The Myth of Herd Immunity to SARS-CoV-2

a reply to: strongfp

They waffled a couple times...

but ended up settling on letting nature run it's course.

a reply to: Asmodeus3

You assume I don't look beyond the headlines or that all news outlets are some sort of state propoganda.

Sweden took the same route as here, basic public health suggestions. But dragged their feet until late 2020 to start taking it seriously.
I mean, in the end it sort of worked out, but at some points in time they had higher mortality rate than the US, so now it becomes an ethics question. Leave the virus to rip through the population to achieve herd immunity, or do something about it.

Wait but maybe booster 13 will create herd immunity. Fauci told me so.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: MykeNukem

The part where they back peddled hard on just ignoring the virus thinking it was just a common cold.

Ok.

I've never said we should ignore it.

The elderly and multi-co-morbidities should beware.

originally posted by: v1rtu0s0
Wait but maybe booster 13 will create herd immunity. Fauci told me so.

Herd immunity through vaccination was always a target that could never be achieved. But they peddle the narrative well enough to cajole many to get vaccinated for the purpose and to protect granny.

These type of virusses are nothing new, they have been here for a long time we as human species have been building herd immunity for a very long time against those type of virussses ,doubt they will ever go away either .

Its just the 1st one we tracked 24/7 world wide for the first time with the technology we have today.
There is a reason why 4 of our normal cold virusses are corona aswell ,in a few years this is just gonna be a new common cold virus ,and then it's just a few more years untill another one pops up.

The way we reacted from the start was way more harmfull to the human population then the virus itself i think.

originally posted by: Dizle81
These type of virusses are nothing new, they have been here for a long time we as human species have been building herd immunity for a very long time against those type of virussses ,doubt they will ever go away either .

Its just the 1st one we tracked 24/7 world wide for the first time with the technology we have today.
There is a reason why 4 of our normal cold virusses are corona aswell ,in a few years this is just gonna be a new common cold virus ,and then it's just a few more years untill another one pops up.

The way we reacted from the start was way more harmfull to the human population then the virus itself i think.

I have created a thread a few months ago about the 'forgotten pandemic' as I named it.

The 1889-1890 Russian 'Flu' Pandemic was most likely caused by human coronavirus OC43 which had a similar infection fatality rate with that of SARS-CoV-2 (i.e very low) and affected mostly the elderly and the clinically vulnerable.

In our days it causes mostly common colds and annoyance. We can't get herd immunity with the strict definition of the phrase however we have very good protection due to natural immunity which prevents us from getting seriously ill.

It seems that those who dealt with SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 didn't even know the history of pandemics well and that coronaviruses are not something new.

originally posted by: inert
a reply to: Asmodeus3

Herd immunity is a thing. It was the cognitive dissonance that the Chinese citizens had watching the world cup with people not wearing masks while they were in a lockdown. They rioted until the government said OK, go for it. Now they have 37 million infections a day, hospitals are at capacity, crematoriums very busy. They are the last country to experience a mass wave of infections because they never vaccinated or allowed natural immunity. At they end of this wave, they will have herd immunity and can go about life as normal. Don't forget where the world was in March/April 2020 and where we are today. Herd immunity is exactly why you're not compelled to wear a mask anymore.

Pull the other one.cognitive dissonance you say?
The irony I say.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: Asmodeus3
I mean, in the end it sort of worked out, but at some points in time they had higher mortality rate than the US, so now it becomes an ethics question. Leave the virus to rip through the population to achieve herd immunity, or do something about it.

"Do something" with experimental, insufficiently tested, never-before-used-on-humans vaccines?

What if the "do something" turns out in the long run to be far worse than the virus?

a reply to: Asmodeus3 It's because of reading about those human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 i didn't get the vaccine in the end,people call me anti vaxx these days i don't care because i know i am not .

This MRNA vaccine and how they were pushed made me hesitant to take one.
A good vaccine that has been tested for years i would take like i did before when i went to countries with tropic temperature/diseases and where i really needed one.

I had to work for almost 1.5 years to 2 yrs. when the pandemic started, work with humans close to eachother and i survived.
It was way before i was allowed to have a vaccine i got sick 3 times in those years. beginning of march 2020 there wern't any tests available ,and then januari and last june were the last times.
2 last times i did get tested an was postive for the virus and getting sick in the june when its warm was new to me.

So i don't deny there was something causing people to get sick,mass vaccination wasn't the key to succes though. i think normal herd immunity is key

originally posted by: inert
a reply to: Asmodeus3

Herd immunity is a thing. It was the cognitive dissonance that the Chinese citizens had watching the world cup with people not wearing masks while they were in a lockdown. They rioted until the government said OK, go for it. Now they have 37 million infections a day, hospitals are at capacity, crematoriums very busy. They are the last country to experience a mass wave of infections because they never vaccinated or allowed natural immunity. At they end of this wave, they will have herd immunity and can go about life as normal. Don't forget where the world was in March/April 2020 and where we are today. Herd immunity is exactly why you're not compelled to wear a mask anymore.

You say that at the end of this round the Chinese will have herd immunity...

Have you not read any of the replies or any of the links??!! It's impressive!!

Let me use some of my links which you can find in the opening page.

Those Who Believe in Herd Immunity Cannot Do the Math.

COVID-19 mutations are evading our immunity and at the same time our immunity is waning. Herd immunity to disease and the eradication of SARS-CoV-2 is no longer possible.

The developer of the AstraZeneca shot says the Delta variant has made herd immunity impossible because vaccinated people can still transmit the virus

Herd immunity now seems impossible. Welcome to the age of Covid reinfection

The virus is now embedded in our world. But there are steps we can take to keep it at bay while we continue to live our lives

You say that herd immunity is why we are not completed to wear a mask anymore...

I think you are in a complete turmoil just as a few other members. There is no herd immunity and I was never compelled to wear a mask. They do nothing. The reason I am alive and well is due to natural immunity.

a reply to: Asmodeus3

The 1889-1890 Russian 'Flu' Pandemic was most likely caused by human coronavirus OC43 which had a similar infection fatality rate with that of SARS-CoV-2 (i.e very low) and affected mostly the elderly and the clinically vulnerable.

Elderly stats:

Between 2015 and 2050, the proportion of the world's population over 60 years will nearly double from 12% to 22%. Overview People worldwide are living longer.

www.who.int...

Comorbidities are often long-term conditions. Some of these conditions are very common. For example, about 22.7 percent of adults in the United States have arthritis. Many adults have at least one chronic condition. The World Health Organization estimates that 87 percent of deaths in high income countries are due to chronic conditions.

www.healthline.com...

The elderly and clinically vulnerable matter.

originally posted by: quintessentone
a reply to: Asmodeus3

The 1889-1890 Russian 'Flu' Pandemic was most likely caused by human coronavirus OC43 which had a similar infection fatality rate with that of SARS-CoV-2 (i.e very low) and affected mostly the elderly and the clinically vulnerable.

Elderly stats:

Between 2015 and 2050, the proportion of the world's population over 60 years will nearly double from 12% to 22%. Overview People worldwide are living longer.

www.who.int...

Comorbidities are often long-term conditions. Some of these conditions are very common. For example, about 22.7 percent of adults in the United States have arthritis. Many adults have at least one chronic condition. The World Health Organization estimates that 87 percent of deaths in high income countries are due to chronic conditions.

www.healthline.com...

The elderly and clinically vulnerable matter.

Ok.

But I don't see how this is related to my post about the Russian 'Flu' Pandemic in 1889-1890 which most likely caused by the human coronavirus OC43.

Unless I have missed something.

The conversation was about herd immunity. Herd immunity against that virus wasn't achieved but the human species didn't get extinct. Very good protection via natural immunity was developed and today the variants of OC43 that are around are only causing colds.

No one should ever forget that several very immoral and corrupt governors, including the current president clamored on about "protecting Granny" right before knowingly sending (forcing) Covid infected patients to nursing homes that they knew had no infected people in them, until their actions changed that and caused the deaths of thousands.

These people are mass murderers and will be punished severely. They pompously believe they are immune from accountability, but they are definitely not.

a reply to: Asmodeus3

Fatality rates factor into the topic of your thread and the elderly and clinical vulnerable have the highest fatality rates as per the sources I posted above, so we as a society can't leave this to herd immunity because they will be hit the hardest. And BTW the 'remaining herd' will always be attacked by new mutations, so with each subsequent mutation maybe the human species will get extinct. We need to fight these diseases with everything we got.

originally posted by: NoCorruptionAllowed
No one should ever forget that several very immoral and corrupt governors, including the current president clamored on about "protecting Granny" right before knowingly sending (forcing) Covid infected patients to nursing homes that they knew had no infected people in them, until their actions changed that and caused the deaths of thousands.

These people are mass murderers and will be punished severely. They pompously believe they are immune from accountability, but they are definitely not.

Angry response but well said for once more!

originally posted by: quintessentone
a reply to: Asmodeus3

Fatality rates factor into the topic of your thread and the elderly and clinical vulnerable have the highest fatality rates as per the sources I posted above, so we as a society can't leave this to herd immunity because they will be hit the hardest. And BTW the 'remaining herd' will always be attacked by new mutations, so with each subsequent mutation maybe the human species will get extinct. We need to fight these diseases with everything we got.

There is no herd immunity by the way. And you don't seem to understand what herd immunity is. If herd immunity can be achieved it can happen via both natural infection and vaccination.

Yes the infection fatality rates are higher for the elderly.

Your last part shows complete misunderstanding of how humans have survived for hundreds of thousands of years after having been exposed to various pathogens.

The reason we didn't get extinct is due to the fact that many of these viruses and bacteria become less pathogenic over time and live in a relative peace with humans. Given also the development of medicine and science we are in a good path.

a reply to: Asmodeus3

My understanding of herd immunity is from reading sources such as these. Where do you get your data?

This is how I understand herd immunity. High fatality rates without treatment.

"Although the lethality of the plague is very high without treatment it remains likely that specific individuals are protected from, or more susceptible to, severe disease through polymorphism in the determinants of natural immunity," the study said.

"In this case, any change in allele frequencies that occurred during a given epidemic crisis could be evident as genetic adaptation and detectable in modern day individuals."

Norman noted in the release that natural selection likely drove these gene changes in future generations.

www.ctvnews.ca...

www.cnbc.com...

Whether or not COVID-19 can be conquered through herd immunity is an open question, according to experts.

www.hsph.harvard.edu...

It's still an open question, according to experts.

originally posted by: quintessentone
a reply to: Asmodeus3

My understanding of herd immunity is from reading sources such as these. Where do you get your data?

This is how I understand herd immunity. High fatality rates without treatment.

"Although the lethality of the plague is very high without treatment it remains likely that specific individuals are protected from, or more susceptible to, severe disease through polymorphism in the determinants of natural immunity," the study said.

"In this case, any change in allele frequencies that occurred during a given epidemic crisis could be evident as genetic adaptation and detectable in modern day individuals."

Norman noted in the release that natural selection likely drove these gene changes in future generations.

www.ctvnews.ca...

www.cnbc.com...

Whether or not COVID-19 can be conquered through herd immunity is an open question, according to experts.

www.hsph.harvard.edu...

It's still an open question, according to experts.

See the opening page why there could be no herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

What you have said has nothing much to do with the definition of herd immunity.

The data I usually provide comes from research papers, either pre-prints or peer-reviewed, scientific articles online, newspapers, etc.

But the definition of herd immunity is basic knowledge I suppose. The concept has been abandoned for the case of SARS-CoV-2.

Here are three sources out of many on the subject. From the opening page

Those Who Believe in Herd Immunity Cannot Do the Math.

COVID-19 mutations are evading our immunity and at the same time our immunity is waning. Herd immunity to disease and the eradication of SARS-CoV-2 is no longer possible.

The developer of the AstraZeneca shot says the Delta variant has made herd immunity impossible because vaccinated people can still transmit the virus

Herd immunity now seems impossible. Welcome to the age of Covid reinfection

The virus is now embedded in our world. But there are steps we can take to keep it at bay while we continue to live our lives

The definition you have tried to give isn't correct the way. But you don't need a source to understand that herd immunity cannot be achieved with vaccines' that cannot prevent transmission and infection and highly Infectious and transmissible variants.

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: quintessentone
a reply to: Asmodeus3

My understanding of herd immunity is from reading sources such as these. Where do you get your data?

This is how I understand herd immunity. High fatality rates without treatment.

"Although the lethality of the plague is very high without treatment it remains likely that specific individuals are protected from, or more susceptible to, severe disease through polymorphism in the determinants of natural immunity," the study said.

"In this case, any change in allele frequencies that occurred during a given epidemic crisis could be evident as genetic adaptation and detectable in modern day individuals."

Norman noted in the release that natural selection likely drove these gene changes in future generations.

www.ctvnews.ca...

www.cnbc.com...

Whether or not COVID-19 can be conquered through herd immunity is an open question, according to experts.

www.hsph.harvard.edu...

It's still an open question, according to experts.

See the opening page why there could be no herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

What you have said has nothing much to do with the definition of herd immunity.

The data I usually provide comes from research papers, either pre-prints or peer-reviewed, scientific articles online, newspapers, etc.

But the definition of herd immunity is basic knowledge I suppose. The concept has been abandoned for the case of SARS-CoV-2

The experts say it's still an open question.