Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: dragonridr

STRATEGYPAGE.COM has a post today going into detail concerning artillery barrel life and the consequences of firing a piece with an expired barrel - decreased range and accuracy to burst barrels

www.strategypage.com...

Russian artillery barrel life was only 2/3 that of Western pieces Much of their artillery has already exceeded its "SELL BY DATE"

a reply to: firerescue
Thanks for posting that informative article.
However I think it's a bit optimistic to think that Russia won't be able to continue the war after 2024 due to those issues. Lots of us wish that was true, but Russia could get their sleeve manufacturing ramped up sooner than that article expects.

As for accuracy, I sort of got the impression that Russia was already firing 10 artillery shells do destroy a target, due to lack of accuracy, that Ukraine can do with one or two shells.

It would be interesting to know how many artillery pieces are actually blowing up in Ukraine and Russia, due to excessive wear of the barrel. But I don't think either would want to make that data public, at least not while the war is still going on.

Russia Pledges Two New Ground Armies in Ominous Warning to West

Russia will create two new armies before the end of the year, the country's defense minister Sergei Shoigu has announced, as fears grow that Moscow is planning for an eventual war with NATO.

On Wednesday Shoigu announced plans to boost Russia's conventional military capabilities, saying that it had formed an army corps and a motorized division.

In addition, he said that the Russian military plans to form two combined arms armies (CAA) and 14 divisions, as well as 16 brigades, by the end of 2024.

Source

So, does Russia have enough manpower left to actually accomplish this or are they just shuffling people around from one unit to another? The ISW, according to the article, thinks that Russia does not have "the manpower, infrastructure, and training capacity to create several entirely new divisions to army-level formations."

More mercenaries or just old guys that should be retired by now?

a reply to: Bishop2199
We know Putin is concerned about a lack of manpower to create a big enough army to re-create the "glory days" of the soviet union, by re-taking the formerly soviet countries. The most obvious sign is his telling Russians to have more babies, so that shows a long term horizon where he sees the need for more soldiers still happening 18 years from now when those babies are old enough to be conscripted.

Putin urges Russian women to have ‘eight or more’ children amid soaring deaths in his Ukraine war

Vladimir Putin has urged Russian women to have eight or more children and make large families “the norm” amid soaring numbers of casualties in his war against Ukraine.

Russia’s birth rate has been steadily falling since the 90’s and the country has suffered more than 300,000 casualties since the start of the Ukraine conflict, according to data maintained by Kyiv.

Putin needs more Russian men to send to their deaths using his army's "meat wave" tactics, which results in high losses, but Putin doesn't care, especially if he can just mobilize more soldiers, and 8 kids per family would eventually provide a big supply of "meat wave fodder".

But I don't know why parents would want to bring 8 more lives into those bad living conditions most Russians face outside the big cities, even worse now with the war-related problems like inflation, and the price of eggs and gasoline has been especially problematic recently. It's hard enough for many Russians to feed 2 kids, I don't know how they would feed 8, except for the wealhier Russians.

Ukraine's biggest dam and power plants hit in huge Russian attack with 'nearly 90 missiles and 60 drones'

Ukraine's state hydropower company said a Russian strike hit Ukraine's largest dam, the DniproHES in Zaporizhzhia, but that there was no risk of a breach, while power infrastructure in other regions was also hit, officials said.

"There is currently a fire at the station. Emergency services and energy workers are working on the spot, dealing with the consequences of numerous airstrikes," said Ukrhydroenerho, which runs Ukraine's network of dams.

Ukraine’s energy grid was receiving urgent assistance from Poland, Romania and Slovakia after the air strikes that damaged energy facilities and left more than one million people without power

Ukraine’s nuclear power company said the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which requires constant external power to prevent a disaster, was on the verge of a blackout after Russia struck the nearby hydro-electric dam.

Source

Putin is tired of the drone attacks. He is now trying to hit back at the electricity infrastructure of Ukraine.

Hopefully this will not affect the safe operation of the nuclear power plant.

NATO neighbors have already stepped in to assist with electrical power.

Russia's recruited so many inmates to fight in Ukraine that it's shuttering some of its prisons

According to Kommersant, several prisons, including a men's correctional colony for repeat offenders in the village of Gromadsk and a men's penal colony for first-time offenders in the village of Areiskoye, will be shuttered.

The decision, Denisov said, would help "optimize and save money."

Russia's military has been recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine. The military's reliance on inmates to plug its manpower gaps has caused Russia's prison population to plummet.

Source

Russia is running out of eligible population and using criminals to fight their war. They are being told to just fight for 6 months and then be free, but the reality is even if they make it alive to 6 months, they are not being released. Russia is now running out of criminals to send to the war.

Time to start a new recruitment program...

"Hey, you. You are guilty of crime. I heard you speak against our glorious leader. You go fight now."

Look`s like mobilization coming In Russia , as was predicted . Now that the sham election is over Putin will want to once again use the old Soviet tactic, send huge amount men to front, no matter at what cost ...

The Russian Navy accidentally targeted a Russian fishing trawler during military exercises in the Baltic sea , it's reported three people were killed in the strike and four others injured.

Another Russian oil refinery hit last night.

The attack in Samara region is the ninth in 12 days and is aimed at damaging Vladimir Putin’s economy and military supplies.

a reply to: Bishop2199

nuclear power plants have their own generators and electrical grids for this reason
they also have shutdown facilities in case of overloads , they can automatically shut down now at any dangerous increase in temperatures outside of normal operating levels.
after Chernobyl the safety and fail safes increased a lot

it should be ok

Internal electrical systems within nuclear power plant stations

safety of nuclear power reactors

Crimea is under heavy attack tonight from Ukrainian rockets with Sevastopol seemingly the focus.

Explosions in Sevastopol. Air raid sirens are sounding in the city.

The Kerch Bridge has been closed for traffic.

"Several aerial targets were shot down in Sevastopol," the so-called "governor" Razvozhayev said.

Crimean Telegram channels report hits in the headquarters of 810th Naval Infantry Brigade.

Local media also report hits on ships in Sevastopol.

No official information at the moment.
twitter.com...

Ukraine just targeted two large Russian landing ships at Crimea waters , namely the Yamal and Azov .

Officially confirmed!

In Sevastopol, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully hit the large landing ships Yamal and Azov, a communications center and several infrastructure facilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the General Staff reported.

OSINTtechnical reports that at least three Storm Shadow missiles hit the main communications center of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. According to the OSINTtechnical project, military units of missile gunners and FSB are also located there.
Last night, the most massive attack "for the entire time of the SMO" was carried out on Sevastopol, official Russian channels wrote. According to the occupation authorities of the peninsula, allegedly "the air defense system shot down several dozen missiles, including British Storm Shadow missiles, on their approach to the city."

The occupiers confirm that the main communications center of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was the target of the attack. According to Russian media, 34 military personnel were killed, 40 wounded, and three Su-27 airplanes were damaged at the Belbek airfield.

Anton Gerashchenko


Oh wow! 2 big ships. Both “Azov” and “Yamal” were destroyed. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has practically no landing ships left!....

a reply to: Kenzo

More woes for the Black Sea fleet.

More here:

BBC News - Ukraine war: Two Russian landing ships hit off Crimea, officials say
www.bbc.co.uk...

a reply to: Kenzo

In their home port, as well.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Another take on why Ukraine is attacking Russian oil refineries - not just to reduce stocks of refined petroleum products like diesel and gasoline, but also reduce chemical feedstocks needed for production of explosives

Chemicals like Toluene used to produce explosives like TNT (tri Nitro Toluene), ammonia needed for nitric acid for explosives, methanol for formaldehyde for RDX and HMX explosives

Ukraine is playing a long strategic game to cripple Russian weapon production

threadreaderapp.com...

I don't know about this, guys, we're getting a whole different take on the situation over here in South Africa. I think unless we're there, it's impossible to know what is really happening. The truth. I honestly can not fathom why we are getting two so very different updates. I mean it's oposite to what you guys are writing here. I will admit, I am not personally staying up to date, I find the whole thing a bit too "planned" I don't know how to explain what somebody like me, not following whats happening, sees. Its like they're actually all in cahoots, china, rus, ukraine, u.s. all of em, thats its all this giant illusion to cause as much death and destruction as they possibly can while trying to get more and more to join a side, when in reality there is no side, they all just want death and destruction, and maybe enough psyched up emotion for someone to push that final button. Ok, so, I'm not following this closely, cause I really don't want to feed energy into the chaos, but my hubby insists on keeping me updated daily on the main headlines, and what he is reading to me is very much the oposite of what you all are saying. I came here tonight, wondering what you all think about the latest, only to find, it's like you haven't heard the latest. So I am a little confused. You guys have no thoughts on today's events? At all? I read these last comments and its like you don't know! Guys, obviously I can't give you sources, hubby is asleep, but I know what I saw. How do you not know? Are we being fed different news from each other? I will try to remember in the morning for hubby to send me some links, but this just seems impossible! Which version is the lie? And is that going on regarding the news out of gaza too?

For reference; I saw update after update from diferent sources, it seems Putin has decided that the fastest most effective way to end it all is to go full scale. China has called for a meeting with Biden and Putin to see if he can't calm things down. Ping of all ppl! I am freaking out and you all seem oblivious to this news. I can't handle all this vicious war stuff, believe me, I don't want these daily updates, but hubby says I need to know. I disagree, but I'm now thoroughly freaking out, because it seems that this is it, ww3 has gone fullscale. Somebody tell me our news sources are lies and hubby is just on the receiving end of false propaganda ...

originally posted by: MrsPixie
I don't know about this, guys, we're getting a whole different take on the situation over here in South Africa.

You need to know/learn which reliable sources to read/listen to.

Talking about reliable sources; anyone know where Cav is?
Hopefully just one of his brief sojourns.

Yes, but how do we know which is true, for all we know your sources are the lies. We aren't involved up there, but u.s. is, stands to reason since you guys are involved, your news sources would be telling you, you're winning, right? Which is what you are telling me, while us that are not involved, we're getting a different story, our sources are also reliable. To assume the news we are getting is the false one, is downright dangerous, ... for you. not us, we're not up there. In fact we've been threatened with jailtime if merceneries decide to go up there of their own accord ...reply to: Annee

originally posted by: MrsPixie
Yes, but how do we know which is true, . . [/post]

There are some very intelligent and knowledgeable people on ATS.

Follow them long enough and you get the right answers.