Solar Activity Watch 2011

Space Weather News for Oct. 7, 2011 spaceweather.com... DRACONID METEOR SHOWER: On Saturday, October 8th, Earth will pass through a network of dusty filaments shed by Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. Forecasters expect the encounter to produce anywhere from a few dozen to a thousand meteors per hour visible mainly over Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. The meteors will stream from the northern constellation Draco--hence their name, the "Draconids." Check spaceweather.com... for full coverage of the event including observing times and a live audio stream from a meteor radar.

reply to post by crazydaisy


Anyone have anything to say about this next sunspot that's coming around? It looks pretty big...

reply to post by JaqueFresco


You mean 1314?
www.solarmonitor.org...

reply to post by intergalactic fire


Yes..

Well,the next one is 11313.

Region Flare Probabilities (%) Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class 11309 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0) 11311 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0) 11312 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0) 11313 Dai 38(40) 11(5) 2(0)11314 Cho 15(20) 2(5) 1(0) 11315 Dao 23(20) 6(5) 0(0) 11316 Dai 38(30) 11(5) 2(0) 11317 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0) NOTE: Values in brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page. Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research. Home Forecast Search News Credits GOES X-rays Protons Electrons ACE Plasma B Field SDO/EVE 3 Day 6 Hour Geo-Mag Now-cast Events HEK SolarSoft SWPC MM MotD IDL

11313 will be capable of producing a X class flare.

www.solarmonitor.org...




www.raben.com...

reply to post by kdog1982

11313 will be capable of producing a X class flare.

A 2% chance in the next 24 hours.

All of the current regions have alpha or beta configurations. Pretty stable stuff.

reply to post by Phage


Well,good then.
Nothing to worry about.

reply to post by JaqueFresco


I think more interesting will be region 1316.

According to www.solen.info...

Regions 11316 and S1267 have developed further with both becoming capable of producing minor M class flares. Flare activity has increased significantly today because of the development in these two regions.

They also mention the region has now a beta-gamma-delta configuration.

Check the pics how it has changed since yesterday.

Space Weather News for Oct. 14, 2011 spaceweather.com... ROSAT RE-ENTRY: The ROSAT X-ray observatory, launched in 1990 by NASA and managed for years by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), will return to Earth within the next two weeks. Current best estimates place the re-entry between Oct. 22nd and 24th over an unknown part of Earth. ROSAT will produce a spectacular fireball when it re-enters, but not all of the satellite will disintegrate. According to the DLR, heat-resistant fragments as massive as 1.7 tons could reach Earth's surface. Check spaceweather.com... for more information.

Spaceweather.com


And here we go again.

reply to post by crazydaisy


I heard on CNN last night that this thing could hit anywhere from South America to Canada

Heads up!

fragments as massive as 1.7 tons

reply to post by berkeleygal



I take it that means certain fragments will weight 1.7 tons each.

Ultraviolet light shone on cold winter conundrum

The recent revelations on the Sun's ultraviolet variability come from a Nasa satellite called the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE), launched in 2003.
Among its instruments is the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM), which analyses the Sun's output at frequencies in the infrared, visible and ultraviolet parts of the spectrum.
SIM is giving scientists a detailed picture of how the Sun's ultraviolet emissions vary over its regular 11-year cycle of waxing and waning energy

The results of the modelling re-inforce the idea that the UV variations affect winter weather across the region; and they indicate how it may happen.

UV is absorbed in the stratosphere, the upper atmosphere, by ozone. So in the quiet bit of the solar cycle, when there is less UV to absorb, the stratosphere is relatively cooler. The Hadley Centre model shows that the effects of this percolate down through the atmosphere, changing wind speeds, including the jet stream that circles the globe above Europe, North America and Russia.

Dr Scaife emphasises that ultraviolet emissions are not the sole reason why winter temperatures vary. But understanding the UV link may improve meteorologists' capacity to predict winter weather accurately.

"Assuming these new satellite data are correct... then as the 11-year solar cycle is predictable, it's going to contribute some predictability for European and indeed UK weather," he said.

More
Recent cold winters that brought chaos to the UK and other places in northern Europe may have their roots in the Sun's varying ultraviolet emissions

Been a little while since we had a flare, but this one was not facing us:

SOLAR FLARE: This morning at 0325 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected an M1.6-class solar flare, the first significant eruption in days. Because the blast site was located on the sun's northeastern limb, the flare was not Earth-directed.

spaceweather.com...

THE DECAY OF ROSAT: The doomed ROSAT X-ray space telescope continues to descend toward Earth. Multiple experts agree that re-entry should occur on Oct. 23rd, with most favoring the early hours of the day. Decay time uncertainties exceed 8 hours, so it is still impossible to say exactly where ROSAT will disintegrate.

Spaceweather.com


Seems we have a date now for reentry.

Interesting region in the east.
1324 has produced several C-class flares and could produce an M-class flare.
It has a B-G magnetic structure.
The region contains 26 sunspots!


The first region i notice this year with that many spots.
Worth following in the next week.

Another region that might cause some activity is R 1319 that also has a B-G structure and contains 16 spots.
The region will be turning out of view in the next couple of days.

Solar activity report NOAA, oct 19

Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (20-22 October) with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1319 (N10W53) and 1324.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1324 (N12E55) produced three C-class events, the largest a C5 at 19/0455Z. The region has grown significantly in area and is considered an Fkc-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Solar Wind Prediction
New tool from NOAA based on the WSA model of the solar wind and CME-predictions(the turning model you all know)
This one is used to predict any geomagnetic storms from solar activity.

Ambient based model
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Shown above is the most recent run of the ‘Ambient’ version of the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model of the solar wind.
The sun constantly emanates an outward wind referred to as the solar wind. The sun's 27 day rotation (as seen from Earth) imparts a spiral appearance to structures in the solar wind. Even on a ‘fair weather’ day, there are variations in the density and speed of this wind. Knowing when these wind and density structures will arrive in advance is important because they produce geomagnetic storms and can pump up the Earth's radiation belts, creating problems for satellites.

CME-based model
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Shown above is the most recent run of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or “storm” version of the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model of the solar wind.
While the sun constantly emanates an outward wind referred to as the solar wind (seen in the ‘Ambient’ model), at irregular intervals major eruptions originating at the Sun are propelled out with the solar wind.
Variations in the density and speed in these storms is much more dramatic than on a “fair-weather” day.
Knowing when these wind and density structures will arrive in advance is important because they produce geomagnetic storms and can pump up the Earth’s radiation belts, creating problems for satellites.
While the storm model is useful, even during fair-weather days there is something interesting happening.

On the iswa website you can check out all these models and many others
iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080...

reply to post by intergalactic fire


Cool!
Thanks for the new links.

aurora's are being seen as far south as OHIO in the US from being hit by a CME as reported by spaceweather.com

im hoping this is the correct forum for posting as i am new here, but have lurked for a long time.
im in southern ontario and i cant see from where i am in a city

Kinda cool and worth a mention:

"SUNSET CONJUNCTION: When the sun goes down tonight, look west into the twilight. Venus and Mercury are in conjunction less than 3 degrees apart. Binoculars may be required to see Mercury shining alongside the much-brighter Venus. A 2% crescent Moon is there, too, but only black-belt observers will find it in the glowing sky just below Mercury..."

spaceweather.com...

reply to post by lasertaglover


Yeah, looking at this pic, it was kinda cool:



by: David Marshall

Image taken:

Oct. 27, 2011

Location:

Cave Hill, St. Michael, Barbados

spaceweather.com...

spaceweather.com...