Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Kenzo
Chuck Pfarrer is of course correct about the high losses Russia is sustaining. But I think he's overly optimistic about ammo parity.
He says Russia can't continue indefinitely with such losses, but doesn't really explain why they can't keep it up.
They are conscripting more soldiers right now for their "meat wave" attacks, and those conscripts won't be adequately trained so they too will have high losses. But there are more where those came from. The main downside may be a worker shortage with not enough people to both fight the war and run the arms factories, which can cause even more inflation, which Russia is already trying to contain with their extremely high interest rates.

It seems to me like Russia can keep conscripting more soldiers for a long time; I don't see anybody stopping Putin. As someone said, Putin had a great tolerance to endure the pain of other people in Russia. If the mothers of the fallen soldiers complain, he will just stage another fake meeting with actresses pretending to be mothers of the fallen soldiers, explaining why their son's loss was important to the fatherland, to prevent NATO from attacking Russia or other made up BS.

Also, Pfarrer implies if the US resumes aid, there will then be some kind of ammo parity, but I don't think there will be ammo parity even in 2025, even if the US fully funds Ukraine support, because neither the US nor Europe have sufficient artillery shell capacity to match what Russia and its allies can produce. Even after expanding production capacity, I think it's still going to be a fraction of what Russia and its allies have. I want Ukraine to win, but they are going to have to do it with drones or something instead of artillery shells, because Russia will continue to have way more artillery shells for the foreseeable future.

Russia produces three times as many artillery shells as US and Europe for Ukraine

Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, a key advantage ahead of what is expected to be another Russian offensive in Ukraine later this year.

Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.

The US military set a goal to produce 100,000 rounds of artillery a month by the end of 2025 — less than half of the Russian monthly output — and even that number is now out of reach with $60 billion in Ukraine funding stalled in Congress, a senior Army official told reporters last week.

“What we are in now is a production war,” a senior NATO official told CNN. “The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to conduct this war.”

Officials say Russia is currently firing around 10,000 shells a day, compared to just 2,000 a day from the Ukrainian side. The ratio is worse in some places along the 600-mile front, according to a European intelligence official.

The drone situation may be more promising, since Ukraine plans to make a million drones a year and also the EU plans to supply another million drones per year. However, Russia is also mass-producing huge quantities of drones, but I don't think they have the drone advantage yet, that they have with artillery shells.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

During WW II the Allies, principally the US provided Soviet Union with billions in aid Things like Studebaker trucks, P 39/63
fighter planes for ground attack and millions in tons of food in form of canned Spam

Putin is receiving "aid" in form of defective artillery rounds from North Korea, slow drones from Iran At some point Russia
will begin running out of resources, both human and material

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yeeh , Russia does produce a lot more shells that West it seems , that is real problem no doubt . Artillery is still the the Goddes of war .

Not sure did i read yesterday that Ukraine will have 2 million drones 2024 .

How are Russian artillery barrels ? how long until they cant work or replace them ?

Putin never cared how many Russians die in he`s paranoid war .

6 April Update

The Kremlin explicitly threatened its long-term ally Armenia on April 5 over Armenian outreach to the West following Russia’s failure to prevent Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov announced on April 5 that 3,000 former Wagner Group personnel will join the Akhmat Spetsnaz unit following successful negotiations between Akhmat and Wagner commanders. . . . Kadyrov’s mention of the Russian MoD indicates that these Wagner elements will be subordinated under the Russian MoD’s authority rather than Rosgvardia.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

45 minute interview with former member of the Russian State Duma and Putin critic Ilya Ponomarev , the exiled politician turned member of the Russian Liberation Forces gives an insight into the operations of the RLF , the Russian partisans working within Russia and the plans for Russia post Putin.

originally posted by: Kenzo
How are Russian artillery barrels ? how long until they cant work or replace them ?

Good question. According to one guess, artillery barrels may become a critical problem for Russia in 2026, along with some other arms they are cannibalizing or refurbishing from long-term storage. But they could be building more factories to produce more barrels, which could come online by then, we aren't sure.

Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand.

According to open-source analyst Richard Vereker, the Kremlin has been pulling out of long-term storage thousands of Cold War-vintage towed howitzers. But it’s not necessarily sending those old—but lightly-used—guns to the front in order to make good the roughly 1,100 artillery pieces Russian forces have lost since February 2022.

No, it seems technicians instead are yanking the barrels off the old towed guns and using them as a replacements for worn-out barrels on the most important self-propelled howitzers...

The recovered barrels, plus any new barrels Russian industry has produced, were enough to keep 2,000 howitzers shooting for two years. Assuming most of the 7,500 old towed howitzers remaining in storage aren’t already totally worn out, these guns—stripped for parts—could keep the front-line batteries in action for another two years.

If so, that points to 2026 as the crisis year in Russian weapons-supply. As it happens, that’s also the year the Russians could run out of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks.

The article also says Russia could be trying to obtain more barrels from N Korea, but who knows if N Korea can supply them or if their barrels have quality problems like their artillery shells do.

originally posted by: firerescue
Putin is receiving "aid" in form of defective artillery rounds from North Korea, slow drones from Iran At some point Russia
will begin running out of resources, both human and material

The soviet union undoubtedly needed the aid like food and trucks in WWII, since their own food production was devastated. But the only thing Ukraine seems to be denting in Russia's economy in this war is their oil refinery operations. If they keep doing that Russia may have to start rationing fuel, but I don't see what is stopping Russia from domestic production otherwise. If they can make 3 million shells a year in Russia, they don't even really need shells from N Korea to outpace the US and Europe shell production combined.

Maybe money will get tight for Russia at some point, but I'm not holding my breath for that to stop them, since they can always print more and make inflation even worse than it already is.

a reply to: Arbitrageur


That would be 2 long years still if 2026 ....for both sides.

I blame the West , it`s clear that Ukraine have not received enough shells and other stuff . It`s making the war much longer ,even years longer .

a reply to: Kenzo

Ukraine Now has Another Enemy to Deal with...


" Belarus President: 'We're Preparing for War' "

"The suspension of Belarus' participation in the CFE Treaty affects the balance of power and security in the entire Euro-Atlantic region and sends a signal to Western countries that Minsk intends to become an active military player in the region," Belarusian military analyst Alexander Alesin told The Associated Press."




www.newsmax.com...

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
a reply to: Kenzo

Ukraine Now has Another Enemy to Deal with...

Ukraine has had troops stationed at the border with Belarus and has even built some defense lines there, but I don't see another enemy to deal with any more than that, and I think that's primarily for defense against Russian troops re-entering that way like they did in 2022. I think you jumped the gun with that statement.

This article also talks about Belarus preparing for war but gives a totally different take on how Belarus doesn't want war, by giving some context to Lukashenko's comments, instead of cherry-picking comments to make him sound aggressive.

Belarusian leader Lukashenko: We prepare for war and I speak frankly about it

Self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has visited the border city of Grodno and stated that Belarus is indeed preparing for war. However, it does not want to engage in it.

Source: Lukashenko's website

Quote: "Do not believe anyone who says we want to fight. We are preparing for war. I speak frankly about it. 'If you want peace, prepare for war', that's not my words. But it is very well said."..

Lukashenko added that Belarus supposedly does not threaten anyone, "We don't need to threaten anyone. We don't want someone else's land. God willing, we’ll successfully cultivate our own."..

He claimed that Belarus also digs land near the border, but not for trenches, but for the construction of a medical facility.

Quote: "After all, we are now digging the land near the border, just like they are. Only our goals are completely different. They dig trenches, make fortifications against tanks, and other things, invest into assault weapons. And here, we allocate two-thirds of the regional budget to the social sphere. We want to build a peaceful future. We are only determined to develop."

When you take all those comments by Lukashenko in context, it seems more of peaceful stance than an aggressive stance. But Ukraine still needs to guard the border with Belarus, because Russia could have another go at Kyiv from Belarus, though it too would be unsuccessful, like the first attempt in 2022.

7 April Update

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov reported that Ukraine anticipates Russian offensive operations to intensify in late spring and early summer.

Russian forces reportedly continue to systematically use prohibited chemical weapons in Ukraine and are attacking Ukrainian positions with chemical substances almost daily throughout the frontline.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on April 7.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Zelensky says, "If (the US) congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war", translation by CNN of Zelensky's comments, followed by some analysis of what this really means.

Ukrainian president has stark new warning as war rages on

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warns that Ukraine will lose the war with Russia without US assistance. Franz-Stefan Gady of the International Institute for Strategic Studies explains why US military aid is crucial to Ukraine’s war effort.

One interesting thing they note:

"The head of the US House intelligence committe has said that Russian propaganda has absolutely spread through Congress, particularly among some of his Republican colleages".

I can understand some random ATSers falling for Russian propaganda, but I was hoping those in the US congress wouldn't fall for it...apparently some have.

Putin seeks emergency petrol as Russia runs on fumes

Russia has reportedly asked Kazakhstan to supply it with petrol as Ukrainian attacks on its refineries force it to import gasoline.

Kazakhstan has been asked to set up a reserve of 100,000 tonnes of gasoline, equivalent to 845,000 barrels, to supply Russia should shortages arise, Reuters reported.

It is unclear if a deal has been reached. The Kremlin has also been seeking supplies from Belarus.

Russia is normally an exporter of gasoline but Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly hit its refining capabilities, forcing it to rely on imports to meet demand.

Source

Putin is Fuming or wishes he were. Russia is feeling the fuel crunch as the effects of Ukraine's bombing of the refineries is having an affect.

It will be interesting to see how this develops. After all, one of the hindrances that Germany faced in WWII was lack of fuel.

8 April Update

Three unnamed industry sources told Reuters in an article published on April 8 that Russia asked Kazakhstan to establish an “emergency reserve” of 100,000 metric tons of gasoline that Kazakhstan could supply to Russia in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone strikes and resulting refinery outages.

The GUR published footage on April 8 allegedly of an explosive detonating in the control room of the Russian Baltic Fleet’s Serpukhov Project 21631 Buyan-M class corvette on April 7. The GUR reported that the resulting fire destroyed the Serpukhov’s automation and communications systems and that repairs will take a long time to complete.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

A Ukrainian drone attack has targeted the 711th aviation repair plant in the town of Borisoglebsk in Russia's Voronezh region.

9 April Update

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on April 9 that it transferred roughly a brigade’s worth of small arms and ammunition seized from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to Ukraine on April 4.

GUR Spokesperson Andriy Yusov told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) that two unspecified drones struck the aviation center in Borisoglebsk, which reportedly trains Russian frontline bomber and attack aviation flight crews, and that preliminary information suggests that the strike damaged unspecified production facilities at the airbase.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, west of Avdiivka, and south and southwest of Donetsk City on April 9.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Bishop2199
Putin seeks emergency petrol as Russia runs on fumes

Russia has reportedly asked Kazakhstan to supply it with petrol as Ukrainian attacks on its refineries force it to import gasoline.

Kazakhstan has been asked to set up a reserve of 100,000 tonnes of gasoline, equivalent to 845,000 barrels, to supply Russia should shortages arise, Reuters reported.

It is unclear if a deal has been reached. The Kremlin has also been seeking supplies from Belarus.

Russia is normally an exporter of gasoline but Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly hit its refining capabilities, forcing it to rely on imports to meet demand.

Source

Putin is Fuming or wishes he were. Russia is feeling the fuel crunch as the effects of Ukraine's bombing of the refineries is having an affect.

It will be interesting to see how this develops. After all, one of the hindrances that Germany faced in WWII was lack of fuel.

Pervomaiske fell yesterday.

With considerable advancement past Berdychi and Semenivka falling.

To the south of it, Novomykhailivka is falling as well.

Which will secure another considerable hold in the south establishing the next spring board to launch further offensives going deep into more sparsely defensive lines outside of Donetsk.

As you mentioned it’ll be interesting how this unfolds going forward.

originally posted by: Imhere
Pervomaiske fell yesterday.

Before the war, it was a village of about 2000 people.
It only took the Russian military a year and a half to take it from their much smaller adversary. I think the Ukrainians fought bravely to hang on to it that long.

But when Zelensky said without US support, Ukraine would lose the war, this is how they lose it, one village at a time.
Even so, at the speed Russia is advancing, Putin won't live long enough to see his army take Kyiv. It's taking a really long time just for Putin to try to take the rest of the oblasts he's already illegally annexed to Russia, even though he only partially occupied them.

Relating to Ukraines attacks to Russian oil refineries , in WW2 similar tactic was succes .


Remembering Ploesti

Ukraine war: The Ukrainian draft-dodgers who don’t want to go to war
Sky’s John Sparks spoke to a draft-dodger who is preparing to flee Ukraine through the news.sky.com...

10 April Update

The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada National Security and Defense Committee adopted the second reading of the draft mobilization law on April 9 and submitted it to the wider Verkhovna Rada for consideration

Russian forces recently captured Ivanivske, a settlement east of Chasiv Yar, and advanced near Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers