Are we hours away from war with Iran??

IF war is to happen within hours, it all comes down to Israel and other countries in that area, especially Saudia Arabia and Egypt.

Syria and Iran have a military pact, meaning if one is attacked both go to war, so any attack on Iran needs someone to deal with Syria. In comes Israel.

The likely hood is if any attack is being planned, talks with Israel will be happening as we speak because the UK/EU (Europe is looking for a reason to flex its power) needs Israel to keep Syria busy.

IF this part was planned it was NOT planned by Iran. WHY on EARTH would they want to start a war they know they will have a slim chance of winning in the first place? They know its going to be a solely air war and bombardment war which they CANNOT sustain unless they have a secret ace NO ONE knows about up their sleeve. If ANYONE wants it to get out of hand it is the US governmen and the UK government. Also the CIA could well be the ones working to cause the troubles, remember the ones who captures the sailors are NOT I repeat N-O-T regular Iranian navy, they are their own organization. For all we know the CIA PAID them to do this and cause trouble. If that be the case I bet Iran has its special ops going over hill over dale trying to hunt these people down.
Think about it, Iran has been working with and around the UN for years now, and by working around I mean working with Russia and China. If anyone is harmed it was not Iran, if they had wanted a war they would have done it BEFORE the US navy had the extra carriers arrive. Irony is it not? Wait untill your ENEMY is in position then do something? Does that not negate war? You hit when they are NOT ready if you want a war...

IF this part was planned it was NOT planned by Iran. WHY on EARTH would they want to start a war they know they will have a slim chance of winning in the first place? They know its going to be a solely air war and bombardment war which they CANNOT sustain unless they have a secret ace NO ONE knows about up their sleeve. If ANYONE wants it to get out of hand it is the US governmen and the UK government. Also the CIA could well be the ones working to cause the troubles, remember the ones who captures the sailors are NOT I repeat N-O-T regular Iranian navy, they are their own organization. For all we know the CIA PAID them to do this and cause trouble. If that be the case I bet Iran has its special ops going over hill over dale trying to hunt these people down.
Think about it, Iran has been working with and around the UN for years now, and by working around I mean working with Russia and China. If anyone is harmed it was not Iran, if they had wanted a war they would have done it BEFORE the US navy had the extra carriers arrive. Irony is it not? Wait untill your ENEMY is in position then do something? Does that not negate war? You hit when they are NOT ready if you want a war...

Originally posted by Vekar
IF this part was planned it was NOT planned by Iran.

Iran has been supporting and funding terrorist in the South of Iraq to attack British troops, so I beg to differ.

Seeings the UN vote was today and Iran has some officials arrested by Americans, its obvious that this was planned.

Its a stupid mistake because if Iran does not step down and hand over the troops you can expect the UK to get them back, via force if we must.

Plus, on a historic note, the UK diplomatic ties with Iran are a lot worse then American-Iranian relations. Goes back to the days when Iran had a monarch (which the UK supported).

Originally posted by Vekar
Also the CIA could well be the ones working to cause the troubles, remember the ones who captures the sailors are NOT I repeat N-O-T regular Iranian navy, they are their own organization. For all we know the CIA PAID them to do this and cause trouble. If that be the case I bet Iran has its special ops going over hill over dale trying to hunt these people down.

IMHO your comments are way off base.

The people that seized the UK servicemen were part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Naval section - i.e. true hardliners and followers of their leaders cause. So you're right, they are not part of the "regular" navy, but to imply they are a bunch of independents is absurd.

The fact they have been taken to Tehran should also have been a good indication as to who is involved.

Cheers,
Zep

Originally posted by infinite
Plus, on a historic note, the UK diplomatic ties with Iran are a lot worse then American-Iranian relations. Goes back to the days when Iran had a monarch (which the UK supported).

Recently the opposite has been the case. American-Iranian relations are non-existent but the UK government has been central in getting both parties around the table over the last few months. The UK and Iran currently have diplomatic relations but if this sort of thing carries on in the future I'm not sure how long that will last.

Cheers,
Zep

Originally posted by Zep Tepi
The UK and Iran currently have diplomatic relations but if this sort of thing carries on in the future I'm not sure how long that will last.

We have ended diplomatic ties with them in the past and it is likely that we will if the troops are not back home by Monday. If diplomatic ties are cut then you can expect some hard action taken.

Thankfully the rules of engagement were followed and no gun shots were fired...else we really could be "hours away from way with Iran".

Although the rules are in place as a de-escalatory measure, Admiral Sir Alan West did mention...

If we find this is going to be a standard practice we need to think very carefully about what rules of engagement we want and how we operate. One can't allow as a standard practice nations to capture a nation's servicemen. That is clearly wrong.

Either way, lets just hope we get our equipment back this time.

Originally posted by Vekar
For all we know the CIA PAID them to do this and cause trouble.

As Zep Tepi intimated...I think it's safe to say that the CIA is not funding the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

infinite...thanks for briefing the local (UK) response. Please keep it coming.

Peace &
Good Fortune
OBE1

Just a quick note,

You have to remember that its the UK that is leading this, not the US. The UN move was pushed by the UK. Plus this new development is interesting;




Jpost

As I said, this now comes down to Israel. If, as expected, Israel goes after Hizbullah then Iran is going to be dealt with. If the British troops are still held hostage by Iran and Israel is facing potential war with Hizbullah (maybe Syria?) then war will happen.

Next few days are very vital.

Originally posted by stumason

Iran is actually running out of oil so there is no major concern for the oil companies there…

Credible sources please? All I've seen to support this argument is some spurios CIA affiliated report. Current estimates put Iranian Oil reserves at about 15% of global reserves. That's alot of Oil.

There have been many references to the decline of the petrochemical industries of Iran.

Iran Oil Revenue Quickly Drying Up, Analysis Says

Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis published yesterday in a journal of the National Academy of Sciences.

Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.

Iran: U.S. Expert Predicts Oil-Export Crisis Within A Decade

RFE/RL: You've said in your study that Iran could run out of oil for export as soon as eight years from now. How is that possible in a country that has huge oil reserves?

Roger Stern: It's a good question, and I must say that my results surprised even me. But the having of an oil reserve and the getting of that oil from the ground are very different things. The first is just an accident of nature, and the second is really an economic activity. You might recall that the Soviet Union, for example, was very amply blessed with natural resources yet had great difficulty in lifting oil in the 1980s. So it's possible to have a resource and yet to manage it badly. And the analogy between Iran and the Soviet Union is pretty strong: Iran has the five-year plans, the state-planned economy, [and] the very high participation of the state in the economy, although it's partially privatized. So it's those obstacles that are driving Iranian exports down.

In my mind this statement appears to build a strong case for the large oil companies actually wanting to go to war with Iran....

All the best,

NeoN HaZe.

nothing to do with oil.

UK troops have been taken hostage by a Country that is trying to get UK, US or Israel to attack them.

With Iran isolated on the main stage, not support with China or Russia, it is time to consider using force to deal with them.

Lets just hope it doesnt, come to the UK attacking Iran....

But as far as I have seen via news reports, there is no way in hell is Iran gonna release them servicemen/women...

Has anyone seen Blair saying anything about this?? I haven't so far....

He should issue an ultimatium if they are not released.....

Release them now or suffer da consequence (use tactical nukes if he needs to)

These behavior seems out of line with what the Iranians do, they are not ones for direct conflict, but rather just feeding materials to people that will piss us off.

I doubt that this has come from the highest orderin IRan, its just not in line with how they are operatoing.

As for the person that aserted that this could be a CIA or other operative is not so far off. If we consult our history files, we will find that our goverment has taken steps to start a conflict because they think it would be advatages. Does anyone remember the Gulf of Tolkin incidenct that started Vietnam? How the event had its write up and anouncement before the event took place, that the entire event was fabricated and premeditated.

With 9-11 consipricies, this is some of the most compeling evidence, as this shows to what means the people in power will manipulate what is realy going on for thier own good.

The countdown to Iran has started, we have seen the bait put out, all we need now is some Meadia to give the outrage WAY TOO MUCH COVERAGE

"My steadfast claim all along, for the last 18 months, ever since Iran showed up on the radar, is that Iran is more a story about a wall to cut the West from new energy supply, and associated banking of oil money. The same brilliant politically motivated geniuses who gave us the WMD lame argument as cause for war continue to ply their trade. They have given us nuclear proliferation as the argument for attacking Iran. Sure, they might be on a slow track for nuclear refinement, but oil pipelines and a major Russian alliance and Chinese mega energy contracts and befriending former Soviet Republics in “Chaostan” and selling oil in euro transactions and integrated regional energy & military weapons contracts and monumental accumulation of wealth (Western debt) in the East and power shift from West to East, reaction to these powerful forces is the real true valid unmistakable motives for war. The American public is a bit too ignorant, hapless, distracted, uninformed, and conveniently sleepy to properly grasp the issue."

Read full text: www.financialsense.com...

Originally posted by Neon Haze

In my mind this statement appears to build a strong case for the large oil companies actually wanting to go to war with Iran....

Not to drive this thread off-topic, but I think it's obvious that control of oil distribution would be one incentive for war with Iran.

Again, I really appreciate the input from those closer to the ground so to speak...in the UK.

Peace &
Good Fortune
OBE1

This is a stand off, they are going to keep demanding things. They may even execute one or 2 of them.

Or maybe 15 soldiers were not really caught, and this is a counter intelligence ploy. They are staging this occurrence as a reason to send in more troops, then the American forces must support its allies of course.

Dun dun dun....

The countdown to Iran has started, we have seen the bait put out, all we need now is some Meadia to give the outrage WAY TOO MUCH COVERAGE

The media in the UK is all redy given this alot of coverge, All the major UK news Services are, So yeah unless Iran backs off and hands them service men/women over, then the countdown, has begun, but Has Blair got the bottle to do anything about this, thats my main concern.....

They are staging this occurrence as a reason to send in more troops, then the American forces must support its allies of course.

I dont think its a mock capture or kidnapp, it is genuine.....

It really is not an American problem, it is a British one, an We british will deal with it in our own way, no offense to our cousins across the Atlantic, supposes though if it comes to it, our big cousin will offer some help, alon with our friends in europe.......

i think the US will goto war with CHavez before going to war with Iram its much closer and chavez keeps pokin at old GW

ut seriously i think that iran wouldnt be crazy enough to shoot themselves in the foot defiance is one thing acts of agresion is another. so as some of you fine fellow atsers pointed out this is probably a rogue group maybe payed by the US. even though the US and UK would love to invade iran they really dont have the manpower right now, but of course things can change rather quickly if the word nuke starts flying around.

[edit on 3/24/2007 by razor1000]

"Iran is just flexing a bit of miltary muscle , theres no way they would want to escalate it any further , theyll release the UK soldiers within a few days no doubt."
________________

That's my thought too. Iran's just a bit or more pissed at UN sanctions which had already happened and possibly told Russia's intentions to vote for the additional sanctions to come, which happened today.

I would think even Iran's bRass will consider not doing anything more than release UK Soldiers PDQ. They must have had some news source back during the 'Falkland War', they hope.

Dallas