Hurricane Watch 2010

Hurricane Karl Pounds Mexico... hope everyone is okay... they mentioned mud slides, do they get many there?

I feel sorry for the families that depend on fishing...

reply to post by Antoniastar


Just stopping in for a minute and wanted to thank you for your reply. I dont have time to research it but heard a snippet about a farmer in the US losing his cattle and livestock to some unknown reason other than what could be immediatly discovered, they did seem to think it was possibly enviromental.

First thing I thought about was BP.

sorry I dont have more to go on, but if I am correct we will begin to see many reports like that in the future as the waterways are corrupted as well as the enviroment through winds and rain *toxic*...

Since we're coming up on October...I was curious as to how many hurricanes actuallly hit the US in the month of October historically... it has happened 11 times since 1950 so on average there is approximately one occurrence per 5 years. Florida, 6.. Louisiana, 3.. Texas,1.. North/South Carolina, shared 1...

I didn't find however, a total of TD, TS and hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic in October, that would be interesting if anyone could find that out!

When I was researching... I came across this article, it was really good. This storm was late in October! (Remember the movie?)

On October 30, 1991. Labelled the "perfect storm" by the National Weather Service, the storm sank the swordfishing boat Andrea Gail, whose story became the basis for the currently best-selling novel "The Perfect Storm" by Sebastian Junger.

Noaa

reply to post by OceanStone


Cool article, and yeah, I do remember the Perfect Storm!

You are awesome for finding as many cool articles and graphics that you do.

That new wave off of Africa is getting a higher chance of forming now, but the odd shaped one off Mexico is probably going to move inland before developing any further.

Still not looking bad in Bermuda yet.

www.bermudashorts.bm...


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/dee1a82a71e5.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Interesting news article from Reuters via Yahoo that has some info about Bermuda:

Quote:

Hurricane Igor swirls toward Bermuda

"The Bermuda government has warned residents to prepare for a possible impact similar to the one they experienced in the 2003 Hurricane Fabian, which killed four people and caused millions of dollars of damage.

Authorities were planning to close the island's international airport and a causeway linking it to the rest of Bermuda later on Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center said it could not rule out Igor regaining Category 3 status before it reaches Bermuda, but that "appears less likely than previously thought."

Hurricane expert Joe Bastardi with private U.S. forecaster AccuWeather said Bermuda should be prepared for a "several-day siege of damaging winds and waves."

The hurricane center predicted total rainfall accumulations of five to eight inches over Bermuda. It said the storm could produce significant coastal flooding and large, destructive waves, particularly along the southern coast."


news.yahoo.com...

Here's Igor about 100 miles from Bermuda...

At 11.55 a.m., sustained winds at L.F. Wade International Airport were at 43 knots (50 miles per hour), with gusts at 57 knots (66 mph).

And they're expecting 50 foot high waves!

Bermuda News

Had to add... A new tropical wave formed off of the coast of Africa on Saturday afternoon and is expected to develop over the next few days...

In an earlier post, I listed some web cams that I found for Bermuda. I just wanted point out that one of them says that they do not have a weather proof cam for it, so it is not sending anything current

This is the one that is showing a midly cloudy sky:
www.bermudashorts.bm...

This one is from the Bermuda Weather Service, but the conditions are so bad it is hard to make out anything:
www.weather.bm...

My thoughts and prayers go out to Bermuda. The wave heights, if true, are really nightmarish to consider.

From everything I am reading from the various weather sites, it is the size of Igor that is going to be punishing Bermuda starting now, through the night, and well into tomorrow.

The size is what is causing the fear of massive flooding and enormous tidal surges. Igor is going to take a long time going over Bermuda.


www.nhc.noaa.gov...

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

reply to post by lasertaglover

Yeah, I tried to watch the live web links you posted too... Igor is too bad right now... scary for those people... as they say, natures fury... I agree and hope there are no injuries or fatalities.

Fairly serious conditions right now in Bermuda.............. the worst of it for them will be a bit later on. Fortunately, extratropical Igor's eyewall collapsed, and is now a Cat 1 at 85 mph. Already TS winds in Bermuda -- currently 61 mph sustained at the Civil Air Terminal, with gusting in low hurricane range.


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/dc586c657406.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by argentus

It's so massive looking!

I'm glad it's a Cat 1 now but still dangerous... I think I'll be up late tonight watching it...

Really interesting blog over at the Weather Channel about Igor. The sea level and wave size is going to be a major issue.

Quote from the blog:

"That's one distinguishing characteristic of Igor in Bermuda: the exceptionally long duration of strong winds.

So Igor still has its share of wind, and there will also be heavy rain and maybe even an isolated tornado that happens to hit the islands, but the other distinguishing factor and the most serious component of the threat as the core of the hurricane now bears down on Bermuda is the waves (and "wave setup" -- the cumulative effect of waves which raises the overall water level), as a result of the hurricane's immense size.

Much of Bermuda is at a higher elevation than most of the barrier islands along the U.S. coast. However, the photos at the end of this entry which were posted yesterday in a slide show on weather.com illustrate that not all the buildings in Bermuda are up at those higher elevations which are safe from coastal flooding. The waves Saturday were already getting dangerously close to the buildings in these photos, and the real show had not yet even begun, and thus the photos help visualize why we are indicating an extreme threat level despite Igor "only" being a Category 1.

Inland threats from hurricanes include heavy rain and wind/tornadoes. At the immediate coast, there are two primary elements: wind and waves/surge. One way of quantifying that is "IKE," or "Integrated Kinetic Energy," a measure which got some play in the media in the wake of the hurricane named Ike.

IKE, like the Saffir-Simpson Scale, has limitations, but it makes an attempt to combine wind intensity and size. The latest calculations for it gave a "Destructive Potential Rating" for wind of 2.8, but 5.3 for waves/surge on a scale of 0 to 6."

Link to the rest of the blog:
www.weather.com...

reply to post by OceanStone


Yeah, I think it is going to be a late night.

This storm is pretty bad for Bermuda.

reply to post by OceanStone


Agree, still very dangerous. I will also be up watching it; I always do, whether it affects our area or not. I confess that I don't stay up for other areas, just Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM/Pacific.

The sea surge concerns me more than anything. I think they can make it through the wind damage without it being cataclysmic for Bermuda. No way to mitigate wave stacking, and them coming into high tide soon. Bad news. They could easily have 14-ft wave heights, as evidence by this graph from Swellfinder, plus the surge, which could possibly go in excess of 20 ft. or so. Even briefly, that's a horribly destructive force, as you know. Note: The above was just an estimate -- my opinion. I'm not a met. I never will be.

Be safe Bermudans. I know you all know what to do. This isn't your first rodeo.

reply to post by argentus

Out of curiosity but what is the white mark near the eye of the storm on the radar you posted? Looks more like an object than wind speeds?

reply to post by jazz10


Please do correct me if I am wrong, but I think the white spot is Bermuda.

Been watching the MSM last night and this morning, and I am glad the monster waves did not come onshore Bermuda like predicted.

It does look like the new wave off Africa is showing decent signs of outflow. It still has an 80% chance of forming, and I think it will happen sooner than later, maybe by the next advisory.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/054a4d8c1601.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by lasertaglover


Yes, 94L looks to be organizing. Projected to be another fish storm, curving sooner than the previous. I was looking at the overall probability of the Bermuda/Azores high last night....... it kind of looked to me as if it's shifting more over toward Bermuda. Hope I'm wrong about that.

reply to post by jazz10


Lasartag is right. The white spot is Bermuda -- obscurred somewhat by the IR graphic, and perhaps pixillated a bit by the zoom (that was the GOES 4- floater, which was Igor-centered.)

That other area sure looks like it's spiraling to me...but also looks like it may be getting some sheer from some of Julia's spinoff... How did Bermuda do? I heard last night that it was pretty much down to a cat 1 for the worst of it, so shouldn't be as bad as folks were thinking.

A cat 1's basically our equivalent of a summer thunderstorm here in FL.....

Originally posted by antar
reply to post by Antoniastar

 

Just stopping in for a minute and wanted to thank you for your reply. I dont have time to research it but heard a snippet about a farmer in the US losing his cattle and livestock to some unknown reason other than what could be immediatly discovered, they did seem to think it was possibly enviromental.

First thing I thought about was BP.

sorry I dont have more to go on, but if I am correct we will begin to see many reports like that in the future as the waterways are corrupted as well as the enviroment through winds and rain *toxic*...

Hi Antar,

Thank you very much for your thought-provoking reply. Interesting, because I think animals can act as an "early warning system".

It's okay, I understand. I didn't find anything either...until tonight when I checked my email. I have an article from a subscription that you might want to see, so I'll privately leave it with you, since it could be off-topic here..

Toni