Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: Bishop2199
Russians Warned to Flee Border Cities While They Still Can

"The group, made up of three different battalions known as the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and the Siberian Battalion, issued a statement Wednesday warning that it would be attacking shortly, urging Russians to evacuate."

Source

We are finally seeing the Russian people fed up with Putin and his "Military Action" against Ukraine.

Two of those three units are old, dating back to 2022, and they conducted incursions near Belgorod almost a year ago, in May 2023.
The third unit, the Siberian Battalion, is newer. The Siberians not only wish to remove Putin from power, like the other two units, but also want Siberians to have more autonomy from Russia. Conscription of Russian soldiers is heavier in the more remote regions of Russia, like Siberia, and they don't like that or other aspects of living under Russia's thumb. The Freedom of Russia legion says eventually they will march on Moscow, but Denys Davydov doesn't believe they have the resources to do that.

Apparently the latest incursions of Russians into Russia were part of a coordinated scheme to get Russian defenses activated including airborne assets like helicopters. Once the Russian helicopters were airborne, Ukraine launched a massive drone strike of ~85 drones directed at ~10 military and energy infrastructure targets. With friendly assets in the air, Russian air defenses had to distinguish friend from foe in deciding what to shoot down and the following video claims there were some friendly fire incidents. Russia apparently reported that all the drone strikes were prevented, however this video shows some fires at some oil refinteries so at least some of the 85 drones appear to have hit their targets, despite Russian denials.

The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian output of refined oil products was already down significantly in January 2024, and there have been more strikes since then so now it's likely down even more. These attacks are intended to reduce oil-related revenue and also the fuel supplies used directly for Russia's war effort in Ukraine. We know Russia stopped exporting refined oil products for 6 months, so the attacks are having an effect even if Russia tries to deny it. They don't deny their export ban on refined fuels.

Also claimed in this video is that the latest drones reached a new distance record, traveling 900 km in some cases to reach their target. (I don't know why the title seems to claim even more, unless they are adding the distances from multiple drones). It mentions the Mugin-5 Pro Drone, which apparently sells for $11000 from the company based in Hong Kong, but the video also says Ukraine is also mass producing drones this year.

$11,000 is even cheaper than the Iranian Shahed drones being used against Ukraine by Russia. You can also see what looks like a Mugin-5 Pro Drone in one of the videos of the attack, of which a short clip is played in the following video.

13 Mar: NEW RECORD! Ukrainians STRIKE THOUSANDS KM DEEP RUSSIAN TARGETS | War in Ukraine Explained

The timing of the "civil war" type invasion of Russia by three Russian batallions is also interesting timing, just before the Russian elections, coming up in the next few days I think. But I thought it was interesting to hear it may have been part of an effort to provide a big distraction while Ukraine launched 85 drones.

Russians Increasingly Reluctant to Fight for Their Country: Poll

The poll found that 20 percent of respondents in Russia were not willing to fight for their country, and 48 percent replied that they "don't know."

"But note this question was asked in a country where opposition to the war is a crime," Gallup said. This refers to legislation passed by Russian Parliament in March 2022 imposing jail terms of up to 15 years for intentionally spreading "fake" news about Russia's army. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment by email.

Source

You still have to wonder about the accuracy of a poll conducted in a country where it's a crime to be opposed to war.

Another Russian oil refinery has gone Bang today , the Pervy Zavod is the largest refinery in the Kaluga region which was reportedly hit by 3 Ukrainian drones although authorities say the drones were shot down and there was no damage to the infrastructure ... honest guv.

a reply to: gortex

"Pervy"?

I think we should be told....

a reply to: gortex

Looks like Ukraine going heavy against Russian POL facilities Russia had stopped exporting petroleum products several months ago and is experiencing shortages of refined petroleum products If Ukraine can knock out sufficient productive capacity can really put a hurting on the Russian economy

2 more Oil Refineries hit today this time in Russia's Samara region.

15 March Update

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev questioned the sovereignty of Latvia, a NATO member state, and threatened Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs following Medvedev’s March 14 call for the total elimination of Ukraine and Ukraine's absorption into Russia under Medvedev's “peace formula.”

French President Emmanuel Macron stated on March 15 that he is not ruling out sending Western troops to Ukraine but that the current situation does not require it.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast, and recent Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries reportedly caused a spike in Russian domestic oil prices.

Several Russians made limited attempts to disrupt the first day of voting in the Russian presidential election on March 15.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast, and recent Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries reportedly caused a spike in Russian domestic oil prices.

This in spite of the fact that Russia banned gasoline exports for 6 months already trying to keep domestic prices down.

"Several Russians made limited attempts to disrupt the first day of voting in the Russian presidential election on March 15."

I noticed there's a separate thread about that:

Brave Russians say NO to 'vote Vlad'

Belgorod region is under attack today as the Freedom Russia Legion target military equipment with rocket strikes following the warning they gave to civilians to evacuate a couple of days ago.

Good thread by Trent Telenko on X

The issue for Russian artillery going forward isn't the shells, it's the barrel life.


Trent Telenko X

When we get a 'square law' collapse in Russian barrel life is a good question. My gut says start looking in late June 2024 Regardless, we are seeing Lanchester's equations calling it in from the grave.

16 March Update

The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a series of successful drone strikes against three Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast on March 16.

The all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) stated on March 16 that it is continuing a “limited military operation” in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts and denied previous Russian claims about the RDK, Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion suffering heavy losses in raids in recent days.

Russian opposition outlet Sever Realii reported on March 16 that Russian authorities have opened at least 15 criminal cases across Russia for attempts to disrupt the election and sent at least two people to pre-trial detention centers.

Group of Seven (G7) countries issued a joint statement on March 15 warning Iran against transferring ballistic missiles or related technology to Russia.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Kenzo

Russians will keep using the pieces, but the accuracy will drop off significantly.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


How much accuracy will decrease with bad barrel ? Must be more difficult to hit Ukrainian artillery location with worn out barrels ?

Alexei Navalny supporters have carried out peaceful “Noon Against Putin” protests on the final day of voting , protesters were called on to attend polling station at noon and form queues to show the level of support Navalny still has , once inside they will either vote for another candidate of spoil their ballot.

Mad Vlad make up new plan to get men step in to meat grinder


The State Duma adopted in the first reading a bill on exemption from punishment for contract soldiers of the Northern Military District


The officials can make bogus claims easely to against anyone really , next they can give the offer to person ....to lift out the criminal prosecution agains the person if the person signs up to the special military operation . Naturally many signing to be in Ukraine wont come back, or may come back wounded badly. The bill is in process still, but knowing how Putin gets what he want , i doubt no one dare to stop it there.


They are also building Gulag 2.0 in places ....Neo-Stalinisk ride there....

After Puting started as leader there , many statues of Josef Stalin has been put in many locations in Russia, more than earlyer....

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


How much accuracy will decrease with bad barrel ? Must be more difficult to hit Ukrainian artillery location with worn out barrels ?

I don't have stats on that, I expect it will vary by barrel.

A disciplined army could test the worn guns to identify where they are throwing their shells and introduce corrections to account, at least somewhat, for the error. Kind of doubt the Russian army will do that for each gun.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Yeeh i doubt also they would do that ,specially in front line conditions .

The worn out barrel is one thing they did not expect when they started this war, it was supposed to be quick walk to Kiev , eliminate the Ukrainian leadership and take the country .

Another refinery hit by drones last night this time the Slavyansk oil refinery.

a reply to: gortex

As they say in Russia. "Red sky at night, refinerys alight".

Probably.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Kenzo

Russians will keep using the pieces, but the accuracy will drop off significantly.

Cheers

It's not so much accuracy as you can compensate with spotters. The problem is when your doing an artillery barrage. Several working to together all need the same muzzle velocity to work together. You can arrange your artillary so similar wear are grouped together. The problem becomes when you integrate new barrels with worn ones. Everyone ends up with different elevations and makes it near impossible to have them work together.

Continue to use a worn barrel and eventually it blows up often leading to the crew being injured. This is why Russia is having a problem with those north Korean rounds they are inconsistent throw in worn barrels and as the year goes on they will lose more and more artillery crews.

I'm sure Russia is sending barrels back to be relined but even this has limits. Just like trucks that buy tires that have retreads where you see an entire tire laying in the street same thing can happen to a barrel and when it does they tend to blow up.