Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

Ukraine is developing Drone with flight range up to 3300 km at an altitude of up to 12 km.





3000km is enough to reach Russian oil fields in the other side of Ural mountains .

2 April Update

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on April 2 that lowers the Ukrainian military’s mobilization age from 27 to 25 years of age.

Ukraine conducted long-range unidentified unmanned aerial systems (UAS) strikes against Russian military production and oil refinery infrastructure in the Republic of Tatarstan, over 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on April 2.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Kenzo

Ukraine is developing Drone with flight range up to 3300 km at an altitude of up to 12 km.

3000km is enough to reach Russian oil fields in the other side of Ural mountains .

This video is over a year old.

And well known. I don’t think the development and advancements have stopped here. And will only continue. However that goes both ways obviously with Russian advancements too.

Other countries are watching closely as well.

Difference is both Ukraine (help from U.S. NATO) and Russia are basically the most militarily modern day battle experienced countries on the planet these past years.

The real deal on-field battle hardened experiences between these 2 countries is what separates them from others. As they are the ones in the trenches taking note and constantly developing/modifying.

One thing is having the blueprints, and another is making them, operating them and adapting to actual on-field experiences with them etc.

As with many other situations in the world, experience often triumphs over some “certificate”/degrees in many cases.

For example, you can be a well versed/certified mechanic, but if you get dropped in a shop that builds complex/customized machinery with their experienced mechanics etc one will get humbled quickly. Might not be the best comparison here this morning but the point stands.

As much as U.S./NATO is watching Ukraine’s experiences, China/other countries are probably watching Russia’s closely as well.

Fair take from an American POV, is this can potentially be a nuisance for Russia, but won’t matter as much on Russia doing advancements/implementing them on another country for example.

Basically, these research and developments have been going on for a while now between the 2. And will continue.

Russia is known to take a hit early on, and then adapting from it and ultimately start beating the real drums on the opponent afterwards.

Once if/when Zelensky capitulates, it won’t have much of a platform to operate these attacks on a meaningful scale. It would later either come from NATO countries, or another country.

Which in that scenario would be a major conflict.

a reply to: Imhere

I know that the drone was allready under development in 2020 or so....so what , i dont think they stopped , i think they realized in last 2 years that drones are good in the war.

The big Geographical size of Russia makes it impossible to cover all places with air defence , not to mention air defence that would work good way.

Russia is one big gas station ......and negligent use of matchsticks may cause fires .

a reply to: Imhere

Which in that scenario would be a major conflict.

If avoiding a major conflict is your primary concern I guess we can hope Putin calls an immediate ceasefire and withdraws his troops to the internationally recognised border before entering into genuinely open and well intentioned peace negotiations without preconditions that are in reality surrender and capitulation for Ukraine.

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: Imhere

I know that the drone was allready under development in 2020 or so....so what , i dont think they stopped , i think they realized in last 2 years that drones are good in the war.

The big Geographical size of Russia makes it impossible to cover all places with air defence , not to mention air defence that would work good way.

Russia is one big gas station ......and negligent use of matchsticks may cause fires .

Disagree.

To anyones logic, the more these drone “attacks” happen, the more counter measures and defenses Russia will set up.

Especially around high valued potential targets/infrastructures going forward.

Countries learn. Adapt and fortify.

Now, the real concern here is what will stop Russia doing these “drones” attacks on a further/more intense scale on Ukraines capital/infrastructures etc coming up? As we’ve been seeing on the media lately more strikes going on.

Seeing Russia can eyeball Ukraine on a smaller footnote more easily, then Ukraine can on the big geographical size of Russia, as you stated.

Have you seen the recent railway Russia made in the south? Connecting the land bridge to Crimea?

Not far in the direction where Ukraine’s failed last summer offensive was heading?

It’s a massive railway. 450-mile railway line.

Ukraine has more to do deal with coming up here as time goes on with these constructions and obstacles in its own backyard.

Then these “terror PR stunts” having much impact on Russia going forward.

According to some arm chair generals on social media etc, Russian facilities/economy took a hit long ago where it ran out of missiles etc.

Yet Russia has increased production/advancements on them with time.

a reply to: Imhere

It’s a massive railway. 450-mile railway line

Plenty of scope there for ongoing sabotage.

Which i guarantee will happen.

a reply to: alldaylong


Ukraine will maybe wait untill the proper train goes in that trail and then hit it .

a reply to: Kenzo

Apparently Zelensky has just bought a place off of King Charles for the price of twenty million pounds. As the second biggest city in Ukraine falls , that being Kharkov , it looks like things are taking another turn , as it might be signallling a government in exile. Which might mean a more open NATO involvement. Israel has cancelled all leave for reservists as it expects retaliation for it's embassy bombing. It is a toss up for which theatre gets going first. Poland has just done a poll which looks like if they invite the Poles to a war not many will be going. This from Canadian Prepper. First the price of gold is very indicative of rising tension.

3 April Update

Ukrainian officials stated on March 20 that Ukrainian forces repelled a large Russian assault in the Lyman direction and published geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces damaging or destroying several Russian armored vehicles east of Terny (west of Kreminna). Ukrainian forces later defeated a battalion-sized Russian mechanized assault near Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) on March 30 to which Russian forces reportedly committed at least 36 tanks and 12 BMP infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).

Republic of Tatarstan Head Rustam Minnikhanov warned that Russian companies and local authorities must defend themselves against Ukrainian drone strikes and not rely on Russian air defenses following the April 2 Ukrainian strikes on Russian military production and oil refinery infrastructure in Tatarstan. (Me: Quite the vote of confidence in Putin's military ...)

Ukraine and Finland signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on April 3.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Imhere
Now, the real concern here is what will stop Russia doing these “drones” attacks on a further/more intense scale on Ukraines capital/infrastructures etc coming up? As we’ve been seeing on the media lately more strikes going on.

Nothing is going to stop either side from launching drones until perhaps Putin's regime falls out of power. But attacking the factory where the drones are made might slow them down temporarily at least. Ukraine claims to be shooting most of the Shahed drones down.

Have you seen the recent railway Russia made in the south? Connecting the land bridge to Crimea?

Not far in the direction where Ukraine’s failed last summer offensive was heading?

It’s a massive railway. 450-mile railway line.

It is intended to make the Kerch bridge less critical as the only way of getting supplies into Crimea, since it will provide an alternate route to Crimea eventually, but it won't be finished until 2025. So there are some predictions that 2024 is the last year that attacking the Kerch bridge will be useful in actually cutting off supplies to Crimea, and another attack on the Kerch bridge may come this summer, as discussed in the following video:

High-ranking Ukrainian officers warn of great risk of frontlines collapsing...............................

"A number of Ukrainian military officers have offered a grim assessment of the situation on the ground as Russia takes the upper hand.

The high-ranking officers, who served under ousted commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny, told POLITICO there is a great risk of the frontlines collapsing wherever Russia chooses to focus its offensive.

They warned Russia is currently gathering resources and should be ready to launch a "big attack" around August or potentially sooner.

It will likely be able to "penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts", they said"


Western weapons just not enough to stop the Russian advance..........................

"Speaking about Western weaponry, one officer said: "Zaluzhny used to call it 'the War of One Chance'.

"By that, he meant weapons systems become redundant very quickly because they're quickly countered by the Russians. For example, we used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles [supplied by Britain and France] successfully - but just for a short time. The Russians are always studying. They don't give us a second chance. And they're successful in this."

news.sky.com...

a reply to: ufoorbhunter
First of all, if it's a politico article, why not post the politico link? Here it is:

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing

I searched the link you posted for the quote you posted and it was nowhere to be found at that link, so when you post a link that doesn't contain what you're quoting, it doesn't reflect well on you.

As for the content of the Politico article, it seems like Zelensky is trying to get US congress to take some action, since they have been sitting on that 60+ billion dollar aid package without even putting it to a vote all year so far. I mean, if everything was fine and dandy, why would Ukraine need so many billions in aid?

But Europe seems to be stepping up a bit in the absence of US support. They are going to get Ukraine more artillery shells, from outside the EU, and while the Politico article doesn't name the source, I heard some were being sourced from India.

Europe, for its part, is trying to help Ukraine make up for its colossal disadvantage in artillery shells. And in this regard, a proposed Czech-led bulk artillery ammunition purchase could bring Ukraine’s total from both within and outside the EU to around 1.5 million rounds at a cost of $3.3 billion — but that’s still short of what it needs.

Before, Macron kept trying to negotiate with Putin, and I think he's finally realized Putin can't be negotiated with and France is really stepping up support. Ukraine is supposed to produce a million drones domestically this year, and the EU is going to supply another million, so that's a lot of drones, and Ukraine is pretty good at utilizing them. So all I see so far this year is Russia making relatively small gains. Could they get bigger without US support? Maybe so, that's what Zelensky is saying, but Ukraine seems to be doing the best they can with the support they are getting. The US should get its act together and at least vote on that aid bill though.

4 April Update

Russian forces conducted a roughly reinforced company-sized mechanized assault towards Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) on April 4 and advanced up to the eastern outskirts of the settlement.

Russian forces also recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

The link I found Arbi was from the Guardian a few days ago, thing is when you link the page the following day the ball point headlines actually under the headline disappears and the site moves on to the current ball point links of the day. I only link to sites I've heard of, Politico will never be used, the Guardian well no particular fan club member it's just the last 'free' (click remind me in May) traditional British broadsheet still available to view

Interesting your views on the US funding what is effectively a proxy war in defence of the western backed coup of a decade ago. Why should we in the West accept that our governments meddle in the affairs of others who share non of our values. People we share no religious, cultural, geographic, economic, historical ties with. Let these Slav's fight their inter state mafia wars to themselves, they'll sort something out without our meddling and interference. It's time to look after our own, spend our billions of war production on hospitals, roads, bridges infrastructure, housing, etc. Lets these foreigners sort things out for themselves. No more wasting our taxes, no more blowback from failed military campaigns abroad. No more dead soldiers and thousands of crippled veterans. It's the war between Slav's. Let the Slav's sort thing out for themselves and let's look after our own

New Ukrainian drones will be able to attack military bases in the Murmansk region, including the Olenya airfield with strategic bombers", - BILD

a reply to: Kenzo

Interesting that range reaches Tehran as well. Time for the Mullahs to wake up.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Yes look`s like Tehran is in range....i wonder where in Iran are the factorys that make drones etc..

Israels missile reach there too . And Israel has F-35 too .

Russian jet drop thermobaric glide bombs on Ukrainian forces


Russian warplanes have conducted a strike on Ukrainian positions in the southern sector of the front using high-precision glide bombs, according to a new video released by the Defense Ministry in Moscow.

I thought those were illegal .

originally posted by: Ravenwatcher
Russian jet drop thermobaric glide bombs on Ukrainian forces


Russian warplanes have conducted a strike on Ukrainian positions in the southern sector of the front using high-precision glide bombs, according to a new video released by the Defense Ministry in Moscow.

I thought those were illegal .

Sometimes things you hear on the news are "illegal" are actually just restricted. White phosphorous, for example, isn't completely outlawed, you're just restricted in how you can use it.

Not sure about the thermobaric weapons, but I don't think they're blanket illegal either.