Solar Activity Watch 2011

I see a pretty big solar flare and possible CME on the far side of the sun right now yet nothing reported on SpaceWeather.com or any of the monitors.

It looks pretty big. Like another X-Class flare but not facing us.

By the way, I see this on my SOHO sun monitoring screensaver that gets the latest images every time it activates. I suspect we'll hear about it within the next few hours.

You can see what I'm talking about if you look at this page within the next hour or so.
SOHO real-time image LINK

Ok, here is the link to one of the pics:

Hey guys,
i'm new here ( new account like ) , but had been reading this solar watch thread and so then one thing passed on my mind.
one x-48 like pointed to the earth, like that 1859 ( this is the correct date?) , can shutdown an airplane in mid air?

reply to post by pdomicioex

No, not likely.
However it could subject the passengers and crew to increased radiation exposure and interfere with radio communications for a while.

reply to post by Phage


thanks for your replay
it's a good thing to know, but anyway without radio it can be a hell of accidents, we had several flight accidents last 2 years WITH radio... (i'm from brazil just to you know how bad it is, today we closed a air company because of a accident)

hehe but this is a good one , at least i know now that i will not die in a airplane just because a solar flare exploded the engine.


i will be here reading the posts,those solar flares are beautiful

Originally posted by pdomicioex
Hey guys,
i'm new here ( new account like ) , but had been reading this solar watch thread and so then one thing passed on my mind.
one x-48 like pointed to the earth, like that 1859 ( this is the correct date?) , can shutdown an airplane in mid air?

Yes, you got the date correct. 1859
Go to Wikipedia for research: Carrington Event - September 1859
------------
There is a scientist in the UK who is predicting the weather on the Earth by simply looking
at our sun all the time. - Direct Relation - His name is Piers Corbyn.
Weatheraction.com

PDF explanation - Looks good to me.
Sun In Control OF Our Weather On Earth

Not a huge one, but an earth directed solar flare and CME with it.

"EARTH-DIRECTED FLARE: This morning at 0150 UT, sunspot 1283 produced an M5.3-class solar flare. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the flash of extreme UV radiation. Because of the sunspot's central location on the solar disk, the eruption was Earth-directed and a CME might be heading our way. Stay tuned for updates."

spaceweather.com...

reply to post by lasertaglover

X-flare from ssregion 11283.
Still waiting for update to see if there was a CME involved. If so it will probably be earth directed according to it's position.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/cf9c17cbfd5a.gif[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6ad3ebb63285.png[/atsimg]

reply to post by intergalactic fire


The problem was that there were several plasma clouds around the same time making it difficult to verify, and space weather is oftentimes slower in reporting. However it does indeed look a cme is on its way.

www.solarham.com...

reply to post by lasertaglover

Yes, it's still waiting on the data for the X-flare.

The M-flare earlier had an almost full halo CME

| pa | da | v | dv | minv | maxv | halo?
|313| 168| 0628| 0128| 0295| 0821| II
www.sidc.oma.be...

pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)
da: angular width (degrees),
v: median velocity (km/s)
dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME
mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME
maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME
halo?: II if da>90, III if da>180, IV if da>270, indicating potential halo/partial halo CME

reply to post by intergalactic fire

Halo II, greater than 90º.
A full halo would be 360º

reply to post by Phage


I thought a full halo would be 180?
damn i have to get back to pre-school or learn from my previous posts
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by intergalactic fire

This is a full halo: 360º
sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov...

reply to post by Phage


That's a beauty...
You have any data from that time on sunspot positions and magnetic storms?

reply to post by intergalactic fire

Just some pretty raw data.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

I don't know off hand where you could get the sunspot data.

reply to post by Phage


Is this of any use????
www.tesis.lebedev.ru...

reply to post by steaming

He was looking for data from 2000. That archive doesn't go there unfortunately.

It's impressive,
from sept. 5th on it's if as the sun has been convulsing.
(flares one after another)
Sun giving birth :







Coronal holes (1) flares (3)
>Green alert

Coronal mass ejections (2)
>Red alert

M and X class
>Red alert

(Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

www.solen.info...
sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov...

~

reply to post by Phage


Thanks for that.
I will search for some more data(speed, density and such) and try to understand and learn more from this.
Any info is always welcome.

Maybe you can answer this: that full halo means earth got the full blast but there was only a minor geomagn storm in the following days. So it depends more on the density of the cloud, cme, than it's direction?
The last major storm( last month) was a partial halo, yet the effects where much stronger than the one in feb 2000.

And,
the density of a cme has nothing to do with the strength of a solar flare, as they are 2 individual events?

What i actually want to know is why there are sometimes cme's after solar flares and why not? and what causes the strength of a cme?

reply to post by intergalactic fire

What i actually want to know is why there are sometimes cme's after solar flares and why not? and what causes the strength of a cme?

You aren't the only one! There is a lot of energy being devoted to learning the answers to that question.

The intensity of the geomagnetic activity depends on several things; the speed of the CME, the density, and the magnetic configuration and strength (mostly the Bz component).

i dont know if anyone is interested...but here in australia about 40 minutes ago we lost our pay tv channels and a message saying solar interference from the sun. was about for about 10 minutes.