Solar Activity Watch 2011

reply to post by bellagirl


Maybe this is related to the latest X1.8 flare.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
video


www.ips.gov.au...

New M6.7 flare
GOES 1-min X-rays
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

CERN confirms: Cosmic rays have more effect on the climate than manmade CO2

CERN confirms Danish theory on global warming
www.mrctv.org...
Cosmic rays may drive climate
iceagenow.info...
CLOUD Project

In 1998 Jasper Kirkby at the CERN particle physics lab in Geneva proposed an experiment called CLOUD to investigate the possible role of cosmic rays in atmospheric chemistry. The idea was to use a beam of accelerated particles to simulate the cosmic rays, and to look for aerosols produced in a reaction chamber containing air and trace gases.

In 2005 they found a mechanism that cosmic rays can help the production of clouds

The data revealed that electrons released in the air by cosmic rays act as catalysts. They significantly accelerate the formation of stable, ultra-small clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules which are building blocks for the cloud condensation nuclei.

Jasper Kirkby 2011

"We’ve found that cosmic rays significantly enhance the formation of aerosol particles in the mid troposphere and above. These aerosols can eventually grow into the seeds for clouds. However, we’ve found that the vapours previously thought to account for all aerosol formation in the lower atmosphere can only account for a small fraction of the observations – even with the enhancement of cosmic rays."

Climate models will have to be revised, confirms CERN.

It is clear that the treatment of aerosol formation in climate models will need to be substantially revised, since all models assume that nucleation is caused by these vapours and water alone

en.wikipedia.org...
dahuang.dhxy.info...
www.icr.org...
calderup.wordpress.com...

Looks like a very active region(S1205, northeast limb) is turning into earth's view for the next week.
It just produced a C9 flare, It looks quite spectacular for 'just' a C-flare.
It last for almost 1 hour!
Keep an eye on that region for the coming days, week.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/789e9256dd31.png[/atsimg]
It's intensity is slowly decreasing, check the GOES X-ray monitor.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a008e72cef0d.gif[/atsimg]


Stereo B images

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/4d3c2d15cdba.png[/atsimg]

Goes real time satelite
Stereo B
Goes X-ray

This new area looks impressive.

"CHANCE OF FLARES: New sunspot 1302 has already produced one X-flare (X1.4 on Sept. 22nd), can another be far behind? NOAA forecasters put the 24-hour probability at 20%. The sheer size of the active region suggests the odds might be even higher than that."

spaceweather.com...


roduct: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2011 Sep 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 267 Issued at 0030Z on 24 Sep 2011
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1295 N24W74 057 0550 Ekc 11 14 Beta-Gamma
1296 N26W56 038 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1299 S20W81 063 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1301 N20E13 329 0110 Dso 10 14 Beta
1302 N13E59 283 0840 Ekc 15 10 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z Sep
Nmbr Location Lo
1298 N16W75 058
II. Regions Due to Return 24 Sep to 26 Sep
Nmbr Lat Lo
1283 N17 239


www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by lasertaglover


This thread kind of lacks input for being the Solar Activity thread.l

reply to post by JaqueFresco

You can always contribute to it, feel free.

1302 is impressive.

"UPDATE: Sunspot AR1302 followed today's X2-flare with an M7-flare nearly as strong (movie). So far none of the blasts has been squarely Earth-directed, but this could change as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. AR1302 is growing and shows no immediate signs of quieting down."

spaceweather.com...

Has anyone else noticed that the Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation hasn't updated since Sept 22 @ 09:08 UT?

The last time it stopped updating (to the best of my knowledge) was because of the Japan quake & tsunami (since they're located in Japan). I wonder what stopped the update this time.

reply to post by onthelookout


Didn't notice that, but thanks for the telling.
Are the images updating? Maybe it's a problem with the time indication?

You can also try this one
It's the same but in a different model, not as pretty as the "Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation"
They also update frequently.
If you want to know other values and data on the magnetosphere just go to their main page, under the tab magnetosphere.
iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080...

reply to post by onthelookout

Has anyone else noticed that the Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation hasn't updated since Sept 22 @ 09:08 UT?

I hope this isn't an indication of anything.
Maybe they are having site problems,
I was going to check the magnetosphere
today but suppose I will wait or find another
site.

-

I posted in the wrong thread. There was a few minutes of outage from Malaysia's sole satellite TV provider, ASTRO at 4pm (+8 hours GMT) about 45 minutes ago. The message was "Solar interuption and etc" which was kind of 1st I've ever encountered. I'm not sure if it was due to the spike in solar activity in last few days.

www.reuters.com...

Check this out. Just about bang on time from the first solar flare that nudged us a couple of days ago. We are starting to get pelted now. Could get exciting.

reply to post by hypermount


There was just a shock on the magnetosphere at around 12:00 UTC
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

You can also notice it in the simulation

There appears to be a nice coronal hole developing inline with sunspot-1302. I wonder what kind of impact this will have in the event of a more powerful eruption on the Earth's magnetic field, at least as far as auroras being visible a bit further from the polar regions . . . will we see a combined effect?

reply to post by aarys

The Chile power outage was yesterday. There in no unusual geomagnetic activity.

lots of separate reports of flashes/electrical outage last night from ATS users, other sites.
the sun is not stopping at all right now- unleashing all weekend and with worrisome certainty this is probably linked.

GEOMETRIC STORM WARNING

reply to post by intergalactic fire


I see on spaceweather.com is reporting significant groud currents associated with the arrival of a CME at 12:15UT in Norway. Any ATS users in Norway notice any outages ?

From Speaceweather.com

IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at approximately 12:15 UT on Sept. 26th. The impact caused significant ground currents in Norway. Also, the Goddard Space Weather Lab reports a "strong compression of Earth's magnetosphere. Simulations indicate that solar wind plasma [has penetrated] close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 13:00UT." Geosynchronous satellites could therefore be directly exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic fields. Stay tuned for updates.

That new big sunspot, I am trying to check in and see what that will bring us when it swings around.
Do sun spots develope and then disappear? (kinda like a zit)