Solar Activity Watch 2011

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The sun has been quiet for the last weeks, but she is waking up again.
There will be some more solar activity in the coming days. There are new complex sunspots rotating into view and it would be rather interesting to follow their progress, 11260 and 11261

Region 11260 is showing some activity with C-class flares and a minor M-class flare
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Region 11261: this is a complex and compact region which has M class flare potential. Two magnetic delta structures are evident.
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overall view A304_211_171
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movie of region 11260 causing the M-flare
sdowww.lmsal.com...
sdowww.lmsal.com...

also region 11262 looks interesting to follow as it has a magnetic beta-gamma-delta structure

Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1260 N18E30 357 0110 Dsi 10 15 Beta-Gamma
1261 N15E60 327 0250 Dko 08 05 Beta
1262 N16W38 066 0020 Dso 10 04 Beta-Gamma-Delta

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

more to come

NOAA 1260 increased its sunspot area and spot count slightly while maintaining a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. It continues to display dynamic bright H-alpha plage but only managed to be the source of C-class events during the past 24 hour period. The largest C-class event was a C5.3 at 07/28/12:12 UT. The Major Flare Watch will be in effect for at least another 24 hour period. An event =, > M5 is still possible.

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www.spaceweather.com...
www.spaceweather.com...

An M9.3 Flare was recorded on 30 july at 02:09 from sunspot region 11261, there was no CME observed from this event.
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Movie1 of this event

movie2

STRONG FLARE: Sunspot AR1261 unleashed a brief but strong M9-class solar flare on July 30th at 0209 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash
Because of its brevity, the eruption did not hurl a substantial cloud of material toward Earth. No CME is visible in SOHO coronagraphs. The eruption was no geoeffective, although duture eruptions could be as the active region continues to turn toward Earth.:

www.spaceweather.com...

Originally posted by intergalactic fire

NOAA 1260 increased its sunspot area and spot count slightly while maintaining a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. It continues to display dynamic bright H-alpha plage but only managed to be the source of C-class events during the past 24 hour period. The largest C-class event was a C5.3 at 07/28/12:12 UT. The Major Flare Watch will be in effect for at least another 24 hour period. An event =, > M5 is still possible.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f032cd460f36.png[/atsimg]
www.spaceweather.com...
www.spaceweather.com...

edit on 28-7-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)

the aurora,,time close?? velocity times dist. etc,,, ???

reply to post by BobAthome

you are saying??

Region 1260 decayed significantly and was mostly quiet.
1261 developed significantly during the past 24 hour period and was very active. 1261 was the source of numerous C-class events and a major very impulsive M9.3 event. 1261 added numerous new spots forming an unusual circular pattern with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.

forecast from NOAA:

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with the chance for M-class flares

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active from 31 July to 01 August due to effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 August.

Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 45/45/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Solar Region Summary

Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1260 N19W09 358 0330 Ehi 12 12 Beta
1261 N17E22 327 0350 Dkc 10 23 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1263 N18E48 301 0470 Dhi 09 12 Beta
1264 S29E20 329 0010 Axx 01 02 Alpha
1265 N18W41 030 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Still 3 active regions on the solar corona
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Solar activity is expected to be predominately low, with a chance for an M-class x-ray event from
Region 11260 and Region 11261 for the next three days (August 01-03)
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Region 11261 has many spots with a high degree of polarity intermixing and several small magnetic delta structures.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/217115e67556.jpg[/atsimg]
Region 11263 increased in complexity due to the development of opposite polarity spots in the northern part of the trailing penumbra. This region could produce a major flare, maybe even an X class flare

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/bfd1c22bd983.jpg[/atsimg]
pink is negative polarity and blue-green is positive polarity

new M-flare from ssregion 11261
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Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1260 N18W36 358 0300 Eho 12 16 Beta
1261 N16W08 330 0350 Fkc 16 50 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1263 N17E21 301 0460 Dki 09 23 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1265 N17W67 030 0010 Axx 02 01 Alpha

2 new M-flares
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First flare coming from 11261
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The flares could be associated with an earth direct cme

second flare from region 11263
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and.. number three!

yo, fire.. please hook me up with your best solar and teerrestrial satellite info.. a few links would be awesome. you really know your #. you know what to look for eh?

Wow a double M flare..
havent seen that in both for quite some time..
Cool

Region 11261 produced a major M6.0 long duration event peaking at 13:48 UTC. What appears to be another earthbound CME was visible as early as 13:55 UTC in STEREO images
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6 minutes event
watch the events captured by GOES
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
and SDO
sdowww.lmsal.com...

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sdowww.lmsal.com...
sdowww.lmsal.com...

watching it in helioviewer as I type.. it launched an amazing cme much like the last big wierd cme burst a few weeks ago.. or a month ago.. what eva..

2 days summary:

Activity Level: HIGH, 4 M- and 8 C-class flares in past two days

Most Active Region:NOAA 11261, 3 M-class and 6 C-class flares

Region most likely to flare: NOAA 11261 -- Probabilities: X(3%) M(20%) C(41%)

Cactus movie from the full Halo CME 2011/08/03 13:47 UTC
www.sidc.oma.be...
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11261 has a strong magnetic delta structure in the central penumbra. An elongated negative polarity umbra has positive polarity neighboring spots both to the north and south. There's virtually no umbral separation in the northernpart of the magnetic delta, thus creating very strong gradients. As long as this structure remains the region will continue to produce major flares.
The region was the source of a major M9.3 event at 03:57 UTC on August 4 (associated with a fast full halo CME)

Region 11263 changed with the leader spot becoming the largest spot as the trailing penumbra fragmented into smaller penumbrae. There's still a magnetic delta structure in a trailing penumbra. A major flare is possible.

August 2: An Earth directed CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images after the LDE in region 11261 peaking at 06:19 UTC. This CME will likely reach Earth sometime after 09h UTC on August 4.

August 3: A full halo CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images following the M6 event in region 11261 at 13:48 UTC. The CME coudl reach Earth on August 5.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on August 4. A CME impact is likely during the latter half of the day with a possibility of active to major storm conditions. Another CME impact is likely on August 5 (related to M6 flare). A large CME associated with the M9 event on August 4 will likely reach Earth on August 6 and cause active to major geomagnetic storming.

full screen for justice

reply to post by BornParadox


I was just checking that
thanks for adding

reply to post by BornParadox


You can also download that program, its a bit faster than the online version and easier to use imo.
download link
jhelioviewer.org...
but maybe you already knew that

was this the one