Impending earthquake/volcanic activity - California area

UPDATE:

I have spoken to my father and he has shed some 'if not much' light on the situation.

He can't say exactly what he is doing or why, but he has mentioned there is HUGE snow melt localised to one side of the Mt, which is anomalous and something that he and the guys there can't explain. He seems very excited when you hear him on the phone and there seemed to be an excited atmosphere in the b/g - lots of people talking excitedly (also lots of different accents - not just UK or US).

He said he can mention the snow melt as you can probably find it online - i.e. it's pretty obvious to people in the area when water is pouring off the Mt.

Here's my GUESS - (GUESS so don't read too much into it - my father isn't saying this):
Snow is melting -> ground is heating up -> magma or hot gas coming close to the surface.

This doesn't necessarily cause quakes if there is little resistance underground so plausible even without more quake activity than we are seeing.

Is there anyway we can find out if it's bulging or anything??

This is exciting stuff.

BTW - to jump ahead of your questions (as they are ones I asked immediately) - I don't know what side of the Mt this is on, how large an area is effected, or what else they are seeing - although there IS more as he was adamant that he couldn't talk about anything else and why bother saying that if there is nothing else to say!!!

UPDATE:

I have spoken to my father and he has shed some 'if not much' light on the situation.

He can't say exactly what he is doing or why, but he has mentioned there is HUGE snow melt localised to one side of the Mt, which is anomalous and something that he and the guys there can't explain. He seems very excited when you hear him on the phone and there seemed to be an excited atmosphere in the b/g - lots of people talking excitedly (also lots of different accents - not just UK or US).

He said he can mention the snow melt as you can probably find it online - i.e. it's pretty obvious to people in the area when water is pouring off the Mt.

Here's my GUESS - (GUESS so don't read too much into it - my father isn't saying this):
Snow is melting -> ground is heating up -> magma or hot gas coming close to the surface.

This doesn't necessarily cause quakes if there is little resistance underground so plausible even without more quake activity than we are seeing.

Is there anyway we can find out if it's bulging or anything??

This is exciting stuff.

BTW - to jump ahead of your questions (as they are ones I asked immediately) - I don't know what side of the Mt this is on, how large an area is effected, or what else they are seeing - although there IS more as he was adamant that he couldn't talk about anything else and why bother saying that if there is nothing else to say!!!

reply to post by Dutty_Rag


So, your dad is one of the gas or magma guys in the Earth Sciences dept. This isn't seismic.

There were other places that have shown unusual heat/gaseous emission, but I don't think they resulted in any EQ or volcanic activity.

Perhaps it's just a unique opportunity for your father and his cohorts to study something rare firsthand and publish first. I know researchers are very competitive in these regards.

I'll look into the two alternatives, see what their significance may be and post up later.

Thanks for your help. Great post. You could be on the cusp of new science here!


p.s.: You may want to look and see if Mt. St. Helens had pre-indicators such as gas or magma movement. That would be very significant in figuring out what's going on.

[edit on 12-12-2008 by jdub297]

Originally posted by jdub297
reply to post by Dutty_Rag

p.s.: You may want to look and see if Mt. St. Helens had pre-indicators such as gas or magma movement. That would be very significant in figuring out what's going on.

[edit on 12-12-2008 by jdub297]

There was both gas and magma movement (and earthquakes) that warned everyone that helens was getting ready to erupt. i remember it well because i was celebrating my husbands birthday by going to ahotel and i was watching the news. There had been earthquakes and magma movement for days leading up to this day in Seeptember and it just so happened that a tv news' helicopter was flying over the mountain when it errupted for the first time in what, 20 years? It was really amazing to see and watch the whole lead up to it. I was online a lot watching the seismographs and following the news as much as I could because I really wanted to see what an eruption was like.

Tela

reply to post by Telafree


there've been several quakes, but a member who lives w/i 100 miles says they aren't felt.

looks like we have the same ingredients present here as there. I wonder how much lead-time the signs give prior to eruption.

thanks for the information.

Slightly off topic - Tela - you suggested you were online around Mt St Helens? ONLINE? Was the internet even around then - and seriously - following seismology online? Then?

Just curious! I first got the internet back in like 95 or something and it was pretty basic back then. I remember IRC chat rooms with guys swapping pics of naked girls - little did I know these were all paedophiles swapping child porn! :-O amazing how nieve we all were back then to this stuff - and also how openly they could do it !

Back onto the mountain - how big a deal is a Mt Baker eruption in terms of damage - what's the local population like etc?

PLEASE RESPOND:

I have been monitoring all of the earthquake threads on this website with an eagle eye. I have a flight to catch in the morning to Seattle!!! This is my very first flight ever and very first trip out west. All of this reading about earthquakes has put me on edge and I'm thinking of not even going at this point. I NEED to know right now what the chances are of something actually happening. I live in TN, so if I stay here I'm safe.

Originally posted by edgecrusher2199
PLEASE RESPOND:

I have been monitoring all of the earthquake threads on this website with an eagle eye. I have a flight to catch in the morning to Seattle!!! This is my very first flight ever and very first trip out west. All of this reading about earthquakes has put me on edge and I'm thinking of not even going at this point. I NEED to know right now what the chances are of something actually happening. I live in TN, so if I stay here I'm safe.

You live on top of the biggest baddest fault in the country (New Madrid), and you're afraid of something that's only being studied at this point?

Take your trip, but it's gonna be a little cooler there than TN.

We're really not sure anything is going to happen; just trying to figure out what they're looking at and why.

Look at it this way: There are some of the smartest EQ/volcano scientist in the world there right now, and they're staying past Christmas.

Do you think they'd do that if there was any kind of imminent threat?

Take pictures. I've never been, but I hear it's beautiful and unique.

www.pnsn.org...

a link for the mt baker seismograph... seems something "moved" today.

any one help out with reading this?

reply to post by pynner


It sure looks that way, but I can't tel you if someone kicked it or what.

USGS map show 2 nearby small tremors w/i last 2 days.
USGS
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by Dutty_Rag
Slightly off topic - Tela - you suggested you were online around Mt St Helens? ONLINE? Was the internet even around then - and seriously - following seismology online? Then?

not in the 80s silly, im talkin about 2004-2005 when it started dome building eruptions. It erupted a few times and then quietly went back to sleep earlier this year. Of course none of the eruptions were as large as the eruptions in the 80s. I have some amazing pictures from March of 2005 when it erupted while we just happened to be at the visitor's center. THat was extremely amazing and wondrous and scary all at the same time.

Back onto the mountain - how big a deal is a Mt Baker eruption in terms of damage - what's the local population like etc?

Im not too familiar with the Mt Baker area..so someone else will have to answer that one for ya..

reply to post by Dutty_Rag


"Back onto the mountain - how big a deal is a Mt Baker eruption in terms of damage - what's the local population like etc?"


Mt baker is between the greater vancouver area, greater victoria and the whole of puget sound... so I will say it effects at least 6 million people.

Here's some info I found on expectations if it blows it's lid per say.

Mount Baker's next major eruption is most likely to send a column of ash several kilometres into the atmosphere and erupt viscous lava flows. Neither of these events constitute a significant hazard. However, because the mountain is capped by an estimated 2 km³ of glacial ice and snow, even minor eruptions could generate significant mudflows and floods. Depending on which valley these floods descended, cities in the eastern Fraser River valley (such as low-lying parts of Abbotsford) could be flooded. In addition, because the volcano is almost directly under flight paths into and out of Vancouver, British Columbia, even minor eruptions of ash constitute a significant hazard to aviation in southwestern Canada.

Larger, more devastating eruptions are known from Mount Baker's past. If the style of future eruptions at Mount Baker were to change from the smaller eruptions that have occurred over the past few hundred years, any future eruption could have a far more significant impact on southwestern British Columbia. An emergency preparedness exercise in January 1997 tested the ability of government and inhabitants of the Fraser River valley to cope with a significant volcanic event resulting from an eruption of Mount Baker. The exercise, referred to as 'Thunderbird 3', was run by the British Columbia provincial government in collaboration with other levels of government. Emergency preparedness personnel in communities in the Fraser River valley were asked to cope with significant accumulations of ash and with flooding of many low-lying parts of the valley. Exercises such as Thunderbird 3 are crucial for developing volcanic-hazard safety awareness and action plans in communities likely to be affected by future volcanic eruptions.

Source

The site also lists the Coordiation plan in case of emergency in PDF format here on the same page as the source.

Mount Baker Glacier Park Coordination Plan

Unless it's a major eruption the Glaciers is the biggest threat we would face. Major ash would mess up the olympics in 2010 if it happened during this time, another reason to put extra study into it.

[edit on 12-12-2008 by airteck]

Originally posted by Evasius
Nearly 12 hours ago I saw a number of quakes listed for Central California that were subsequently removed from the page.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Anyone ever seen multiple quakes listed and then removed soon after?

Just wanted to let you know that an hour or two ago there was a 3.0 in Wyoming. I have a widget on my laptop that "says" the quakes when they happen. About 10 minutes after it was listed it was removed. There is no listing that I can find on USGS at the moment - but it is still listed on the RSOE site. Hmmm.... odd

Something we are learning from the thread -> Quake data is being doctored - why is this - is it because someone literally knocks the machine and it's not a quake at all? Why can't we know about quakes!

Could they be forcing the Mt'n to blow do you think? To like release pressure and prevent a major deal later in the year?

Maybe so - would be interesting if there was a 'small eruption' in the next few days - could look for the seismic signature of explosives on the seismographs.

Any evidence of scientists using explosives to do this in the past? Do you think it's possible to blow off the side of a mountain to force an eruption? This is surly a terror concern if so. A carefully placed charge on an active volcano close to a population centre could end up doing more damage than a small nuke in a city! Lets hope the government have this covered (no need to worry here - no canoes in the UK) ;-) I'm all right Jack.

reply to post by Dutty_Rag


I'm completely confused as to why this 3.0 Wyoming quake was removed
(and so quickly) from my widget.
This is a very bright red flag for me. Something is amiss. Still isn't listed at USGS. Could have been a mining incident that they decided wasn't a true quake - however they will list those as being "probable quarry explosion" when that happens.

This seismic monitor is still showing the Wyoming quake:

visz.rsoe.hu...

A 3.0, as mentioned.

I have been watching this thread along with the earthquake threads and was wondering the same thing. Why are they removing EQ data from USGS? I went to the site earlier today and it shows two small maps, so you have to click on the US or world map to enlarge them to see. It kept looking like there was a small spot in TN, but when you enlarged it, it only showed the three small ones in SE Missouri. I know that's a bit off topic, but I noticed the same thing this past week. Things show up there then are gone.

LATEST UPDATE FROM MY BAKER;

My Dad has confirmed he IS staying in Mt Baker for the christmas period - at least until Jan 10th now.

He has confirmed that there is unprecedented heating and a huge area on the upper slopes (glacial region) is now bear of snow/ice due to heating.

They are investigating the cause of the heating and ARE looking at possibility of a 'volcanic event'

He said there was no way he could elaborate - the above is in the public domain - not announced but obviously all you need to do is fly over and you can see the Mt has a bald spot.

No gas emissions yet - nothing unusual - he says no quakes he has felt but HAS apparently been some deep activity - which he states again is publicly available.

What is more interesting about this is that he was obviously - as I think we have established - flown out BEFORE this melting was seen - how did they know this in advance? Just from the heating? Do they measure heating? Do they have probes up there?

I so want him to tell me but he says he can't say at all which as I mentioned before is pretty standard when he does work for organisations. He has even had to sign the official secrets act here in the UK before for his geo work - and here you can goto jail if you speak about it. I guess there's something the same in the USA>

Looks like something is happening on Baker after all ! great posts everyone who has posted quake data etc

To those who live near - keep watching for any smoking etc.

Not sure if this link has been posted yet, but it's a few webcams for Mt. Baker:

www.skimountaineer.com...

It's the first section under the 'Washington' heading.