Are we hours away from war with Iran??

Originally posted by CX
2. Am i wrong in thinking that what with the current situation and tension surrounding that area, we are actualy lucky that the Iranians did'nt use thier weapons if they thought thier waters were being tresspassed in? They detained the troops, yes at gunpoint but at least they did'nt just open fire.

Not sure if it's lucky... the Iranians know that opening fire is the absolute worst course of action they could have taken. It would be nothing short of an act of war, and under international law the United Kingdom would be justified in taking further action. Detaining these sailors and marines is the second worse course. What they should have done is - if the British ships had ventured into Iranian waters (which is not confirmed... they either drifted their accidentally or were 'escorted' there by Iranian ships according to the news reports so far) - informed them of their mistake and asked them to leave. If they failed to cooperate, then detain them. Think about it... telling them they were in the wrong and asking them to leave would have made Iran look a lot more responsible and diplomatic if they have taken that course of action.

I'm a brit and was also a member of the armed forces for a number of years. Here is my take, along with some observations.

The commander of the HMS Cornwall said in an interview broadcast on Sky News that his men acted with extreme restraint (or words to that effect) during the event, implying they could have retaliated using force but chose not to through being mindful that such actions could result in a massive escalation of tensions in the area.

Bizzarely, especially in light of today's events, Britain has been acting as a kind of mediator recently between Iran and the US. They have been instrumental in getting all sides around the table at various talks and not always with the direct approval of the US. Iran's actions in taking those 15 men prisoner today is highly likely to trigger an about face on the side of the UK government. The operation took place in Iraqi waters and as such must be seen as extreme provocation on the behalf of the Iranians. When this happened previously a couple of years ago, the brits were operating in waters that were disputed. Not today. The commander of the US 5th fleet said the brits were definitely taken from Iraqi waters. The marines themselves know which areas are disputed and they carry GPS devices to be certain of their location at all times, just so events like those today do not happen.

IMO, this was a calculated act on behalf of the Iranians and if they do not return those guys unharmed within a couple of days, they need to be subjected to some very harsh measures, both economical and military. The Royal Navy and the Royal Marines are acting as part of a UN sanctioned force in that area and the Iranians need to be told where to get off. Seeing as their president was part of the group that kidnapped those (144?) hostages all those years ago I doubt he will ever get the message unless it is sent with force.

Today's events won't be due to a "mistake" on the Iranians part, they will be part of a plan designed to benefit them in some way. What that plan is can only be guessed at, but there have been some good possibilities mentioned in this thread already.

We're definitely moving into a new phase wrt the middle east, this has been known for some time. With the current leadership in Iran, I believe a military conflict of some kind is inevitable and it's just a matter of when. I don't think this will be the catalyst for an escalation (depends on whether those men are returned unharmed I suppose), but an escalation will occur eventually.

Btw, what difference does it make how many men the Iranian army can call upon? Saddam made that same mistake also. A military action against Iran can take many forms and does not neccesarily involve the use of large numbers of ground troops.

Cheers,
Zep

Originally posted by semperfoo

Originally posted by marg6043

Funny that nobody seems to point to the fact that Neither US or the Uk have any claims to the waters on the persian gulf.

Oops, I forgot US and coalition . . . I mean . . . Uk owns Iraq.

What the F are you on about? right now we are trying to prop up a struggling democracy in the middle east that currently cant fend for themselves. We are the force multiplier there. They were in Iraqi waters. We have every right to be there in time of war and under the circumstances we are in.

For 1, the people dont WANT you in their country.
For 2, there's no proof WHERE these soliders were when they were detained.
For 3, we have NO RIGHT what so ever to be in this part of the world, with such a large military base, threatenining nations.
For 4, when you say prop up democracy, you mean creating a cash cow, dont you?

If Iran are building nuclear weapons, show me proof, SOLID proof.
Because accusations with no proof led us into the BS that is Iraq, and ill be damned if i watch it happen again.

At least no one has said - yet - " Nuke the site from orbit, it's the only way to be sure..." I'm all for a peaceful solution to this problem. It would be a shame to see more beheadings on CNN, and I truly hope Iran wakes up to the fact that they are outmanned, outgunned and outclassed in this case.

Originally posted by Zep Tepi
The commander of the US 5th fleet said the brits were definitely taken from Iraqi waters. The marines themselves know which areas are disputed and they carry GPS devices to be certain of their location at all times, just so events like those today do not happen.

This has happened many times, with Iran taking prisonsers before in this exact same situation...
There's no proof where they were atm, and while I do agree with you that gps devices and so forth are used to ensure this doesnt happen 'by mistake' There certainly must be times when it happens on purpose.
Also, the US has admitted that special ops HAVE crossed into Iran on occasion... so we know the 'coalition' doesnt mine breaking the rules and impeeding on Irans territory.

Also, The US has kidnapped Iranian delegates in Iraq, with high suspicion they are involved in the general being taken, so while I dont see this as a pivitol 'break out of the norm' event, I believe its simply in retaliation, and a sign.

Plus, how do you know the Iranians DONT have the tech to maniuplate GPS devices and send them of course?

IMO, this was a calculated act on behalf of the Iranians and if they do not return those guys unharmed within a couple of days, they need to be subjected to some very harsh measures, both economical and military.

Calculated yes, but I do think the brits WERE in their waters.
For Iran to pinch british soliders, from neutral zones... is to much of a kick in the nads of the military in the region.
If Iran wanted to escelate things, there's a lot better, and useful acts they could of done, than just take a handful of marines... clearly painting themselves as the offender...

The Royal Navy and the Royal Marines are acting as part of a UN sanctioned force in that area and the Iranians need to be told where to get off. Seeing as their president was part of the group that kidnapped those (144?) hostages all those years ago I doubt he will ever get the message unless it is sent with force.

hopefully your taling about a different UN agreement in regards to Iraq.
Because the UN never sanctioned or Agreed to whats taking place in Iraq..I believe the word Kofi used was 'illegial'
Again there may be a different UN agreement for the Gulf waters.
Also, there's no proof ahmajadine was involved in the hostage scenario...
Sepculation is rife.. but you cannot accuse him without proof.

Today's events won't be due to a "mistake" on the Iranians part, they will be part of a plan designed to benefit them in some way. What that plan is can only be guessed at, but there have been some good possibilities mentioned in this thread already.

We're definitely moving into a new phase wrt the middle east, this has been known for some time. With the current leadership in Iran, I believe a military conflict of some kind is inevitable and it's just a matter of when. I don't think this will be the catalyst for an escalation (depends on whether those men are returned unharmed I suppose), but an escalation will occur eventually.

I agree, The Visa debacle taking place, the chemical attacks in Iraq, the dems spending bill passing..... The times becoming pretty ripe for a significant event if the hawks plan on taking this the next step.

Btw, what difference does it make how many men the Iranian army can call upon? Saddam made that same mistake also. A military action against Iran can take many forms and does not neccesarily involve the use of large numbers of ground troops.

True, But unlike Iraq, Iran reaches into Israel... into the Caspian region.. the straits of Hormuz... hezbollah agents dotted around the world....
Iran actually have an airforce... long range missiles.. and martyr squads.. they can cause a lot of hassle.

[edit on 23-3-2007 by Agit8dChop]

Israel could easily defeat Iran, so I don't know why they're trying to screw around with the Britts. Perhaps they know we're too chicken to defend ourselves, and take advantage, like they have for the last decade.

its the god damn end game unfolding right beneath our eyes.

bush is taking no notice of congress or the American people its all pre-written . sit back and don't enjoy the ride people.

There won't be no war over this episode. Like it happened in 2004 where 4 sailors were captured, humiliated on Iranian television, then released, something similar will happen here. BP and Shell are investing heavily in Iran right now, they won't allow war.

Who do you think has the last word, Dubaya and Tony-boy... or big oil?

Originally posted by Joshua Crick
Israel could easily defeat Iran...

really?... like they 'defeated' Hezbollah last time in Lebanon?...

what planet do you live on?

Originally posted by untilted
really?... like they 'defeated' Hezbollah last time in Lebanon?...

what planet do you live on?

They didn't defeat Hezbollah because that would involve basically killing everybody in the country to make sure you got them all. They did horrible damage to Lebanon, and they weren't even the objective. Israel could destroy Iran as a country.

Originally posted by khunmoon
There won't be no war over this episode. Like it happened in 2004 where 4 sailors were captured, humiliated on Iranian television, then released, something similar will happen here. BP and Shell are investing heavily in Iran right now, they won't allow war.

Who do you think has the last word, Dubaya and Tony-boy... or big oil?

Hey.. If it was as simple and as clear cut as that then there wouldn't be any need for war other than the war you choose.

I'm saying that this could easily spiral into war.

Iran is actually running out of oil so there is no major concern for the oil companies there…

What do you think would be the response to 15 dead captives??

All it would take now is one mad suicide bomber to detonate near where they are being kept.

Until this is resolved and our men are back safely... we are on a count down to war...

NeoN HaZe.

Originally posted by Neon Haze

Until this is resolved and our men are back safely... we are on a count down to war...

NeoN HaZe.

I sure hope not... but it does seem likely. The USA has been picking a fight with Iran for a while now, and Iran has been picking a fight with the USA also.

I believe the Iranians are just doing this to show that they still have 'power' in the region - but being this stupid could easily be determined as an act of war.

If the UK goes to war with Iran, the USA will follow. I wonder if Iran isn't doing this because they have nuclear technology and wish to use it because of their hate for the west...

Most of these problems could have been dealt with if the west had alternative fuels - at least then, the wars of the middle east would be isolated between Islamic sects. Yeah, that is an isolationalist statement - but it would be beneficial to everyone involved. The radical Islamists could fight amongst themselves and that little section of the world fenced in to keep the children in their playground (yeah, that includes our children here too).

I wish everyone (Governments included) would just step back for a moment and take a deeeeeep breath...

Don't Say We Did Not Warn You!

Id like to ask everyone here to calm down, and observe the pattern of behaviour of the regular members here on ATS, and indeed on all other forums similar to this.

Why? Because right now, all the shills and people designed to slander/confuse are getting erections over this Iran "kidnapping" story.

Iran would not be stupid enough to do this at the current time, unless the soldiers are infact guilty.

Ahmadinejad is not going to play into the Neocons hands. He is not going to give them an excuse to obliterate his country, but at the same time he is not going to let them make up a pack of lies to lead the world on another WMD treasure hunt, only to find nothing.


It is clear to me that we (Britain) are clearly guilty of trying to spark off something. Are the warhawks getting desperate for a nuclear holocaust? I think so

Originally posted by shrunkensimon
Id like to ask everyone here to calm down, and observe the pattern of behaviour of the regular members here on ATS, and indeed on all other forums similar to this.

Um, ok - so you make comments like this, but then the rest of your post seems to be pro Iranian? What?

Iran would not be stupid enough to do this at the current t ime, unless the soldiers are infact guilty.

You obviously don't know much about the Persian culture - how many people died in the Iran Iraq war? Millions. Of course they are stupid enough to do this, they even fight amongst themselves because they can't agree on which prophet is right and wrong. They have been fighting and taking people against their will for thousands of years.

Ahmadinejad is not going to play into the Neocons hands. He is not going to give them an excuse to obliterate his country, but at the same time he is not going to let them make up a pack of lies to lead the world on another WMD treasure hunt, only to find nothing.

Oh, I see you know Ahmadinejad personally then? I mean by the statements you are making it seems like you have talked personally with him about this issue... that makes you lose credibility even more then taking Iran's side.

It is clear to me that we (Britain) are clearly guilty of trying to spark off something. Are the warhawks getting desperate for a nuclear holocaust? I think so

How do you know this? How did this become clear to you. I am from the USA - and I don't think anyone wants a nuclear war - but you seem to mention that 'warhawks' are getting desperate for some Armageddon - its humanities basic instinct to survive - now you are telling everyone on this thread/board that some people want to destroy the world through the use of nuclear arms? That is just absurd supposition.


[edit on 24-3-2007 by The Vagabond]

Im not pro-Iranian, at all. I do not take sides. What guides me is what i see as best for humanity.

The fact that the US has sent firepower to the Gulf since Christmas in an attempt to pressure Iran should tell you that the people in Washington are doing everything possible to provoke Iran.

They want another war. You think Iraq was just a "mistake"? It was a war drawn up to fit an agenda, and this Iran "crisis" is merely part 2 in the agenda.

To suggest our governments want whats best for the people is absolutely absurd. Every part of government is against whats best for us, and not just in international relations!

so what if Iran has nukes can they deliver them against the western country's like the UK or even the USA? if the did try that then I'm sure our secret anti nuke weapons would obliterate the incoming missiles, then Iran would be a pile of rubble after lots of mini nukes or possible we would even use a full nuke on them who knows our response to an Iranian nuke attack that would most likely fail with our secret technology in place, and if you think we ain't got any then that means we dont plan for the future or event like these which we do do, what secret technology we got no one publicly knows but be sure we have it and its ready for defence and attack, we have had 62 years since WW2 to prepare the secret technology....... how longs Iran had???


i sure hope its not war, but if it is the British public will be 100% behind this new war unlike the Iraq war which is divided, we would also have no need to save people in Iran from bombs as they would all be enemy's so it will be very different from Iraq war, we would be free to obliterate and level Iran to the ground with conventionally weapons or even next generation weapons which we sure have too be great testing ground wouldn't it bit like what Israel did i think with some weapons.

now if it is war then it would be Iran and who else? VS UK, USA, Israel, plus maybe other EU country's too as the UK forces are there under the UN.

[edit on 24-3-2007 by blobby]

Originally posted by shrunkensimon
Im not pro-Iranian, at all. I do not take sides. What guides me is what i see as best for humanity.

The fact that the US has sent firepower to the Gulf since Christmas in an attempt to pressure Iran should tell you that the people in Washington are doing everything possible to provoke Iran.

They want another war. You think Iraq was just a "mistake"? It was a war drawn up to fit an agenda, and this Iran "crisis" is merely part 2 in the agenda.

To suggest our governments want whats best for the people is absolutely absurd. Every part of government is against whats best for us, and not just in international relations!

Well, lets hope when the president of the USA is out of office things change. The majority of the USA supports massive troop withdrawal (as I am sure the UK does too). The democrats have already put conditions on building up a force in Iraq - that they have to be withdrawn in a year or so...

I do think Iraq was a planned mistake - instead of having to fight terrorists in the USA, the USA drew out the terrorists in Iraq - and they fell for it. There were no WMDs - it was a chess move on the USA's part. Now, that Iran is making moves toward nuclear armament - the USA is again playing chess with them...

I think we need to stop using oil - period. Then we wouldn't even care what goes on over there. Yeah, that sounds like an ignorant comment - but hey they have been fighting since the beginning of time.

Lets continue on without them - use neo-fuel sources.

I just hope the UK soldiers are OK...

Originally posted by kroms33
Well, lets hope when the president of the USA is out of office things change.

The fact that you just said this tells me everything i need to know. Bush is merely a pawn. Changing the president will not do alot, if anything.

Originally posted by blobby

i sure hope its not war, but if it is the British public will be 100% behind this new war unlike the Iraq war which is divided, we would also have no need to save people in Iran from bombs as they would all be enemy's so it will be very different from Iraq war, we would be free to obliterate and level Iran to the ground with conventionally weapons or even next generation weapons which we sure have too be great testing ground wouldn't it bit like what Israel did i think with some weapons.

[edit on 24-3-2007 by blobby]

Great thinking blobby!! Do you realize that the majority to the Iranian citizens are very friendly to the west? It's mainly the mullahs and politicos in Iran that are doing all the saber rattling. And you just want to obliterate and level Iran. Maybe a little reasearch would be in order before we commit genocide on anyone.

www.answers.com...

If this is the cognitive ability of the youth. God help us.

[edit on 24-3-2007 by whaaa]