Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: Arbitrageur

Marjorie Taylor Greene is so stubid

Yes, that video is so true that it's like a topsy-turvy bizarro-world in US politics now, when it's the republicans holding back military spending in defense of the threat of the former soviet union for the US and its allies, it used to be the democrats decades ago. She sounded even crazier when she talked about using space lasers against immigrants trying to illegally cross the borders into the US. It was so crazy I thought it was fake news but apparently she's really that crazy. She's talked about trying to get Mike Johnson fired for his $61 billion Ukraine support bill which just passed the house, and I see no reason why it won't pass the senate and get signed into law by President Biden. So yay that Ukraine will finally get military support from the US again I guess, but it's long overdue, it should have passed months ago if not late last year.

The House passes billions in aid for Ukraine and Israel after months of struggle. Next is the Senate

With an overwhelming vote, the $61 billion in aid for Ukraine passed in a matter of minutes, a strong showing as American lawmakers race to deliver a fresh round of U.S. support to the war-torn ally. Many Democrats cheered on the House floor and waved blue-and-yellow flags of Ukraine.

Aid to Israel and the other allies also won approval by healthy margins, as did a measure to clamp down on the popular platform TikTok, with unique coalitions forming to push the separate bills forward. The whole package will go to the Senate, which could pass it as soon as Tuesday. President Joe Biden has promised to sign it immediately.

So the vote was overwhelmingly in favor of supporting Ukraine, which reflects support of ordinary Americans, so you have to wonder why it took so long. Some kind of political game where Mike Johnson didn't understand the situation before, but now he does thanks to getting all those intelligence briefings? Whatever the reason, even after it passes, it will still take time for US aid to actually get to Ukraine so it may still be a rough summer for Ukraine while help is on the way.

Meanwhile Russia has pulled out all the stops on its military production.

Russia also has a new defense against FPV drones for its tanks which Denys Davydov says appears to be effective against drones susceptible to electronic warfare (meaning the plentiful low cost drones). Ukraine has a few higher cost drones that use AI imaging to self guide the drone to the selected target that aren't susceptible to such EW, but not enough of those.

a reply to: Arbitrageur


Space lasers against immigrants ...wow that`s really something....


Thank God the the house passed the aid for Ukraine . It will also generate jobs etc inside USA if i understand.

The radio jamming , one American company has succeed making good radios that makes harder to Russian jamming

Jam-R esistant American Radio Keeps Ukraine’s Long-Range Drones Flying

originally posted by: Kenzo
The radio jamming , one American company has succeed making good radios that makes harder to Russian jamming

Jam-R esistant American Radio Keeps Ukraine’s Long-Range Drones Flying

That article confirms what I'm seeing in other sources, the drone technology of a few months ago is already obsolete in the jamming versus anti-jamming wars, so very rapid changes are needed to keep up with innovations on both sides:

“Resistance to jamming is the number one requirement from our defense customers at present,” says Parikh. “There are changes to the electronic warfare landscape on a monthly basis, and a rapid release cycle is required to beat the jammers.”

So the new anti-jamming technology may only work for months until the opposing side figures out how to jam it, as long as radio frequency communication is required.

The nice thing about the visual target selection using AI to guide the drone to target instead of radio is that it's completely immune to those radio frequency jamming efforts since it can cut the radio completely off after target selection, and still reach the target visually with AI guidance. So you can win the jamming versus anti-jamming fast development cycle game by simply not playing that game at all and using technology immune to jamming:

Ukraine Rolls Out Target-Seeking Terminator Drones

The main protection against FPV drones is radio-frequency jamming, which can shut down the video link between the drone and the operator, prevent the drone from receiving control signals, or confuse its navigation. There is a continuing arms race as developers build more advanced jammers and drone makers upgrade their communications to beat the jamming.

A drone which uses machine vision to track its target automatically and does not rely on operator signals is immune to jamming.

“They neutralize the work of the enemy's EW [Electronic Warfare] in most cases and allow you to hit the enemy even more effectively,” states Sternenko...

The Saker system appears to be relatively large and expensive, but Sternenko says that drones with the new automatic guidance system will cost $1,000 each. That’s a significant increase over other FPV drones which cost around $400, but peanuts compared to guided weapons like the Javelin anti-tank missile which costs around $200,000 a shot.

So at $1000 each, the machine vision drones cost 2.5 times what the radio controlled drones cost at $400 each, but if they are jam-proof, it's worth it, and they are still a bargain compared to a Javelin shot (which also can't be jammed with radio frequencies).

Speaking of drones, the Ukraine drone operators can be quite skilled. This video shows how they hunt down Russian infantry who try to escape the drone, which they might be able to do if the drone operator was less skilled, but these guys are very good at flying the drones, there is no escape. I wonder what is going through the Russian soldier's mind as they realize they are about to die because they are unable to run away from the drone. They live an extra minute or two by playing hide and seek with the drone, but they still lose in the end, see time 3:40-6:20, but don't watch if sensitive to war footage.

Azov Brigade vs. Russian Infantry | Military Mind

Join us as we see real action unfold, courtesy of drone cams capturing every heart-pounding moment. It's like watching a Hollywood blockbuster, but this time, it's the real deal.

20 April Update

The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. The bill must now be passed by the Senate and signed by the president before aid can begin to flow. These requirements and the logistics of transporting US materiel to the frontline in Ukraine will likely mean that new US assistance will not begin to affect the situation on the front line for several weeks.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against several energy infrastructure facilities and a fuel storage facility within Russia on the night of April 19 to 20. Ukrainian media reported that sources in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), and Special Operations Forces (SSO) stated that the SBU, GUR, and SSO jointly launched dozens of drones against Moscow, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Smolensk, Ryazan, and Kaluga oblasts, and struck at least three electrical substations and a fuel storage facility.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances south of Kreminna.

Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Russian forces are using US-made 203mm artillery ammunition that Russia may have received from Iran. (Me: that has got to be some old ammo unless it came via the Taliban)

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Really skilful with how the Ukrainian drone operators handle the drones , they just getting better. At the beginnen of this war they did not yet have those drones if i understand .

Yeeh the radio vs jamming seems to be cat and mouse game . Machine vision drones has big advantage ...maybe they can get the prices down eventually .

This war has really showed new reality, drones ...

Russian salvage ship Kommuna has reportedly been hit by a Neptune Missile while in Sevastopol , Kommuna was / is the oldest ship in Russia's navy serving for the last 110 years also making it the Worlds oldest serving ship.

$61bn about to get pissed against a wall, when will America wake up

a reply to: stu119

So far, The United States has sent Ukraine over $60 billion in funding and equipment through military, economic, and humanitarian aid. Ukraine will have to repay some of these funds after the war, plus interest.

On February 13, 2024, the Senate approved the National Security Act, 2024. If enacted, it will allocate approximately $60 billion for Ukraine-focused initiatives. This funding plan earmarks at least $13.4 billion for replenishing Department of Defense inventories designated for Ukraine, $13.8 billion for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and $1.6 billion in Foreign Military Financing for Ukraine and other impacted nations.
usafacts.org...

From memory we (UK) finished repaying the US for WW2 military aid we received in the 1980s , so no $61bn isn't about to get pissed against a wall.

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: stu119

So far, The United States has sent Ukraine over $60 billion in funding and equipment through military, economic, and humanitarian aid. Ukraine will have to repay some of these funds after the war, plus interest.

On February 13, 2024, the Senate approved the National Security Act, 2024. If enacted, it will allocate approximately $60 billion for Ukraine-focused initiatives. This funding plan earmarks at least $13.4 billion for replenishing Department of Defense inventories designated for Ukraine, $13.8 billion for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and $1.6 billion in Foreign Military Financing for Ukraine and other impacted nations.
usafacts.org...

From memory we (UK) finished repaying the US for WW2 military aid we received in the 1980s , so no $61bn isn't about to get pissed against a wall.

Ukraine will burn through that money within a year and still make no gains in pressing Russia back.

originally posted by: stu119
$61bn about to get pissed against a wall, when will America wake up

Maybe you're the one who slept through America saying they would support Ukraine if they were attacked after giving up all their nukes? Or maybe you weren't even born yet and don't know about such promises?

If Ukraine had just ignored former US president Bill Clinton and kept all their nukes, Russia may not have invaded Ukraine at all because Ukraine had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world after Russia and the US.

What would you have America do, let Russia take over Ukraine and other former members of the soviet union? That will be a much harder enemy to defeat with Ukraine fighting against the US as part of the new soviet union, instead of being an ally of the US fighting against Russia.

originally posted by: stu119
Ukraine will burn through that money within a year and still make no gains in pressing Russia back.

Within a year?

First, most of it isn't "money", most is military aid in the form of weapons.
Second, the US military budget for 2024 is around 900 billion dollars, and about a third of that or 300 billion dollars is budged for Ukraine support, so 60 billion of support is only a fifth of the budgeted amount for Ukraine support for this year!

If Ukraine can defend their territory with the 60.8 billion, they will be better off than if they don't have the 60.8 billion in which case president Zelensky said Ukraine will lose the war. The goal for now is to stop Russia from making gains, and that's about all 61 billion dollars can accomplish. However, if Ukraine gets the 300 billion in military aid that's in the 2024 US budget, that's significantly more than the 120 billion in military spending in Russia this year, so they might actually be able to push Russia back with $300 billion in annual funding. If the US doesn't give that $300 billion to Ukraine, the military will just waste it on something else, so may as well use it to keep the promise Bill Clinton made and support Ukraine in their time of need, like we said we would.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

If Putin is willing to sacrifice Russian lives there is no way for Ukraine to win. Russia used the same tactic in world War 2 send wave after wave of people. And Ukraine doesn't have the population to stop the Russians. They could have better tech they could have 3 to 1 kill ratio and still lose.

There only hope is someone decides Putins war isn't worth the cost and removes him. Or they manage to destroy enough oil refineries that the Russian government collapses.

All and all both scenarios are highly unlikely so all this money will go to just depleting the Russian stockpile which as it turns out is not as beneficial as we thought. We really didn't know how bad the Russian equipment is and that Russia looked good on paper but reality was far different

21 April Update

US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, will be in transit to Ukraine “by the end of the week” if the Senate passes the supplemental appropriations bill on April 23 and US President Joe Biden signs it by April 24.

Ukrainian forces struck and damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) Kommuna submarine support ship – the world’s oldest active-duty naval vessel – in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on April 21.

Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

Russian forces have increased their use of small, lightweight, off-road vehicles along the frontline.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: stu119
$61bn about to get pissed against a wall, when will America wake up

Maybe you're the one who slept through America saying they would support Ukraine if they were attacked after giving up all their nukes? Or maybe you weren't even born yet and don't know about such promises?

If Ukraine had just ignored former US president Bill Clinton and kept all their nukes, Russia may not have invaded Ukraine at all because Ukraine had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world after Russia and the US.

What would you have America do, let Russia take over Ukraine and other former members of the soviet union? That will be a much harder enemy to defeat with Ukraine fighting against the US as part of the new soviet union, instead of being an ally of the US fighting against Russia.

originally posted by: stu119
Ukraine will burn through that money within a year and still make no gains in pressing Russia back.

Within a year?

First, most of it isn't "money", most is military aid in the form of weapons.
Second, the US military budget for 2024 is around 900 billion dollars, and about a third of that or 300 billion dollars is budged for Ukraine support, so 60 billion of support is only a fifth of the budgeted amount for Ukraine support for this year!

If Ukraine can defend their territory with the 60.8 billion, they will be better off than if they don't have the 60.8 billion in which case president Zelensky said Ukraine will lose the war. The goal for now is to stop Russia from making gains, and that's about all 61 billion dollars can accomplish. However, if Ukraine gets the 300 billion in military aid that's in the 2024 US budget, that's significantly more than the 120 billion in military spending in Russia this year, so they might actually be able to push Russia back with $300 billion in annual funding. If the US doesn't give that $300 billion to Ukraine, the military will just waste it on something else, so may as well use it to keep the promise Bill Clinton made and support Ukraine in their time of need, like we said we would.

I know the history, your next presidents about to turn the money hose off.

22 April Update

Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov and the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported that Russian forces struck a TV tower in Kharkiv City possibly with a Kh-59 cruise missile on the afternoon of April 22 and that the strike disrupted TV signals in the area.

Russian forces have committed roughly a reinforced division’s worth of combat power (comprised mainly of four Central Military District [CMD] brigades) to the Berdychi-Novokalynove line northwest of Avdiivka. . . . Russian offensive operations in these three areas north and northwest of Avdiivka have succeeded in creating three small salients along a frontline that is about seven kilometers long, but each of these three salients is currently too narrow in isolation to serve as meaningful launch points for further ground offensives that would accomplish a broad encirclement of the general area west of Avdiivka.

Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

More at URL above.

Cheers

can someone tell me who is doing the accounting for all the aid the US is sending? i mean surely if they have sent X already they would expect Y to have happened?

Storm Shadows Head to Ukraine as Ally Commits 1,600 Missiles in New Aid

The U.K. will supply Ukraine with additional long-range Storm Shadow missiles as Western countries pledge fresh military aid to Kyiv ahead of an anticipated Russian summer offensive.

The British government said on Tuesday it would commit its largest-ever tranche of military aid to Ukraine, worth £500 million ($622 million). The package includes more than 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, as well as further deliveries of Storm Shadow air-launched precision-guided missiles, vessels and vehicles, the British defense ministry said.

Source

It seems that once the US House of Representative passed the aid bill, the British government made the decision to send more weapons to Ukraine. Now, if the Senate can just get on board, we might see a change.

a reply to: Bishop2199

Also, the UK is increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030. Doing our bit for NATO.

originally posted by: Bishop2199
It seems that once the US House of Representative passed the aid bill, the British government made the decision to send more weapons to Ukraine. Now, if the Senate can just get on board, we might see a change.

The senate approved the Ukraine aid bill with overwhelming majority as did the house, and President Biden already said he would sign it. If Biden signs it later today as expected, arms are ready to start shipping to Ukraine later this week.

originally posted by: stu119
can someone tell me who is doing the accounting for all the aid the US is sending?

Everybody knows Ukraine and all the former states of the Soviet Union have corruption problems, so there are multiple audits to ensure the arms shipped to Ukraine are not diverted in corruption schemes:

Def ense Officials: U.S. Ensures Accountability of Systems Supplied to Ukraine

"Even as we focus on getting Ukraine what it needs, we've always prioritized accountability, and Ukraine has, too. We have adapted our accountability practices for the combat environment to address the risk of illicit diversion, using mechanisms that go above and beyond our standard practices," Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin H. Kahl today told the House Armed Services Committee.

Kahl said U.S. officials have had talks with their Ukrainian counterparts for years regarding the issue of corruption and the importance of accountability and transparency.

i mean surely if they have sent X already they would expect Y to have happened?

I'm filing that under stu119 making assumptions that have no connection to reality and making stuff up, and then egregiously modifying his fictitious expectation with the word "surely".

We can see what has actually happened. Putin expected to take Ukraine in 10 days, but even optimistic analysts talking about the invasion right before it happened in February 2022 didn't think Ukraine would last more than a few months given the overwhelming superiority of Russian forces, at least on paper. So, Ukraine has exceeded all expectations and even pushed Russia back in Kharkiv and Kherson in 2022, with support from its allies. But that support was trickling in too slowly and Ukraine didn't keep advancing in 2022, and let Russia build strong defense lines in the winter which stalled the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023, but they pretty much held their positions in 2023 with aid from their allies, other than the loss of Bakhmut.

Then in 2024 we see what happened when Ukraine stopped getting support from the US, they have been slowly losing ground. The expectation is that once the 61 billion of aid is flowing in fully, Ukraine should be able to at least slow down the Russian advances for the rest of this year if not stop them completely. But the problem is they can't get exactly what they really need with that 61 billion dollars, which is a huge supply of artillery shells, because the US just doesn't have the capacity to produce the amount of artillery shells that Ukraine needs. The US had planned for fighting air superiority wars, which don't require so many artillery shells, hence the low production capacity.

As part of the passage of the $61 billion Ukraine aid bill, congress has asked president Biden to give them his plan for supporting Ukraine going forward. But there is nothing as specific as for these munitions we expect these results, because war is unpredictable, though analysts widely expect the 61 billion to help slow Russian advances.

Here's one analyst talking about that:

How Putin's 'reckless' military strategy will be thwarted by US-Ukraine aid package | Michael Clarke

originally posted by: stu119
I know the history, your next presidents about to turn the money hose off.

Nobody knows who the next president will be; current indications are it will be a close race, but it's still early in the election cycle.

Even if Trump gets elected, it's literally illegal for him to refuse to send the aid that congress has approved. However, Trump does not have a reputation as a law abiding citizen or president, so he has broken such laws in the past, but he may think twice about doing it again because there can be consequences like impeachment.

Trump administration broke law in withholding Ukraine aid, watchdog says as Senate prepares for impeachment trial

The Trump administration broke the law by witholding congressionally approved military aid to Ukraine over the summer "for a policy reason," a top government watchdog said.

The report by the Government Accountability Office came a day after the House of Representatives sent articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump to the Senate for conduct related to the withholding of that aid to Ukraine...

"Faithful execution of the law does not permit the President to substitute his own policy priorities for those that Congress has enacted into law," the report said.

The agency noted that the Constitution "specifically vests Congress with the power of the purse."

And the report said that Trump, like all other presidents, "is not vested with the power to ignore or amend any such duly enacted law."

a reply to: Arbitrageur

It seems many are still under the assumption that The West sends pallets of cash and arms to Ukraine without any accountability or auditing.

Personally I'd want to make sure that every bullet and every last penny or dime was accounted for.

I'm just pleased the aid has been agreed in time for Ukraine to defend against the expected Russian push this Spring/Summer.
I can see Putin facing serious questions at home if no significant advances are made and the relative stalemate drags on into another winter, especially considering the ongoing attacks within Russia itself.

23 April Update

United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around $662 million) on April 23.

Moldovan authorities confiscated over one million dollars from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians at the Chisinau airport on the night of April 22 to 23, and the opposition politicians likely intended to use to bribe protestors and voters.

Bloomberg reported on April 22 that as of mid-April 2024 Russia processed 5.22 million barrels of crude oil per day, 10,000 fewer barrels than the average in early April. Russia has reportedly processed 1.23 million barrels of crude oil per day since January at refineries that Ukrainian forces previously struck with drones, a 280,000-barrel-per-day decrease from before Ukrainian forces started targeting Russian oil refineries in late January 2024.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Russian forces recently advanced near Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers