Aerial Event Megathread

originally posted by: Zaphod58
It’s believed that the three smaller were routine high altitude balloons that completed their mission, probably for a commercial or scientific organization, and were forgotten about. They were on their way back down when they were seen on radar.

So how does a high-altitude balloon linger over the US long enough for whoever sent it up to forget about it?

Aren't the prevailing winds too strong especially at this time of year?

and why would they need to be "metallic" as the Pentagon described the one shot down over Lake Huron to be?

originally posted by: Zaphod58
It’s believed that the three smaller were routine high altitude balloons that completed their mission, probably for a commercial or scientific organization, and were forgotten about. They were on their way back down when they were seen on radar.

So how does a high-altitude balloon linger over the US long enough for whoever sent it up to forget about it?

Aren't the prevailing winds too strong especially at this time of year?

and why would they need to be "metallic" as the Pentagon described the one shot down over Lake Huron to be?

a reply to: putnam6

They didn’t linger. They were all detected coming in from outside the US. The material would depend on what the mission and payload is.

I’m surprised cartels haven’t used this tech for ages. How easy would it be to float bricks of this or that or millions of fentanyl pills too high to see, too silent to make a peep, and cut it loose precisely over the GPS point agreed on. Maybe this will give them a new idea. As for what it is though, I’ve no clue.

This is just a random "what if" thought I have, and I have a lot of those let me tell you. What if this was a test of some sort of Nuclear weapon delivery system that could get in past our radar and drop bombs? If it was something like that, I sure am glad we caught them.

a reply to: aapeltzz

There are very few high altitude balloons that can carry a payload that heavy. The balloons involved here are nowhere near capable of carrying that kind of weight.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Can you give me a quick summary? I've recently returned and curious. The whole balloon thing is very odd.

a reply to: mr-lizard

Started with a large balloon seen near Alaska. It was carrying an electronics package for surveillance. It was allowed to cross the US while extracting our own Intel on it before shooting it down just off the east coast. Three now have been seen, but much smaller and lower altitudes, and shot down over Alaska, the Yukon Territory, and Lake Huron.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Just reading that US intel knew it had been launched and had been tracking it. CBS Twitter link

So, some type of counter surveillance by allowing it to traverse the continent, watching/listening to its transmissions, or whatever it was doing?

a reply to: SirHardHarry

That’s exactly what it was. Everything monitoring it has some kind of electronics intercept package mounted.

a reply to: SirHardHarry

The CBS report claimed that the Chinese balloon made an abrupt course change, "making a 'beeline' for Alaska" after drifting from its launch point toward Hawaii.

Does anyone know if there was a wind current, at any altitude, during that period, that could have matched the stated course change?

If there wasn't such a current, are they saying it flew north under its own power?


Not easy to do on solar cells and batties; especially at those altitudes.


Cool thing about balloons; like sailing ships, if you know where their voyage starts, and the currents/winds available, you can predict their course, at least to a point.

But all that goes out the window if your boat, or balloon, is powered, and not dependent on "currents".

a reply to: Mantiss2021

I can't find a map from around the 2nd, but the current jet stream map shows it coming down to above Hawaii from Asia and then basically a straight line from there up to Alaska before curving back down over the US.

a reply to: Zaphod58

given the altitude that these balloons are floating around at, it should be noted that in the stratosphere there are signs the polar vortex is becoming very unstable. This messing with the jet stream can go a long way in pushing these high-altitude balloons around.

Note for readers, the destabilization of the polar air in the stratosphere is a very common thing and happens every few years so it's neither conspiratorial nor unexpected by weather nuts, so there isn't anything to be alarmed about. This being said, this destabilized air might make future balloon paths seem more erratic than these current ones.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: putnam6

They didn’t linger. They were all detected coming in from outside the US. The material would depend on what the mission and payload is.

Let's stay on Lake Huron object, some theories suggest this is the balloon they lost in Montana, for it to travel that far that fast it was quicker than the upper-level winds were during that time.

Below are the current winds above 15,000 they have change directions since Fri/Sat and still it would be difficult to get a balloon over Lake Huron that quickly.

Therefore are you suggesting a bogus bogey in Montana and another completely new object/ballon over Lake Michigan and Lake Huron

a reply to: putnam6

The wind map on the day it was found over the Great Lakes showed jet stream winds over 100 mph, with areas even higher over northern Montana, and the eastern part of the Dakotas, out over the Lakes. It was continuously that strong from the Dakotas to the Lakes.

a reply to: sussy
Duh! ever try to read the numbers on a mailbox when driving past at 180 miles per hour? It's pretty difficult.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: Spiramirabilis

They aren’t asleep, it’s how radar works. Radar gathers a LOT of data. It can see everything from clouds to birds. You don’t want all that data on the screen 24/7/365. Your operators won’t be able to keep track of everything. So the computer applies a filter. When it detects a target it analyses the signal strength, and speed of the target. If both are above certain values the return is displayed on the screen. If one or both are below those values, the computer removes the return from the screen.

A balloon, or an airship are both going to be well below those values. So as far as the computer is concerned, as long as the filter is in place, it doesn’t exist. That’s how all radar systems operate, to prevent dozens of ghost targets from appearing every day.

For a human operator yes, how about machine learning that can parse through data and learn how to detect anomalies such as these with a margin of confidence, to where the human operators only have to look at the objects that the model identified as radar returns of interest.

The models could be trained on years worth of radar data and human identification of those contacts.

I am sure that has to be in the works and may have been what was being tested in this scenario. I'm sure if there is something like that, it is highly classified.

I wouldn't be surprised if the first balloon was the mothership for the smaller objects that were found. The object over Lake Huron had strings that were dangling. Those strings may have attached it to the first balloon which was remotely cut free or dropped at some point before the large ballon was spotted and eventually ferried over to Lake Huron, Yukon, and Alaska.

It's far-fetched, but stranger things have happened.

a reply to: Zaphod58

i have a serious question about these "shoot-downs" of these "balloons". and that is why are hey using MISSILES to shoot down a balloon? especially missiles that the news commented cost HALF A MILLION DOLLARS EACH? even worse, at least one missed shot, which means one of those balloons cost at least one million dollars, plus whatever costs were involved with the aircraft used, such as fuel and maintenance.

in fact the secondary question is, why did they not use their GUNS to shoot down "balloons"? a tried and true method of taking out balloons and other lighter than air craft. one that would have been a whole hell of a lot cheaper. better yet by using bullets, said balloons would have more of a chance of not just crashing lightly, saving any equipment from being heavily damaged. it would as well likely be a slower "crash", letting them keep track of where it was falling to, making the searches for them a lot easier.

originally posted by: AlexandrosTheGreat
I’m surprised cartels haven’t used this tech for ages. How easy would it be to float bricks of this or that or millions of fentanyl pills too high to see, too silent to make a peep, and cut it loose precisely over the GPS point agreed on. Maybe this will give them a new idea. As for what it is though, I’ve no clue.

for all we know they have been. if you don't know, they have found small drones carrying things like guns and drugs into Canada from the US. in fact that is even a possibility from the Chinese. since while as far as we know china isn't a major player in the North American drug trade. in Asia, China is very like Columbia is to North America. being the biggest illegal drug supplier of Asia. in Asia China is also behind much of the smuggling. especially foods like pork, which tends to be contaminated by swine flu, destroying the pork producers. so we can't count out them dropping things like invasive species to do damage, as well as things like tainted meat to destroy meat production. then there is of course the question of are they dropping supplies that they might have problems smuggling into North America, such as suitcase Nukes.