N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

Back in the "bad old days" of the WARPAC/NATO standoff we spent quite a bit of time looking at a scenario dubbed the "come as you are" war. Only forces deployed in theatre or those available within 48 hours were of any use. REFORGER and the Ro-Ro convoys were deemed too little too late. Exercise season was always a little tense as it was expected that if the balloon went up it would probably be after a PROGRESS or other such exercise while all their Type A forces were in the field. When this was gamed out it usually went nuclear rather quickly with pressed field commanders seeking tactical release to stem breakthroughs and disrupt bridgeheads. The black humour was that the towns in West Germany were only a kiloton apart.

North Korea is a different kettle of fish. They don't need an exercise as pretext for the positioning of forces. Seventy percent of their forces are within ninety miles of the DMZ. The level of their military engineering is impressive. Any target worth hitting is hardened. Most of their large bore artillery are localed in HARTs and are pre-registered on their targets, with the biggest economic targets within easy range. They have a very large contingent of "special forces"; if used properly these can keep the ROK/UN forces chasing their tails far behind the FEBA slowing reinforcment on the line. While their airforce has few newer aircraft they do have a lot of them. There are only so many AA and SA missles in the inventory in theatre. This could prove to be problematic if they decide to go with a "black sky" type of air campaign and try to swamp the air defenses; high losses but the possibility of a high return.

I mentioned Larry Bond's book a couple of days ago with an eye on Xmas as a possible window for a major incident or actual hostilities. Tactically and strategically it makes a lot of sense. The west goes to sleep at Xmas whether there is a perceived threat or not. Mostly it is the juniors who are sitting watch, the brass and senior NCO's are on leave. You are sorta stuck with this as if you change your alert status and man your command and coms with senior operators, this in itself can be seen as a hostile act and as preparation for an attack. Picture getting up Xmas morning to hear that hostilities opened on the Korean front at 3 AM local with arty and SSM's on the DMZ and Seoul, casulties upwards of 50,000 plus. The sense of shock would be so pervasive that I am sure that it would sow confusion for at least 48 hrs before they got their ducks in a line to respond, unless of course they just dial up Strike Command and send the B2's with B-61's and settle it quick. That of course sets up a whole new series of problems. Tactically it makes sense as well. Winter, while lousy for infantry, is better for mechanized warfare in a country where most of the flat ground is used for agriculture with the staple being rice that is grown in flooded fields.

While I still hope that Richardson can pull a rabbit out of the hat and common sense breaks out, I do think it is time to start watching deployments and activities on the West Coast of the US, Pendelton, 29 Palm, San Diego etc. I doubt they will do a full alert as this would be a red flag to Kim, but I would expect that the activity will ramp up as quietly as possible. The MEF in Hawaii would be a good one to watch. I have much more I want to say but I will end here for now. Good thread btw, well organized with good sourcing.

I think this will spiral into an all out war !!
If these drills go on as planned "soon" there is no question there will be an exchange that will spiral out of control.
We need a way for south korea to save face while canceling these drills!! which they have every right to hold live fire drills on there own territory but maybe in the name of peace find a way to cancel these.. just a bad situation

the weather is ideal for drills today and it will also be clear all night and the next day in case of escalation.
it is currently 4 am day break should be interesting...
local time and weather

When did snow ever stop drills or war for that matter? I just don't think everything is in place yet but it will be soon!

reply to post by paradiselost333



Good post, whole heartedly agree with your assessment. I posted a few back on the OPLAN linke at Global Security if you haven't checked it out feel free.

Anyone know the alert or deployment status of the 25th Infantry? They have two brigades (1 Stryker and one Light) in Hawaii and two more (1 Stryker and 1 Airborne) in Alaska. That along with the rest of the 2nd Infantry at Ft Lewis Itheir armored and air brigades are the permanant station units in Korea) would be the first Army units to be alerted, along with the Marines in Okinawa.

reply to post by Bluetwo



That reply was actually too you

but both were good assessments.

Richardson: North Korea offers to return remains of U.S. troops

A top North Korean general offered Sunday to help return the remains of several hundred U.S. troops killed during the Korean War, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said.

That would be good.

UNSC meets to discuss tensions in Korean Peninsula

"I don't expect any agreement," the diplomat said. "It will be difficult to narrow differences between the Western side, seeing North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong Island to kill civilians is the cause of the rising tensions, and the Chinese and Russian side, saying South Korea's plans for live-fire drills have heightened tensions."
South Korea and the U.S. want the Security Council to first denounce North Korea's shelling of the island before discussing any cancellation of the South's plans for live-fire drills, the diplomat said.

A Japanese delegate to the 15-member council told reporters that Japan "will hold North Korea responsible for the escalating tensions with the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island."
A Mexican delegate was more cautious, saying, "I cannot expect how the meeting will likely proceed. It will take considerable time to produce an agreement."
North Korea's U.N. ambassador, Sin Son-ho, appeared at the venue, but did not answer any questions from reporters. Sin did not attend the meeting, but was waiting outside. Neither South Korea nor North Korea is a Security Council member.

UN fails again.

Pyongyang issues ‘massive nuclear disaster’ threat

North Korea reiterated its threat Sunday of a “nuclear war disaster” if the South Korean military conducts a firing drill on Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea, adding the U.S. will have to take responsibility.

The Chosun Shinbo, the official newspaper of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan, a pro-North Korea group, also said, “Had South Korea not canceled its suggested airstrike on North Korea when the Yeonpyeong shelling occurred, it could have expanded to all-out war,” hinting at stern retaliation by Pyongyang if Seoul resorts to measures such as air strikes using fighter jets.

Well hopefully it won't come to that if the South sends airplanes in response to NKorea bombardment.

Amid South Korean plans to hold live-fire military drills this week and North Korean threats of retaliation, many residents of Yeonpyeong Island are evacuating, afraid of being caught in the middle.
Yep nice choice.

About the special forces of NKorea :
N.Korea 'Has 180,000 Special Forces Ready to Cross into South'


And while this whole thing is going on...
Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb, posing a threat to its neighbors, and the United States is "very ready" to counter Iran should it make a move, the top U.S. military officer said Saturday.
Ain't that nice.

Israeli Army Fires Random Machine Gun Shots at Shabaa Farms

The Israeli army fired random machine gun shots at the Shabaa Farms Saturday night and at dawn on Sunday from its positions in the occupied land.
The shooting lasted for over 15 minutes and was accompanied by overflights by its surveillance planes over the Farms and the adjacent Orqoub village.

Will a new middle-east war start at the same time? WW3 much?

'Israel preparing for war with Lebanon'

Israeli army has completed the most extensive training in recent years in preparation for a possible war with Lebanon, says an Israeli commander.

Ya its getting hot....


I would not be surprised if we see some grapes busted Xmas week.

Ha Ha,. they have been holding remains this long
and now when we are standing on their doorstep with a cannon
they attempt to be nice .
With full respects to the POW's
this is certainly no reason to show mercy at this point

Yeah... looks like some highers up in NKorea know what is about to hit them....but they can't seem to be able to stop Kim.

China warns of escalating arms race in Asia

China is warning that it will be forced to stoke up a dangerously escalating arms race in Asia in response to Japanese plans to build a missile-defence system designed to protect the country from North Korean attacks.

And so it begins?

And while this is going on... in Belarus :

Thousands of opposition demonstrators in Belarus try to storm main government building - AP 6 minutes ago via breakingnews.com

Now 100 000 protesters reported...hopefully this ain't a CIA backed colored revolution or big trouble will happen. Belarus is right on Russia's border.

UPDATE 2 :

Belarus: armed troops gather in Minsk in standoff over election results

Seems to me the whole world is boiling over.

Thank you Sir, used to brief Majors and above, can't say I was too popular as I gave opinions way above my pay grade. Even though we were tasked with reinforcing Spitzbergen, better known as "Hong Kong North", we did spend some time on Korea. This was thirty years ago or more of course so all my "inside" information is totally dated. I am left with Public Source Intelligence which is not bad if you know how to read the tea leaves.

To be honest I do not like what I am seeing at all. This is one of those times where I truly hope I am wrong as it will be zero sum for all combatants if it gets out of hand. I see a confluence of situations and interests that make this as dangerous as it has ever been on the Korean peninsula. 1. We have senior Kim on the way out and Jr. the unknown quantity on the way in, with all the attendant instability that this will cause internally in NK while Dad tries to secure the Crown. 2. We have a rather right wing president in ROK who has already lost face and must do something to secure his domestic base. 3. We have a US president who is being portrayed by his domestic opponents as weak and not fit to be "Commander in Chief". 4. We have NK being the Walmart for proliferation technology seeking hard curency. 5. The famine and economic situation in the north is getting to the point where something's got to give. 6. If you can believe Wikileaks ( which to be honest I do not, it looks a lot like disinfo worthy of Golitsin's dire warnings of the 60's on the other side) China is fed up with the Kims and is starting to look for a way out. These things can all come to a head or just peter out, but there sure as hell is lots of potential for this one to kick off.

As I said in my post above, it will be a come as you are. Who's the ready brigade at Bragg and are there enough 17's to move them. They will be about the only ones that will make it before it gets out of hand. The loss of Clark AFB is going to make this dicey and they can't use anything on Formosa as that would PO the PRC big time so they are stuck with Japan, Ok, Guam and a couple of others for staging out of theatre, all within MRBM range, lots to think about. I don't like the tactical situation I see, to be honest I would be tempted to look to SOC for a solution to this situation, rifle rather than the shotgun. Time will tell.

reply to post by Bluetwo
Nice to have you on deck sir,.
excellent briefing.

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


I have to respond they way we used to...don't call me Sir, I work for a living! (NCO)

reply to post by Bluetwo
Yeah I get it,.
I prefer hearing it as is
Easier for my self to asses the reality of the situation.
Dont like news sources

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


Unfortunatly this is not always the case. There are often hidden sacred cows waiting for the unsuspecting briefer to stumble upon. The Bosses often do not want to hear what a briefer has to say, it either runs contrary to public positions, affects someones career, puts contracts at risk, makes someone wrong who can never be wrong or many of the other hundreds of things that don't allow information to get to where it needs to be. Ask the Able Baker gang about that. I wrote an unsolicited think piece way back when on what I saw as the outcome of the Soviet policies of Glasnost and Peristoika only to be censured for my efforts. I had mustered out by the time my projections bore fruit.

This time around I'd give a buck to hear what the NSC is telling Obama right now. I fear they may be a little insular in their thinking at the moment.

if the # hits the fan im ready to die for my country to protect freedom, for if there is a war, it will not be just against north korea, if you think this then your thinking wrong, pray for no war! otherwise give me a gun and let me protect my friends and family, UK and US will no doubt stand together, as allways.

reply to post by Itop1


Let's hope it will not come that far!!!! I hope people will think twice before they drop something. But there are many crazy people out there

The bit i highlighted caught my attention....

China and Russia have expressed strong opposition to our planned artillery drill around the waters of Yeonpyeong Island. China is increasingly vociferous, and Russia demanded a UN Security Council meeting to address the issue following its earlier denunciation of the drill. The pretext for their opposition is that the exercise may lead to a full-fledged military collision between the two Koreas.

However, our drill is confined to the waters to the south of the Northern Limit Line. Therefore, Beijing and Moscow’s opposition is unfathomable. As the drill carries symbolic meaning - it reaffirms our sovereignty over the tense waters around the five islands since the North’s bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island - China and Russia’s attitude and actions could well be considered an infringement of our sovereignty.

Originally posted by Itop1
The bit i highlighted caught my attention....

China and Russia have expressed strong opposition to our planned artillery drill around the waters of Yeonpyeong Island. China is increasingly vociferous, and Russia demanded a UN Security Council meeting to address the issue following its earlier denunciation of the drill. The pretext for their opposition is that the exercise may lead to a full-fledged military collision between the two Koreas.

However, our drill is confined to the waters to the south of the Northern Limit Line. Therefore, Beijing and Moscow’s opposition is unfathomable. As the drill carries symbolic meaning - it reaffirms our sovereignty over the tense waters around the five islands since the North’s bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island - China and Russia’s attitude and actions could well be considered an infringement of our sovereignty.

Just read that over at yonhap too, it's only an editorial in a daily newspaper though, a journalist's opinion. It is not an official statement from the government of SK although it does give an insight into the SK press stance on matters imo.

Here is the link

If anything happens, NK is going to disappear from the map and that's pretty much it.
I pity the poor suffering people of North Korea..It's so easy to just write off North Korea as crazy loons but they are actually very shrewed in manipulating big power countries.I just hope this wont end up in full blown war but its not looking good...

www.forexpros.com...

S.KOREA PLANS TO CARRY OUT LIVE-FIRE DRILLS OFF WEST COAST FROM MONDAY MORNING - YTN TV

Oooooohhhh, it's on for Monday morning.... which is ermmmm NOW! i.e. 8.30am now in Korea.

No wonder the island people tried to leave on Sunday!!