Whats going on at yellowstone?

Originally posted by SLAYER69
Isnt it like the more it rumbles the less danger there is of something major happening, Releasing energy a little bit at a time. Instead of all of a sudden BOOM!

Atleast thats what they told us growing up in CaLI

I seem to remember that they evacuated Mt. St. Helens before it blew it's top, the warning signs included swarms of miniquakes.

Yeah looking at it now it does make sense that it would be an admin error.

Certainly does look like things are picking up again in the area!

Thanks guys for clearing that up

If you live near the area, better get to Walmart for an extra pack of bog roll!





(End of fearmongering)

On a more serious note, is this recent activity more or less than last years?

Im wondering as I have a bad feeling in my stomach right now about this topic but then again who would get a nice feeling reading about it?

Might also be worth creating a new thread on the topic as this thread is far too long to get all the information, just my opinion of course.



[edit on 19-1-2010 by XXXN3O]

reply to post by MoorfNZ

Thanks! Yeah I have been reading this thread when I can, it's pretty long! I will check out the link too. Thanks again

This is the cumulative seismic energy of earthquakes listed by the University of Utah during this swarm as of now:

Cumulative energy in blue (dimensionless), left values
Earthquake magnitude in orange, right values (magnitude)

[edit on 2010-1-19 by Shirakawa]

This is indirectly related but there was an M class solar flare last night. THat might help things in a bad way.Jus sayin.

reply to post by Shirakawa


I'm I right to assume that you only have the quakes posted on most recent map. The list missing about two hundreds events. Any bets on when they will add the missing data.

I asked you what you thought of my prediction. Your non-response should suffice I quess. Maybe you could give a one word answer. Like- coincidence- maybe. Mathematically I would have to accept there is a possiblity it was chance.

For those that haven't read it yet, I predicted this event back on Dec. 29th and posted on this thread. A thread that nearly dead. We, especially myself, got distracted by the climate change debate because things were quiet. Nothing much was happening at Yellowstone. Othere than small pockets of activity. When I made my prediction is was "relatively quiet" with only 70 quakes in December. The only ongoing debate was whether or not the uplift had slowed or stopped.

I feel like this is my swarm. I saw it coming and even told anyone who was still reading when to tune in to watch the show.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

This swarm was triggered by the gravitational cycle of the moon, and sun.
The same gravity that is creating the tides was the catalyst for the swarm last year, and with this swarm which is giving us a repeat performance of that phenomenon. Two "notable" swarms happening with the moon at apogee approximately one year apart. With the latter swarm coming right on schedule according to my prediction. That's science. You observe and if you find a pattern, you apply the conditions and then try to predict the outcome according to hypothesis.
I've done that. It will be some time before the same lunar cycle returns to make the next observation.

This lunar cycle may be responsible for the global increase in earthquakes and all rumbling volcanoes. Last month Redoubt threatened again for a short span and Mayon rumbled causing geologists to advise evacuations. There were a few other minor erputions. The moon gave us whiplash. And for a moment we were in a state of equilibrium between the sun and the moon. We hung out in space for while there. At 1:41 UTC Jan 17 th, 2010. The tug of war for the moment paused, then the sun pulled us back from the moon and the quakes begun. The fluids under Yellowstone had been pulled upward throughout the geyers system and the magma chamber itself. Yellowstone was squeezed stiff stress ball. When the earth return to it's more usual gravitional state, the fluids flowed backward. This lubricated faulting and caused the swarm.

Swarms are relatively common. Won't agrue with that. Swarms within the caldera not as common. It's all relative. It's all within the scope of a defintion.

Here's a video I made to demonstrate an experiment showing how Yellowstone may erupt.

www.youtube.com...


Did you miss any of that? Simply put, I predicted this swarm and here's the document again in case you missed it.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Thought id post this.

Yellowstone National Park has been rattled by more than 250 earthquakes in the past two days following a period of 11 months of quiet seismic activity in the park.

The quakes have been gaining strength, with a 3.1 tremor recorded at 11:03 a.m. today. A 2.9 quake was recorded at 12:38 p.m.

Prof. Robert B. Smith, a geophysicist at the University of Utah and one of the leading experts on earthquake and volcanic activity at Yellowstone, said that the activity is a "notable swarm."

"The swarm is located about 10 miles northwest of Old Faithful, Wyo., and nine miles southeast of West Yellowstone, Montana," said Smith.

Jamie Farrell, a doctoral student in geophysics who works with Smith at the University of Utah, said that as of 3 p.m. today, 270 quakes have been recorded in the past two days.

Farrell said the quakes are occurring in an area about 5 miles from where the largest swarm of quakes was ever recorded in October 1985.

Quakes in the current swarm have ranged in magnitude of 0.5 to 3.1.

Farrell said there have been reports of at least one of the tremors being felt in the park, but he is expecting more reports as the earthquakes continue.

Smith said such swarms are "relatively common." Today's tremors seem to be normal tectonic activity, and is "not an indication" that some sort of volcanic activity will occur.

Since 1995 there have been 80 swarms, including the one that started Sunday, Farrell said.

Farrell said that there is absolutely no connection between what is occurring in Yellowstone and the magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Haiti.

"They are completely different systems," said Farrell. "They are not related."

In late December 2008 and early January 2009, Yellowstone National park experienced the second largest earthquake swarm in Yellowstone's recorded seismic history. The swarm under the north end of Yellowstone Lake consisted of 813 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging up to 3.9.

The most devastating earthquake in recent history in the Yellowstone region occurred on Aug. 17, 1959, when a magnitude 7.3 earthquake hit. It was centered near Hebgen Lake, Mont., killed 28 people and caused more than $11 million in damage.

Mike Stickney, director of earthquake studies at the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, said there is no way to predict when the next big one will hit.

He said it will likely occur along one of the 45 faults that line two belts - one stretching from Yellowstone National Park up to Helena, Mont., and a second one along the Montana-Idaho border.

Read more: www.denverpost.com...

www.denverpost.com...

Ive already been reading some other articles on this thread as well but thought it was worth putting in here.

From what this newspaper is saying it seems this swarm is not as bad as last years both in volume and strength. If these go above 3.9 then it would be stronger as far as I can see.

Im no expert on quakes though.



[edit on 19-1-2010 by XXXN3O]

Originally posted by Robin Marks
reply to post by Shirakawa

 

I'm I right to assume that you only have the quakes posted on most recent map. The list missing about two hundreds events. Any bets on when they will add the missing data.

Of course I have only the earthquakes posted on the recent map, but if most of them are small they shouldn't change the results much when included in my chart. The seismic energy of an earthquakes increases by nearly 32 times for each magnitude of change.

So, if a M1.5 earthquake has a seismic energy of 180, a M3.0 earthquake would overwhelm it with a seismic energy of 31500. So unless *really a lot* of small earthquakes occur, there wouldn't be that much change. Also this means it takes an earthquake having a magnitude just "barely higher" than other preceding ones to equate all the seismic energy unleashed by previous earthquakes during the swarm. For this to happen now it would require just a single M3.7 earthquake, which would have a seismic energy of 350000.

I asked you what you thought of my prediction. Your non-response should suffice I quess. Maybe you could give a one word answer. Like- coincidence- maybe. Mathematically I would have to accept there is a possiblity it was chance.

Sorry, I guess I missed it.

[...] Did you miss any of that? Simply put, I predicted this swarm and here's the document again in case you missed it.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I read it quickly - I think that's a coincidence because, according to the USGS, although the moon does have some effects, these are so small that they're statistically insignificant.

I think it would be more realist to say that since activity since the last big swarm has been very low, it was only a matter of time before another one would occur. Also according to YVO, about 40% of the earthquakes [occurring on Yellowstone] every year are associated with swarms, which therefore aren't an uncommon thing here.

Wait a minute... Did you predict this swarm?

3.3 just hit yellowstone

MAG 3.3
Date-Time

* Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 16:48:32 UTC
* Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:48:32 AM at epicenter

Location 44.573°N, 110.963°W
Depth 8.5 km (5.3 miles)
Region YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING
Distances

* 15 km (9 miles) SE (131°) from West Yellowstone, MT
* 31 km (19 miles) ENE (75°) from Island Park, ID
* 55 km (34 miles) SSW (201°) from Gardiner, MT
* 431 km (268 miles) N (10°) from Salt Lake City, UT

As I'm writing, what I think is the biggest earthquake so far in this swarm just occurred.
It's probably M3.5+.

EDIT:
M3.3 (for now)

3.3 2010/01/19 09:48:32 44.573N 110.963W 8.5 15 km ( 9 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

Also I've seen the UoU staff is starting to add previous smaller earthquakes too.
Great!

[edit on 2010-1-19 by Shirakawa]

As was the case last year, you're awesome! You've evolved even since your excellent work since then. Thanks for all you do.

reply to post by Shirakawa


The only issue I have with your argument is that most quakes are associated with swarms and not uncommon. Swarms are not uncommon. But larger swarms like this one and last year are admittedly "noteable". And swarms outside the caldera to the northwest are common. Large swarms within the caldera and on the rim are less common.

Coincidences exist. But having this swarm and last's under the same lunar cycle is a remarkable coincidence. Both inside the caldera unlike the majority which have occured outside.

Please just one thing if you could. At 1:41 UTC Jan 17th, I see something very small recorded on YMR. It was picked up by the stations around it. It's so small I didn't notice it at first. Is this a siesmic signal? Did it show up on the surrounding stations?

Thankyou, I was wonder how much the additional small quakes would affect the cumulative energy.

Originally posted by Lil Drummerboy
This is indirectly related but there was an M class solar flare last night. THat might help things in a bad way.Jus sayin.

LilDrummerboy I was thinking the same thing when I read that this morning. It seems anytime there is a large solar flare that hits us, significant seismic activity follows within a few days. Just have to wait and see what happens...

edit
just saw after writing this that the flare was on the other side of the sun so will not impact us, very good thing

[edit on 1/19/2010 by wrangell76]

reply to post by Shirakawa


Shirakawa, are you getting any data from YDC and YHB. The regular webicorders have gone haywire and stopped. (correction) they still seem to be recording, but they were obsured by a strange flurry. Calibration?

YFT, YNR, and LKWY are also still closed for business.

Is the problem just on the webicorder or are you getting it on your GEE. Maybe I should figure out how to install it on my computer. Got a link for a novice?

Yes they have started to post the quakes < 2.5. But it's totally random because they still haven't posted from Saturday January 16th. Three days after a quake and still not posted. Either the list is an afterthought, or the postings are deliberate. They're trickling out the numbers and they're doing a much better PR job compared to last year. Maybe they got a consultant advisor. Corporations have listeners now to hear what the public is saying about them to calculate trends and manage spin. Maybe the YVO got an agent after last year. Probably an agent who worked in the insurance lobby.

[edit on 19-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

[edit on 19-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

Originally posted by Robin Marks
Please just one thing if you could. At 1:41 UTC Jan 17th, I see something very small recorded on YMR. It was picked up by the stations around it. It's so small I didn't notice it at first. Is this a siesmic signal? Did it show up on the surrounding stations?

At 1:41 I can't see anything, but at about 1:51 there's a small signal which appears to be a very small earthquake. It appeared on nearby stations too.

Originally posted by Robin Marks
Shirakawa, are you getting any data from YDC and YHB. The regular webicorders have gone haywire and stopped.

They work properly on GEE. The feed is ok.

YFT, YNR, and LKWY are also still closed for business.

Those stations are ko.
Their status can be checked here:
www.iris.edu...
(search in the WY network and the US network)

Is the problem just on the webicorder or are you getting it on your GEE. Maybe I should figure out how to install it on my computer. Got a link for a novice?

Unfortunately I don't have a link for a novice, only the regular download link:
www.seis.sc.edu...

reply to post by Shirakawa


Thanks. Yes it's just before 1:51 UTC. How many earthquakes from this point until the main event were there you think?

And this is just a request from a dedicated fan. Can you set musical tones to the quakes and make a video? Just complete curiousity. You know you've been so good to us when you meet requests for information. And I honestly respect your opinion, it's tempered and balanced. That's probably why I'm trying to sway you. To make a strong agrument it has to withstand a virgorous test of counter reasoning. I know it makes you scratch your head. But you're driven my the science you've learn, and for that I respect you. What your telling me in all honesty is, that me even a blind squirrell finds a nut once in a while. I hope you get my tone by now so I won't need to explain bad jokes. Are you male or female? Sometimes it's hard when I'm writing about you, I never know whether to say he or she. It's just to help me when I'm typing.

Just one more interesting note. There is no other activity anywhere in the park. It's all in a concentrated area and for some reason the quakes are not extending outward in any real fashion. The quake under the lake had branching and the migrated. The reason for the small area affected may be due to it being strictly tectonic, and not movement of magma or large aquifer changes. At least not yet.

[edit on 19-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

This is my new cumulative seismic energy chart which includes newly added earthquakes since January 17:

reply to post by Shirakawa


Sorry but I'm obssessed with graphs. Do you have a graph from last's year swarm for reference?


One other minor thing, don't you think you should start graph on the 15th when first quake hit the rim in this area. 9:13 UTC i believe?

[edit on 19-1-2010 by Robin Marks]