 30 days before the main shock and high-frequency (acoustic emission) and very low-frequency precursory signals that are not detected by conventional seismographs

Even if we were only able to predict dozens of minutes ahead, my god, how many lives would be saved. Thank god someones looking into this stuff.

Another thing about the report is that it has incredible citations, chock full. Again, J&C, good score and thank you.

reply to post by JustMike


Started looking at the latest EQ list at www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/index.php and I considered your theory but didn't notice any 180 stuff. What did stand out like a sore thumb is the fact that 90% of the EQs on the list occur between 35 N and 45 N. Any importance?

ON EDIT: And wouldnt you know it. The triple junction part of the CSZ is 40 N. Hmmmmmm.

reply to post by JustMike

I think it's partly to do with harmonics of some kind. Or resonance, if you will. A poor analogy would be that if you take a crystal wine glass and rub the rim you can make it ring -- if you use the right amount of pressure and rub it in just the right way. Oddly, exerting less pressure but applying the "rub" in a very precise way can make the glass ring more than heavier pressure will if applied in a slightly-less-than-right way, if you follow.

Harmonics are a component of resonance and are tied in with overtones. Musicians use them to produce ringing tones especially on stringed instruments, the opening to Metallica's "Fade to Black" makes use of harmonics.

Multiples of the fundamental frequency are also called harmonics. The fundamental frequency is the first harmonic, the second harmonic corresponds to the first overtone,the third harmonic is the second overtone, and so on.

Musical instruments produce a series of overtones (or higher harmonics) superimposed on the fundamental frequency. This causes the sounds produced by these different sources to be distinguishable.

I took a look at the post you linked regarding the link between the Kuril Island and North Atlantic eatthquakes and my mind immediately pictured rotating the globe 90 degrees until the earthquakes are now on tangent to the edge of the globe and with the the pole running perpendicular to the equator (I hope this makes sense).

Now using the intersection of the axis and the equator as a center point and the globe as a circle rather than the surface of a sphere, we describe and arc between the two earthquakes that runs through approximately 90 degrees. The same can be done wry any other "180 degree" earthquake paring.

In an earlier post mentioned 30, 60, & 90 degree segments of a circle, you can also divide the circumference of a circle into those gradations so these could be considered geometric harmonics.

What if this harmonInc aspect of resonance has something to do with which quakes produce triggered quakes?




Edit to add this absurdity:
We've got this:

5.4
Date-Time
Saturday, September 17, 2011 at 08:59:30 UTC
Saturday, September 17, 2011 at 08:59:30 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
48.906°N, 154.794°E
Depth
59.1 km (36.7 miles)
Region
KURIL ISLANDS
Distances
219 km (136 miles) SSW of Severo-Kuril'sk, Kuril Islands, Russia
531 km (329 miles) SSW of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, Russia
664 km (412 miles) NE of Kuril'sk, Kuril Islands
1915 km (1189 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan

USGS

So could we expect something around 49, N & 25, W in the next few days of around mid mag 5?
(here's that fearlessness of mistakes for you z)

Ok,what the hell,I'm throwing this out there unless I missed the boat on it.
Expansion.
Now,stay with me as I show a few things to show you where I'm going .

Well,I was,but can't upload any pictures. Damn,ATS,what is up with that??

But ,if you look at the pacific "ring of fire",The movement of that is towards the Continents,away from the center of the pacific plate.Japan has taken the brunt of it,with the most movement.Brazil also and New Zealand and the Aleutians.
The Cascades are starting,I would say,foreshocks and soon California.
It's moving right around the circle.
And everyone seems to ignore what is in the middle of all that.
The Hawaiian Islands,the"pimple " in the middle of the ring of fire.
The whole pacific plate is moving away from that,expanding.

THE EMPIRICAL MODEL Consider for a moment what is taught in every high school and university, that the Earth developed in 4.6 billion years, turning at its current size, with a supercontinent and continental drift. The concept of expansion will challenge many readers' knowledge of the Earth's development. Yet, even the look of today's Earth suggests a very different course of development. Now with a live model of expansion and an approach that rationalises the planet's features, readers may re-evaluate the tenets of traditional thought.

When a spherical object expands radially, any object on its surface will maintain its position. The object does not move laterally on the surface. It maintains position naturally because it has a neutral tangent point which follows a conceptual radial line to the centre of the sphere. The tangent point does not move from this centre line during expansion and thus prevents the object from moving. Expansion merely extends the radial line and the object remains anchored in place; the object is simply transported on the expanding surface, along the radial line.

www.wincom.net...
BTW: I got this link from puterman,from this thread that you all should know well.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

It's just something I have been thinking about for awhile.
Call me crazy.

So,you ask,how could the earth expand??
Well here are some hypothesis on that in relation to newly discovered "ocean" beneath the earth's crust.

HOW CAN THE EARTH EXPAND? In the process of creating the live model, the primary concern was not how the Earth could expand. An in-depth analysis of the physics was beyond the scope of this project. However, a general overview is appropriate. Mentioned for the interested reader is the book Environment of Violence Ref 11 and its successor Expanding Geospheres Ref 12. Author C. Warren Hunt, in association with Lorence G. Collins and E. A. Skobelin, a leading Russian geologist, promotes new insights consistent with carbide-hydride systematics. Hunt's general concern is the heat-induced chemical reaction and expansion potential of inorganic matter. As a field engineer he staunchly opposes the drift theory and enhances an expansion concept which parallels S. Warren Carey's. Vladimir N. Larin's revolutionary idea of hydrogen systematics came so close to Hunt`s own ideas that Hunt translated his Hydridic Earth Ref 13. The book, according to a reviewer, promotes to geologists and geophysicists the riches of a Russian scientific literature that will greatly enlarge the scope of Western thinking. Another author sympathetic to the concept of catastrophic events is Derek Ager. Periodic upheaval is his theme. This stratigraphicus extraordinaire is, in The New Catastrophism Ref 14, confused by the inadequacy of geological record. His experience tells him that the stones are constantly lying to us. Perhaps the stones tell the truth if regarded from a different angle. A particularly interesting possibility for the Earth's expansion potential is Dr. Hugh Owen's plasma core.

www.wincom.net...

Earthquakes Reveal "Ocean" Wysession and former graduate student Jesse Lawrence discovered the damp spot by observing how seismic waves from distant earthquakes pass through Earth's mantle. The wet zone, which runs from Indonesia to the northern tip of Russia, showed up as an area of relatively weak rock, causing the seismic waves to lose strength much more rapidly than elsewhere (see map of Asia.) The water got there by the process of plate tectonics, in which sections of the Earth's crust shift. This process caused the ocean bottom to be pulled beneath continental plates all around the Pacific Rim. Normally, Earth's internal heat bakes the water out of the rocks before it gets more than 60 miles (100 kilometers) deep. The water then escapes upward as volcanic gas.

news.nationalgeographic.com...

BTW,what is going on with ats and uploading images????

Hey guys, checking in. I'll have to catch up on what you've all been working on later...

Right now, I just wanted to point out that there doesn't seem to have been any/many EQs worldwide in at least a few hours. I've had my eye on USGS, and right now, all I see is bunch of yellow dots (past week) with a few blue dots (past 24hrs) scattered in.

Seems strange for the earth to be quiet... am I working with bad data or poor judgement here? Why no quakes?

reply to post by DamaSan


The quiet before the storm?

reply to post by kdog1982

Exactly what I'm afraid of. Locked plates...? You seeing the same data?

Hope I'm foolish and wrong...

reply to post by DamaSan


Yep,seeing it,but more concerned about up north from there.
Just waiting and watching.

There was a swarm of

reply to post by DamaSan


I noticed that last night, and talked myself out of mentioning it. only 1-2 quakes in Ca over 2.2 in a 24 hour period, Friday & none of that was over a 2.8. Nothing "Close" to home, Fresno... and Zero at long valley. but then today I noticed everything seemed to reeeeaaaaly slow down. not sure how "out of the ordinary" it all is... but it got my attention.

Hi everyone,

I still need to have 2nd Java and then read back through the latest posts before replying to them, but meanwhile I'd like to give a bit of info about the "what's happened to ATS media?" queries that I've seen here. I did a search in the ATS Board Business and Questions forum and in a thread on the subject I found an informative post by SO (Bill -- the site owner), which I'll quote here and hope the mods won't can me for doing so. (Please mods -- I'm just trying to spread the word from SO to members):

Originally posted by SkepticOverlord
We're working on a new solution for member picture/image uploads as the media center code has become unsustainable for a list of growing reasons.

The new code is installed and being tested, and we're ironing on a few bugs, so please be patient, it will be worth the wait.

It will be tightly integrated with the discussion board, and you'll be able to...

Upload images from the reply or new thread form...

Upload an image directly from the account page for your avatar or mini-profile background...

Upload images from the "tools" menu...

Be able to resize your images when uploading...

All with no additional log-ins.

I recall chatting to Bill about the ATS media problems some months ago (i.e. in ATS chat) and he said back then that things were a real mess there and he'd have to do a lot of work on it. Being a very pro-active guy and one who listens to members, I'm sure that he will give us exactly what he's promised in the message above. So while there is a temporary problem, it's not only being fixed, things in ATS media will be far better than before.

We need to bear in mind that this site is not only unique in its vast range of content and membership size within the genre, it's also custom built. Down through the years ATS has been running it's gone through several changes in terms of what members can do and what's offered to us and as it is part of the Admin's ongoing philosophy to continue improving in that regard, we'll get times like this when features will get upgraded.

Please note that he says "the new code is installed and being tested..." so they're on it, things are being done, and we'll all benefit from it when they release the upgraded version. In the meantime I suppose we can use external linking for images if need be.

ETA: Just seeing if I can upload a linked image. This one is a USGS map, which shows a curious and probably meaningless anomaly but one which I've been puzzling over. Here we go:

SOURCE: USGS, dated as shown. Red line added by me.

Yep, that worked. So, just for now, I guess we can go that way. This one's via image shack but there are plenty of others available.

Mike

reply to post by zworld

and especially these observations:

I kinda suspect there are many connections within and on the earth that we dont know about. I liken it to acupuncture. Touch one thing and it affects somewhere else. [...] Now, I dont know what to make of it, but the only way we'll ever know about these connections is through documenting them and then seeing if patterns emerge.

Thank you for yout comments. I agree -- in fact I'd bet anything that there are many connections we don't know about and perhaps haven't even suspected or hypothesized yet. And as you say, documenting what we observe and looking for patterns is essential.

Also, I feel that sometimes the actual lack of any readily-discernible pattern may be of significance as well. When things happen with our planet and we can't see any possible direct cause-and-effect relationship, it means that we need to look deeper or further afield: the Butterfly in Beijing effect, perhaps -- or even something else.

reply to post by Bugglesby

Thank you also for your comments. I'd especially like to address the following:

[...] I wonder why the magic 3 days? Why should energy take 3 days to propagate through the lithosphere? If that's only around 100km thick, maybe you could check to see if the earthquakes you 'predicted' (that's not a derogatory comment Mike) were within 100km depth? May help add to your theory.

I haven't the faintest idea why up to a maximum of 3 days seems to be the general time frame. Perhaps that are forms of energy ("waves") that move that slowly, or perhaps the initial energy from the first quake reaches the 180-degree-distant region in a matter of minutes (as e.g. P waves do), but the reaction to them takes up to three days for some reason. I've puzzled over it for a long time and I'm not sure.

The matter of depth is something that would have to be studied further; from memory, most I observed were far less than 100 km deep, though. Good point and worth following up on.

A note about having "predicted" in quotes: no offense taken. But just to clarify, if a statement about a future quake gives details of time frame, location and (preferably) magnitude, then it is a prediction -- if an event of that magnitude would not be expected to occur in that time frame and location purely by chance anyway. So, as that region does not routinely get mag 5-plus quakes on average every three days (and that fact can readily be checked through quake databases), then the prediction is valid.

However, as I've said in that other thread more than once, some people/websites make predictions that are not worthy of the name, because they "predict" (eg) mag 3-range quakes for places like southern California within a time frame of weeks -- which as anyone knows who studies these things even a little, are almost bound to happen.

This is why I have several "no hit" results for my own predictions posted -- because I don't make "pseudo" predictions for events that are pretty well guaranteed to occur. I expect to be wrong sometimes and where that happens I don't mind saying so. (In fact, there are times when I've been very glad I was wrong.) Here's an example where I post a declaration of "no hit" for a prediction I'd made.

Something I'd like to add...

Just in the past few pages we have had positive, valued and supportive input from yourself (ie Bugglesby), along with berkeleygal, Cherryontop, CLPrime, crazydaisy, DamaSan, Glinda, Honor93, jadedANDcynical, jazkaat, kdog, komodo, megabogie, onthelookout, relyt, Robin Marks, SonoftheSun, StealthyKat, Westcoast and zworld. That's pretty impressive for a thread that is -- errrm -- where it is. [My sincere apologies if I missed any of our valued contributors!]

Why is this? I feel it's because we all know what the ultimate goal is. By whatever means and never mind who does it, we want to see earthquake prediction as a solid and accepted reality. It's already possible -- or at least, there is good evidence for it -- but it's not yet refined enough. Even if we and others of like mind are only taking baby steps towards that goal, at least we're trying. Whatever "TM" was trying to tell us, it is leading us in the right direction and given us some new insights and that makes his input and our time in this thread well worthwhile.

Best regards,

Mike

Well, TM hasn't logged in for 4 days now and I can only speculate as to why this must be. However, I think if he is real that he would be proud to see the conversation he has started. He must feel pretty high and mighty to think that he has brought SO much good information to the forefront and with such great minds to be able to put it all together.

At what point do we start to get an Earthquake watch/warning system in place. They are obviously somewhat predictable. Just like tornadoes have the watch/warning to save lives why can't EQ's? I know I have been under a tornado watch several times and no tornado has happened but, I was aware and alert for the times that they did.

I don't know how to reply after I start typing so for Justmike - Maybe it takes three days for the harmonic to reach the perfect "humming" point in your 180 degrees theory. When you start to rub a wine glass to make it hum you must complete a few circle first. The first thing you notice is a vibration in your finger, then you notice the noise is choppy but starting, then you have the hum. So maybe it goes through the same process and works itself up to the perfect hum for a EQ. Just a thought.