Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

BREAKING - SKY TV - U.S. DEFENCE SECRETARY GATES: Another Russian attack on Georgia will result in American armed response.


The larger font is for effect.

Heh, my posts don't seem to be appearing.

[Fixed!]

[edit on 18-9-2008 by chips]

Some of Condoleezza Rice's comments on Russia today:

WASHINGTON (AFP) — US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice cast doubt Thursday on whether Russia, "increasingly authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad," will continue to be brought into the global economic fold.

In excerpts of a speech due to be delivered later Thursday, Rice said that because of its August 7 invasion of Georgia and other behavior, "Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) is now in question.

"And so too is its attempt to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development," she said according to excerpts released by the State Department ahead of her speech to the transatlantic German Marshall Fund.

No concrete retaliatory measures appeared in the excerpts of the speech. US officials have said Washington is reviewing "other options" beyond its suspension of civilian nuclear and military cooperation with Russia.

Appearing to underscore his point, Rice spoke directly to the leadership in Moscow represented by President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

"Our strategic goal now is to make it clear to Russia's leaders that their choices are putting Russia on a one-way path to self-imposed isolation and international irrelevance," Rice said.

Such a goal will be achieved, she said, with help from the European Union.

"To reach its full potential, Russia needs to be fully integrated into the international political and economic order," Rice said.

Rice said Russia's leaders will fail to "accomplish their primary war aim of removing Georgia's government." Rice earlier this month announced one billion dollars in economic and other aid for Georgia.

Rice, an academic who specialized in Russia and the former Soviet Union, said that Russian actions toward Georgia fit into "a worsening pattern of behavior over several years."

She cited Russia's "use of oil and gas as a political weapon, its unilateral suspension of the CFE (Conventional Forces in Europe) Treaty, its threat to target peaceful nations with nuclear weapons, its arms sales to states and groups that threaten international security, and its persecution, and worse of Russian journalists, and dissidents, and others," according to the excerpts.

"The picture emerging from this pattern of behavior is that of a Russia increasingly authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad," Rice said.

She said that the United States and its allies Russia's "attack on Georgia has crystallized the course that Russia's leaders are taking -- and brought us to a critical moment for Russia and the world."

Rice said Russia was finding an excuse for its behavior in blaming NATO's eastward expansion to include former soviet territory. Washington has supported efforts by Georgia and Ukraine to join the western alliance.

"With the end of the Cold War, we and our allies have worked to transform NATO -- from an alliance that manned the ramparts of a divided Europe -- to a means for nurturing the growth of a Europe whole, free, and at peace -- and for confronting dangers, like terrorism, that also threaten Russia," she said.

(Source: AFP)

Mood between Russia and West gets worse

BERLIN: Relations between Russia and the West deteriorated further Thursday, with a warning by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that the Kremlin's attempt to rebuild the country had taken a "dark turn" and that a "paranoid, aggressive impulse" from the Russian past was reappearing.

In a speech in Washington on U.S.-Russia relations, Rice also criticized Moscow for using its role as a major energy supplier "as a political weapon against some of its neighbors." She castigated Russia for threatening "journalists, dissidents and others."

"What has become clear is that the legitimate goal of rebuilding Russia has taken a dark turn with the rollback of personal freedoms, the arbitrary enforcement of the law, the pervasive corruption at various levels of Russian society and the paranoid, aggressive impulse which has manifested itself before in Russian history," she said.

(International Herald Tribune)

Ten Russian warships have docked at Syrian port

Israeli military and naval commanders were taken by surprise by Rear Adm. Andrei Baranov's disclosure that 10 Russian warships are already anchored at the Syrian port of Tartus, DEBKAfile’s military sources report.

Moscow and Damascus have worked fast to put in place the agreement reached in Moscow on Sept. 12 by Russian navy commander, Adm. Vladimir Wysotsky and Syrian naval commander Gen. Taleb al-Barri to provide the Russian fleet with a long-term base at Syrian ports. Israel was not aware that this many vessels were involved in the deal.

What most worries Israeli military leaders is an earlier announcement by Adm. Wysotsky that Russia’s Mediterranean assets would subjected to its Black Sea fleet command, thereby placing Russia’s warships near Israel’s shores at the service of Moscow’s contest against the US and NATO in the Caucasian. It is feared that Israel will be dragged into another cold war.

Rear Adm. Baranov disclosed that the warships in Tartus had brought engineering crews to widen and dredge the harbor to accommodate additional, fleet vessels. The crews were also working on expanding Latakia, another Syrian port, possibly for aircraft carriers or guided missile cruisers.

The Russians are making no secret of their intention of using their naval presence in Syrian ports as a deterrent to a possible Israeli air strike against Syria.

(DEBKA)

BREAKING - SKY TV - REUTERS: Russia's Medvedev says NATO provoked Georgia conflict.

Gates Urges Cautious NATO Stance on Russia After Georgia Conflict

With NATO divided over how to respond to a newly assertive Russia, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Thursday that he would urge alliance ministers meeting here to adopt a cautious and deliberate approach that would reassure newer members along the Russian border without provoking hostilities.

Members of a United Nations commission inspected damage in Tskhinvali, in Georgia’s South Ossetia region, on Thursday.
Mr. Gates has said he does not anticipate any armed Russian incursions into the territory of NATO member countries, but said Moscow was more likely to pursue strategies of “pressure and intimidation,” including restricting its supplies of oil and gas, on which Europe depends.

Continued in article...

NYTimes

Medvedev: Russia to restore friendly ties with Georgia

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Friday that his country will do everything possible to restore friendly relations with Georgia, Russian news agencies reported.

Russia and Georgia have maintained fraternal relations for centuries, Medvedev said, noting that over 1 million Georgians live in Russia and regard Russia as their homeland.

"We ... will do everything possible to restore regular, friendly relations," he said at a meeting with representatives of public organizations.

Meanwhile, Medvedev accused NATO of provoking the conflict in Georgia last month, and called for new pan-European security arrangements.

"What did NATO ensure? It only provoked the conflict, nothing else," he said.

Despite tensions with the West, Medvedev said Russia would not be pushed behind a new Iron Curtain.

"We are in fact being pushed onto the development track which is not based on sound, normal and civilized cooperation with other countries, but rests on autonomous development behind thick walls and an Iron Curtain," he said.

"This is not our track. There is no use in returning to the past. We have made our choice," said the president.

Russia and Georgia fought a brief war last month following the Caucasus state's offensive to retake its breakaway region of South Ossetia. Moscow subsequently recognized the republic along with breakaway Abkhazia as independent states, which led Georgia to sever diplomatic ties with Russia.

Many Western powers have criticized Russia for its counterattack against Georgia and recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and sided with Tbilisi, which aspires for NATO membership.

Chinadaily

NATO plans rapid-reaction force to counter Russian aggression

WASHINGTON, September 19 (RIA Novosti) - NATO defense ministers considered at a meeting in London the creation of a rapid-response force to be sent into a country that feels threatened by Russia, the Los Angeles Times said.

The United States and other Western powers have criticized Russia for what they called an invasion of Georgia. Moscow said it was a response to Georgia's offensive to retake breakaway South Ossetia in early August. Tbilisi claimed Russian troops were sent to topple President Mikheil Saakashvili.

"The deployment force being considered would be small, light and defensive in nature," the newspaper said Friday citing an unidentified senior U.S. defense official.

Though the plan is widely supported by NATO member states, it is still unclear who would staff and equip the force, as well as who would have the authority to deploy it and under which circumstances, the paper said.

The project, pushed by the Bush administration, is intended both to reassure European allies and pacify Russia, the paper said.

The majority of Western powers sided with Tbilisi over the South Ossetia crisis, criticizing Russia's military response to Georgia's attack as excessive and also condemning Moscow's August 26 recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

Russia said it was its moral duty to protect civilians and peacekeepers in the region and blamed the United States and other NATO countries for encouraging Georgian aggression by backing President Mikheil Saakashvili and supplying arms and training the ex-Soviet republic's military.

(RIA Novosti)

Update:

I just came back from Crimea. The political crisis is still warming up to something - but at this point it still not clear what.


The Ukrainian politics are at this point completely deadlocked. As expected Yuschenko is vetoing all bills passed by the Parliament, and in response the Parliament is vetoing any decision by Yuschenko. It is now a conflict of attrition. Earlier today the speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament has officially declared that the alliance between Yuschenko's and Timoshenko's parties is over.

If this political deadlock continues, Ukraine faces some tough economic times ahead. No new policies are being passed, and the government is unable to do anything to stop the worsening economy of the country - due to the crisis between the President and Parliament. People throughout Ukraine is calling on both sides to stop the bickering, but it is looking more and more unlikely.

It appears that Yuschenko didn't risk arresting Timoshenko, and the earlier Federal Prosecutor hearing against her didn't reach any conclusion. While Timoshenko's party is now separate from Yuschenko's, she is still not officially allied with pro-Russian 'Party of Regions'.

What is really troubling is that Yuschenko is continuing to hold talks with NATO and meet with NATO members, despite the fact that the Parliament has stated that it will veto any decision concerning NATO. NATO is also adopting the language that makes it seem like Ukraine is on the path into the alliance. This spells more trouble for the already splintered country.





In Crimea the Russians (90% of Crimean population) are holding mass protests against Yuschenko and in support of Russia. I have seen there protests myself in both Sevastopol and Yevpatoria. The locals are saying that should Ukraine join NATO, there is absolutely no way they will remain part of Ukraine. Many locals are adopting a rather separatistic tone. The Crimean local parliament is also becoming increasingly autonomous from the Federal government in Kiev.

The Crimeans are also saying that they are appealing to Russia not to pull the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol. Not only does the fleet reinforce their economy and employement, but it makes them relevant in Kiev's politics.

Also the Crimeans are saying that Yuschenko will attempt to create a police state in Ukraine, if the Parliament decides to oust him. He still controls the country's armed forces, and appears to be preparing for the power struggle ahead.



So in summary - Ukrainian government is paralyzed. This cannot continue for long, because the Ukrainian economy is failing and the government can't do anything to save it. The 2009 national budget proposals are also deadlocked. This creates a crucial time-element. Both sides need to act quick, or else the country and the economy will spiral out of control without active federal legislation.

I would be best for Yuschenko either to stop vetoing Parliament's bills, or simply step down. Otherwise the country will succumb to the political paralysis.

As for Russia - in a speech yesterday Medvedev reiterated that he does not wish for any confrontation with the U.S., and he strongly criticized Condoleeza Rice's militaristic speech. He stated that Russia's realtions with Western Europe are already restored, and that Russia would not mind restoring ties with U.S. - as long as U.S. stops its egotistic warmongering.

Medvedev's speech underlined that Russia's current goal is to restore the trust of European and Asian investors. It seems that Russia is reluctant to enter any Cold War, and so is much of Europe. U.S. however is desperately trying to get a Cold War underway though.

I would be best for Yuschenko either to stop vetoing Parliament's bills, or simply step down. Otherwise the country will succumb to the political paralysis.

Unfortunately, NATO puppets don't care about that. What they want is power from their puppets and an alliance, forced alliance if need be. But I think that with your analysis, it will be bloody if Ukraine goes into an alliance by force...

It seems that Russia is reluctant to enter any Cold War, and so is much of Europe. U.S. however is desperately trying to get a Cold War underway though.

Russia don't want, but could do it if necessary. The US is falling.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Unfortunately, NATO puppets don't care about that. What they want is power from their puppets and an alliance, forced alliance if need be.

It is one thing to create a NATO-backed regime in Georgia, and bring Georgia into NATO. Georgia is a small rather isolated country, with a more gullible and easily brain-washed populations. Saakashvili and his Western PR agents were able to solidify his regime there, and cut off the people from all outside information.

It will be nearly impossible for Yuschenko to repeat the act in Ukraine. Ukrainians know what is going on well-enough, and both the people and the Parliament will not let Yuschenko turn Ukraine into a police-controlled state (like Georgia now it); at least not without a fight.

My guess is that NATO (especially the West European members) will never dare accept Ukraine as a member without the constitutional approval of the Ukrainian Parliament. Such an action could easily thrust the country into a civil conflict, which I am sure is not in the best interests of Europeans.

The problem is - that U.S. may decide to "ally" itself with Ukraine without NATO, and could use Yuschenko's sole approval to base their military assets in Ukraine.

U.S. is far more reckless and dangerous than NATO is at this point, because U.S.'s aggressive tactics in NATO are partially balanced out by more moderate West-European members (France and Germany).

Ukrainian Parliament is the key here. It is preventing further actions towards NATO by Yuschenko. One way around this for him is to dismiss the Parliament - but the Parliament leaders may very well turn around and stage a coup against him.

In my opinion the current deadlock and inaction we are seeing - is the result of both sides being cautious of how the other side could respond. Caution is good. But it also gets us nowhere, and eventually something has to happen.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
But I think that with your analysis, it will be bloody if Ukraine goes into an alliance by force....

Yes - and it has nothing to do with Russia. The Parliament will protest the membership in NATO, and any such action by Yuschenko may be the catalyst for a true civil conflict. The Parliament (Timoshenko's and Yanukovich's parties) is very strong in that it has the constitution and the majority of the people on its side, as well as Russia. Yuschenko however has the army, the policy, and Western backers on his side.

This is clearly a very dangerous scenerio, and the mind doesn't have to wander far to predict how catastrophic the consequences can be.

I think this is why NATO will not go ahead with the alliance. France and Germany will never support such reckless action. And again it comes back to the U.S. - what does the U.S. have in plans for Yuschenko?


We have seen that U.S. is very reckless and is willing to go to great lengths to ascert its dominance. After relative inaction in Georgia, U.S. is seems to be very anxious to flex its muscles.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Russia don't want, but could do it if necessary. The US is falling.

Russia isn't too well off economically as well. But at least Russia has a positive federal surplus and has accumulated sizeable monetary reserves. The issue is - that Russia would be severly strained if it had to face-off against U.S. in a new Cold War. As confident as Russian leadership makes itself appear to be - I think they are still very cautious with any "Cold War" threats, and there is no certainty that Russia would be able to carry on the stand-off.

Based on most recent speeches of Medvedev, I would say that Russia is trying to distance itself from any Cold War rumors. It doesn't want to seem weak either, but it is looking to avoid prolonged contfrontation.



What could happen, if U.S. continues to pave the way towards a Cold War, is that Russia would be driven to ally with China, India, and Iran (and possibly Venezuela/Cuba). China is somewhat reluctant at this point, but the other players are more than willing to come together if need be.

I cannot imagine the U.S. government to be this reckless to actually go ahead with this plan. U.S. learned in the recent Georgian conflict, that Russia will no longer sit aside. If U.S. plans to do something in Ukraine, the outlook is very bad. There is no way this will turn out peacefully like the Orange Revolution. There is still time to avoid violance.

Unfortunatelly for everyone I don't think avoiding violence is what the US gov is after... Failed states that are still running on inertia will usually make a play at militarilly solving their financial woes though...

Russian warships head to the Atlantic, Caribbean

MOSCOW, September 8 (RIA Novosti) - A Russian naval task force departed Monday on a tour of duty in the Atlantic Ocean, including joint naval drills with the Venezuelan navy in November, a Navy spokesman said. (Russian Navy modernized - Image gallery)

"A naval task force from the Northern Fleet, comprising the nuclear-powered missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy, the large ASW ship Admiral Chabanenko, and support ships, left the Severomorsk base early Monday to conduct training exercises in the Atlantic," Capt. 1st Rank Igor Dygalo said.

Pyotr Velikiy is a Kirov (Orlan) class nuclear-powered guided missile heavy cruiser, which has practically unlimited operational range and carries 20 SS-N-19 Shipwreck surface-to-surface missiles with either nuclear or high-explosive warheads and about 500 surface-to-air missiles of different types, supplemented by a large number of other weaponry.

Dygalo said that during the tour of duty the Russian warships would participate in joint naval exercises with the Venezuelan navy on November 10-14, in line with the 2008 training program and in order to expand military cooperation with foreign navies.

"During the exercise, ships and naval aircraft will practice coordinated maneuvering, search-and-rescue, and communications," Dygalo said.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez earlier confirmed that Venezuela would hold joint naval exercises with Russian warships in the Caribbean and said the Russian navy would receive a warm welcome in the Latin American country.

Russia announced last year that its Navy had resumed and would build up a constant presence in different regions of the world's oceans.

A task force from the Northern Fleet, consisting of the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, the Udaloy-Class large AWS ships Admiral Levchenko and Admiral Chabanenko, as well as auxiliary vessels, conducted from December 2007 to February 2008 a two-month tour of duty in the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic.

(RIA Novosti)


Risks seen for U.S. as it freezes out Russia

WASHINGTON -- Nearly six weeks after Russia sent troops into neighboring Georgia, the Bush administration remains deeply divided over whether to retaliate against it -- and some officials fear the internal conflict is already undermining strategically important national security collaborations.

Some senior administration officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney and some hard-liners in the Pentagon, are advocating the continuation of what they confirm has been a White House-imposed communications blackout on most dealings with Russia and a halt to nearly all bilateral initiatives on security matters.

They want to send Russia a message that the United States won't stand for its Aug. 7 incursion through two pro-Moscow breakaway republics and into Georgia, a staunch U.S. ally. They say the sortie was only the latest in a series of hostile actions that require a wholesale recalibration of U.S. security policy, from an inclusive one that treats Moscow as an ally on global security matters to a sharply curtailed approach that considers it an untrustworthy potential enemy.

(Rest of the article: Los Angeles Times)

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Breaking:

Russian drone 'hit over Georgia'

The Georgian military has shot down a Russian reconnaissance drone that was flying over Georgian territory, Georgia's government says.

The drone was downed near the town of Gori, south of the de facto border with breakaway South Ossetia, the interior ministry says.

Russia made no comment on the claim, and Georgia provided no evidence.

Russia recognised the independence of South Ossetia after a short war broke out over the territory last month.

Russia has been withdrawing from Georgia proper under a ceasefire deal.

(BBC News)

[edit on 23-9-2008 by chips]

[edit on 23-9-2008 by chips]

reply to post by chips


A bit of a dodgy story sofar. Georgia claims the drone was shotdown by Georgian police officers.

I don't know what the Georgian police carry as weapons, but if they used sidearms, they're some great shooters.

Russia backs off from cooperating with U.S. on Iran

Russia has announced that it will not participate in a meeting with the United States this week to discuss Iran's nuclear program, the most significant indication yet of how Russia's war with Georgia has spoiled relations regarding other security issues.

Moscow's move apparently scuttled the meeting. The Foreign Ministry issued a biting statement Tuesday that criticized remarks last week by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who declared that Russia had taken "a dark turn" away from democracy and respect for international norms.

A former U.S. ambassador to Moscow, Jack Matlock, and other former U.S. envoys have decried the poor state of ties with Russia and said NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine was not in Washington's or the alliance's interest, Reuters reported from Washington.

At a gathering of five former U.S. and Russian ambassadors, Matlock questioned a central tenet of Bush administration policy: Its firm support for the NATO membership bids of both nations.

Some European countries have doubts about the policy, and some U.S. analysts have blamed it for helping provoke the brief war last month between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

www.iht.com...

Breaking News:

Ruslan Yamadayev, former Russian MP and the brother of Chechen warlord Sulim Yamadayev was assasinated in downtown Moscow today. If you remember - Yamadayev's Vostok battalion was one of the first Russian forces to enter South Ossetia to repel the Georgian attack. The leader of that battalion is Sulim Yamadayev. The car in which Ruslan was shot actually belonged to Sulim - which means he was the likely target.

The most obvious reason for assasination has nothing to do with South Ossetia however, but with Chechen leader Kadyrov. The Yamadayev brothers have recently had a falling-out with Kadyrov, and were practically kicked out of Georgia and had their political positions revoked. Their clan is second in power to Kadyrov's and this assasination hints at an ongoing power struggle between the main warlords of Chechnya. Yamadayev is a very big name in Chechnya - and this assasination will likely have major consequences.


Former Russian MP Yamadayev killed in Moscow

Ruslan Yamadayev, a former member of the Russian parliament's lower house, the State Duma, was gunned down in central Moscow on Wednesday, an Interior Ministry official said.

Earlier reports said that the victim of the attack was Ruslan's brother Sulim Yamadayev, a former commander of the Russian Defense Ministry's Vostok battalion in Chechnya.

Yamadayev was driving his Mercedes car in downtown Moscow, when he was attacked by unknown gunmen at 5:20 pm Moscow time (13:20 GMT). The attackers shot his car and then fled the scene in an Audi 80 car, sources said.

"At 5:20 p.m. on the Smolenskaya embankment a man approached a Mercedes car, which had stopped at a red traffic light, and shot former member of the State Duma Ruslan Yamadayev, who was behind the driver's wheel at the time," said Valery Gribakin, a spokesman for the Russian Interior Ministry.

Meanwhile, a law enforcement source said Yamadayev was riding in a car with former commandant of Chechnya Lt. Gen. Sergei Kizyun. The source added that Kizyun was seriously wounded and taken to a hospital.

en.rian.ru...

I THINK THAT GEORGIA LOST SOUTH OSETIA AND ABKHAZIA FOREVER.
If we want to live in the world built using democracy,so we have to accept it!!! South Osetia and Abkhazia populated with people wich are diffrent from Georgians,with different customs and traditions,and different from georgian languages,so let it be!
Wish to those in South Osetia and Abkhazia peace in future!