Evacuation Warning! - Yellowstone National Park (Non Official)

Yellowstone Earthquake Swarm: Updated
January 02, 2009 09:27 AM ET | James Pethokoukis | Permanent Link | Print

More on the Yellowstone earthquake swarm at the supervolcano caldera. First, this piece of database analysis from an IT guy at Splunk puts the swarm into scary perspective:

I'm sending you this email with some information I've gleaned from the USGS archives. I'm analyzing the ANSS data (www.ncedc.org...) in an install of Splunk, which is a timeline based search and reporting engine. I have 30 years of data in the system, with about 2M quakes total. It makes doing graphs and adhoc investigations faster than dealing with the USGS limited search forms. Disclaimer: I work for Splunk as their evangelist, and spend a lot of time studying various timeline based textual data and writing interesting apps for the software. I am not an earthquake expert by any means.

Using the ANSS data, I discovered the number of 2.5 or higher quakes in the *general* Yellowstone area for the decade of the 1980s was 128. The number of 2.5 or higher quakes for the region directly around the lake in the *last 4 days* was 30.

Again, for 2.5 mag or greater quakes:
Entire region of Yellowstone for 10 years = 128 quakes
Area just around Yellowstone Lake last 4 Days = 30 quakes

The entire 1980s of 2.5 or higher quakes in the vicinity of the lake was a paltry 4 quakes. Doing a quick back of the envelope calculation using the number of quakes and the intesities, the activity over the last 4 days has released roughly 100x the amount of energy released in the entire 1980s for the same general region. In the last week alone there have been 10 quakes of magnitude 3.0 or greater around the lake, with one as high as 3.8.

source: www.usnews.com...



Well this just keeps getting better and better!

reply to post by delius


How fast did the response come back? That just looks like a auto-response e-mail that most people send back when your e-mail gets flooded with a lot of e-mails. I could be wrong, but from the format, it looks like an generic auto-response.

reply to post by Rocketgirl

Sorry to differ with you , but oil and energy companies staff geologist and many other scientists . They have to find the oil and then test to see if the site is geologically sound and then find out if it is a hazard to the environment or in most case how to spin doctor the hazards to fit their plans. There has been proof exhibited to his basic credentials but it is still a watch and see thing . Mother Nature doesnt like the govt nor the people to get into her business too much lol. hoax or not it makes one look into the issue at hand .



[edit on 1/3/2009 by BlackKnight7365]

New development as of Saturday, Jan 3, 2009 at 03:51:47 PST

Yellowstone has now been added to the elevated volcanic activity list.

elevated volcanic activity

[edit on 3-1-2009 by violet]

Poster above... Your link is broken.

This earthquake sequence is the most intense in this area for some years. No damage has been reported within Yellowstone National Park, nor would any be expected from earthquakes of this size. The swarm is in a region of historical earthquake activity and is close to areas of Yellowstone famous hydrothermal activity. Similar earthquake swarms have occurred in the past in Yellowstone without triggering steam explosions or volcanic activity. Nevertheless, there is some potential for hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes may continue or increase in magnitude. There is a much lower potential for related volcanic activity.

Source

Although these quakes might be increasing in number, and yes slightly in size, we really should only be concerned when the quakes are at mag. 7 or 8


[edit on 3/1/2009 by Kliskey]

reply to post by violet


the page does not exist. or I have some problems to get there. but as I saw the status is still normal green.

reply to post by violet


ok. I found it :

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

cheers

Sorry about that, link is fixed now

elevated volcanic activity

Originally posted by czacza
reply to post by violet

 

the page does not exist. or I have some problems to get there. but as I saw the status is still normal green.

Yes the status remains the same. It wasn't on there on previous checks or earlier today, it being added to the elevated list now is new.

Originally posted by hawk65
source: www.usnews.com...

US World and News Report is one of the very few MSM news outlets that I have found has little or no bias in it's reporting. We have a subscription. It's our only magazine and/or news subscription.

This was excellent. I suggest that those who have a few minutes pass this along to the MSM, drudge, etc ...

reply to post by jam321


it only takes one person to rause the alarm. in 1987 the uk was ravaged by a storm that caused millions of £'s of damage and loss of life . the bbc during their weather report read out a letter from an amature weather watcher who had forseen the coming storm . his concerns were dismissed on live television in front of millions of people. the following day people awoke to the devastation
www.youtube.com...

Dont know if this has been posted yet because i have practically just woken up and found out about all this and heres some info:
although this info is for yesterday because there isnt any for the 3rd yet i dont think

YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO (CAVW#1205-01-)
44.43°N 110.67°W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Aviation Color Code: GREEN

Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Update: 2 January 2008

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports that as of 1800 MST on 2 January 2009, seismicity of the ongoing Yellowstone earthquake swarm continues. Over 500 earthquakes, as large as M 3.9, have been recorded by an automated earthquake system since the inception of this unusual earthquake sequence that began Dec. 27, 2008. More than 300 of these events have been reviewed and evaluated by seismic analysts. Depths of the earthquakes range from ~ 1km to around 10 km. We note that the earthquakes extend northward from central Yellowstone Lake for ~10 km toward the Fishing Bridge area, with a migration of recent earthquakes toward the north. Some of the dozen M3+ earthquakes were felt in the Lake, Grant Village and Old Faithful areas. Personnel of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory continue to evaluate this earthquake sequence and will provide information to the NPS, USGS and the public as it evolves.

This earthquake sequence is the most intense in this area for some years. No damage has been reported within Yellowstone National Park, nor would any be expected from earthquakes of this size. The swarm is in a region of historical earthquake activity and is close to areas of Yellowstone famous hydrothermal activity. Similar earthquake swarms have occurred in the past in Yellowstone without triggering steam explosions or volcanic activity. Nevertheless, there is some potential for hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes may continue or increase in magnitude. There is a much lower potential for related volcanic activity.

The University of Utah operates a seismic network in Yellowstone National Park in conjunction with the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey. These three institutions are partners in the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. Seismic data from Yellowstone are transmitted to the University in real-time by radio and satellite links from a network of 28 seismographs in the Yellowstone area and are available on the web

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

[edit on 3-1-2009 by Anti - Government]

just the fact usgs put it on the list has me a bit freaked !
volcanoes.usgs.gov...

its been at color green since 2005...but why suddenly add it to the list?

yellowstone hasnt erupted in ages...

i certainly hope everything dies down...for at least 1000years

[edit on 3-1-2009 by muzzleflash]

[edit on 3-1-2009 by muzzleflash]

reply to post by Anti - Government


Not sure if you can trust University of Utah seismograph readings. They did upset Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and gone off the Richter scale. Congrats to them. Seriously if Yellowstone blows the defense ramifications are huge. US would be divided in half.

Because of the interest in Mr. Sanders proclamation, the ATS:MIX is attempting to arrange an interview with this geologist.

If you would like to post your questions (if we are able to get him on the ATS:MIX), then please go to this link to post them. You can post more than one question, but we will only ask one question in "your name" (but if it's really a good question.. Dave and I may still ask it)

Post Questions for Christopher Sanders, The Geologist Warning About Yellowstone

All discussions should continue and remain here on this thread and not on the ATS:MIX "Questions Thread".

We hope you'll have some interesting questions,


Johnny

I'd rather believe Jake here, their chief scientist, rather than some unknown geologist.

"Jake Lowenstern, Ph.D., YVO's chief scientist, who also is part of the USGS Volcano Hazards Team, told TIME that a supervolcano event does not appear to be imminent. "We don't think the amount of magma exists that would create one of these large eruptions of the past," he said. "It is still possible to have a volcanic eruption comparable to other volcanoes. But we would expect to see more and larger quakes, deformation and precursory explosions out of the lake. We don't believe that anything strange is happening right now."

So, in a nutshell, he would expect considerable more activity as a precursor to even a normal-type volcano, let alone a super-volcano.

There are several geologists in my office, I'll have to chat with a few of them on Monday to see if they think the same.

Originally posted by JohnnyAnonymous
Because of the interest in Mr. Sanders proclamation, the ATS:MIX is attempting to arrange an interview with this geologist.

If you would like to post your questions (if we are able to get him on the ATS:MIX), then please go to this link to post them. You can post more than one question, but we will only ask one question in "your name" (but if it's really a good question.. Dave and I may still ask it)

Post Questions for Christopher Sanders, The Geologist Warning About Yellowstone

All discussions should continue and remain here on this thread and not on the ATS:MIX "Questions Thread".

We hope you'll have some interesting questions,


Johnny

Johnny Thank you,

I wasn't sure with the advent of last night, his posted credentials and everybody wondering if he was a hoax.

Keep us updated, since this could effect millions of people.

Originally posted by violet
New development as of Saturday, Jan 3, 2009 at 03:51:47 PST

Yellowstone has now been added to the elevated volcanic activity list.

elevated volcanic activity

[edit on 3-1-2009 by violet]

This is too weird now, how would a almost nobody Geologist/maybe know this and now it's getting elevated?

Thanks for the warning update.

www.time.com...

It seems CNN are covering an article from Time magazine about Yellowstone!

Visit the above link, hope this has not been posted already.

reply to post by fleabit


FYI - He is government . . . I tend not to believe a government bureaucrat and listen to someone in Academia . . . IMHO